人民财讯9月24日电，根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新调查，由于三大DRAM原厂持续优先分配先进制程 产能给高阶Server DRAM和HBM，排挤PC、Mobile和Consumer应用的产能，同时受各终端产品需求分 化影响，第四季旧制程DRAM价格涨幅依旧可观，新世代产品涨势相对温和。预估整体一般型DRAM (Conventional DRAM)价格将季增8-13%，若加计HBM，涨幅将扩大至13-18%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest survey by TrendForce indicates that the shift in production capacity by major DRAM manufacturers towards high-end products, along with the end-of-life (EOL) status of older DDR4 and LPDDR4X products, is driving market demand for legacy products, which is expected to increase DRAM prices significantly in Q3 2025 [1] Group 1 - Major DRAM manufacturers are transitioning production capacity to high-end products [1] - DDR4 and LPDDR4X for PC/Server and Mobile applications are entering their product lifecycle end [1] - Increased market demand for older generation products is leading to proactive inventory stocking [1] Group 2 - Traditional peak season inventory buildup is contributing to price increases [1] - Conventional DRAM prices are projected to rise by 10% to 15% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025 [1] - Including HBM, the overall DRAM price increase is expected to be between 15% to 20% quarter-over-quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global DRAM market is entering a structural turning point, with major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and China's Changxin Storage planning to phase out DDR4 products and shift capacity towards DDR5 and high bandwidth memory (HBM) [2][3] Group 1: EOL Plans and Market Dynamics - Samsung will complete its final DDR4 chip orders by June 2025 and ship the last modules by mid-December 2025 [2] - SK Hynix plans to stop taking orders by October 2025 and complete final shipments by April 2026 [2] - Micron has notified customers that its DDR4 will enter EOL in June 2025, with shipments expected to cease in the first quarter of 2026 [2] - Changxin Storage aims to complete its last DDR4 shipments by Q4 2025, focusing future production on DDR5 [2] Group 2: Market Supply and Pricing Trends - The EOL actions by the top four suppliers are expected to create a supply-demand imbalance for DDR4, likely lasting until 2026 [3] - DDR4 spot prices have already surpassed DDR5 prices, with a peak difference of 30.3% noted in early June [3] - Historical trends suggest that this price inversion may persist for three to five months until demand for DDR4 significantly decreases [3] Group 3: Price Forecasts - TrendForce predicts that DRAM prices will rise significantly in Q3 2025, with increases of up to 45% driven by capacity reallocation and demand from AI servers [5] - DDR4 prices are expected to rise by 38% to 43% for PCs and 28% to 33% for servers due to supply constraints [6] - LPDDR4X is projected to increase by 23% to 28%, while GDDR6 prices may rise by 28% to 33% as suppliers shift focus to GDDR7 [7] Group 4: Geopolitical Factors - The PC DRAM market faces dual pressures from demand and geopolitical factors, with anticipated U.S. tariffs prompting OEMs to expedite orders [8] - A 25% tariff on all memory types from Japan and South Korea starting August 1 is expected to lead to significant price increases for PC DRAM [8]

Core Viewpoint - The general DRAM prices are expected to increase by 10% to 15% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025 due to shifts in production capacity and market demand for older generation products [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major DRAM manufacturers are shifting their production capacity towards high-end products [1] - The announcement of the end of life (EOL) for PC/Server DDR4 and Mobile LPDDR4X products has led to increased market demand for older generation products [1] Group 2: Price Forecast - The overall DRAM price increase, including High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), is projected to be between 15% to 20% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The traditional peak season for inventory buildup is contributing to the anticipated price rise [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in DDR4 DRAM spot prices, with increases of nearly 8% in a single day, indicates a significant market shift, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from OEM/ODM manufacturers [1][2]. Price Trends - DDR4 8Gb (1G×8) 3200 spot price rose from an average of $2.73 on May 30 to $3.775, marking a 38.27% increase in just half a month [2]. - Since March 31, the price has skyrocketed from $1.63 to nearly 1.32 times its original value [2]. - DDR4 16Gb (1G×16) 3200 spot price increased from $6.1 to $8.2, reflecting a 34.42% rise in June alone and over 1.07 times since March 31 [2]. Market Dynamics - Major manufacturers like Samsung and Micron are shifting focus to DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), leading to a reduction in DDR4 supply, which is contributing to the price surge [1][2]. - The current DDR4 prices have surpassed those of higher-spec DDR5, indicating a rare price inversion [1]. Company Performance - Nanya Technology and Winbond, key suppliers of DDR4, are expected to benefit from the rising prices, with Nanya's revenue heavily reliant on DDR3 and DDR4 [3]. - Nanya is reportedly increasing its investment in DDR4 production capacity, breaking industry norms to capitalize on the growing market opportunity [3]. - Memory IC design firms like Etron Technology and Gigabyte are also beginning to receive customer orders, suggesting a positive outlook for their operations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for Server and PC DDR4 modules is increasing, leading to a significant rise in contract prices for the second quarter of 2025, with expectations of higher growth than previously anticipated [1] Group 1: Price Increase - The price increase for Server DDR4 modules is projected to be between 18% to 23% quarter-over-quarter [1] - The price increase for PC DDR4 modules is expected to be between 13% to 18% quarter-over-quarter [1] Group 2: Market Factors - Major DRAM suppliers are gradually reducing the output of Server and PC DDR4 modules [1] - Buyers are actively stockpiling in anticipation of rising prices, contributing to the demand surge [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the price of Hynix DRAM (consumer-grade) chips has increased by approximately 10%+ [1] - According to market research firm DRAMeXchange, the fixed transaction price for general DRAM DDR4 8Gb (gigabyte) products used in personal computers has risen by 22.22% compared to March [1]