4. 信贷与证券化产品：风险偏好回升，结构分化：企业信贷将受益于资本开支增加、并购活动复苏及政 策宽松，美国和欧洲市场均呈现高收益债（HY）跑赢投资级债（IG）的格局，偏好5-10年期品种以获 取滚动收益，金融板块表现优于周期板块；证券化产品受美欧放松监管提振，建议增持短期品种、下沉 至BBB-级渠道贷款证券，超配机构MBS相对投资级信贷，美国房价与住房活动维持区间波动。 5. 大宗商品：金属强于能源：原油供需平衡偏软，布伦特原油锚定60美元/桶；黄金为首选品种，宏观 因素与强劲实物需求支撑，目标价4500美元/盎司；工业金属中看好铜和铝，二者均面临显著供应挑 战；农产品中看好大豆价格，预计12-18个月目标价11.7美元/蒲式耳，高于玉米的4.7美元/蒲式耳。 6. 核心风险提示：AI投资周期突然终止、市场风险情绪过热、美国以外地区增长超预期、美联储政策 反应函数转变；此外，美国关税政策不确定性、全球贸易紧张局势、新兴市场财政失衡仍可能引发局部 波动。 1. 核心展望与资产配置主线：2026年风险资产将迎来强劲表现，核心驱动力包括微观基本面改善、AI 资本开支加速及有利政策环境，全球市场走势将受美国主导的正 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced a slight decline due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, marking the first drop in 10 weeks as market risk appetite weakens amid easing global trade tensions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange settled at $4137.80 per ounce, down 0.28% [1] - The main gold futures contract price on the New York Commodity Exchange has cumulatively decreased by 1.79% this week [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors are taking profits, contributing to the decline in gold prices [1] - The easing of global trade tensions has reduced market demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures down 0.00%, S&P 500 futures down 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.27% [1] - European indices show mixed performance, with Germany's DAX down 0.21%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.90%, France's CAC40 down 0.33%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.21% [2][3] - WTI crude oil increased by 1.96% to $58.36 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.83% to $62.44 per barrel [3][4] Economic Insights - Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian has shifted from a bullish to a cautious stance on the US stock market, citing five emerging risks that could impact the S&P 500 index, including high valuations and signals of an impending bear market [5] - A survey indicates that the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with significant uncertainty regarding the interest rate path for next year [6] - Goldman Sachs warns that market estimates for US GDP may be overly optimistic due to data gaps during the government shutdown, which could lead to disappointing employment data [7] Company-Specific News - Netflix (NFLX.US) missed earnings expectations due to a tax dispute in Brazil, reporting a 17% revenue growth to $11.5 billion but an EPS of $5.87, below the expected $6.94 [8][9] - Texas Instruments (TXN.US) reported a 14% revenue increase to $4.74 billion but provided a weaker outlook for Q4, leading to an 8% pre-market drop [9] - Alliance West Bank (WAL.US) reported a 15.2% revenue increase to $938.2 million and a net profit surge of over 27%, alleviating market concerns [10] - Intuitive Surgical (ISRG.US) saw a 23% revenue increase to $2.51 billion, driven by strong growth in surgical procedures [10] - Barclays Bank (BCS.US) announced a £235 million provision for auto credit but raised its profit guidance, leading to a 4% pre-market increase [11] - AT&T (T.US) reported mixed Q3 results, with revenue of $30.7 billion slightly below expectations but exceeding new wireless subscriber growth forecasts [12] - Teck Resources (TECK.US) reported a nearly 20% increase in adjusted core earnings to CAD 1.17 billion, benefiting from rising metal prices [12] - Beyond Meat (BYND.US) experienced a significant stock price increase driven by a short squeeze, despite concerns over its fundamental business outlook [12]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to rise, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, global trade tensions, and increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On the 15th, London spot gold prices reached a new high of $4200.23 per ounce during trading [1] - As of 15:10 Beijing time on the 15th, London spot gold was reported at $4200.14 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.4% [1] - New York gold futures for December were trading above $4200 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.32% [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Geopolitical and economic uncertainties, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a surge in gold purchases by central banks of major economies, and increased holdings in gold ETFs have contributed to a more than 55% rise in international gold prices this year [1] - Analysts from Bank of America and Societe Generale predict that gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce by 2026, while Standard Chartered has raised its average gold price forecast for next year to $4488 per ounce [1]

Core Insights - Gold prices experienced a significant drop from a historical high of $4179 due to profit-taking by investors and short-term overbought conditions in the market [2] - The rebound from $4090 was supported by low-level buying, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among investors who view corrections as buying opportunities [2] - Fundamental factors supporting gold's long-term bullish trend, such as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, global trade tensions, and strong central bank gold purchases, remain unchanged [2][3] Recent Influential Events - Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is the most critical factor affecting gold prices, with high expectations for rate cuts in October and December, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] - Ongoing global trade tensions, particularly those stemming from the Trump administration, are increasing economic uncertainty and driving safe-haven investments into gold [3] - Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East and other volatile regions, can reignite demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - Central bank gold purchases are at multi-decade highs, providing solid long-term support for gold prices and reinforcing bullish market sentiment [3] - The strength of the US dollar has a direct negative correlation with gold prices, influencing the market dynamics [3] Current Trading Strategy - The overall strategy is to maintain a bullish outlook while being cautious of short-term volatility [4] - Key support levels to watch are in the $4090 - $4100 range, which, if maintained, would indicate a healthy correction and present buying opportunities [4] - Short-term resistance is identified near the previous high of $4179, with a breakthrough potentially opening up price targets of $4200 - $4300 or higher [5] - Risk management is crucial, especially near historical highs where market volatility can increase significantly; recommendations include light positions and strict stop-loss orders [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in silver prices driven by global trade tensions and expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, while highlighting the caution advised by Goldman Sachs regarding the volatility and risks associated with silver investments [1][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - On Monday, spot silver prices rose over 3% to reach $51.7 per ounce, marking a new historical high, although the increase later moderated to 2.36%. Year-to-date, silver prices have surged over 70%, significantly outpacing gold's 50% increase [1]. - Goldman Sachs indicated that private investment funds might drive silver prices higher in the medium term due to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, similar to the support seen for gold prices [3]. Group 2: Investment Demand and Market Dynamics - Investment demand is identified as the primary factor driving the price increase of silver. Goldman Sachs' analysis shows that for every additional 1,000 tons of silver purchased, prices typically rise by approximately 1.6% [4]. - The scale of the silver market is about one-ninth that of gold, with gold's market size around $450 billion compared to silver's $50 billion. This disparity means that changes in investor positions can lead to greater price volatility and downside risks for silver [4][5]. Group 3: Risks and Supply Factors - Goldman Sachs highlighted potential risks that could lead to a recent pullback in silver prices. On the demand side, a temporary decline in ETF fund inflows could pressure silver prices. Historically, ETF inflows tend to accelerate during Federal Reserve rate cut cycles [6]. - On the supply side, delays in the return of silver from the U.S. due to investigations into potential tariffs on key minerals could slow the recovery of inventories at the London Metal Exchange [6]. Group 4: Structural Support and Industrial Demand - Unlike gold, silver lacks structural support from central bank demand, which raises concerns about its price stability. Goldman Sachs downplayed the long-term impact of industrial demand on silver prices [7]. - Although silver is used in solar panel production, the growth of the solar industry is slowing, and manufacturers are increasingly substituting silver with cheaper materials like copper [8].

（原标题：闪崩！今夜，无眠） 【导读】今夜，全球暴跌 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好啊，今晚出大事了，特朗普的一篇长文，直接干出了全球"黑色星期五"， 全市场闪崩！ 一起看看怎么回事。 10月10日深夜，全球市场突然闪崩。 美股三大指数直线暴跌，道指 跌约500点，纳指跌近2%，标普500指数跌超1%。 科技股集体暴跌。 中概股指数跌4%，富时中国A50 期货指数跌超3%。 全球市场也同步发生了跳水情况，石油价格跌幅扩大，欧洲股市尾盘跳水。 避险资 产黄金，盘中创下新高。 美股稀土概念股逆市暴涨。 消息面上，特朗普在社交平台发布一篇语气强硬 的带有"威胁"意味的长文，加剧了全球贸易的紧张局势，有分析师表示，市场对贸易协议的预期刚刚被 一扫而空，获利了结的资金全面出动。 编辑：嘉颖 校对：乔伊 审核：许闻 宗馥莉，突发！ ...

Core Viewpoint - The global market experienced a significant crash on October 10, triggered by a strong statement from Trump that heightened trade tensions, leading to widespread profit-taking across markets [2][16]. Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the Dow Jones dropping approximately 500 points, the Nasdaq declining nearly 2%, and the S&P 500 falling over 1% [2]. - The Nasdaq Composite Index opened at 6740.49, reaching a high of 6762.40 before closing at 6634.31, down 100.80 points or 1.50% [7]. - The Chinese concept stocks index fell by 4%, and the FTSE China A50 futures index dropped over 3% [9][10]. Sector Analysis - Technology stocks faced a collective downturn, with notable declines in major companies such as ARM (-6.38%), AMD (-6.05%), Qualcomm (-4.64%), and Micron Technology (-4.41%) [8]. - The market for rare earth stocks saw a counter trend, with Critical Metals (NASDAQ: CRML) surging by 23.62% [12][13]. Commodity and Alternative Assets - Oil prices experienced a significant drop, contributing to the overall market decline [11]. - Gold, as a safe-haven asset, reached a new high during the trading session [12].

9月30日，美股盘前，由于美国政府停摆风险仍未解除，投资者保持谨慎，美国三大股指期货集体下跌，标普500指数期货下跌0.2%，纳斯达克 100指数期货跌0.3%，道指期货下跌0.2%，美元承压，黄金价格再创历史新高。 中概股多数上涨，哔哩哔哩涨约5%，小鹏汽车涨约2%，阿里巴巴涨约1%。必和必拓美股夜盘跌近7%。 亚洲股市跌多涨少，日经225收跌0.2%，首尔综指收跌0.2%，越南VN指数跌1%，新加坡海峡指数上涨0.4%，马来西亚指数上涨0.4%。 商品方面，现货黄金上涨近1%至3868.8美元/盎司，白银下跌近1%，铜高位回调，原油下跌。 受美国政府关门风险的影响，美元承压，美元指数下跌0.15%至97.79。 核心资产走势如下： 纳斯达克100指数期货跌0.3%。由于美国政府关门的风险尚未解除，投资者仍较为谨慎。特朗普于美东时间周一与民主党人会面，但在达成避免 政府关门的协议方面尚未取得任何进展。议员们必须在周三凌晨0:01之前达成协议，否则将导致政府部分关门。 如果政府停摆，政府将停止发布经济数据，届时美联储将缺少制定利率路径的关键数据。 美国三大股指期货集体下跌，标普500指数期货下跌0.2%，纳斯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government's commitment to the ongoing execution of the tariff agreement with the United States is seen as a sign of stable economic cooperation between the two countries [1] Group 1: Agreement Execution - Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno expressed satisfaction with the adherence to the tariff agreement, highlighting that both governments have fulfilled their commitments [1] - The agreement aims to facilitate smoother trade flows and reduce friction in sensitive areas [1] Group 2: Global Trade Context - Analyst Eamonn Sheridan noted that Matsuno's comments come amid severe global trade tensions, particularly concerning tariffs related to strategic industries [1] - Matsuno's statements indicate Japan's intention to emphasize the predictability and reliability of the Japan-U.S. economic relationship, despite unresolved issues ranging from agricultural trade to supply chain security [1] Group 3: Market Reaction - Following Matsuno's remarks, the U.S. dollar experienced a short-term decline of approximately 20 points against the Japanese yen [1]