2026 年 3 月 2 日 | 何利超 | | | --- | --- | | H70529@capital.com.tw | | | 目标价(元) | 700 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | | 通信 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2026/2/27) | | | 534.00 | | 深证成指(2026/2/27) | | | 14495.09 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | | 658.8/66.86 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | | 1111.12 | | A 股数(百万) | | | 1105.50 | | A 市值(亿元) | | | 5903.37 | | 主要股东 | | 山东中际投资 | | | | | 控股有限公司 | | | | | | (10.93%) | | 每股净值(元) | | | 27.00 | | 股价/账面净值 | | | 19.78 | | | 一个月 三个月 | | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | -14.0 | | 3.8 378.3 | | 近期评等 | | | | | 2025.11.06 | 买进 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **AI**, **CPU**, and **optical fiber communication** industries, highlighting the performance of companies like **Lumentum**, **长飞 (Changfei)**, and **亨通 (Hengtong)** during the 2026 Spring Festival period [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI and Agent Technology**: The application of Agent technology is driving demand for personal terminal devices, with significant updates from major players like **字节跳动 (ByteDance)** and **阿里巴巴 (Alibaba)**, as well as overseas models like **GPT-3.1** and **Cloud 4.6** [2]. - **CPU Market Performance**: Companies in the CPU sector, particularly **Lumentum**, have shown strong performance despite challenges in the market, with expectations for rationality as new product launches approach [2]. - **Optical Fiber Communication Growth**: Companies like **长飞** and **亨通** are benefiting from domestic infrastructure projects and global division of labor, with high-end product exports contributing to growth potential [1][2]. - **CPO Technology Impact**: CPO technology has a limited impact on power consumption reduction (2%-4%), and the stability of AI infrastructure is deemed crucial for large capital expenditure projects [7][8]. - **NPU Adoption**: The NPU (Network Processing Unit) solution is expected to gain traction, potentially increasing shipment volumes significantly by 2027 [9]. Emerging Trends - **Cabinet Market Dynamics**: The optical communication field is seeing a shift towards low-power, high-efficiency optical interconnection solutions, with CPU and NPU becoming mainstream choices [3]. - **Silicon Photonics Development**: Companies like **新易盛 (NewEase)** are advancing in silicon photonics, with the potential for large-scale production of core components [11][12]. - **Challenges in Silicon-Based Technology**: The industry faces challenges related to light emission, heat control, and signal modulation, necessitating collaboration across the supply chain [13]. Market Opportunities - The optical communication market is viewed as a growth opportunity for both established and emerging companies, with various regions (Mainland China, Taiwan, North America) having unique advantages [5]. - A-share companies in the optical communication sector are considered to have investment value, particularly in the context of an expanding market [6]. Additional Insights - **AI Application Penetration**: Currently, only about 0.01% of the population is paying for AI services, but this is expected to grow rapidly with advancements in model capabilities [16]. - **User Behavior Changes**: There is a notable shift in user behavior from app engagement to API interactions via agents, leading to increased uncertainty in software ecosystems [17]. - **Domestic Inference Computing Limitations**: Domestic inference computing is currently insufficient to meet the demand for agent overflow, highlighting a need for improved infrastructure [19]. - **Future AI Trends**: The proliferation of personal agents is anticipated to lead to exponential growth in token consumption and hardware demand, particularly for GPUs [20][21].

Group 1 - The company is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 31.07 to 56.21 billion yuan and a net profit of 12.51 to 21.70 billion yuan by February 10, 2026, according to Chaoyang Yongxu's quarterly performance forecast data [1][5][6] - Tianfeng Securities predicts that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 9.4 to 9.9 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 231.24% to 248.86% [2][8] - The fourth quarter performance is expected to show significant growth due to increased demand for computing power and high-speed products, driven by AIGC technology [2][8] Group 2 - AIGC technology is expected to double the capacity of large-scale data centers within the next four years, with total capacity projected to grow nearly threefold by 2030 [3][9] - The development of AI clusters is accelerating the application of high-speed optical modules, with an expectation that by 2027, 20% of Ethernet data center switch ports will be used to connect servers supporting AI tasks [3][9] - The company is accelerating the shipment of 1.6T and silicon photonics products, with production from its Thailand factory expected to support its position as a global core supplier [3][9]

个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 -39% 34% 106% 179% 251% 323% 396% 468% 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 2026.02 新易盛 沪深300 通信设备 分析师：李璐毅 登记编码：S0730524120001 lily2@ccnew.com 021-50586278 净利润高速增长，硅光产品批量出货 ——新易盛(300502)公司点评报告 证券研究报告-公司点评报告 买入(维持) 市场数据(2026-02-06) | 收盘价(元) | 364.06 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 472.00/65.64 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 4,643.60 | | 市净率(倍) | 24.91 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 3,223.46 | | 基础数据(2025-09-30) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 14.61 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | 4.67 | | 毛利率(%) | 47.25 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 43.56 | | 资产负债率(%) | 31.99 ...

通信设备 分析师：李璐毅 登记编码：S0730524120001 lily2@ccnew.com 021-50586278 净利润高速增长，硅光产品批量出货 ——新易盛(300502)公司点评报告 证券研究报告-公司点评报告 买入(维持) 市场数据(2026-02-06) | 收盘价(元) | 364.06 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低(元) | 472.00/65.64 | | 沪深 300 指数 | 4,643.60 | | 市净率(倍) | 24.91 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 3,223.46 | | 基础数据(2025-09-30) | | | 每股净资产(元) | 14.61 | | 每股经营现金流(元) | 4.67 | | 毛利率(%) | 47.25 | | 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) | 43.56 | | 资产负债率(%) | 31.99 | | 总股本/流通股(万股) | 99,400.93/88,541.91 | | B 股/H 股(万股) | 0.00/0.00 | 个股相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：中原证券研究所，聚源 -39% 34% 106% ...

【投资建议】 【事项】 2026 年1 月30 日，新易盛发布2025 年度业绩预告，本年度公司归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 94.0~99.0 亿元， 同比+231.24%~248.86%；预计本年度非经常性损益对公司净利润的影响约为3300 万 元，扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为93.67~98.67 亿元，同比+231.02%~248.69%。单季度来看，公司 2025Q4 归属于上市公司股东的净利润为30.73~35.73 亿元，环比+28.85%~49.82%，相比于Q3 0.63%的 环比增速，Q4 业绩增速实现显著提升；扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为30.66~35.66 亿元，环比 +29.49%~50.61%。 【评论】 算力时代铸就光模块巨头，主营业务内生驱动高质量盈利。随着各大云计算厂商和超大规模数据中心加 速部署AI 集群，800G 及更高速率的光模块逐步成为刚性需求，而新易盛作为全球高速光模块的核心供 应商之一，直接受益于算力投资持续增长，高速率光模块产品需求快速提升，预计2025 年度销售收入 和净利润较上年同期大幅增加。在2026 年，公司1.6T 光模块相关业务将处于持续放量的阶段 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant revenue and profit growth due to the increasing demand for high-speed optical modules, particularly driven by AI computing and data communication markets [5][6]. - The company has established a strong competitive advantage through its technological expertise in high-speed circuit design and optical packaging, which supports high-margin product offerings [5][6]. - The company's overseas production capacity is expected to alleviate risks associated with geopolitical tensions and tariff fluctuations, enhancing order fulfillment capabilities [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2025, the company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86% [1]. - The net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to be between 3.073 billion to 3.573 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 28.85% to 49.82% [1]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company anticipates revenues of 26.255 billion yuan in 2025, 44.707 billion yuan in 2026, and 58.102 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 203.64% and 70.28% [7]. - The net profit is expected to reach 9.667 billion yuan in 2025, 16.622 billion yuan in 2026, and 21.674 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 240.64% and 71.95% [7]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a key supplier of high-speed optical modules, benefiting from the ongoing investment in AI and data centers [5][6]. - The company has a solid technological foundation and R&D capabilities, particularly in silicon photonics, which is expected to enhance its market position [5][6].

Q4 毛利率预计持续提升，未来1.6T/硅光产品有望进一步提高盈利能力： 事件： 公司2025年业绩预告，2025年公司预计实现归母净利润98-118亿元，同比增长90%-128%；扣非归母净 利润97-117亿元，同比增长91%-131%。其中Q4预计归母净利润27-47亿元，同比增长90%-231%。业绩 符合预期。 算力需求带动业绩增长，Q4 业绩受子公司亏损影响：报告期内受益于终端客户对算力基础设施的强劲 投入，公司产品出货较快增长，其中高速光模块占比持续提高，且随着产品方案不断优化、运营效率继 续提升，公司营业收入与净利润均较去年同期实现较大增长，我们预计后续伴随1.6T 加速出货以及公 司硅光方案缓解光芯片等物料紧缺影响，2026 年业绩有望持续高增长。报告期内计提存货减值、应收 账款信用减值合计1.13亿元，股票激励等项目合计减少净利润2.23 亿元，汇兑损失2.7 亿元；另一方面 投资收益及公允价值变动收益合计增加净利润2.96 亿元。整体看四季度净利率预计环比小幅下滑，主要 受控股子公司君歌电子四季度亏损7000-8000 万影响，此外汇兑损失、研发费用计提等因素同样影响利 润表现。 公司电 ...

新易盛正处于产品迭代的关键交接期，目前正加速从800G向更高速率的1.6T产品渗透。公司明确表 示，预计1.6T产品在2025年第四季度至2026年将进入持续放量的阶段。此外，在备受行业关注的硅光技 术领域，新易盛也展现了较强的技术储备，称其在硅光芯片设计方面具备充足的研发实力，并预估2026 年硅光产品在公司业务中的占比将呈现明显的提升趋势。这些新产品的放量被视为公司未来保持高增长 质量和高利润水平的核心驱动力。 Q：新易盛目前在1.6T光模块产品的研发和量产进度上有什么最新规划？ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for 2025, with estimates ranging from 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 90% to 128% [6]. - The demand for computing power is driving the company's performance, with a notable increase in the shipment of high-speed optical modules [6]. - The company maintains its position as a global leader in the optical module sector, with new technologies like 1.6T and silicon photonics progressing well [6]. Financial Summary - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 112.63 billion, 201.26 billion, and 280.23 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 117.8%, 78.7%, and 39.23% [8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 10.14, 18.11, and 25.22 RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 119.96%, 78.69%, and 39.23% [8]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 64, 36, and 26, respectively [8]. Market Position - The company is recognized as the world's leading manufacturer of optical modules, maintaining a strong market position as per the LightCounting 2023 rankings [6]. - The company's 1.6T optical module products are expected to enter mass production in the second half of 2026, contributing to revenue growth [6].