王灵境 兴业证券通信分析师: 顾领导，大家晚上好。我是兴业通信的分析师王琳静。然后今天晚上给各位领导汇报一下 我们最新外发的一个 NPO 的一个行业深度报告。AR 光连接的现在和未来。那么这篇报告， 主要是分为三个部分。然后第一部分主要是介绍了什么是 NPO，以及它在这个数数据中心 当中是有哪些场景会用到它。以及他以及对他的一个产业链进行了一个简单的一个梳理。 然后第二部分，主要是主要是介绍了一下在这个 AI 时代之下，那么 MPO 它的一个主要的 一个增长逻辑，我们认为它主要是有三个比较重要的一个驱动因素。 然后第一个因素，就是它的，就是和这个光模块的一个需求量是，是紧密相关的。因为 NPO 它主要是配套这个光模块使用，所以随着光模块它数，它的这个用量和规格的一个增 加，那么 NPO 也是有望进入这个量价齐升的一个阶段。然后第二个增量来源主要是来自 于这个数据中心布线系统的一个趋势的一个变化。然后第三个增量来源主要是受于这个 CPO，主要是受受受于 CPO 方案的一个驱动。然后除然后除了大家所说的，因为现在大 家说的这个 CPU 一般都是比较狭义的，是 scale out 这个交换机 CPU CPU 交换机 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [3][6]. Core Views - The company, a leader in optical modules, is expected to achieve significant revenue growth driven by strong demand for computing infrastructure and an increasing proportion of high-speed optical modules in its product mix [6][7]. - The company's net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 98.0 to 118.0 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 89.50% to 128.17% [1]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on new optical solutions, including OCS, CPO, and 3.2T optical modules, to capture market opportunities in integrated optics [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 109.62 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 111.97% compared to the previous year [7]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 386.57 billion yuan, 687.61 billion yuan, and 925.25 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 62.00% and 77.88% [6][7]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a global leader in optical modules, benefiting from robust demand from end customers for computing infrastructure [6]. - The report notes that the company's product shipments are growing rapidly, with high-speed optical modules becoming a larger share of total sales [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates that the 1.6T optical module will see rapid growth starting in 2026, with significant orders already in place [5][6]. - The report suggests that the company's financial management capabilities will improve as it progresses with its Hong Kong listing and global business expansion, potentially mitigating short-term financial impacts [5][6].

ZJXC业绩交流要点梳理-20260131 1收入端：# 四季度收入环比三季度增长约30%，毛利率环比三季度提升不到2个百分点，主要系高端产品、硅光 产品出货比重增加。 # 毛利润额环比三季度增长约30%-35%。 2费用端：# 四季度费用绝对额环比三季度增加55-60%，主要系一次性费用（物料处理、未结算费用计提等）。 # 合并净利润环比三季度增长约20%，归母扣非净利润（按预告中位值）环比三季度增长约15%。 Q4研发费用增长系合作开发费用计提、新项目研发物料清理；# 财务费用增长系美元兑人民币下滑产生不到2亿元 的汇兑损失，# 较三季度多大几千万。 1收入端：# 四季度收入环比三季度增长约30%，毛利率环比三季度提升不到2个百分点，主要系高端产品、硅光 产品出货比重增加。 # 毛利润额环比三季度增长约30%-35%。 2费用端：# 四季度费用绝对额环比三季度增加55-60%，主要系一次性费用（物料处理、未结算费用计提等）。 # 合并净利润环比三季度增 ZJXC业绩交流要点梳理-20260131 25年硅光比例超过一半。 5物料情况（紧缺与储备）：上游光芯片仍偏紧，公司隔离器储备相对较好。 公司已提前锁定 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The telecommunications industry is expected to experience strong growth over the next three years, with leading companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng showing impressive performance, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [1][3] - The demand for the telecommunications sector is optimistic for 2026 and beyond, driven by overseas wafer factory expansions, GPU upgrades, VR glasses, and public demand [1][5] - The domestic computing power industry chain is set to initiate procurement and bidding for 2026 starting in the second half of 2025, with significant growth expected in the IDC sector [1][6] Key Insights and Arguments - The current GPU power consumption is high, with approximately 1.5GW for one million cards, leading to a total demand of around 5GW when including other devices [1][7] - Internet capital expenditure is expected to continue growing, which will drive demand in the IDC market, potentially leading to a supply-demand imbalance [1][8] - The SDN network is a significant growth area in the network equipment sector, with major internet companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent launching their SKAP network frameworks [1][9] Investment Opportunities - Companies with strong performance, such as Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Yuanjie, and Bochuang, are highlighted as key investment opportunities in the optical module sector [1][5] - The optical fiber industry is experiencing price increases, with G657A2 optical fibers in short supply, prompting operators to adjust bidding strategies [1][14] - New technology directions in optics, such as onboard optics, CPO, and NPO, present significant growth potential, with companies like Robertco and Zhichuang Technology being noteworthy [1][15] Market Dynamics - The IDC market is expected to see a significant increase in bidding activity, with a large-scale bidding market anticipated in early 2026 [1][6] - The optical communication sector is projected to be a critical allocation direction due to clear demand forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [1][13] - Second-tier module manufacturers may have opportunities to capture overflow orders, with the 800G and 1.6T market expected to reach 70-80 million units this year [1][17][18] Future Outlook - TSMC's capital expenditure plans for the next three years are significantly higher than expected, indicating a clear industry outlook [1][12] - The upcoming earnings forecasts are expected to alleviate concerns regarding fourth-quarter performance fluctuations and material impacts, leading to a focus on the first quarter and 2027 [1][19]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) closed at 583.2 yuan on January 9, 2026, reflecting a decline of 2.06% with a turnover rate of 3.49% and a trading volume of 385,700 hands, amounting to a total transaction value of 22.201 billion yuan [1]. Trading Information Summary - On January 9, the net outflow of main funds was 2.034 billion yuan, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 2.034 billion yuan, and retail investors experienced a slight net outflow of 50,430 yuan [2][5]. - There was one block trade on January 9, with institutions net selling 13.1844 million yuan [3][5]. Company Communication - The company’s secretary responded to investor inquiries, confirming that their products do not involve commercial aerospace and that specific production capacity data will be disclosed in periodic reports [4]. - The company is focusing on mainstream technology directions and will adhere to regulatory requirements for disclosing annual performance forecasts [4].

Group 1: Overall Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 10.68 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.50% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 680 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 65.26% [4] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 277 million CNY, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 212.76% [4] Group 2: Quarterly Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 3.40 billion CNY, which is a year-on-year increase of 20.93% [4] - The net profit for Q3 was 228 million CNY, reflecting a decrease of 11.49% compared to the previous year [4] - The comprehensive gross margin for Q3 was 35.56% [4] Group 3: Revenue Breakdown by Segment - Revenue from network equipment reached 9.268 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 37.90% [4] - Network security products generated revenue of 3.41 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 11.77% [4] - Cloud desktop revenue was 370 million CNY, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 3.86% [4] Group 4: Revenue Breakdown by Region - Domestic revenue was 8.844 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.96% [4] - Overseas revenue reached 1.836 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 47.81% [4] Group 5: Sales Model Analysis - Direct sales accounted for 61.22% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 52% [4] - Revenue from the distribution model was 4.558 billion CNY, making up 43% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 5% [4] Group 6: Market Position and Achievements - The company ranked first in the Chinese Ethernet optical network market and third in both Ethernet switch and data center switch markets according to IDC data [6] - In the data center market, revenue grew by 85% year-on-year, with the internet sector contributing approximately 5.2 billion CNY, accounting for 94% of the total [5] - The company secured significant contracts with Tier 1 clients for new generation data center network core switches [5] Group 7: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a positive outlook for the data center switch market in 2026, driven by strong demand from major clients like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent [8] - The overseas business is expected to continue its growth trajectory, focusing on Southeast Asia, Middle East, and Europe [12] - The company is well-positioned to adapt to the evolving market landscape, particularly in the context of supernode technology and high-bandwidth interconnect requirements [13]