Amcor CDI (BHP Group Ltd (AMC share price in focusThe ASX:AMC ) share price is down around 17.6% since the start of 2025. The ASX:BHP ) share price is 37.6% above its 52-week low.Amcor develops and produces a broad range of packaging products including flexible packaging, rigid packaging containers, specialty cartons, and closures.The history of Amcor dates back to the 1860’s and the company now operates across more than 200 sites in 40 countries.Amcor are focused on innovation in the packaging space to mee ...

Group 1: Netwealth Group Ltd (NWL) - NWL share price has decreased approximately 10.1% since the beginning of 2025 [1] - As of 2024, Netwealth has over 140,000 account holders and manages over $88 billion in funds under administration (FUA) [1] - The company offers a user-friendly online platform that allows users to manage investments, track performance, and access reports [2] Group 2: Mineral Resources Ltd (MIN) - MIN is a diversified mining company focused on lithium and iron ore extraction in Western Australia [3] - The company provides mining and engineering services through its subsidiary, CSI Mining Services, across multiple Australian regions [3] - MIN's in-house engineering and construction capabilities differentiate it from competitors, allowing for greater control in product development [4] Group 3: Share Price Valuation - NWL shares currently have a price-sales ratio of 24.68x, above its 5-year average of 23.72x, indicating a potential increase in share price or a decline in sales [6] - MIN shares are trading at a price-sales ratio of 2.04x, which is lower than its 5-year average of 3.02x, suggesting a potential undervaluation [7]

Each week we run a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model on a company from our watchlist. This week’s pick: Broadcom Inc. (AVGO).ProfileBroadcom is one of the world’s leading semiconductor and infrastructure software companies, with dominant positions across custom AI accelerators, networking chips, wireless components, and mainframe software. The company benefits from deep integration with hyperscalers, telecom operators, and enterprise customers. Broadcom’s portfolio spans high-margin chipsets, mission-critica ...

Each week we run a DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) model on a company from our watchlist. This week’s pick: Walmart Inc. (WMT).ProfileWalmart Inc. is the world’s largest retailer, operating more than 10,500 stores under the Walmart and Sam’s Club banners across the U.S. and international markets. The company blends brick-and-mortar scale with a rapidly expanding e-commerce ecosystem that now includes Walmart+, marketplace sellers, advertising, and last-mile fulfillment.Walmart’s core retail model—high volume, ag ...

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA Corporation is a leading player in accelerated computing and is crucial for the AI revolution, with its data-center segment being the primary revenue driver [2] Group 1: Company Profile - NVIDIA is recognized as the global leader in accelerated computing, providing foundational hardware for AI [2] - The company's data-center segment, supported by Hopper and upcoming Blackwell GPU platforms, significantly contributes to its revenue and profits [2] - NVIDIA's ecosystem, including CUDA, software libraries, and networking (Mellanox), creates a strong competitive advantage [2] Group 2: DCF Analysis - The DCF model uses a discount rate of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [3] - Forecasted free cash flows (in billions USD) are projected to grow from $80.0 in 2025 to $120.0 in 2029, with a total present value of $373.8 billion [3] - The terminal value, calculated using a perpetuity growth model, is estimated at $1,766 billion, leading to a present value of $1,095 billion [3] - The enterprise value is calculated to be $1,468.8 billion [3] Group 3: Financial Metrics - NVIDIA has a net cash position with cash and equivalents at $53.99 billion and total debt at $10.60 billion, resulting in net debt of -$43.4 billion [4] - The equity value is calculated at $1,512.2 billion, with approximately 24.35 billion shares outstanding, leading to an intrinsic value per share of about $62 [4] Group 4: Market Position and Valuation - The current market price of NVIDIA is around $180, indicating a margin of safety of -66% compared to the DCF value [4] - Despite being a technology leader with strong revenue growth and pricing power, NVIDIA's stock is considered overvalued under conservative DCF assumptions [4][5] - For long-term investors, NVIDIA is seen as a high-quality investment, but the current price offers little margin of safety [5]

Core Insights - The Ethereum Valuation Dashboard estimates Ethereum's fair value at $4,747.4, indicating a 56.9% undervaluation compared to its current trading price of $3,022.3 [1] - The dashboard employs eight distinct valuation models, combining traditional finance methods with crypto-specific metrics to assess Ethereum's intrinsic value [2][3] Valuation Models - Traditional finance methods used include Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio set at 25x, and Revenue Yield analysis [2] - Crypto-specific metrics include Total Value Locked (TVL) Multiple, Staking Scarcity, Market Cap to TVL Fair Value, Metcalfe's Law, and Layer 2 ecosystem valuation [3] Valuation Results - Metcalfe's Law suggests the highest valuation of $9,583.6, indicating Ethereum is 217.1% undervalued, while the DCF model estimates $9,067.8, reflecting a 200% undervaluation [4] - The P/E Ratio model indicates Ethereum is 70.2% overvalued at $899.2, and Revenue Yield suggests a 52.4% overvaluation at $1,438.8 [4] Composite Fair Value Calculation - The composite fair value of $4,747.4 is derived by weighting each model based on reliability, with high-reliability models being nine times more influential [5] - The analysis yielded five buy signals, one hold, and two sell signals across the eight models, with high reliability models including MC/TVL Fair Value, Metcalfe's Law, DCF (Staking Yield), P/E Ratio, and Revenue Yield [5] Market Data Overview - Current market data shows Ethereum priced at $3,022.3, with a market cap of $365.4 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $21 billion [7] - Ethereum's price is 38.8% below its all-time high of $4,946.1, with a market dominance of 16% and a year-over-year drop of 24.7% in the ETH/BTC ratio [7]

Core Insights - Amazon.com, Inc. is a leading global technology and retail platform, excelling in e-commerce, cloud computing, and digital advertising, while also venturing into AI infrastructure and subscription services [2][3] Financial Performance - Amazon generated over $670 billion in annual revenue, with a cash balance exceeding $100 billion and improving free cash flow, indicating strong financial health and a competitive advantage across various industries [3] DCF Analysis - The DCF model indicates a total present value of forecasted free cash flows of $164.1 billion, with a terminal value of $957.1 billion, leading to an enterprise value of $786.6 billion [4] - After accounting for net debt of $29.7 billion, the equity value is calculated at $756.9 billion, resulting in an intrinsic value per share of approximately $71 [5] Market Valuation - The current market price of Amazon shares is around $249, suggesting a margin of safety of -72%, indicating that the stock is trading significantly above its intrinsic value [5] - Despite Amazon's strong market position and growth potential, the high market valuation reflects expectations of robust growth and profitability in the coming decade [5]

Core Viewpoint - American Express Company (AXP) demonstrates strong free cash flow generation and maintains a premium brand position in the global payments sector, although its stock currently trades above intrinsic value based on conservative growth assumptions [5][8]. Company Profile - American Express is a leading integrated payments company, offering charge and credit card products, travel-related services, and global merchant processing, benefiting from a powerful brand and affluent customer base [2]. - The company focuses on premium cardholders and employs disciplined risk management, resulting in high returns on equity and steady growth in fee-based revenue [3]. DCF Analysis - Forecasted Free Cash Flows (in billions USD) for the next five years are projected as follows: - 2025: $13.0B - 2026: $13.9B - 2027: $14.8B - 2028: $15.7B - 2029: $16.6B - Total Present Value of Free Cash Flows is calculated at $55.4B [4]. - Terminal Value, using a perpetuity growth model with a 2029 FCF of $16.6B, is estimated at $244.3B, leading to a Present Value of Terminal Value of $151.7B [4]. - The Enterprise Value is determined to be $207.1B, with a Net Debt of $10.5B, resulting in an Equity Value of $196.6B and an Intrinsic Value per Share of approximately $280 [4][6]. Current Valuation - The current stock price is around $358, indicating a Margin of Safety of -28% compared to the DCF-derived intrinsic value [7]. - The company holds Cash & Equivalents of $40.6B and Total Debt of $51.1B, leading to a Net Debt of $10.5B [6]. Conclusion - While American Express exhibits stable profitability and a growing digital ecosystem, it is currently not considered a deep-value opportunity as its stock trades above intrinsic value, warranting monitoring for potential pullbacks [5][8].

Core Insights - Meta Platforms, Inc. is a leading social technology company with a diverse app portfolio and a strong presence in digital advertising, focusing on AI and metaverse investments [2][3] - The company has transitioned from user growth to efficiency and profitability, achieving record margins and free cash flow while investing in long-term projects [3] - The DCF analysis indicates an intrinsic value per share of approximately $333, while the current market price is around $667, suggesting a significant margin of safety [5][6] Company Profile - Meta operates a family of apps including Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger, with over 3 billion users [2] - The company is heavily investing in AI-driven engagement and virtual reality, positioning itself for future growth [2] Financial Analysis - DCF inputs include a discount rate of 10% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [4] - Forecasted free cash flows from 2025 to 2029 show a total present value of $218.9 billion, with a terminal value of $943.4 billion leading to an enterprise value of $813.9 billion [4] - Meta has a net cash position of $28.8 billion, resulting in an equity value of $842.7 billion [5] Valuation Insights - The intrinsic value per share is calculated at approximately $333, while the current price is about $667, indicating a 50% margin of safety [5] - The market seems to be pricing in expectations of sustained double-digit growth and further operational leverage [6] - Despite being a strong long-term investment, the current valuation does not present a deep-value opportunity [6]

Core Viewpoint - UBS analyst Jay Sole believes Deckers Outdoor (DECK.US) is "significantly undervalued," with a potential stock price increase of approximately 53% [1] - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock, highlighting that the performance of Hoka and UGG brands is expected to exceed expectations, allowing investors to recognize Deckers Outdoor's potential for high single-digit to low double-digit compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in sales and earnings per share (EPS) growth [1] Market Expectations - The market perceives Deckers Outdoor's guidance for Q2 FY2026 as conservative, with HOKA sales growth projected at 11%, which is 200 basis points below market expectations [2] - UBS argues that the company's previous higher growth statements were based on "excluding tariff impacts" rather than formal guidance, suggesting an upward revision in growth expectations when adjusted for tariffs [2] - Historically, Deckers Outdoor's final annual EPS has averaged about 17% higher than its Q2 guidance midpoint over the past four years, indicating potential for exceeding current forecasts [2] Short-term Outlook - For Q2 FY2026, Deckers Outdoor reported a revenue increase of 9.1% to $1.4931 billion, with EPS of $1.82, surpassing market expectations by $0.21 [3] - The gross margin was 56.2%, exceeding market expectations by approximately 200 basis points, while operating margin stood at 22.8% [3] - HOKA brand sales grew by 11.1%, and UGG brand sales increased by 10.1% [3] - The company accelerated its share repurchase program to $282 million in Q2, up from $183 million in Q1, indicating potential for EPS upside [3] Mid-term Growth Drivers - UBS anticipates HOKA's direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales will return to low double-digit growth by FY2027, driven by expansion in training shoes, lifestyle products, and international markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region [4] - The increase in high-margin DTC business and scale effects for HOKA are expected to push EBITDA margins close to 23% by FY2030, although some gains may be offset by tariff pressures [4] - The discounted cash flow (DCF) model suggests that the market currently implies a low single-digit CAGR for EPS over the next five years, while UBS estimates it to be around 9%, indicating valuation upside potential [4] Various Scenarios and Target Prices - Base case scenario: Target price of $157, with a five-year EPS CAGR of approximately 9%, recovery in HOKA's U.S. DTC and lifestyle business, and gradual tariff reductions [5] - Optimistic scenario: Target price of $239, assuming faster expansion of HOKA DTC, UGG evolving into a year-round brand, and an operating margin of about 25.5% by FY2030 [6] - Pessimistic scenario: Target price of $48, considering weak U.S. consumer spending, slower market share growth for HOKA, increased promotional activity, and a contraction in operating margins [6]