海外策略研究 | 海外策略报告 证券研究报告 报告日期 2026 年 01 月 05 日 分析师：李彦霖 S0190510110015 请注意: 李彦霖并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 liylin@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：张博 S0190519060002 BMM189 zhangboyjs@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：迟玉怡 S0190522040001 请注意: 迟玉怡并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 chiyuyi@xyzq.com.cn 相关研究 【兴证全球策略】水与火之舞 ——2026 年美股投资展望-2025.12.11 【兴证全球策略】登高稳行：成长乘势 聚力，价值重构红利-2025.12.11 【兴证全球策略】被动型公募基金的港 股投资市值超过主动型公募基金——基 金三季报港股投资点评-2025.11.08 【兴证全球策略】岁末年初，港股高股 息资产更吸睛-2025.11.05 【兴证全球策略】耐心做多，长牛逻辑 下成长和价值都有机会-2025.10.31 【兴证全球策略】牛市震荡似"危" ...

每日经济新闻 华鑫证券指出，随着PPI降幅收窄到转正，行业风格将从科技成长逐步向上游资源、中游制造及下 游消费扩散。在MSCI中国A股ESG领域，重点关注三大方向：一是周期反转行业，包括景气改善的能 源金属、风电设备、工程机械等，以及具备涨价预期的新能源、有色、化工等；二是科技成长领域，如 景气上行的AI算力、储能等，以及产业催化的商业航天、机器人等；三是消费修复板块，包括政策预 期较强的食饮、社服、美护等。反内卷政策带动部分行业供需格局改善，叠加海外需求韧性，ESG相关 行业的盈利修复趋势有望延续。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com MSCIESGETF（159621）跟踪的是MSCI中国A股人民币ESG通用指数（MSC278），该指数基于母 指数构建，从中国A股市场中筛选出具有稳健ESG表现及积极改善趋势的上市公司证券作为指数样本， 并通过调整成分股权重，重点纳入 ...

证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 05 日 元旦假期出行数据亮眼，抖音美妆 GMV 预计全年高增 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新消费行业周报（2025.12.29-2026.1.2） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 元旦假期消费数据更新：元旦数据表现较优，或因今年假期时间长于去年同期。即 将迎来春节 9 天长假，期待后续假期出行表现。 联系人 1）出行数据：据交通运输部，元旦假期期间，预计全社会跨区域人员流动量累计 5.9 亿人次，日均 1.98 亿人次，同比增长 19.5%（去年同期假期为 1 天）。其中：铁路 客运量预计 4822.3 万人次，日均 1607.5 万人次，增长 53.1%；民航客运量预计 588.1 万人次，日均 196.03 万人次，增长 10.49%。 2）重点景区数据：① 据美团旅行数据，2026 年元旦假期，"西安城墙·碑林历史 文化景区"门票预订量同比去年大涨 134%。西安元旦文旅预订 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the robust growth in domestic tourism during the New Year holiday, with 142 million domestic trips taken, representing a 5.2% increase compared to 2024. Total spending reached 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year [14] - Suplay Inc. has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on high-end collectible non-combat IP cards, with a significant revenue increase of 40% year-on-year [21][22] - Meitu is transitioning to an AI Agent model, with plans to establish a venture capital fund of 10 million yuan to encourage employee entrepreneurship, aiming to enhance product innovation efficiency [40][46] - The sports fashion sector is experiencing rapid growth in China, with Lululemon's revenue in the mainland increasing by 46% year-on-year, reflecting a shift in consumer attitudes towards health and lifestyle [47][50] - Retail giants Hema and Sam's Club are entering an accelerated expansion phase, with Hema's revenue expected to grow by over 40% in 2025, and Sam's Club projected to exceed 140 billion yuan in sales, also showing strong online performance [61][63] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism - During the New Year holiday, domestic travel reached 142 million trips, a 5.2% increase from 2024, with total spending of 84.789 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year. Hainan's tourism market is thriving post-border closure, with significant increases in airport passenger traffic [14][19] Collectible IP Cards - Suplay Inc. focuses on high-end collectible non-combat IP cards, with a revenue of 283 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 40% increase year-on-year. The company leads the domestic market in collectible cards [21][22][38] AI Transformation - Meitu is shifting towards an AI Agent model, planning to set up a venture fund to foster innovation. The company aims to enhance its product offerings and operational efficiency through this transformation [40][46] Sports Fashion - Lululemon's revenue in China surged by 46% year-on-year, indicating a growing trend where clothing reflects lifestyle choices. The brand has expanded its presence with 175 stores in the region [47][50] Retail Expansion - Hema is set to open nearly 100 new stores in 2026, with a revenue growth of over 40% expected. Sam's Club is also expanding, with sales projected to surpass 140 billion yuan, driven by strong same-store sales and online growth [61][63]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of the community dining sector in China, with the market size expected to reach RMB 2,137.6 billion by 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4% from 2023 to 2028 [4][16] - The Hainan Free Trade Port has seen significant policy benefits, leading to increased consumer and trade activity, with notable growth in duty-free shopping and foreign trade enterprises [12][13] - The "oil-based skincare" segment is experiencing expansion, with both international and domestic brands enhancing their product offerings, which is expected to drive industry growth [27][28] Summary by Sections Hainan Free Trade Port Tracking - The first week of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full closure saw duty-free shopping amounting to RMB 1.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 54.9% [12] - The number of new foreign trade registered enterprises in Hainan increased by 2.3 times year-on-year, with over 30,000 new registered customs declaration units for the year, up over 40% [12] - Passenger throughput at Meilan Airport increased by 11.8% year-on-year during the first week of closure [13] Community Dining - The community dining sector has grown rapidly, with the market size increasing from RMB 1,141.4 billion in 2018 to RMB 1,365.8 billion in 2023, a CAGR of 3.7% [14][19] - JD's "Seven Fresh Kitchen" has opened over 30 stores in Beijing, aiming to establish 10,000 stores in three years, focusing on a dual model of delivery and self-pickup [18][24] - The "锅圈" (Guoquan) has expanded its store size and product offerings, transitioning from a simple grocery model to a comprehensive community kitchen service [24] Oil-based Skincare - The "oil-based skincare" market is seeing increased competition from both international luxury brands and domestic brands, with a focus on high-quality ingredients and effective formulations [27][28] - Lin Qingxuan has maintained the top market share on platforms like Taobao and Douyin, with a significant increase in its market share on Douyin by 13.8 percentage points compared to the previous year [28][33] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and the introduction of new active ingredients to meet diverse consumer needs [28] Market Performance Overview - The Hong Kong retail sector outperformed the Hang Seng Index, while consumer services and media sectors lagged behind [34][35] - The report notes that the duty-free and dining sectors have shown strong performance, with specific companies like 多想云 (Duoxiangyun) and 中国中免 (China Duty Free Group) leading in stock performance [43][44]

Core Insights - The new consumption sector in 2025 has transitioned from "extreme enthusiasm" to "intense divergence," with pricing gradually returning to rationality [1][5] - Despite market fluctuations, demand for new consumption remains strong, leading to an optimistic outlook for the future [1][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The new consumption market has experienced a "roller coaster" of emotions and pricing, shifting from extreme enthusiasm for innovative models to significant divergence, resulting in substantial valuation fluctuations [2][7] - The market is now reassessing the quality and quantity of growth, focusing on management capabilities and potential changes in competitive dynamics due to significant capital influx [2][7] - The consumption market exhibits a clear "K-shaped recovery," where high-net-worth individuals drive high-end consumption recovery, while middle and low-income groups face slower recovery due to employment and income expectations [2][7] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - 2025 is characterized as a year of full pricing for innovation in the new consumption sector, emphasizing the importance of supply-demand "innovation" [3][8] - Companies that can proactively innovate and adapt to changes will gain a competitive edge, particularly those enhancing consumer experiences through supply chain empowerment and emotional value satisfaction [3][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, attention should be paid to the "aftereffects" of high prosperity, as an increase in IPOs and active financing and mergers may lead to supply excess and intensified competition [4][9] - Three key areas to watch include: 1. Platform companies capable of navigating cycles, as single-brand models often face limitations [4][9] 2. Early participants in emerging trends, such as health-related products, which are expected to grow rapidly due to rising health awareness and social media-driven consumption [4][9] 3. Companies successfully expanding overseas, where manufacturing often scales more easily than branding, particularly in functional products [4][9] - The new consumption sector must continue to evolve, balancing innovation with an understanding of competitive dynamics and corporate capabilities [4][9]

智通财经APP获悉，东方财富陈果团队发布研究报告称，此前提示美债利率呈现上升迹象，日本央行加 息在即，需留意外部扰动，从上周市场表现来看，A股有扰动，但增量资金抢跑春季行情意愿也较强 烈，结构上内需板块尤其是非耐用品消费明显占优。春季行情经历长时间高胜率演绎，已经从日历效应 迈过抢跑博弈，进入反身性阶段，后续除可能的1月业绩预告扰动外，利空因素能见度不高，可顺应抢 跑，逢低布局。结构上具备足够赔率吸引力且胜率在上升的内需板块重视程度上移，重点关注：保险、 券商、有色、AI算力/半导体、零售/美护/社服/乳品、航空、新能源、创新药等。 春季行情演化论 随着市场参与者结构变化、信息传播速度加快、投资者学习效应增强、经济新旧动能转换，春季行情经 历了深刻的演化，可以划分为三个阶段：第一阶段，2017年及以前，日历效应阶段。行情发酵于春节 后，依赖政策驱动和流动性回流；第二阶段，2018-2023年，抢跑博弈阶段。行情启动时点明显前移至 12月，源于学习效应与市场参与结构变化；第三阶段，2024-2025年，反身性阶段。"抢跑"消耗增量资 金，遇利空易致"深坑式调整"，后续依赖产业趋势+流动性驱动。 最新的美国CPI ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the activation of cross-border trade and duty-free consumption in Hainan following the official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, which is expected to enhance the investment environment for high-end manufacturing and biomedicine sectors [14][21] - The short drama market is experiencing significant growth, with overseas short drama in-app purchases projected to reach $3.8 billion in 2025, reflecting a 153% year-on-year increase, indicating a shift in content consumption patterns [22][25] - The fashion consumption sector is evolving, with professional sports brands like Lululemon becoming new benchmarks for the middle class, driven by the integration of functionality, fashion expression, and lifestyle [32][33] - The "oil skincare" segment is witnessing high growth, with Lin Qingxuan emerging as the leading brand, achieving a 212% growth in GMV across three platforms in 2025 [40][41] Summary by Sections Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port's launch has led to a direct increase in cross-border trade, with zero tariff policies driving significant growth in imports, particularly in high-end manufacturing and biomedicine [14][15] - Duty-free sales have surged, with a 61% year-on-year increase in shopping amounts on the first day of the port's operation, indicating strong consumer demand [15][18] Short Drama Market - The overseas short drama market is projected to exceed traditional film box office revenues, with a notable increase in demand from the Middle East, which is becoming a new market for Chinese short dramas [22][27] - The platform DramaBite, under Chi Zi Cheng Technology, has seen significant user engagement, with 3.46 million downloads in the past year [30] Fashion Consumption - The report identifies three key trends in fashion consumption: the integration of sports into daily life, the rise of outdoor brands as fashion symbols, and the awakening of specific consumer needs for tailored products [32] - Online sales for professional sports brands have shown remarkable growth, with Lululemon achieving over 5 billion yuan in online sales and maintaining a 51% growth rate [33][36] Oil Skincare Segment - The "oil skincare" market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size for facial and eye oils expected to exceed 11 billion yuan by 2025, driven by changing consumer perceptions [40][42] - Lin Qingxuan leads the market with a 12.4% share, supported by a robust supply chain and innovative product development [41][60]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：陈果投资策略 摘要 上周周报我们提示美债利率呈现上升迹象，日本央行加息在即，需留意外部扰动，从本周市场表现来 看，A股有扰动，但增量资金抢跑春季行情意愿也较强烈，结构上内需板块尤其是非耐用品消费明显占 优。我们认为，春季行情经历长时间高胜率演绎，已经从日历效应迈过抢跑博弈，进入反身性阶段，后 续除可能的1月业绩预告扰动外，利空因素能见度不高，可顺应抢跑，逢低布局。结构上具备足够赔率 吸引力且胜率在上升的内需板块重视程度上移，重点关注：保险、券商、有色、AI算力/半导体、零售/ 美护/社服/乳品、航空、新能源、创新药等。 春季行情演化论 随着市场参与者结构变化、信息传播速度加快、投资者学习效应增强、经济新旧动能转换，春季行情经 历了深刻的演化，可以划分为三个阶段：第一阶段，2017年及以前，日历效应阶段。行情发酵于春节 后，依赖政策驱动和流动性回流；第二阶段，2018-2023年，抢跑博弈阶段。行情启动时点明显前移至 12月，源于学习效应与市场参与结构变化；第三阶段，2024-2025年，反身性阶段。"抢跑"消耗增量资 金，遇利空易 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a recovery phase for Nike, with a stable revenue growth of 1% year-on-year in FY26Q2, despite challenges in certain markets [1][11]. Core Insights - Nike is currently in a mid-recovery phase, focusing on strategic adjustments and product innovation. The performance in key markets will depend on the rollout of core sports products and the strategic reset in major markets [1][17]. - The North American market shows strong performance with a 9% year-on-year revenue increase, while the Greater China region faces a 16% decline as it undergoes a strategic reset [1][13]. - The report highlights a mixed performance in the beauty and personal care sector, with online skincare sales growing by 4.8% year-on-year, while makeup sales increased by 10% [2][18]. Summary by Sections Nike Performance - FY26Q2 revenue reached $124.27 billion, with a 1% year-on-year growth. Wholesale channels grew by 8%, while NIKEDirect saw a decline of 9% [1][11]. - The North American market's revenue increased by 9%, driven by strong demand in running, children's apparel, and basketball categories [1][13]. - The Greater China market's revenue decreased by 16%, impacted by reduced foot traffic and inventory issues [1][13]. Beauty and Personal Care Sector - Online skincare sales in November grew by 4.8%, with Tmall and Douyin showing contrasting performance [2][18]. - Makeup sales increased by 10%, with Tmall and Douyin also reflecting varied growth rates [2][18]. - Brands are shifting focus to Tmall as ROI on Douyin advertising declines [2][18]. Retail Trends - November clothing retail sales grew by 3.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed compared to October [3][25]. - Jewelry retail sales saw a decline of 8.5% year-on-year, while gold prices supported demand [3][25]. - The cosmetics sector experienced a 6.1% year-on-year growth, but the growth rate has decreased compared to previous months [3][32]. Investment Recommendations - For apparel brands, Hai Lan's Home is recommended for its strong profitability and expansion potential, while Li Ning is seen as having a potential turning point [4]. - In the beauty sector, companies like Juzi Biotechnology and Jinbo Biological are highlighted for their resilience and product launches [4]. - The jewelry sector remains attractive due to rising gold prices, with recommendations for brands like Laoputang [4].