Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that there is no immediate need for concern regarding the recent rise in DR001, as it is still operating near the policy interest rate level, specifically at an average of 1.35% for the second half of 2025, which is below the 1.4% 7D OMO rate [4][5] - The statement "guiding overnight rates to operate near the policy interest rate" does not equate to having the average overnight rate equal to the policy rate, indicating that the current level of DR001 is acceptable [4][5] - Recent increases in DR001, reaching 1.42% on January 22, 2026, are not alarming as this value is only at the 86th percentile since the second half of 2025 and reflects a return to normal levels rather than an extreme rise [6][7] Group 2 - The average values of DR001 from July to January show that December was relatively low at 1.29%, and the recent rise is merely a correction towards normal levels, with averages in other months around 1.37% [7] - The article emphasizes that if DR001's deviation from the policy rate is limited over a period, it indicates a "surrounding model," suggesting that short-term fluctuations should not be over-interpreted in terms of monetary policy stance [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The current bond yield is in a state where the upward space is relatively small and the downward probability is relatively large. Investors can be more optimistic than in the first quarter of this year [1][9] - In the near future, DR007 will steadily fall back to near the OMO rate. The "positive deviation" of DR007 from the 7D OMO rate since the first quarter of this year will return to normal, and relevant events in April accelerated this process [1][11][17] - The regulator should adopt a "soft landing" and "gradual" strategy in guiding the downward movement of the capital interest rate, which helps investors form stable expectations for monetary policy [4][21] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Wait for DR007 to Return to OMO - On April 30, the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds had decreased by 3.6bp and 10.4bp respectively compared to April 25, which was consistent with the previous judgment [1][9] - Since 2018, DR007 has mostly run smoothly around the 7D OMO rate. In extreme cases such as 2020 and 2022, there were "negative deviations", and in the first quarter of this year, there was a "positive deviation" [2][14] - Whether it is a "positive deviation" or a "negative deviation", it is only temporary. The "negative deviation" in 2020 and 2022 only lasted for a few months and then returned to normal [3][17] - As the liquidity of the banking system becomes more abundant, the lending rate of large banks will also decline. The CD rate still has room to decline, and the decline of DR007 can guide the reduction of CD and other rates [3][21]