证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 12 日 M1-M2 负剪刀差再度走阔，居民存款搬家仍在继续 ——11 月金融数据解读 核心观点 11 月末 M2 与 M1 增速相对承压。11 月末，M2 增速为 8%，前值 8.2%，下行了 0.2 个百分点。11 月末，M1 同比增速为 4.9%，前值 6.2%，回落了 1.3 个百分点。11 月 M1-M2 负剪刀差为-3.1%，前值-2%，较上月再度走阔 1.1 个百分点。 我们认为 11 月 M1-M2 负剪刀差进一步走阔，主要体现为 M1 对企业活期存款更为敏 感，在年末资金周转加快与存款定期化倾向提升的背景下，回落幅度显著大于 M2。 具体而言，企业端受回款偏慢、支出结算与偿债需求上升影响，活期资金难以沉淀， 部分资金由活期向定期存款迁移，压制 M1 增速；与此同时，财政开支加快带来政府 存款向居民、企业端的季节性转移，叠加国库定存净增对一般存款形成托底，使 M2 增速仅小幅下行。综合影响下，呈现 M1 显著下行、M2 相对韧性的组合特征，推动负 剪刀差继续扩大。 跟踪居民存款搬家，11 月超额储蓄的 ...

Group 1: Company Insights - The core recommendation for NetDragon (00777) is based on its dual business model of gaming and education, with significant revenue expected from its investment in the group broadcasting business [4] - Revenue projections for NetDragon from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 4.67 billion, 4.88 billion, and 5.10 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year changes of -22.77%, 4.45%, and 4.47% respectively [4] - The expected net profit for NetDragon during the same period is projected to be 415 million, 650 million, and 725 million CNY, with growth rates of 33.52%, 56.49%, and 11.63% respectively [4] Group 2: Industry Insights - The recommendation for Tianhe Defense (300397) highlights its potential recovery in the military sector under the "14th Five-Year Plan," with opportunities in low-altitude and deep-sea technology [5] - Revenue forecasts for Tianhe Defense from 2025 to 2027 are 522 million, 697 million, and 928 million CNY, with growth rates of 29.7%, 33.7%, and 33.1% respectively [5] - The expected net profit for Tianhe Defense during this period is projected to be 10.4 million, 26.9 million, and 60.4 million CNY, with earnings per share of 0.02, 0.05, and 0.12 CNY [5] Group 3: Macro Insights - The macroeconomic analysis indicates a reduced probability of interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, with more substantial easing policies likely reserved for early 2026 [6][7] - The central bank's recent policy adjustments suggest that the most significant economic pressures may have passed, supporting a stable economic outlook [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring external factors such as U.S. inflation and its impact on monetary policy decisions in China [7] Group 4: Strategy Insights - The A-share strategy report suggests that the Shanghai Composite Index is currently in a bullish phase, with a focus on cyclical and technology growth sectors [8] - Key investment themes include technology and domestic demand, with specific attention to AI computing, robotics, solid-state batteries, photolithography, controllable nuclear fusion, deep-sea technology, and the silver economy [8] - The report maintains a neutral to optimistic outlook on the market, considering various economic and policy factors [8]

Monetary Supply Trends - As of the end of October, M2 growth rate was 8.2%, down from 8.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points[1] - M1 growth rate was 6.2%, down from 7.2%, a decline of 1 percentage point[1] - The M1-M2 gap widened to -2%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month[1] Deposit Dynamics - Household deposits decreased by 1.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 770 billion yuan[12] - Non-financial enterprise deposits fell by 1.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 355.3 billion yuan[12] - Fiscal deposits increased by 720 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 124.8 billion yuan[12] - Non-bank deposits rose by 1.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 770 billion yuan[12] Credit and Financing - New RMB loans in October amounted to 220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 280 billion yuan[3] - Social financing increased by 815 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 432.1 billion yuan, with a month-end growth rate of 8.5%[8] - Corporate loans increased by 350 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 220 billion yuan[5] Economic Outlook - The central bank indicated that the most significant pressure points may have passed, suggesting a potential decrease in the likelihood of rate cuts in the fourth quarter[15] - The cumulative excess savings of households since 2020 is estimated at approximately 2.54 trillion yuan, reflecting ongoing shifts in deposit behavior[14]