证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 从 M1、M2 到资产配置——四季度 M1 同比 的拆解预测 ⑤居民加杠杆、外汇派生规模以及其他因素同比去年四季度持平，此外参照前 三季度趋势，单位定期存款和其他存款四季度同比少增 6000 亿。 3、历史经验来看，不同的货币变化对应不同的资产走势： ❖ 核心观点。 ①旧口径 M1 同比领先 PPI 和工业产成品库存同比大致三到四个季度，而 PPI 同比与 CPI 同比剪刀差的持续向上是周期跑赢大盘的先决条件； 1、发债节奏扰动叠加反内卷政策推行的影响下，静态预测，旧口径 M1 同比 预计从 9 月的 6.2%回落至年底的 3.4%左右，仍高于 2024 年年底的-1.4%；M2 同比从 9 月的 8.4%回落至年底的 8.0%左右，仍高于 2024 年年底的 7.3%。 ②非银存款同比多增是权益市场成交金额放量的同步映射； 2、数据预测参照公式：旧口径 M1=M2-其他货币；其中，M2=企业加杠杆派 生+政府加杠杆派生+居民加杠杆派生+外汇派生+其他因素派生；其他货币=居 民存款+非银存款+单位定期存款和其他存款。针对上述预测背后的主要假设： ①由于反内卷政策推进，参照 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of tracking three financial indicators: M1 year-on-year growth, non-bank deposits, and corporate medium to long-term loans, as they reflect industrial inventory and PPI improvements, market activity, and production investment trends respectively [4][5][6] - In September, M1 year-on-year growth increased by 1.2%, while non-bank deposits decreased by 1.97 trillion, and corporate medium to long-term loans saw a slight decrease of 500 million [4][5] - The decline in non-bank deposits in September is attributed to seasonal factors, particularly the pressure on banks to meet deposit assessments at the end of the quarter, leading to a typical seasonal drop in non-bank deposits [4][5][9] Group 2 - The article discusses the implications of the significant drop in non-bank deposits in September, suggesting it does not necessarily indicate a weakening of the equity market's activity, and further observation of October's data is required [8][9] - The increase in M1 year-on-year is likely driven by a rise in household demand rather than improvements in corporate cash flow, as evidenced by the relatively modest increase in corporate deposits [10][23] - The article highlights that while the new M1 metric is statistically more accurate, historical discrepancies suggest that it may not directly correlate with corporate expectations, necessitating further analysis of traditional M1 metrics [10][24] Group 3 - In September, the total social financing increased by 3.53 trillion, a decrease of 2.3 trillion year-on-year, with a stock growth rate of 8.7% [31][32] - The article notes that corporate medium to long-term loans continued to show a decrease, with a total loan increase of 1.29 trillion, which is 300 billion less than the previous year [27][31] - M2 growth rate fell to 8.4% in September, down 0.4% from the previous month, while new M1 grew by 7.2%, reflecting a mixed trend in liquidity [32][33]