Citi Research China Economics December 12, 2025 Charting the New Economy Some Reflections on Macro-Micro Disconnect Xiangrong Yu, PhD AC Managing Director Head of Greater China Economics xiangrong.yu@citi.com +852 2501-2574 Xinyu Ji AC Vice President China Economist xinyu.ji@citi.com +852 2501-2792 See AppendixA-1 for AnalystCertification, Important Disclosures and ResearchAnalystAffiliations Citi Research is a division of Citigroup Global Markets Inc. (the "Firm"), which does and seeks to do business with ...

固收-2026 流动性：总量时代的转折？20251209 摘要 中国金融正经历转型，政府债券发行规模超过新增信贷，2025 年政府 债券净融资预计达 14.5 万亿人民币，或超新增信贷，2026 年或将接近 16 万亿人民币，标志着社融结构重大变化，适度宽松政策重心转向支撑 社融，为新经济发展提供环境。 新经济依赖长期耐心资本，对货币政策提出新要求，传统降准降息刺激 信贷方式不再适用。当前"适度宽松"旨在通过政府杠杆稳定社融总量， 避免金融风险暴露，支持新旧动能转换，并非传统乘数效应放大杠杆。 银行体系资产负债结构变化显著，政府加杠杆成稳社融关键。剔除政府 影响，整体资产负债规模实际收缩。央行通过公开市场操作提供流动性， 填补资金缺口，未来信贷需求下降将降低政府加杠杆需求。 2025 年货币政策关键词为"择机"，降准降息需考虑全球宏观环境、 美联储政策及中国重大政策。同时强调"反内卷"，打击手工补息等不 合理竞争，维护正常收益率曲线，优化金融业务开展方式。 银行在经济转型中面临贷款对象选择挑战，需平衡市场原则与战略需求， 通过总量政策和结构性工具支持新兴动能企业和债务化解。扩大直接融 资比例是降低实体融资成本 ...

转自：新华财经 编辑：谈瑞 12月5日，2025东方财富私募风云际会论坛在贵州贵阳成功举行。本次论坛以"科创引领新经济 数智驱 动新发展"为主题，邀请业内精英共商资本市场新形势，共绘数智蓝图，驱动高质量发展新引擎，共谱 金融强国华章。 科技与数智的融合是塑造金融新格局，培养新增长、新动能的关键所在。东方财富总经理郑立坤在致辞 时表示，作为一家互联网科技企业，东方财富"以科技为指引，以数智为驱动"，在助力财富管理事业的 同时积极探索，致力于做新质生产力的发现者、培育者和赋能者。"我们不仅要拥抱数字化浪潮，借助 AI、大数据等技术重构行业全链条，重塑核心竞争力，更要聚焦科技创新，深耕产业与技术，发掘潜 力标的，实现价值培育与长期回报的双赢。未来还要强化行业协作，增进多元沟通、凝聚共识、共赢发 展"。他表示，东方财富真诚期待与各位合作伙伴一同把握时代脉搏、优化行业生态，携手前行、优势 互补，以科技创新点燃新经济的引擎，以数智资源推动高质量的发展，描绘金融发展宏图，肩负金融强 国的时代责任。 东方财富证券研究所副所长、首席策略官陈果发表了以《踏浪逐牛，再攀高峰——2025年中国股市回 顾》为主题的演讲。他认为，202 ...

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Event Announcement - Bloomberg New Economy Forum 欢迎印度尼西亚共和国第七任总统佐科·维多多 (H.E. Ir. H. Joko Widodo) [1]

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Research on China's Economic Situation Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy**, particularly the **housing market** and the implications of **anti-involution policies** on various sectors, including **automobiles**, **solar cells**, **batteries**, **chemicals**, and **electric vehicles (EVs)** [2][16][30]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Structure**: China's economy is characterized by a decentralized resource allocation system, contrasting with the Soviet command economy. The Communist Party of China (CPC) sets broad economic priorities, while local agencies implement policies [3][4]. 2. **Overcapacity Issues**: Current overcapacity is more systemic than in previous years, affecting traditional sectors like coal, steel, and cement, as well as new sectors like EVs and e-commerce. Approximately **26%** of total industrial production is impacted by anti-involution policies [8][11]. 3. **Excess Capacity and Price Competition**: Intense price competition, termed "involution," is prevalent across various sectors, leading to significant profit margin pressures. The auto industry has seen payment delays to suppliers extend to **182 days** [12][18]. 4. **Impact of Tax System**: The Value Added Tax (VAT) system incentivizes local governments to prioritize production over consumption, contributing to excess capacity. Shifting VAT collection from production to sales could help address this issue [7][40]. 5. **Real Estate Market Challenges**: The housing market continues to struggle with high inventories and declining transactions. Major cities have seen new home prices drop by only **11%**, while new home starts have contracted by **77%** since 2021 [37][38]. 6. **Government Response**: The government has introduced measures to control production levels and stabilize prices, particularly in the auto sector. However, the effectiveness of these measures is questioned due to the slow pace of structural reforms [32][35]. 7. **Future Economic Growth**: The transition from a real estate-driven economy to a new economy focused on high-value manufacturing faces significant challenges. The new economy's contribution to GDP growth remains limited, and excess capacity could hinder overall economic expansion [29][31]. Additional Important Insights - **Structural Reforms**: The ongoing structural transformation initiated in 2015 has not progressed as expected, with the new economy not expanding quickly enough to offset declines in the real estate sector [22][30]. - **Consumer Demand Support**: While there have been efforts to support consumer demand, the scale of these initiatives (0.4% of GDP) is insufficient to significantly impact deflation [36]. - **Long-term Risks**: If the anti-involution policies overly focus on preventing price cuts without addressing structural issues, it may lead to prolonged adjustments in inventories and deeper deflation [38][39]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the J.P. Morgan report on China's economic landscape, highlighting the complexities and challenges faced by various sectors amid ongoing policy shifts.

Event Announcement - Bloomberg New Economy Forum 欢迎新加坡外交部长 Vivian Balakrishnan 博士 [1] Forum Details - 更多论坛详情请访问提供的链接 [1]

Core Insights - Nvidia is positioned as a leader in two critical sectors of the new economy: artificial intelligence (AI) and gaming, which are driving significant growth and innovation in the technology landscape [1] Group 1: AI Sector - Nvidia's GPUs are essential for AI applications, with the company experiencing a surge in demand for its products, leading to a projected revenue increase of 50% year-over-year [1] - The company has established partnerships with major tech firms to enhance AI capabilities, further solidifying its market position [1] Group 2: Gaming Sector - Nvidia continues to dominate the gaming industry, with its latest graphics cards receiving positive reviews and driving sales growth [1] - The gaming segment is expected to contribute significantly to Nvidia's overall revenue, reflecting a strong consumer demand for high-performance gaming hardware [1]

Core Insights - China experienced a significant increase in ultra-wealthy individuals, with a record 1,434 individuals on the Hurun Rich List, marking a 31% increase from the previous year [1][6] - The collective wealth of these individuals reached 30 trillion yuan, reflecting a 42% rise compared to last year [2] - The surge in wealth is attributed to a bull market in stocks and the emergence of leaders from "new economy" companies [1][7] Individual Wealth Highlights - Zhong Shanshan reclaimed the top position with a fortune of 530 billion yuan, a 56% increase [3] - Zhang Yiming, founder of ByteDance, fell to second place despite a 34% increase in his wealth to 470 billion yuan [4] - Li Ka-shing and his son Victor Li saw their wealth rise 18% to 235 billion yuan, although they dropped from sixth to ninth place overall [5][8] Market Dynamics - The record number of individuals on the Hurun list is largely driven by a strong rally in stock markets [6] - The technology sector's growth and increased exports contributed to the expansion of the billionaire club [7]