Core Viewpoint - The company expects significant growth in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, driven by strong demand in the optical communication industry and the introduction of advanced technologies like silicon photonics and 1.6T modules [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 98 to 118 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 89.50% to 128.17% [1]. - The net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between 97 billion and 117 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 91.38% to 130.84% [1]. - In Q4, the company achieved a net profit of 36.7 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 158.53% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.94% [1]. Group 2: Market Trends and Product Development - The company is set to officially start shipping 1.6T products to key customers in Q3 2025, with rapid growth expected in Q4 [2]. - The proportion of silicon photonics in the product mix is increasing, particularly in the 1.6T segment, which is expected to enhance gross margins [2]. - The company is actively positioning itself in the scale-up market, anticipating significant demand for optical connection products starting in 2027 [3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company has accumulated extensive experience and technical expertise in the scale-out market, enabling it to develop complex products for scale-up optical connection scenarios [3]. - Collaborations with key customers for customized product development are underway, with sample validation expected in 2026 and large-scale deployment anticipated in 2027 [3]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 396.40 billion, 793.00 billion, and 1222.40 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 109.31 billion, 225.27 billion, and 353.62 billion yuan [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 58, 28, and 18 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "recommended" rating [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 9.8 to 11.8 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 89.50% to 128.17% [2]. - The company is positioned to maintain its leading status in the new scenarios of the industry, particularly in the silicon photonics and 1.6T markets, which are expected to enhance profitability [8]. - The company has faced challenges such as foreign exchange losses and material shortages but still recorded significant growth in Q4, with a net profit of 3.67 billion yuan, up 158.53% year-on-year [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A: 23.86 billion yuan, 2025E: 39.64 billion yuan, 2026E: 79.30 billion yuan, and 2027E: 122.24 billion yuan, with growth rates of 122.6%, 66.1%, 100.1%, and 54.1% respectively [3][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 5.17 billion yuan in 2024, 10.93 billion yuan in 2025, 22.53 billion yuan in 2026, and 35.36 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 137.9%, 111.4%, 106.1%, and 57.0% respectively [3][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 4.65 yuan in 2024, 9.84 yuan in 2025, 20.27 yuan in 2026, and 31.83 yuan in 2027 [3][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding into the scale-up market, which is expected to see bandwidth demands increase significantly, potentially reaching 5-10 times that of the scale-out market [8]. - The company has developed customized products in collaboration with key clients, with expectations for sample validation in 2026 and large-scale deployment in 2027 [8].

[盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 23,862 | 39,640 | 79,300 | 122,240 | | 增长率（%） | 122.6 | 66.1 | 100.1 | 54.1 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 5,171 | 10,931 | 22,527 | 35,362 | | 增长率（%） | 137.9 | 111.4 | 106.1 | 57.0 | | 每股收益（元） | 4.65 | 9.84 | 20.27 | 31.83 | | PE（X） | 122 | 58 | 28 | 18 | | PB（X） | 32.9 | 21.6 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 02 月 09 日收盘价） 中际旭创（300308.SZ）2025 年业绩预增点评 业绩符合预期，看好公司在未来新场景下维持领先 glmszqdatema ...

公司点评 报告信息 文中报告节选自天风证券（维权）研究所已公开发布研究报告，具体报告内容及相关风险提示等详见完整版报告。 证券研究报告：《算力浪潮驱动业绩跃升，1.6T 开启增长新篇章》 对外发布时间：2026年02月02日 报告发布机构：天风证券股份有限公司 本报告分析师： 王奕红 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517090004 余芳沁 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110521080006 唐海清 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517030002 公司点评 报告信息 文中报告节选自天风证券（维权）研究所已公开发布研究报告，具体报告内容及相关风险提示等详见完整版报告。 证券研究报告(以下统称"本报告")署名分析师在此声明:我们具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨 询执业资格或相当的专业胜任能力,本报告所表述的所有观点均准确地反映了我们对标的证券和发行人的 个人看法。我们所得报酬的任何部分不曾与,不与,也将不会与本报告中的具体投资建议或观点有直接或 间接联系。除非另有规定,本报告中的所有材料版权均属天风证券股份有限公司(已获中国证监会许可的 证券投资咨询业务资格】及其附属机构(以下统称"天风证券")。未经天风 ...

东吴证券研报指出，天孚通信业绩符合预期，看好新产品贡献。公司预计2025年归母净利润为18.8-21.5 亿元，同比增长40%~60%，扣非净利润为18.3-21.1亿元，同比增长39.19%-60.40%。认为25年第四季度 人民币加速升值，汇兑损失对公司业绩的负向影响或进一步加重，公司核心产品处于代际切换期，客户 拉货节奏及上游物料供应情况对季度业绩影响较大。公司在1.6T和CPO布局领先，与头部客户深度绑 定，有望核心受益行业需求释放，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the telecommunications sector's performance forecasts are gradually being disclosed, and the long-term upward trend of the industry remains unchanged [1] - The industry is experiencing a continuous optimization of customer structure and an expected strengthening of order traction due to the ongoing overseas rollout of 800G and accelerated introduction of 1.6T [1] - Major companies like Google are maintaining high capital expenditures and hardware iterations, driving explosive growth in related MPO businesses [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued an action plan to promote the high-quality development of industrial internet platforms, aiming for a platform penetration rate of over 55% by 2028 [1] - The communication ETF (515880) has seen a remarkable annual increase of 125.81% in 2025, ranking first in the market, with a scale of 14.15 billion yuan as of January 19, 2025 [2] - As of December 22, 2025, the communication ETF's optical module content accounted for over 48%, with nearly 20% from servers, indicating a strong fundamental backing for overseas computing power [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) closed at 583.2 yuan on January 9, 2026, reflecting a decline of 2.06% with a turnover rate of 3.49% and a trading volume of 385,700 hands, amounting to a total transaction value of 22.201 billion yuan [1]. Trading Information Summary - On January 9, the net outflow of main funds was 2.034 billion yuan, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 2.034 billion yuan, and retail investors experienced a slight net outflow of 50,430 yuan [2][5]. - There was one block trade on January 9, with institutions net selling 13.1844 million yuan [3][5]. Company Communication - The company’s secretary responded to investor inquiries, confirming that their products do not involve commercial aerospace and that specific production capacity data will be disclosed in periodic reports [4]. - The company is focusing on mainstream technology directions and will adhere to regulatory requirements for disclosing annual performance forecasts [4].