Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the tariff suspension measures between China and the U.S. on August 12, and the potential for easing trade risks based on recent trade agreements with Japan and the EU [7] - It highlights the ongoing economic situation in July, characterized by strong supply but weak demand, indicating a mixed economic outlook [11] - The article notes that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown weakness due to low capacity utilization in mid and downstream sectors, which are considered two underlying factors affecting PPI performance [12] Group 2 - The financial data for July indicates a significant rebound in M2 year-on-year, primarily driven by an active capital market [15] - The article mentions that the U.S. has established a three-tiered tariff system as part of its trade agreements, with significant uncertainties regarding the execution of investment and procurement commitments [17][18] - It emphasizes the long-term and targeted nature of tariff leverage, with secondary and transshipment tariffs gradually taking shape [18]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint is that the year-on-year increase in M2 is primarily driven by the active capital market, which has accelerated the return of funds to the banking system, leading to a record high in non-bank deposits [2][6]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of July 2025, the credit balance decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 6.9%, while the social financing stock increased by 0.1 percentage points to 9.0%, and M2 rose by 0.5 percentage points to 8.8% [5]. - The non-bank deposits increased by 21,400 billion, marking the highest level for the same period since 2015, with a year-on-year increase of 13,900 billion [2][34]. Group 2: Loan and Credit Trends - Resident loans saw a significant decline, decreasing by 4,893 billion, which is a year-on-year reduction of 2,793 billion, reflecting a cautious attitude towards debt amid an unstable job market [10][23]. - Corporate credit showed a mixed trend, with short-term loans and bill financing performing well, while medium- to long-term loans remained weak, indicating a cautious stance on long-term investments [15][20]. Group 3: Social Financing and Government Bonds - The new social financing scale continued to show a year-on-year increase, primarily due to net financing from government bonds, with a total increase of 5.1 trillion from January to July 2025 [20][29]. - Government bond issuance in July amounted to 12,440 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 5,559 billion, contributing significantly to the overall social financing growth [29][34]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Policies - The introduction of loan interest subsidy policies aims to lower the comprehensive financing costs and stimulate credit growth, with a subsidy rate of 1 percentage point for consumer loans and service industry loans [22]. - The cautious approach of enterprises towards long-term investments is reflected in the decline of medium- to long-term loans, with the PPI dropping to -3.6% and the PMI production expectation index decreasing to 52.6 [15][20].

Core Viewpoint - The rebound in M2 year-on-year is primarily driven by the active capital market, which has accelerated the return of funds, leading to a record high in non-bank deposits for the same period since 2015, with an increase of 21,400 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13,900 billion yuan [3][9][48]. Financial Data Summary - As of July 2025, the credit balance decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 6.9%, while the social financing stock increased by 0.1 percentage points to 9.0%, and M2 rose by 0.5 percentage points to 8.8% [2][8][47]. - The increase in social financing scale is mainly attributed to net government bond financing, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1 trillion yuan from January to July 2025, of which net government bond financing contributed 4.9 trillion yuan [4][24][49]. - In July, the total social financing increased by 11,600 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3,893 billion yuan, primarily driven by government bonds [33][50]. Loan and Deposit Trends - Resident loans saw a significant decline, decreasing by 4,893 billion yuan, a year-on-year reduction of 2,793 billion yuan, reflecting a cautious attitude towards debt amid an unstable job market [14][15][48]. - The structure of deposits showed a decrease in resident deposits by 11,100 billion yuan and corporate deposits by 14,591 billion yuan, while fiscal deposits increased by 7,700 billion yuan [39][51]. - Corporate credit displayed a mixed trend, with short-term loans and bill financing performing well, while medium- to long-term loans remained weak, indicating a cautious stance on long-term investments [19][49]. Policy Outlook - The introduction of loan interest subsidy policies aims to lower the comprehensive financing costs and stimulate credit growth, with a subsidy rate of 1 percentage point for consumer loans and service industry loans [26][49].

Core Viewpoint - The rebound in M2 year-on-year is primarily driven by the active capital market, which has accelerated the return of funds to the banking system, leading to a record high in non-bank deposits for July [3][48]. Financial Data Summary - As of July 2025, the credit balance decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 6.9%, while the social financing stock increased by 0.1 percentage points to 9.0%, and M2 rose by 0.5 percentage points to 8.8% [2][8]. - Non-bank deposits increased by 21,400 billion, the highest level recorded for the same period since 2015, with a year-on-year increase of 13,900 billion [3][48]. - The total social financing scale stock rose from 8.0% at the end of 2024 to 9.0% by July 2025, mainly due to the front-loading of government bond net financing [4][24]. Loan and Credit Analysis - Resident loans saw a significant decline, decreasing by 4,893 billion, which is a year-on-year reduction of 2,793 billion, reflecting a cautious attitude towards debt amid an unstable job market [3][14]. - Corporate credit showed a mixed trend, with short-term loans and bill financing performing well, while medium- to long-term loans remained weak, indicating a cautious stance on long-term investments [19][49]. - In July, new loans decreased by 500 billion year-on-year, primarily due to the reduction in resident loans [27][50]. Future Outlook - The introduction of loan interest subsidy policies may help lower the overall financing costs and stimulate credit growth through fiscal and financial collaboration [26][49]. - The government bond net financing has been a significant contributor to the increase in social financing, but this phase may be nearing its end as the base for government bond financing remains high [4][24].