财通策略&多行业——2026 年 4 月金股 分析师 徐陈翼 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030003 xucy@ctsec.com 联系人 常瑛珞 changyl@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《【财通策略徐陈翼团队】一季报全景前 瞻——4 月市场策略》 2026-03-29 2. 《医药央企引领高分红——瞭望国资系 列 6》 2026-03-25 3. 《回望现金流元年——自由现金流系列 研究 1》 2026-03-23 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 证券研究报告 月度金股 / 2026.03.31 ❖ 引言：海外地缘冲突持续，大宗商品价格震荡冲高，A 股市场波动率放大，叠 加即将迎来的业绩密集披露期，一季报有何前瞻展望、市场方向如何抉择？ ❖ 伊朗冲突的终局场景假设和对资本市场影响。后续展望看，短期仍然以打促 谈，未给双方台阶前战局或难好转；考虑特朗普耐心和最后一波短期手牌，大 概率在 4 月出军事层面结果（1、持续时间已较长，2、自身弹药压力，3、或 存外交压力），和谈结果会更靠后（更可能在军事结果和访华结果后）。回顾历 史地缘冲突的短期影响，黄金+原油受避险驱动上涨，A 股+美股 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has significantly impacted global inflation and economic conditions, extending the duration of high inflation rather than initiating a new round of global reflation [5] - The liquidity environment has tightened due to the conflict, increasing pressure on monetary policy across major economies, which has affected asset pricing through interest rates and stock market performance [5] - The report suggests a "HALO PLUS" strategy for asset allocation, focusing on defensive cash flow and offensive low-crowding growth sectors, particularly in coal, utilities, and construction for defense, while targeting commercial aerospace, batteries, and military themes for growth [6] Group 1: Impact of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict - The conflict has pushed inflation in Europe and the U.S. from around 6% to approximately 10% over six months, maintaining a high inflation rate of over 3% for nearly two years [19][20] - Japan's inflation, initially low, has risen due to energy price shocks, with CPI remaining above 2% for an extended period, indicating a different inflationary dynamic compared to the U.S. and Europe [20] - China's CPI has been less affected, primarily driven by structural price disturbances rather than a sustained inflationary trend [20] Group 2: Historical Inflation Experiences - Historical periods of stagflation in China, such as from June 2007 to February 2008 and January 2010 to July 2011, show that early stagflation phases are characterized by high commodity prices and resilient growth, with a shift to valuation and earnings certainty logic as tightening occurs [11][14] - In the 2007-2008 period, upstream cyclical sectors significantly outperformed, with coal prices rising by 49%, chemicals by 46%, and non-ferrous metals by 44%, reflecting strong demand and price increases [15][16] - The 2010-2011 period saw a market shift where defensive consumption sectors and small-cap growth stocks outperformed as inflationary pressures peaked and monetary tightening began [17][18]

当下为何重视"HALO PLUS"策略？20260315 摘要 中东局势通过油价传导至美国 CPI，若油价达 120 美元/桶，2026 年 CPI 或升至 6%，将阻碍美联储降息进程。 美国流动性面临多重风险：沃什"降息促缩表"政策倾向、2026 年下 半年再通胀压力、美债长期需求走弱及日元套息平仓压力。 海外流动性收紧或导致 AI 大厂融资受阻，传导至国内算力产业链订单下 修，TMT 板块面临高回撤风险。 "HaloPlus"策略建议配置高现金流、重资产、低淘汰率的非 AI 资产 （煤炭、石化、建筑、交运）以对冲宏观波动。 "Plus"端布局低拥挤度成长方向：低空经济（拥挤度 9%）、锂电 （<30%）、商业航天（<50%），其利率敏感性低于 AI 板块。 中东冲突升级威胁霍尔木兹海峡能源通道，全球 20%石油供应受挑战， 或重启"通胀上修、降息推迟、流动性收紧"传导链条。 流动性预警指标显示风险：SOFR-FFFR 利差持续走阔，比特币价格自 2025Q4 走弱，显示全球美元资金面边际趋紧。 Q&A 当前市场对后市的看法存在哪些分歧，以及贵司核心的投资策略是什么？ 当前市场观点主要分为两类。一类是偏好成 ...