Report Title - LPG: Short-term support is not weak, pay attention to cost changes [2] - Propylene: Weak operation in the short term [3] Core Viewpoints - LPG has short-term support but investors should focus on cost changes; propylene is expected to operate weakly in the short term [2][3] Fundamental Tracking Futures Prices - PG2511 closed at 4,290 yesterday with a 0.54% increase, and 4,317 at night with a 0.63% increase - PG2512 closed at 4,211 yesterday with a 0.21% increase, and 4,235 at night with a 0.57% increase - PL2601 closed at 6,365 yesterday with a -0.11% decrease, and 6,396 at night with a 0.49% increase - PL2602 closed at 6,399 yesterday with no change, and 6,412 at night with a 0.20% increase [3] Position and Trading Volume - PG2511 had a trading volume of 65,891 yesterday, an increase of 4,599 from the previous day, and a position of 80,682, a decrease of 7,631 - PG2512 had a trading volume of 12,891 yesterday, an increase of 1,852 from the previous day, and a position of 43,849, an increase of 1,244 - PL2601 had a trading volume of 2,531 yesterday, an increase of 1,093 from the previous day, and a position of 12,193, a decrease of 94 - PL2602 had a trading volume of 44 yesterday, unchanged from the previous day, and a position of 622, a decrease of 2 [3] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG11 contract was 290 yesterday, compared to 283 the day before - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG11 contract was 370 yesterday, compared to 393 the day before - The spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 110 yesterday, compared to 113 the day before - The spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was -15 yesterday, compared to -42 the day before - The spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was -90 yesterday, compared to -97 the day before [3] Industrial Chain Data - PDH operating rate was 69.5% this week, compared to 64.6% last week - MTBE operating rate was 64.2% this week, compared to 63.6% last week - Alkylation operating rate was 47.4% this week, compared to 44.9% last week [3] Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity is 0; propylene trend intensity is 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] Market News CP Paper Goods - On September 26, 2025, the October CP paper goods, propane was at $542/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day; butane was at $520/ton, up $1/ton from the previous trading day. The November CP paper goods, propane was at $557/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [7] PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple domestic PDH plants have maintenance plans, with some starting from 2023 and the end times of many still to be determined [8] Liquefied Gas Plant Device Maintenance Plans - Many domestic liquefied gas plants have maintenance plans, with varying durations and some end times still to be determined [8]

报告行业投资评级 - Not provided 报告的核心观点 - PG main contract fluctuates weakly, with the cheapest deliverable being East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. The fundamentals show that port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and overall, the market is expected to rise steadily [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 日度变化 - The daily change shows that the price of South China LPG remains unchanged, East China LPG increases by 5, Shandong LPG remains unchanged, propane CFR South China increases by 6, propane CIF Japan increases by 5, MB propane spot decreases by 1, CP forecast contract price decreases by 1, Shandong ether - post - carbon four increases by 20, Shandong alkylated oil remains unchanged, paper import profit decreases by 47, and the main basis increases by 3. P - to - PP production profit weakens, CP production cost is lower than FEI. The PG futures fluctuates, and the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+10). The US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed. The cheapest deliverable on Friday is East China civil LPG at 4481 [1] 周度观点 - The PG main contract fluctuates weakly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4481. The basis first weakens then strengthens to 70 (+59). The 9 - 10 spread is -721 (-212), the 10 - 11 spread is 87 (+7). The registered warrant volume is 13207 lots (+320). The September CP official price remains stable, with propane and butane at 520/490. FEI and CP spreads fluctuate, MB spreads strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio changes little. The domestic - foreign spread fluctuates. The PG - CP is 106, the PG - FEI is 85, and the FEI - CP is 21.5 (+4.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window fluctuates and is closed. The AFEI offshore discount is 5.5 (-0.5), and the CP South China CIF discount is 65 (+8). Freight rates are flat, the waiting time at the Panama Canal decreases, but the auction fee remains high. The FEI - MOPJ widens to -56 (-10), and the naphtha crack spread strengthens slightly. PDH spot profit changes little, and paper profit fluctuates downward. The production gross profit of alkylated oil declines. MTBE gross profit decreases. Fundamentally, port inventories are decreasing, refinery commercial volume increases by 2.47%, and plant inventories increase but are generally controllable. PDH operating rate is 73.02% (-2.64pct), Wanhua Phase II is under maintenance, and Quanzhou Guoheng restarts at the end of the week. Next week, Quanzhou Guoheng is expected to increase production, and Hebei Haiwei plans to shut down. The alkylation operating rate is 48.42% (+0.74), and the MTBE operating rate is 63.54% (+0). Although the peak season is coming to an end, demand remains weak. East China is the cheapest delivery area, with expected tight supply, improved demand, and increased import costs, and the overall market rises steadily [1]