在基础配置中，渣打建议超配美国、印度和中国股票，新兴市场债以及黄金，同时低配欧洲、英国和日 本股票。渣打仍然超配中国股票，预期定向的政策刺激以及与人工智能主题相关的强劲盈利增长，将为 中国经济提供强有力的支持。 具体到各类关键资产，债券方面，渣打视全球债券为核心持仓，偏好政府债多于公司债（即"利率债"而 非"信用债"）。渣打超配新兴市场美元政府债和新兴市场本币政府债，在发达市场债方面低配投资级和 高收益公司债。美债方面，渣打认为5-7年期债券能够在更高收益率与应对财政及通胀风险之间提供平 衡。 股票方面，渣打仍然超配全球股票，偏好美国和亚洲（除日本）股票。美股的韧性得益于盈利增长强 劲、美联储放宽货币政策等，支撑了经济软着陆预期。亚洲（除日本）股票的盈利增长有望位居主要地 区之首，其中中国股票有望受益于企业治理的改善，以及科技与创新的针对性政策支持。渣打将欧洲 （除英国）股票和日本股票下调至低配，维持低配英国股票。 渣打银行财富方案部日前发布《2026年全球市场展望》。渣打预计，随着全球贸易紧张局势缓和、主要 经济体将推进宽松的财政和货币政策，以及人工智能的蓬勃发展，风险资产预期将表现领先。展望2026 年， ...

Group 1: Core Outlook and Asset Allocation - The report anticipates a strong performance of risk assets by 2026, driven by improvements in micro fundamentals, accelerated AI capital expenditures, and a favorable policy environment, with global market trends influenced by the U.S. [1] - Recommendations include prioritizing equity investments, followed by credit and government bonds, with a preference for U.S. assets; overweighting equities (+5%), U.S. high-yield bonds (+3%), and agency mortgage-backed securities (+3%), while underweighting commodities (-4%), cash (-3%), and U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds (-4%) [1] Group 2: Global Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is expected to outperform other global markets, benefiting from positive operating leverage, pro-cyclical policies, and AI-driven efficiency improvements, with a target for the S&P 500 index at 7,800 points by the end of 2026 (14% increase from current levels) and a projected EPS compound annual growth rate of 14% from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The Japanese stock market is also viewed positively, supported by re-inflation and improvements in return on equity (ROE), with a target for the TOPIX index at 3,600 points (+7%); however, Europe and emerging markets (excluding India and Brazil) lack similar positive catalysts [1] Group 3: Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - G10 interest rates are expected to exhibit a "lower first, higher later" pattern, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to cut rates by 50 basis points in the first half of 2026, leading to a mid-term drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 3.75%, before rising to 4.05% by year-end [2] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is projected to decline to 94 in the first half of the year, followed by a rebound to 99 in the second half, with risk currencies like the Australian dollar and Swedish krona initially leading, while the euro and pound may struggle due to central bank rate cuts [2] Group 4: Credit and Securitized Products - Corporate credit is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures, a revival in merger and acquisition activity, and accommodative policies, with high-yield bonds (HY) outperforming investment-grade bonds (IG) in both the U.S. and European markets [2] - There is a preference for 5-10 year maturities to capture rolling yields, with the financial sector expected to perform better than the cyclical sector; securitized products are anticipated to benefit from regulatory easing in the U.S. and Europe, with recommendations to increase holdings in short-term products and BBB- rated channel loan securities [2] Group 5: Commodities - The report indicates that metals are expected to outperform energy, with Brent crude oil projected to stabilize around $60 per barrel; gold is highlighted as a preferred asset, supported by macro factors and strong physical demand, with a target price of $4,500 per ounce [3] - Among industrial metals, copper and aluminum are favored due to significant supply challenges, while in agricultural products, soybean prices are expected to reach a target of $11.7 per bushel over the next 12-18 months, surpassing corn prices at $4.7 per bushel [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced a slight decline due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, marking the first drop in 10 weeks as market risk appetite weakens amid easing global trade tensions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange settled at $4137.80 per ounce, down 0.28% [1] - The main gold futures contract price on the New York Commodity Exchange has cumulatively decreased by 1.79% this week [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors are taking profits, contributing to the decline in gold prices [1] - The easing of global trade tensions has reduced market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures down 0.00%, S&P 500 futures down 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.27% [1] - European indices show mixed performance, with Germany's DAX down 0.21%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.90%, France's CAC40 down 0.33%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.21% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 1.96% to $58.36 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.83% to $62.44 per barrel [3][4] Economic Insights - Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian has shifted from a bullish to a cautious stance on the US stock market, citing five emerging risks that could impact the S&P 500 index, including high valuations and signals of an impending bear market [5] - A survey indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with significant uncertainty regarding the interest rate path for next year [6] - Goldman Sachs warns that market estimates for US GDP may be overly optimistic due to data gaps during the government shutdown, which could lead to disappointing employment data [7] Company-Specific News - Netflix (NFLX.US) missed earnings expectations due to a tax dispute in Brazil, reporting a 17% revenue growth to $11.5 billion but an EPS of $5.87, below the expected $6.94 [8][9] - Texas Instruments (TXN.US) reported a 14% revenue increase to $4.74 billion but provided a weaker outlook for Q4, leading to an 8% pre-market drop [9] - Alliance West Bank (WAL.US) reported a 15.2% revenue increase to $938.2 million and a net profit surge of over 27%, alleviating market concerns [10] - Intuitive Surgical (ISRG.US) saw a 23% revenue increase to $2.51 billion, driven by strong growth in surgical procedures [10] - Barclays Bank (BCS.US) announced a £235 million provision for auto credit but raised its profit guidance, leading to a 4% pre-market increase [11] - AT&T (T.US) reported mixed Q3 results, with revenue of $30.7 billion slightly below expectations but exceeding new wireless subscriber growth forecasts [12] - Teck Resources (TECK.US) reported a nearly 20% increase in adjusted core earnings to CAD 1.17 billion, benefiting from rising metal prices [12] - Beyond Meat (BYND.US) experienced a significant stock price increase driven by a short squeeze, despite concerns over its fundamental business outlook [12]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to rise, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, global trade tensions, and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On the 15th, London spot gold prices reached a new high of $4200.23 per ounce during trading [1] - As of 15:10 Beijing time on the 15th, London spot gold was reported at $4200.14 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.4% [1] - New York gold futures for December were trading above $4200 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.32% [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical and economic uncertainties, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a surge in gold purchases by central banks of major economies, and increased holdings in gold ETFs have contributed to a more than 55% rise in international gold prices this year [1] - Analysts from Bank of America and Societe Generale predict that gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce by 2026, while Standard Chartered has raised its average gold price forecast for next year to $4488 per ounce [1]

Core Insights - Gold prices experienced a significant drop from a historical high of $4179 due to profit-taking by investors and short-term overbought conditions in the market [2] - The rebound from $4090 was supported by low-level buying, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among investors who view corrections as buying opportunities [2] - Fundamental factors supporting gold's long-term bullish trend, such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, global trade tensions, and strong central bank gold purchases, remain unchanged [2][3] Recent Influential Events - Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is the most critical factor affecting gold prices, with high expectations for rate cuts in October and December, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Ongoing global trade tensions, particularly those stemming from the Trump administration, are increasing economic uncertainty and driving safe-haven investments into gold [3] - Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East and other volatile regions, can reignite demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - Central bank gold purchases are at multi-decade highs, providing solid long-term support for gold prices and reinforcing bullish market sentiment [3] - The strength of the US dollar has a direct negative correlation with gold prices, influencing the market dynamics [3] Current Trading Strategy - The overall strategy is to maintain a bullish outlook while being cautious of short-term volatility [4] - Key support levels to watch are in the $4090 - $4100 range, which, if maintained, would indicate a healthy correction and present buying opportunities [4] - Short-term resistance is identified near the previous high of $4179, with a breakthrough potentially opening up price targets of $4200 - $4300 or higher [5] - Risk management is crucial, especially near historical highs where market volatility can increase significantly; recommendations include light positions and strict stop-loss orders [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in silver prices driven by global trade tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, while highlighting the caution advised by Goldman Sachs regarding the volatility and risks associated with silver investments [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On Monday, spot silver prices rose over 3% to reach $51.7 per ounce, marking a new historical high, although the increase later moderated to 2.36%. Year-to-date, silver prices have surged over 70%, significantly outpacing gold's 50% increase [1]. - Goldman Sachs indicated that private investment funds might drive silver prices higher in the medium term due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, similar to the support seen for gold prices [3]. Group 2: Investment Demand and Market Dynamics - Investment demand is identified as the primary factor driving the price increase of silver. Goldman Sachs' analysis shows that for every additional 1,000 tons of silver purchased, prices typically rise by approximately 1.6% [4]. - The scale of the silver market is about one-ninth that of gold, with gold's market size around $450 billion compared to silver's $50 billion. This disparity means that changes in investor positions can lead to greater price volatility and downside risks for silver [4][5]. Group 3: Risks and Supply Factors - Goldman Sachs highlighted potential risks that could lead to a recent pullback in silver prices. On the demand side, a temporary decline in ETF fund inflows could pressure silver prices. Historically, ETF inflows tend to accelerate during Federal Reserve rate cut cycles [6]. - On the supply side, delays in the return of silver from the U.S. due to investigations into potential tariffs on key minerals could slow the recovery of inventories at the London Metal Exchange [6]. Group 4: Structural Support and Industrial Demand - Unlike gold, silver lacks structural support from central bank demand, which raises concerns about its price stability. Goldman Sachs downplayed the long-term impact of industrial demand on silver prices [7]. - Although silver is used in solar panel production, the growth of the solar industry is slowing, and manufacturers are increasingly substituting silver with cheaper materials like copper [8].

Core Viewpoint - A significant global market downturn occurred on October 10, triggered by a strong statement from Trump that heightened trade tensions, leading to a sell-off across various markets [1] Market Reaction - Major U.S. stock indices experienced sharp declines, with the Dow Jones dropping approximately 500 points, the Nasdaq falling nearly 2%, and the S&P 500 index decreasing over 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks saw a decline of 4%, while the FTSE China A50 futures index fell more than 3% [1] - Global markets reacted similarly, with oil prices experiencing increased declines and European stock markets also dropping sharply towards the end of the trading session [1] Safe-Haven Assets - Gold, as a safe-haven asset, reached a new high during the trading session, indicating a flight to safety among investors [1] Sector Performance - U.S. rare earth concept stocks surged against the market trend, suggesting a specific sector benefiting from the overall market turmoil [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global market experienced a significant crash on October 10, triggered by a strong statement from Trump that heightened trade tensions, leading to widespread profit-taking across markets [2][16]. Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the Dow Jones dropping approximately 500 points, the Nasdaq declining nearly 2%, and the S&P 500 falling over 1% [2]. - The Nasdaq Composite Index opened at 6740.49, reaching a high of 6762.40 before closing at 6634.31, down 100.80 points or 1.50% [7]. - The Chinese concept stocks index fell by 4%, and the FTSE China A50 futures index dropped over 3% [9][10]. Sector Analysis - Technology stocks faced a collective downturn, with notable declines in major companies such as ARM (-6.38%), AMD (-6.05%), Qualcomm (-4.64%), and Micron Technology (-4.41%) [8]. - The market for rare earth stocks saw a counter trend, with Critical Metals (NASDAQ: CRML) surging by 23.62% [12][13]. Commodity and Alternative Assets - Oil prices experienced a significant drop, contributing to the overall market decline [11]. - Gold, as a safe-haven asset, reached a new high during the trading session [12].

Core Points - The U.S. stock index futures are collectively down due to ongoing risks of a government shutdown, with S&P 500 futures down 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.3%, and Dow futures down 0.2% [1][3] - The dollar is under pressure, and gold prices have reached a new historical high, reflecting market concerns over the potential government shutdown and global trade tensions [1][7] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with Bilibili up approximately 5%, Xpeng Motors up about 2%, and Alibaba up about 1% [1][3] - BHP's U.S. stock fell nearly 7% in after-hours trading [4] Market Performance - Asian stock markets showed mixed results, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.2%, the Seoul Composite down 0.2%, and the Vietnam VN Index down 1%, while the Singapore Strait Index and Malaysia Index both rose 0.4% [1] - The dollar index decreased by 0.15% to 97.79 [3][4] - Spot gold increased nearly 1% to $3868.8 per ounce, marking a 47% rise this year, potentially the largest annual increase since 1979 [7] - Brent crude oil fell by 0.5% to $66.73 per barrel [10]