Core Viewpoint - The global DRAM market is experiencing a significant supply shortage for DDR4, leading to price increases, particularly for Nanya Technology, which has raised its prices by 11% to 16% in August and anticipates further increases in Q4 [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major DRAM manufacturers, including Samsung, Micron, and SK Hynix, have begun to reduce DDR4 production to focus on future opportunities in DDR5 and HBM, resulting in a supply gap of 10% to 15% for DDR4 in the second half of this year [2]. - Despite a challenging consumer market, DDR4 prices are rising significantly, with both spot and contract prices showing strong upward trends [2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Nanya Technology reported a consolidated revenue of NT$53.52 billion in July, marking a 31.4% month-over-month increase and a 94% year-over-year increase, the highest monthly revenue in three and a half years [3]. - The company has been operating at full capacity since June, and its pricing strategy is more competitive compared to other major DRAM manufacturers, contributing to its recovery from nine consecutive quarters of losses [3].

Core Viewpoint - The DDR4 spot prices have surged significantly, with a notable increase of over 20% in just three trading days, driven by strong demand and supply constraints in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - On June 17, the DDR4 16Gb (1G×16) 3200 spot price rose by 6.32%, while the DDR4 4Gb (512M×16) saw an increase of 8.77% [1]. - In the past two trading days, the DDR4 16Gb and 8Gb prices increased by 12.8% and 16.13%, respectively, compared to the previous week [2]. - The cumulative increase in DDR4 spot prices over the last three trading days has reached approximately 20% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The DRAM market typically exhibits a "buy high, sell low" behavior, leading to heightened buying activity as major manufacturers exit DDR4 production [1]. - The phenomenon of "hoarding" has become prevalent in the market due to urgent customer demand, exacerbating the tightness in the spot market [2]. - Although there is still some inventory available, the panic buying is making inventory management increasingly challenging for manufacturers [2].

Core Viewpoint - DDR4 memory prices have surged significantly, with a reported increase of approximately 50% in the latter half of May, driven by various factors including supply constraints and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - DDR4 spot market prices have experienced extreme fluctuations recently, with contract prices for 8GB and 16GB chips rising by 22% to 25% compared to early May [1]. - It is anticipated that DDR4 prices will continue to rise in the third quarter, with expected increases ranging from 10% to 20% [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Major manufacturers are shifting away from DDR4 production to focus on DDR5 and other higher-margin products, contributing to the price increase [1]. - Companies like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix have been pushed out of the DDR4 market by Chinese firms such as Changxin Storage, which offer lower prices [1]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing US-China tensions and market uncertainties have added upward pressure on DDR4 prices, with companies stockpiling DDR4 due to US tariff policies [2]. Group 4: Market Segmentation - Despite the rising prices, some smaller suppliers may continue to produce DDR4, targeting industrial and embedded platforms that still require DDR4, such as Intel's Ice Lake and AMD's Milan server platforms [3]. - The profitability window for DDR4 is closing rapidly as major manufacturers exit the market, but there remains a niche for smaller players [3].

Core Insights - TrendForce's latest survey indicates that the prices of Server and PC DDR4 modules are expected to rise in Q2 due to major DRAM suppliers reducing production and buyers stockpiling in advance, with price increases projected to exceed previous expectations [1][4]. Price Forecast - For Q2 2025, PC DDR4 prices are expected to increase by 13-18%, while Server DDR4 prices are projected to rise by 18-23%. In Q3 2025, PC DDR4 prices are forecasted to increase by 18-23%, and Server DDR4 prices are expected to rise by 8-13% [2]. Market Dynamics - The lifecycle of DDR4 has surpassed 10 years, with demand gradually shifting towards DDR5. Major suppliers plan to cease DDR4 production by early 2026, focusing on higher-margin products like HBM and DDR5. However, DDR4 will continue to be supplied for consumer DRAM due to ongoing demand [4]. Demand Drivers - The demand for General Server construction from cloud service providers (CSPs) remains robust, with increased storage server demand driven by AI applications. CSPs are also stockpiling in response to suppliers' end-of-life strategies, leading to an upward revision of Server DDR4 price increases from an initial estimate of 5-10% to 18-23% [4][5]. Supply Chain Adjustments - Recent international developments have prompted PC OEMs to request ODMs to increase production and expedite shipments to the U.S. market to mitigate uncertainties. The tightening supply-demand balance for Server DDR4 has led to a price increase for PC DDR4 due to supply constraints [5]. Future Outlook - The pricing trend for DDR4 contracts in Q3 will be influenced by supplier production strategies and tariff policies. There is potential for price increases to exceed expectations due to anticipated stockpiling demands as suppliers reduce output [5].