美联储如预期在12月会议上降息25个基点，但对立降息的官员增至两人，显现进一步降息的门槛正在抬 高。与此同时，鲍威尔的表态并不强硬，加之美联储宣告将发动短期国库券（T-bills）购买操作，帮助 缓和了商场的忧虑。此前被充沛计入的"鹰派降息"预期出现回转，加剧了商场波动。展望未来，鉴于经 济与工作仍面临下行压力，估计美联储或将在2026年继续降息；但考虑到通胀黏性犹存，降息节奏趋于 放缓。1月或许按兵不动，下一次降息或在3月。 光控资本以为，9月以来，CPI继续上升主要依赖以下三个方面，一是菜价上升导致的食物项连累减 弱，二是扩内需方针下部分消费品和服务价格的上升，三是国际金价带动的黄金饰品价格上行。展望后 市，CPI上升需重视以下两个方面：一是随着南边本地菜逐渐上市、北方设备蔬菜供应增加，商场供需 紧张局面有望局部缓解，因而后续的蔬菜价格涨幅或许不及11月，考虑到猪肉对CPI的连累仍在延续， 鲜果价格增加较为平稳，食物CPI的连累或许略有放大。二是扩内需方针下部分消费品需求前置导致价 格出现走弱的态势，或需进一步扩展国补使用范围，并强化服务消费相关方针，才干更继续地带动消费 品和服务价格上升。考虑到"十五五 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main driving factor for the Bank of England's interest rate cut decision is domestic factors, with a downward trend in the interest rate path over time [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - There is increased uncertainty regarding when to take action on interest rates, with no predictions made for quantitative tightening (QT) decisions after October [1] - The message released to the market indicates that the situation is "balanced," leading to a re-evaluation of the central bank's policy stance [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The consequences of rising Consumer Price Index (CPI) are emphasized as a significant concern [1] - The employment market is showing signs of weakening, which may influence future monetary policy [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - The steepening of the yield curve is noted as a global phenomenon, with the UK government bond yield curve being a consideration for QT decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The rise in CPI is expected to suppress the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The market is aware that reaching trade agreements among major economies is not straightforward, and ongoing global trade tensions may continue to support gold prices [1] - CPI data is anticipated to rise, which should provide investors with more guidance on the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Silver prices are projected to reach $38 per ounce in the coming months, with market deficits and a weakening dollar being key factors for further price increases, potentially testing $40 per ounce [1]