Core Insights - The tech market is currently experiencing a tug of war between fear and greed, with investors leaning more towards fear, leading to significant sell-offs in software stocks despite strong fundamentals in some companies [4][5][10] - Major tech companies, particularly in the semiconductor sector, are trading sideways, indicating a selective market that is avoiding high-valuation stocks while looking for cheaper alternatives with AI exposure [6][9][30] - Concerns around capital expenditures (CapEx) are prevalent, with a stark contrast between U.S. CapEx of approximately $625 billion and China's expected CapEx of only $74 billion, raising fears about the sustainability of investments in the tech sector [14][15][54] Software Stocks - The sell-off in software stocks is attributed to investor panic regarding the integration of AI and the return on investment, particularly affecting major players like Microsoft [10][11][12] - Microsoft’s earnings were notably impacted by the fact that 45% of its backlog is linked to OpenAI, which has raised concerns about the sustainability of its growth [12][15] Semiconductor Sector - Companies like Nvidia and Broadcom are seen as key players in AI technology, but their stock performance has been lackluster, indicating market skepticism despite their fundamental strengths [7][30] - Nvidia is expected to have a breakout moment due to upcoming catalysts, including sales in China and the ramp-up of its Vera Rubin technology [21][30][43] Memory and Storage - The memory and storage sector is experiencing a surge in prices, with DRAM prices expected to increase by over 95% in the first quarter, but there are concerns about the cyclical nature of this market [56][47] - Micron's recent performance has raised questions about the sustainability of its growth, especially as it faces technological transitions and potential oversupply issues in the future [46][59] Investment Strategies - The focus should be on companies with strong fundamentals, particularly in the semiconductor and memory sectors, as they are likely to recover faster in a volatile market [72][78] - Investors are encouraged to look for entry points in undervalued stocks, particularly those with solid fundamentals, rather than chasing high-flying names that may be more volatile [50][78] Market Outlook - The tech market is expected to remain volatile, with potential pullbacks that could create attractive buying opportunities for fundamentally strong companies [71][72] - The ongoing situation with China and its impact on U.S. tech companies remains a significant concern, as any substantial performance from China could affect market sentiment [54][55]

photoman/iStock via Getty Images Listen here or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify Tech Contrarians take on tech's tug of war between fear and greed (0:45) Software stock sell-off (2:45) Valuation concerns on Nvidia and others (9:10) Entry point alert example for Credo (17:00) What's going to happen with China? (18:30) Investing timelines (24:30) Transcript Rena Sherbill: Sara Awad from Tech Contrarians. Always great to talk to you on Investing Experts. Welcome back to the show. Sara Awad: Than ...

Since early November, fears of overvaluation have dragged on tech stocks. As major investment banks warned of possible corrections, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) has been volatile while also relatively flat since October 2025. In the three months since, it's gone from 23,348 to 23,461 -- a gain of less than half a percent. Meanwhile, Microsoft's 10% share price plunge after the release if its Jan. 28 earnings report, despite growing profits by 60% year over year, shows how high exp ...

[applause] So you just were on the west coast, 30,000 people at a conference for basket weaving. What what was the conference you were out at. >> The conference was Nurips, the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference, which is the largest AI conference in the world.>> So um you've been tracking AI as well as anyone I know. And I'm curious any takeaways from being there and what did it um uh you know fortify your thinking of the direction places are heading. Any new ahas. >> Many ahas.Top few in the ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record net revenue of EUR 32.7 billion for 2025, with a gross margin of 52.8% and a net income of EUR 9.6 billion, resulting in an earnings per share (EPS) of approximately EUR 25 [30][31] - EUV technology was the main driver of growth, with a 39% increase in sales compared to 2024, attributed to higher sales prices and increased productivity of tools [31][32] - The installed base business grew by 26%, indicating strong demand for service and upgrades [34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - EUV sales significantly contributed to revenue growth, while DUV sales decreased by 6%, primarily due to a decline in the Chinese market [33] - The company saw a 28% increase in applications related to process control at leading nodes, reflecting strong demand for advanced technology [34] - The installed base business reached EUR 8.2 billion, showcasing rapid growth and resilience [37] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Chinese market's contribution to total sales decreased from 33% to 29%, with expectations for further decline to around 20% in 2026 [36][82] - Memory accounted for 34% of sales, while logic represented 66%, with a projected shift towards memory becoming more significant in 2026 [35] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims for long-term revenue between EUR 44 billion and EUR 60 billion by 2030, with a focus on innovation and engineering to maintain leadership in the semiconductor industry [11][27] - The company is investing in AI and 3D integration technologies, as well as expanding its footprint to support customer service and manufacturing needs [24][27] - A significant reorganization is underway to streamline operations, reducing leadership positions while increasing engineering roles to enhance innovation [50][51] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of AI demand, which is expected to drive significant growth in advanced logic and memory segments [8][12] - The company anticipates a strong year for EUV in 2026, with increased shipments and productivity improvements [16][42] - Management acknowledged the need for capacity expansion among customers, particularly in the memory sector, which is seen as critical for market share [63][64] Other Important Information - The company is committed to community engagement, including investments in mobility, affordable housing, and cultural initiatives in Eindhoven [24][25][26] - A new share buyback program of EUR 12 billion over three years was announced, with a proposed dividend of EUR 7.50 per share for the year [39][40] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: What kind of restructuring costs or charges can be expected from the job cuts? - Management indicated that the costs would not be considered material in the grand scheme of ASML's finances [60] Question: How much of the capacity expansion announcements from customers is related to real capacity versus CapEx inflation? - Management clarified that capacity expansion translates directly into the need for more tools, with recent customer announcements indicating a strong commitment to new systems [61][62] Question: How is the AI memory shortage driving business, and how aggressive are customers in capacity expansion compared to logic? - Management noted that memory, particularly high-bandwidth memory for AI, is currently the bottleneck, leading to aggressive capacity expansion among memory customers [63][64] Question: How does the stabilizing AI market influence job growth in Eindhoven? - Management affirmed that long-term growth remains a priority, with ongoing job additions in manufacturing and customer service despite the restructuring in the technology team [67][68] Question: What changes will occur within the internal structure regarding D&E or R&D due to the reorganization? - Management confirmed that the transformation will primarily focus on D&E, aiming to improve interfaces and responsiveness within the organization [71][72] Question: Is the supply chain prepared for the new demand in machines? - Management stated that long lead time items have been secured, and the supply chain is aligned to increase capacity gradually based on strong customer signals [75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record net revenue of EUR 32.7 billion for 2025, with a gross margin of 52.8% and a net income of EUR 9.6 billion, resulting in an earnings per share (EPS) of approximately EUR 25 [30][31] - EUV technology was the main driver of growth, with a 39% increase in sales compared to 2024, attributed to higher sales prices and increased productivity of tools [31][32] - DUV sales decreased by 6%, primarily due to a decline in the Chinese market [33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The installed base business saw a 26% increase, driven by service revenue from EUV and upgrades [34] - Memory accounted for 34% of sales, while logic represented 66%, with expectations for memory to become more significant in 2026 [35] - The metrology and inspection business grew by almost 30%, reflecting increased demand for process control [20][21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Chinese market's contribution to total sales decreased from 33% to 20%, indicating a significant decline in system sales from China [36][82] - The company expects the memory market to tighten significantly in 2026, with customers aggressively expanding capacity [63][64] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow revenue to between EUR 44 billion and EUR 60 billion by 2030, maintaining a gross margin of 56%-60% [11] - The focus on AI is expected to drive demand for advanced technology, particularly EUV, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [10][16] - The company is restructuring its technology team to enhance agility and innovation, reducing leadership positions while increasing engineering roles [50][51] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of AI demand, which is expected to drive capacity investments from customers [8][9] - The company noted that the last three months have clarified the outlook for 2026, with customers increasingly committed to expanding capacity [5][6] - The management acknowledged the need for organizational simplification to improve responsiveness and innovation [49][52] Other Important Information - The company announced a new share buyback program of EUR 12 billion over three years, with a proposed dividend of EUR 7.50 per share for the year [39][40] - The company is committed to community engagement, including investments in mobility, affordable housing, and cultural initiatives [24][25][26] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: What kind of restructuring costs or charges can be expected from the job cuts? - Management indicated that the costs would not be considered material in the grand scheme of ASML's finances [60] Question: How much of the capacity expansion announcements from customers is related to real capacity versus CapEx inflation? - Management clarified that capacity expansion translates directly into the need for more tools, with significant customer commitments observed recently [61][62] Question: How is the AI memory shortage driving business, and how aggressive are customers in capacity expansion compared to logic? - Management noted that memory, particularly high-bandwidth memory for AI, is currently the bottleneck, leading to aggressive capacity expansion from memory customers [63][64] Question: How does the stabilizing AI market influence job growth in Eindhoven? - Management affirmed that long-term growth remains a priority, with job additions planned in manufacturing and customer service despite the restructuring in the technology team [67][68] Question: Does the reorganization affect the internal structure regarding D&E or R&D? - Management confirmed that the transformation will primarily focus on D&E, aiming to improve interfaces and responsiveness [71][72] Question: Is the supply chain prepared for the new demand in machines? - Management stated that they have been working with the supply chain to ensure readiness for increased capacity, with long lead time items already in place [73][75] Question: Is the decline in the Chinese market in absolute numbers? - Management confirmed that the Chinese market is indeed declining in absolute numbers, normalizing after a backlog built during the COVID period [82][84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record quarter and year, with net revenue of EUR 32.7 billion and a gross margin of 52.8% for 2025, resulting in a net income of EUR 9.6 billion and earnings per share of approximately EUR 25 [29][30]. - EUV technology was the main driver of growth, with a 39% increase in sales compared to 2024, attributed to higher sales prices and increased productivity of tools [30][31]. - The installed base business saw a 26% increase, reflecting strong demand for upgrades and services [33]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - EUV sales significantly contributed to revenue growth, while DUV sales decreased by 6%, primarily due to declines in the Chinese market [30][32]. - The installed base business reached EUR 8.2 billion, indicating rapid growth and resilience for the company [36]. - Applications related to metrology and inspection grew by nearly 30%, driven by the need for more process control at leading nodes [20][21]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates a decline in sales from China, projecting it to account for approximately 20% of total sales in 2026, down from 29% [35][78]. - Memory applications are expected to see increased demand, with DRAM customers aggressively expanding capacity due to high demand for AI-related memory [63][64]. - The overall semiconductor market is projected to grow significantly, with advanced logic and memory segments expected to exceed 20% year-on-year growth [12]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to continue investing in innovation, particularly in AI and advanced lithography technologies, to maintain its leadership position in the semiconductor industry [22][47]. - A significant restructuring is underway to streamline operations, reducing leadership roles while increasing engineering positions to enhance agility and responsiveness [49][50]. - The company aims to expand its footprint and capabilities, with plans for a new campus to support growth and customer service [26][27]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the sustainability of AI demand, which is expected to drive significant growth in the semiconductor market [5][6]. - The company anticipates a strong year for EUV in 2026, with increased shipments and a focus on advanced technology [15][41]. - The long-term revenue forecast remains between EUR 44 billion and EUR 60 billion by 2030, with a gross margin target of 56%-60% [11]. Other Important Information - The company is actively engaged in community initiatives, including infrastructure improvements and cultural investments in Eindhoven [23][24]. - A new collaboration with Mistral aims to integrate AI capabilities into the company's products and enhance core competencies [22]. Q&A Session Summary Question: What kind of restructuring costs or charges can be expected from the job cuts? - Management indicated that the costs would not be considered material in the grand scheme of ASML's finances, pending discussions with the Work Council [59]. Question: How much of the capacity expansion announcements from customers is related to real capacity versus CapEx inflation? - Management noted that customer capacity expansion translates directly into the need for more tools, with recent announcements indicating a strong commitment to new systems [61][62]. Question: How is the AI memory shortage driving business, and how aggressive are customers in capacity expansion compared to logic? - Management highlighted that memory, particularly high-bandwidth memory for AI, is currently the bottleneck, with DRAM customers showing significant appetite for capacity expansion [63][64]. Question: How does the stabilizing AI market influence job growth in Eindhoven? - The long-term growth trajectory remains positive, with plans to add jobs in manufacturing and customer service despite the restructuring in the technology team [66]. Question: What changes will occur within the internal structure regarding D&E or R&D due to the reorganization? - The transformation will primarily focus on D&E, aiming to improve interfaces with operations, customers, and suppliers [70]. Question: Is the supply chain prepared for the increased demand for new machines? - The company has worked with its supply chain to ensure readiness for increased capacity, gradually increasing the move rate to meet demand [72].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is positioned as a prime growth stock for investment, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence (AI) advancements, despite recent underperformance compared to the S&P 500 [4][20]. Company Performance - Nvidia's stock is currently trading around $186 per share, with a market capitalization of $4.5 trillion [3][13]. - The company has experienced a decline in stock performance over the last three months, alongside other major tech stocks like Microsoft and Meta Platforms [4]. - Nvidia's revenues have shifted significantly from gaming and professional visualization to data centers, indicating a strategic pivot towards more lucrative markets [15][16]. Product Development - At CES, Nvidia announced that its new Rubin GPU architecture is in full production, with shipments expected in the second half of 2026 [6]. - The Rubin platform consists of six integrated chips designed for AI applications, offering significant improvements in performance, including a five-fold increase in inference power and 3.5 times the training power compared to the previous Blackwell architecture [7][9]. - The Rubin GPU features 60% more transistors than Blackwell, continuing the trend of Moore's Law while also addressing AI workload bottlenecks through its integrated design [10]. Competitive Advantage - Nvidia's ability to innovate rapidly allows it to maintain high profit margins, with the company converting approximately 70 cents of every dollar in sales into gross profit [17]. - The company has a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.9 based on trailing earnings, but a more favorable 24.4 based on analysts' estimates for fiscal 2027, suggesting potential for significant earnings growth [18]. Investment Thesis - Nvidia is characterized as a growth stock that is not only maintaining its margins but also rapidly growing earnings, making it an attractive investment opportunity [19][20]. - The upcoming impact of the Rubin architecture is expected to enhance Nvidia's financial performance in the near future, positioning it as a compelling option for investors looking to allocate funds into AI-related stocks [20].

Group 1: Company Overview - Nova Ltd. is a leading provider of metrology equipment and software essential for semiconductor manufacturing, with a market cap of approximately $9.1 billion [2] - The company's share was trading at $403.62 as of January 12th, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 52.42 and 41.15 respectively [1][2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Nova achieved a revenue growth of 29% to $672 million, driven by strong demand across various industry segments [3] - The company reported a gross margin of 57.5%, an operating margin of 25.1%, and a net income margin of 27.3%, indicating strong profitability [4] - Free cash flow grew by 105% year-over-year to $210 million, showcasing effective cash generation [4] - Nova has a return on equity of 19.8% and a return on assets of 13.2%, reflecting effective capital utilization [4] Group 3: Market Position and Opportunities - The ongoing continuation of Moore's Law, advanced packaging technologies, and rising demand in AI, ML, IoT, and automotive semiconductors are expanding Nova's addressable market [3] - Growing global investment in fabrication facilities amid supply chain diversification creates new opportunities for equipment suppliers like Nova [3] - Nova's technology leadership and innovation-driven model position it well within the semiconductor ecosystem, making it a high-quality compounder poised for future growth [5] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - While cyclical industry trends and competitive pressures exist, Nova's strategic positioning and technology leadership provide a competitive edge [5] - The company is not among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds, with 22 hedge fund portfolios holding NVMI at the end of the second quarter, down from 25 in the previous quarter [7]

Summary of MKS Conference Call Company Overview - MKS has a strong track record in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and organic growth, focusing on being foundational to all technologies needed for advanced electronics [2][3] - The company addresses 85% of all wafer fab equipment globally, indicating a significant market share [3] Industry Insights - The advanced electronics industry is evolving, with AI being a major driver of growth, particularly in equipment orders for plating chemistry [8][9] - MKS's E&P (Electronics & Packaging) segment has seen substantial growth, contributing approximately 28% to revenues, with a growth rate of over 20% in the first nine months of 2025 [5][8] Key Growth Drivers - AI has driven demand for higher layer count HDI (High-Density Interconnect) and MLB (Multi-Layer Board) PCBs, leading to increased orders for plating chemistry and equipment [9][10] - MKS estimates that chemistry revenues related to AI now represent about 10% of total revenues, doubling from 2024 [14] Equipment and Revenue Dynamics - MKS anticipates a revenue timeline of 18 months from order to revenue recognition for equipment, with high gross margin chemistry revenues expected to follow [20][21] - For every $100 million of equipment sold, MKS expects to generate $20-$40 million in high gross margin chemistry annually [20] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - MKS is a market leader in chemistry and packaging, with a competitive edge due to its integrated approach of providing equipment, chemistry, and laser drilling [32][35] - The company has a strong R&D team and extensive tech centers co-located with customers, enhancing its ability to solve complex problems quickly [29][30] Financial Performance - MKS achieved gross margins of over 47% and aims for operating margins of 26% or more, with a disciplined approach to managing costs [62][64] - The company has prioritized deleveraging, paying down $400 million in debt in 2025, with a target net leverage of 2 to 2.5 times [71] Semiconductor Market Outlook - The semiconductor business has seen a 15% growth in the first nine months of 2025, driven by inventory burn and NAND upgrades [47][48] - MKS is well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in DRAM and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) markets, particularly in depth etch processes [54][55] Future Expectations - MKS expects continued healthy demand in 2026, driven by the equipment installed in 2025 and the ongoing growth in AI-related applications [25][24] - The company is preparing for a potential sustained ramp in semiconductor demand, with customers looking to secure supply chains ahead of anticipated growth [58][59] Conclusion - MKS is strategically positioned in the advanced electronics and semiconductor markets, leveraging its strong market share, integrated solutions, and R&D capabilities to capitalize on growth opportunities driven by AI and evolving industry demands [2][3][35]