社会服务 2025 年 11 月 23 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 社会服务 沪深300 相关研究报告 《大麦国际打通国内外演出闭环，户 外露营烧烤迎金秋旺季—行业周报》 -2025.11.16 《视频播客成为内容平台增长新曲 线，海南离岛免税新政成效初显—行 业周报》-2025.11.9 《南美/中东非潮玩渗透空间广阔，补 贴收缩茶咖龙头强势增长—行业周 报》-2025.10.26 锅圈蹲苗后加速开店，10 月潮玩品牌表现分化 ——行业周报 | 初敏（分析师） | 李睿娴（分析师） | 叶彬慧（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | liruixian@kysec.cn | yebinhui@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522080008 | 证书编号：S0790525020004 | 证书编号：S0790124070053 | 旅游/潮玩：携程 2025Q3 业绩稳健优秀，10 月潮玩线下店效稳增 携程 2025Q3 实现 18 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights the launch of the MAISEAT platform by Damai International, which connects domestic and international performance services, enhancing the ticketing experience for global users [13][15] - The camping economy in China is projected to reach a core market size of CNY 213.97 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 60.4%, indicating significant potential for outdoor activities [18][22] - The advertising industry is undergoing a transformation towards AI-driven personalized marketing, with major companies like Google and Meta adopting advanced AI advertising engines [30][32] Summary by Sections 1. Offline Entertainment - Damai International has launched a global performance service platform, MAISEAT, which offers ticketing services for various events in multiple languages and payment options [13][15] - The Asian market for online ticketing is expected to grow rapidly, benefiting from increased middle-class consumption and government support for music and sports tourism [15][17] 2. Camping and Barbecue - The camping economy is expected to grow significantly, with the core market projected to reach CNY 213.97 billion by 2024, driven by a growing interest in outdoor lifestyles [18][22] - The barbecue market is also expanding, with an expected size of CNY 316.2 billion by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 12% from 2024 to 2029 [25][20] 3. AI and Advertising - The advertising industry is shifting towards AI-driven models, enhancing targeting and efficiency, with Google and Meta leading the way in adopting AI technologies [30][32] - The adoption rates for AI advertising products have surged, with Google's AI engine seeing a rise from 2% in Q4 2021 to 59% in Q4 2024 [30][32] 4. E-commerce and Beauty Care - The Double Eleven shopping festival in 2025 saw a robust performance across e-commerce platforms, with total sales reaching CNY 16,191 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [39][43] - Beauty care categories performed steadily, with Tmall maintaining a strong market position, particularly in high-end brands [49][51]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Consumer Sector - The consumer sector has shown a strong rebound after a previous correction, primarily due to a low base effect [2][20] - Companies like Jinjiang, Shou Tour, and others have been recommended as key investment targets [2] Duty-Free Industry - China Duty Free Group (CDFG) has reached a two-year high in stock price, benefiting from favorable policies and a low base effect, with customs data showing a year-on-year growth of 20%-30% in early November [1][4] - The expected valuation for CDFG in 2026 is around 4.8 billion, indicating potential for further growth despite high valuations [4] Hotel Sector - The hotel sector is experiencing a slowdown in supply expansion while demand is increasing, with expectations of a year-on-year positive change by 2026 [5] - Jinjiang and Shou Tour have shown improved performance, with Jinjiang's decline narrowing to just over 2% in Q3 [5] New Consumption in Hong Kong - Companies like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold are highlighted as having relatively low valuations, making them attractive investment opportunities [6] - Despite potential deviations in expected growth for 2026, the new consumption sector in Hong Kong remains under 20 times valuation, suggesting room for growth [6] Restaurant and Tea Beverage Sector - The restaurant sector is currently facing low expectations and stock prices, but October saw improvements in same-store sales [7] - The tea beverage sector has shown resilience, with leading companies achieving single to double-digit growth, making them worthy of attention [8] Key Company Insights Recommended Companies - **Gu Ming**: Achieved over 20% same-store GMV growth in Q3, plans to open over 3,000 new stores next year [3][8] - **Mi Xue Ice City**: Rapid growth in domestic and credit card stores, with plans to open around 4,000 new stores next year [3][8] - **Xiao Tai Yang**: Plans to open 2,000 new stores next year, focusing on cost optimization for profit growth [3][8] - **Guo Quan**: Exceeded same-store growth expectations in Q3, with plans to open at least 2,000 new stores next year [3][8] Healthcare and Hygiene Products - Recommended companies in the hygiene sector include Lu Shushi and Stable Medical, both of which have strong market positions and reasonable valuations [9] - Stable Medical is expected to achieve around 1.05 billion in revenue this year, with a projected 20% growth next year [12] Beauty and Personal Care - Recommended companies include La Fang Jia Hua and Juzi Biological, focusing on collagen-related products [13][14] - La Fang Jia Hua is expected to achieve over 1.2 billion in revenue this year, with a growth rate exceeding 30% [14] Additional Insights - The overall sentiment in the consumer sector is currently low, but many companies still have upward valuation potential [19][20] - The duty-free and hotel sectors are showing signs of recovery, with potential for further growth driven by favorable policies and improved consumer sentiment [1][5][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the social services industry [1] Core Insights - Video podcasts are emerging as a new growth curve for content platforms, with significant increases in consumption time and user base [4] - The new duty-free policy in Hainan is showing initial positive effects, with notable increases in shopping amounts and customer spending [14][15] - The sleep health industry in China is experiencing steady growth, driven by consumer preferences for high-quality bedding products [5] Summary by Sections Duty-Free and Trendy Toys - The new duty-free policy in Hainan has led to a 34.8% year-on-year increase in shopping amounts per person, with a 30% increase in average spending [15] - Sanrio's revenue for FY2026Q2 increased by 32% year-on-year, with significant growth in various regions, particularly in Japan and Asia [23][27] - Bandai's revenue for FY2026Q2 reached 343.4 billion yen, a 3.8% increase year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 13.1% due to increased development costs [53][54] Video Podcasts - Bilibili's video podcast consumption time reached 25.9 billion minutes in Q1 2025, a growth of over 270% year-on-year, with user numbers exceeding 40 million [4] - The domestic podcast user base is projected to surpass 150 million by 2025, reflecting a growth of 43.6% year-on-year [4][24] Sleep Health Industry - The market size of China's sleep health industry grew from 261.63 billion yuan in 2016 to 495.58 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.6% [5] - Consumers are increasingly recognizing the importance of bedding products for improving sleep quality, with a significant rise in the frequency of replacing bedding items [5][13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The introduction of new tax policies for gold is expected to drive market share towards leading brands in the medium to long term. The new tax policy exempts value-added tax for standard gold transactions, which may lead to increased costs for non-investment gold products, ultimately raising retail prices and potentially suppressing consumer demand in the short term. However, this policy is anticipated to regulate the industry and strengthen the competitive advantage of compliant leading brands [5]. - Domestic beauty brands are beginning to establish a presence on video platforms, with significant growth in the social e-commerce sector. The GMV of WeChat mini-programs is expected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan in 2025, with social e-commerce accounting for over 50% of total transactions. Brands that leverage this platform effectively may maintain competitive advantages [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding new consumer narratives shaped by younger generations, suggesting a focus on high-quality domestic brands in beauty, gold jewelry, trendy toys, and tea beverages [22]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector showed varied performance, with the beauty and personal care sector declining by 3.10%, while the retail index increased by 0.31% during the week of November 3 to November 7, 2025 [8]. Key Industry Data - In September, retail sales for clothing and textiles increased by 4.7%, cosmetics by 8.6%, and gold and silver jewelry by 9.7%. However, beverage retail sales saw a decline of 0.8% [12][16]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality domestic brands with strong innovation in beauty, such as Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei; leading brands in traditional gold jewelry favored by younger consumers, such as Laopu Gold and Chaohongji; companies with successful IP creation and operation experience in trendy toys, like Pop Mart; and strong tea beverage brands with extensive market coverage, such as Mixue Group and Guming [22].

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The core investment strategy emphasizes growth first, with supply and demand clearing leading to a turning point. The white wine sector is accelerating its clearing process, while consumer goods show strong resilience [2] - The white wine market is experiencing a significant adjustment, with sales bottoming out and inventory clearing accelerating. The current adjustment cycle is longer compared to previous cycles, indicating a U-shaped recovery rather than a V-shaped one [2] - Beer and beverage sectors are stable, with beer prices and sales remaining steady. The beverage industry shows strong resilience, particularly among leading brands driven by major products [2][3] Group 2: Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector is stabilizing, with certain industries like food ingredients and health products still in a growth phase. There is a notable divergence within the sector, with seasoning products performing relatively well [3] Group 3: Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty and personal care industry is witnessing a stable demand environment, with a slight recovery in foreign investment. The cosmetics retail sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.9% in the first nine months of 2025, slightly lagging behind the overall retail market [7] - The brand landscape is changing, with domestic brands experiencing a slowdown in replacement trends, while foreign brands like L'Oréal and Estée Lauder are recovering in the Chinese market [7] Group 4: Social Services and Retail - The service consumption sector is expected to benefit from new policies aimed at expanding service consumption, with education and tea/coffee sectors showing significant growth potential [10] - Emotional value and experiential consumption are driving rapid growth in certain segments, particularly in the IP toy industry, which is still in a high growth phase [11] Group 5: Home Appliances - The home appliance industry is transitioning to a post-subsidy era, with domestic demand recovering slowly. The industry is expected to undergo significant consolidation before stronger market leaders emerge [15] - Companies with advantageous overseas layouts and those actively seeking business model transformations are expected to perform well [16] Group 6: Agriculture - The pet market is experiencing robust growth, with domestic brands gaining traction. The pet food market is steadily growing, driven by increased consumer willingness to spend on pets [26] - The planting sector is focusing on innovation, particularly in seed development and specialty crops [26] Group 7: Pharmaceuticals - The pharmaceutical industry is seeing opportunities in innovative drugs, particularly in oncology and metabolic fields, with a focus on next-generation treatments [29][30] - The demand for CXO services is gradually recovering, with a focus on performance certainty in the domestic market [31] Group 8: Banking - The banking sector is expected to see stable performance in 2026, with net profit growth driven by wealth management and retail lending [67][68] - The focus is on identifying banks with strong growth potential and those that can leverage retail and international business opportunities [62][69]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the fund manager of QuanGuo Fund, Sun Wei, has made adjustments to the portfolio structure of the QuanGuo Consumption Opportunity Fund in the third quarter, slightly increasing equity positions and making minor adjustments to the holdings [1] - In terms of industry allocation, the fund increased its exposure to the beauty care, trendy toys, and gaming sectors while reducing allocations in industries closely related to overall performance [1] - In the high-end manufacturing sector, the fund increased its allocation to the lithium battery supply chain, anticipating positive changes in demand as the industry approaches a turning point [1] Group 2 - As of the end of the third quarter, the fund's stock investment in Hong Kong stocks accounted for 24.77% of the net asset value, showing little change from the previous quarter [2] - The top holdings include Tencent Holdings at 4.96% and Ningde Times at 4.92%, with new consumer brands like Bubble Mart at 3.01% and Mao Ge Ping at 2.86% also featured [2] - In the lithium battery supply chain, besides Ningde Times, Tian Ci Materials has entered the top ten holdings with a share of 2.20% [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, with a focus on new consumption sectors such as beauty care, IP derivatives, and gold jewelry [5][31]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the overall retail sales in September 2025 reached 4.2 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.05%, which is below the consensus expectation of 3.1% [21]. - The beauty care sector is experiencing significant activity, with major brands like Proya and Winona showing strong sales performance during the Tmall Double 11 event [24]. - The travel sector is recovering, with nearly 106,000 passenger flights executed in the week of October 20-26, 2025, marking a 2.9% increase year-on-year [4][26]. Market Performance - For the week of October 20-24, 2025, the performance of the retail, social services, and beauty care sectors was +0.46%, +2.60%, and -0.09%, respectively, ranking them 26th, 14th, and 29th among 31 primary industries [13][15]. - The report notes that the trade, education, and professional services sectors performed well, with increases of +4.89%, +3.02%, and +2.70% [15]. Key Company Announcements - Juzi Biotechnology's recombinant type I α1 collagen facial injection has passed the joint review by the medical device and drug regulatory authorities [29]. - Runben Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 1.238 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.28% [29]. - Bubble Mart's Q3 revenue grew by 245%-250% year-on-year, with significant contributions from both domestic and international markets [27]. Consumer Behavior Trends - The report indicates that sales of products related to the "trade-in" program are growing rapidly, with retail sales of communication equipment, furniture, and cultural office supplies increasing by 16.2%, 16.2%, and 6.2%, respectively [21].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Insights - The successful approval of Class III medical devices by Juzi Biotech opens up growth opportunities in the medical beauty sector. The product, "Recombinant Type I α1 Collagen Lyophilized Fiber," is the first of its kind in China and is expected to enhance the company's product matrix and growth trajectory in the medical beauty segment [4] - Pop Mart's Q3 performance shows a significant revenue increase of 245-250% year-on-year, driven by the sustained influence of popular IPs. Revenue growth in China was 185-190%, with online channels growing by 300-305% [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector showed varied performance, with the beauty care index down by 0.09%, the retail index up by 0.46%, and the social services index up by 2.60% during the week of October 20 to October 24, 2025 [7] Key Industry Data - In September, retail sales for clothing and textiles increased by 4.7% year-on-year, cosmetics by 8.6%, and gold and silver jewelry by 9.7%. However, beverage retail sales saw a decline of 0.8% [11] Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality domestic brands in the beauty sector, such as Mao Ge Ping and Shumei Co. In the gold and jewelry sector, brands like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji are recommended. For trendy toys, companies with strong IP creation and operation experience, like Pop Mart, are highlighted. In the ready-to-drink tea sector, brands with strong market presence like Mixue Group and Guming are advised [18]

Group 1 - Global capital is hesitant, indicating a "noise" before a major market rebound, with A-shares returning to a defensive style focused on dividends and micro-cap stocks [1][10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shifted its strategic focus from "technological innovation" to "supply chain enhancement," ensuring supply chain security and high-end manufacturing autonomy [2][18] - The emphasis on domestic consumption has upgraded from "comprehensive promotion of consumption" to "strongly boosting consumption," reflecting a stronger policy commitment [2][18] Group 2 - Cross-border capital is significantly returning, which is a crucial material guarantee for the "15th Five-Year Plan" strategy and the macro engine for China's asset revival [3][20] - The return of cross-border capital is expected to fundamentally improve cash flow for enterprises and households, providing a material basis for boosting consumption and supporting manufacturing [3][20] Group 3 - China is adopting a steady path, focusing on solidifying competitive advantages through capital expenditure expansion and policy adjustments, while the U.S. faces challenges due to premature and excessive investment in AI infrastructure [4][23] - The U.S. is experiencing a "Ponzi-like" dilemma, where high unit costs of AI infrastructure hinder commercialization, potentially leading to a significant economic crisis [4][23] Group 4 - The report suggests a strategic layout for the "golden era" of Chinese assets, emphasizing a combination of sectors that are expected to reach new highs, including non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing [5][26] - The anticipated "ice-fire conversion" moment for manufacturing and consumption assets is supported by the return of cross-border capital and the strategic shift in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5][26]