业 研 究 社会服务 关注服务消费结构性机会，及春节旺季珠宝行情 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 文旅：元旦假期出行链数据超预期。海南离岛免税方面，元旦假期期 间，海口海关共监管离岛免税商品销售 44.2 万件，同比增长 52.4%；购物 人数 8.35 万人次，同比增长 60.6%；购物金额 7.12 亿元，同比增长 128.9%。 旅游出行方面，经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，元旦假期 3 天，全国国内 出游 1.42 亿人次，国内出游总花费 847.89 亿元，建议关注四季度冰雪游旺 季公司长白山、大连圣亚，寺庙游标的九华旅游、峨眉山 A 等。 美护：k 型消费趋势明显，关注高端美妆品牌第三空间社交与情绪溢 价继续承接高端消费复苏，年轻圈层轻医美妆械合一产品需求扩容与 OTC 即时零售渠道渗透率提升，专业护肤品牌或有结构性机会。据久谦平台数 据，2025 年 1-12 月美妆国内线上（天猫+抖音）销售额约为 2170.8 亿元， 同比增速 6.1%，其中 2025 年 12 月销售额约为 192.77 亿元，同比增速- 0.4%，环比增速为-30.2%。 行 社会服务 2026 年 01 月 23 日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in fresh milk prices and the high production capacity in the dairy industry have led to an oversupply pressure. However, Mengniu's diversified product structure allows it to demonstrate resilience in the industry, capturing emerging channel potentials and B-end professional dairy product growth spaces [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Mengniu reported a revenue decline of 6.9% to 41.57 billion yuan, while operating profit increased by 13.4% to 3.54 billion yuan. Despite a slight decrease in sales and overall prices, the gross profit margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 41.7% due to a drop in raw milk prices [1][2]. - The operating profit margin also grew by 1.5 percentage points to 8.5%, with profit margins across liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, and cheese all showing improvement [1][2]. Product Performance - Mengniu's liquid milk, milk powder, ice cream, and cheese segments generated revenues of 32.1917 billion, 1.6533 billion, 3.8785 billion, and 2.1143 billion yuan, respectively. The liquid milk segment, particularly the ambient milk, faces significant growth pressure, while online sales of ice cream, cheese, and infant formula have seen triple-digit growth [2][5]. - The fresh milk business grew by over 20% in the first half of the year, significantly outperforming the industry. Key products like Daily Fresh and HMO children's nutrition milk cater to specific consumer needs [5][12]. Market Trends and Strategies - Mengniu is capitalizing on the K-shaped consumption trend by launching high-end products and focusing on quality-price ratio to meet diverse consumer demands. The introduction of the high-end organic milk product coincides with the 20th anniversary of the Tetra Pak brand [2][4]. - The company is also enhancing its marketing strategies through collaborations with popular media and leveraging IP marketing to boost brand visibility and sales [5][10]. Industry Challenges - The dairy industry faces challenges such as a significant reliance on imports for solid dairy products and high-value raw materials, with 2022 imports reaching approximately 2.77 million tons, equivalent to about 17 million tons of raw milk [13][14]. - The industry is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, insufficient product diversification, and a lack of resilience in the supply chain, which are critical areas for future development [13][14].