年内，M1同比增速总体呈现上扬趋势，并在6月末达到4.6%，与8.3%的M2同比增速相差3.7个百分点， 为年内最小差值，且较前5个月明显收窄。分析人士预计，三季度，稳经济、稳预期、稳外贸政策效果 和M1的低基数效应将持续显现，对M1同比增速形成支撑，M2、M1"剪刀差"有望继续维持在相对低 位。（上证报） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall capital situation is loose, and with the central bank's 1.4 - trillion repurchase, the bond yields decline. The bond market will continue the short - term volatile pattern, and maintain the bull - market foundation in the medium and long term supported by the weak economic recovery and loose policies. However, attention should be paid to the fluctuations caused by macro data and overseas negotiation progress and the necessity of adjusting the duration [2]. - For the 2509 contract, it is neutral as the repurchase rate rebounds and the bond futures prices fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the widening of the basis. Short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging due to the medium - term adjustment pressure [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) has a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.60% [8]. - Economic indicators (monthly update): The social financing scale is 430.22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 4.06 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.95%; M2 year - on - year is 8.30%, with an increase of 0.40% and a growth rate of 5.06%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with an increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.40% [8]. - Economic indicators (daily update): The US dollar index is 98.64, with an increase of 0.53 and a growth rate of 0.54%; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1751, with an increase of 0.005 and a growth rate of 0.07%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.55, with an increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.05%; DR007 is 1.57, with an increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 2.19%; R007 is 1.68, with an increase of 0.04 and a growth rate of 2.35%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.56, with a decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.06%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.06, with an increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 1.06% [9]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Multiple charts show the closing price trend, price change rate, maturity yield trend, valuation change, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio (top 20), long - short position ratio (top 20), trading - to - position ratio, bond lending turnover and total position of treasury bond futures, as well as the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds and the treasury bond issuance situation [6][7]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - Multiple charts show the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local bond issuance situation [31][33][36]. 4. Spread Overview - Multiple charts show the inter - term spread trend of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and cross - variety spread of futures [40][43][44]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [46][48][55]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis trends of the TF main contract [54][57]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [62][65]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Multiple charts show the implied interest rate and treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [70][73][76].

Group 1: Economic Financing Demand - In June, the demand for financing in the real economy showed a significant rebound, with new RMB loans amounting to 23,600 billion yuan, an increase of 1,132 billion yuan year-on-year[9] - Corporate bond financing reached 2,422 billion yuan, which is an increase of 322 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a recovery in financing demand[9] - The increase in household loans in June was 5,976 billion yuan, up by 267 billion yuan year-on-year, reflecting a rise in residents' willingness to leverage[10] Group 2: Monetary Supply and Deposits - In June, new RMB deposits totaled 32,100 billion yuan, an increase of 7,500 billion yuan year-on-year, with household deposits increasing by 3,300 billion yuan[12] - M1 growth was 4.6% year-on-year, up by 2.3 percentage points from the previous value, while M2 growth was 8.3%, reflecting an overall improvement in economic activity[14] - The gap between M1 and M2 growth rates narrowed to -3.7%, indicating increased economic activity but requiring attention to supply-side regulatory impacts[14] Group 3: Market Conditions and Risks - Positive signals from Sino-U.S. trade negotiations have improved market risk appetite, reducing the likelihood of intensified trade friction[2] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to remain industry self-regulated for now, limiting its immediate impact on production[2] - Risks include potential escalation of geopolitical conflicts and trade tensions, as well as the possibility that policy effects may fall short of expectations[3][18]

智通财经C50风向指数调查：6月新增社融或同比多增 M1、M2同比增速继续回升 智通财经7月7日电，新一期智通财经"C50风向指数"结果显示，市场预计6月信贷表现略低于去年同 期，政府债券继续支撑社融增长。其中，市场机构对6月新增人民币贷款的预测中值为2.03万亿元，或 同比少增1000亿元；另对6月新增社融的预测中值为3.9万亿元，或同比多增6000亿元。伴随市场流动性 改善结合低基数影响，以及财政资金的逐步拨付使用，市场预计6月M1及M2同比增速继续上行。物价 方面，市场预计6月CPI同比读数仍在零值附近徘徊，PPI同比降幅或与上月持平。具体来看，市场机构 对6月CPI同比增速预测中值为0%，对6月PPI同比增速预测中值为-3.3%。（智通财经记者 夏淑媛） ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, the total social financing increased by 22,894 billion yuan, which is 2,271 billion yuan more than the same period last year[2] - The stock growth rate of social financing recorded 8.7%, remaining unchanged from the previous value[2] - New RMB loans in May amounted to 6,200 billion yuan, which was lower than expected, indicating a need for improved effective financing demand[2] Group 2: Government Financing and Loan Trends - Government bonds increased by 14,633 billion yuan in May, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion yuan, supporting social financing expansion[9] - Corporate loans increased by 5,300 billion yuan, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 2,100 billion yuan, influenced by global trade tensions[10] - Resident loans increased by 540 billion yuan, but this also represented a year-on-year decrease of 217 billion yuan, showing weak leverage willingness post-interest rate cuts[10] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Policy Implications - M2 growth rate in May recorded 7.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, likely due to slowed credit expansion[14] - M1 growth rate improved by 0.8 percentage points to 2.3%, reflecting the impact of recent financial support policies on market confidence[14] - Future strategies should focus on enhancing fiscal efforts and coordinating monetary policy to stimulate financing willingness in the real economy[19] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Risks include potential underperformance of policy implementation, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and unexpected developments in US-China trade tensions[21]

分析师：高瑞东 2025 年 5 月 15 日 总量研究 信贷增长的非常规性扰动 ——2025 年 4 月金融数据点评 作者 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：王佳雯 执业证书编号：S0930524010001 021-52523870 wangjiawen@ebscn.com 要点 事件：2025 年 5 月 14 日，中国人民银行公布 2025 年 4 月货币金融数据：社 融新增 1.16 万亿元，前值为新增 5.89 万亿元；社融存量同比增速为 8.7%，前 值为 8.4%；人民币贷款新增 2800 亿元，前值为新增 3.64 万亿元；M1 同比增 速为 1.5%，前值为 1.6%。 核心观点： 4 月份金融数据呈现"社融强+信贷弱"的组合。财政持续靠前发力，社融增速 进一步加快，较为符合预期。而信贷偏弱主要是受季节性、清欠加快、关税冲 击等非常规因素扰动。向前看，一揽子金融政策将加快落实，配合二季度财政 发力，而信贷的非常规扰动因素可能弱化，预计主要金融指标有望平稳向好。 一、信贷增长存在非常规扰动 2025 年 5 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-05-14，沪铜主力合约开于 77930元/吨，收于 78940元/吨，较前一交易日收盘1.09%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 78,900元/吨，收于 78,650 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.19%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯， 昨日日内，采购和销售情绪均有所降低，主因临近交割，下游采购情绪受到高月差影响，基本换月 后在进行采购，采购指数为3.07；持货商手持可注册仓单货源基本不愿低价出货，市场低价铜基本为进口或不可注 册仓单货，整体出货意愿不高，销售情绪指数降至3.14。第一交易时段，市场如铁峰、中条山PC等货源贴水50元/ 吨左右成交，祥光/JCC等贴水40-30元/吨。随后月差走扩，贴水扩大，持货商下调报价，主流平水铜成交亦降至贴 水50元/吨。湿法货源紧张，非注册贴水150元/吨左右。 采购与销售情绪均有所下降 铜价高位震荡 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-15 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，据外媒讯美国与日本、韩国、印度的贸易关税协议"接近达成"；②消息人士：美国在关税谈判 中不寻求美元贬值。此外，特朗普在卡塔尔达成1.2万亿美元经济承诺 ...