Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to significant market reactions, with major stock indices in Hong Kong and the US experiencing substantial gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the easing of trade tensions [1][4]. Summary by Sections Trade Policy Adjustments - The adjustment of tariffs has exceeded market expectations, providing a clear signal of easing tensions. This is attributed to the US's reliance on Chinese supply chains and China's growing comprehensive national strength, which is expected to boost market risk appetite in the short term [3][4]. - The US will lower tariffs to a "non-discriminatory" level during a 90-day exemption period, which is seen as a necessary step to prevent damage to the US economy and to facilitate further negotiations [4][5]. Market Reactions - Following the joint statement, there was a rapid increase in market risk appetite, with safe-haven assets like gold and the yen declining, while the Hong Kong stock market and the US stock futures rose sharply [7][8]. - The capital market's significant rise reflects a strong recognition of the joint statement, with expectations of a recovery in the export-related sectors such as machinery, lithium batteries, and transportation [8][9]. Long-term Trends and Investment Opportunities - In the medium to long term, the focus is on technology self-sufficiency and new productive forces, with key trends including domestic AI development, innovative pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure in energy and communication [10][11]. - The easing of tariffs is expected to benefit export-oriented industries, particularly in consumer electronics, components, machinery, and automotive parts, which may see improved performance in the near term [9][11]. - The overall sentiment suggests that if the US maintains lower tariff levels, the pressure on Chinese exports will significantly decrease, leading to a recovery in macroeconomic fundamentals [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to significant market reactions, with major stock indices in Hong Kong and the US experiencing substantial gains, indicating a positive market sentiment towards the trade discussions [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the joint statement from the US-China trade talks, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 2.98%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by over 5%, reflecting strong market optimism [1]. - US stock index futures also rose, alongside increases in US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, indicating a broad market response to the trade developments [1][4]. Group 2: Trade Policy Adjustments - The adjustment of tariffs exceeded market expectations, with a significant reduction in tariffs providing a boost to market risk appetite and potentially aiding in the recovery of domestic economic performance and corporate profitability [3][4]. - The joint statement emphasized a return to "non-discriminatory tariffs," aligning US tariffs on China with those on other economies, which is seen as a strategic move to stabilize the US economy and avoid further disruptions [4][5]. Group 3: Sector Impacts - The easing of tariffs is expected to directly benefit foreign trade-related industries, particularly in sectors such as machinery, lithium batteries, and transportation, which are poised for a short-term recovery [7][8]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in export-oriented sectors, including consumer electronics, components, machinery, and automotive parts, as these industries are likely to experience improved performance due to the tariff adjustments [9][11]. Group 4: Long-term Trends - In the medium to long term, there is a focus on technology self-sufficiency and new productive forces, with significant attention on sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and advanced manufacturing materials [10][11]. - The ongoing emphasis on strengthening domestic technological capabilities is viewed as essential for enhancing China's international standing and economic resilience [11].

Group 1: A-Share Market Highlights - Construction Bank's stock rose by 1.54%, reaching a historical high, indicating continued market preference for high-dividend assets [1] - Jinbo Biological, a leader in the collagen protein sector, saw its stock increase by 9%, also hitting a historical high, reflecting the active new consumption concept market [1] - The micro-cap stock index rose by 0.18%, reaching a historical high, viewed as a risk appetite indicator [1] Group 2: Lithium Battery Sector - Near the market close, the lithium battery sector surged, with leading stock Guoxuan High-Tech rising by 9.15%, closing with a market value of 41.92 billion [4][6] - Guoxuan High-Tech announced a new high-safety solid-state battery with an energy density of 300Wh/kg, expected to be released in mid-May [6] Group 3: Technology Sector Adjustments - The technology sector experienced a pullback, particularly in the semiconductor, AI, and consumer electronics sectors, influenced by recent gains and external market uncertainties [8] - Despite the pullback, institutions remain optimistic about the technology sector, citing reduced crowding and a shift in focus towards long-term industry trends [8] - Key investment opportunities in May include multi-modal AI, AI/AR glasses, innovative drugs, and controlled nuclear fusion [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that May may present trading opportunities after a clearing of positions, with a focus on technology and industry themes such as multi-modal AI, AI/AR glasses supply chain, and innovative pharmaceuticals [2] - Institutions are generally optimistic about the market environment in May, suggesting an increase in risk appetite, particularly in the technology sector while also considering mid-cap value stocks for defense [2] - Morgan Stanley believes that opportunities in A-shares in May may surpass those in April, with reduced earnings uncertainty following the first quarter reports, leading to an expected increase in risk appetite [2] Group 2 - Institutions widely agree on a balanced strategy of "growth + value" in industry allocation, with a long-term focus on basic industrial products and sectors like cultural tourism and medical services [3] - Short-term outlooks favor liquidity-sensitive growth sectors such as new energy and AI, while also recommending defensive sectors like food and beverage [3] - Continuous monitoring of policy dynamics, including potential interest rate cuts and special bond issuances, is advised [3]

文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 遥远 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前，中美贸易谈判可能进展有限；国内的政策是托底和应对式的，4月只是第一波以试验和预防为特征 的政策；筹码出清相对彻底且对业绩不敏感的主题阶段性占优；市场整体情绪位置不算低，科技板块相对医药和消费更接近冰点，对风偏 回升更敏感。配置上，5月关注新技术和产业题材轮动、海外科技映射链修复以及服务业扩内需政策落地。 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前， 中美贸易谈判可能进展有限 近期特朗普针对关税问题表态持续反复，美股市场反应较为敏感。但我们认为国内投资者不需要花精力关心这些高频变化，特朗普试图灵活 利用关税武器来制造谈判筹码，而中国商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示"如果美方真的想解决问题，就应该正视国际社会和国内各方理性声音， 彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施，通过平等对话，找到解决分歧的办法"。我们建议还是关注特朗普未来一年面临的两大约束，一是7~8月需 要推进债务上限谈判和减税法案通过，二是明年中期选举。尽管目前特朗普的民调支持率已经开始明显下降，但这属于每个美国总统百日新 政后正常的回落，而特朗普两次任期的民调本身就比其他美国总统偏低，目前 ...