1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the excess reserve ratio rose to 1.3%, still at a low level for the end - of - quarter month and lower than expected. The central bank maintained the normalization of capital prices by supporting bank lending. In July, the central bank aimed to keep liquidity relatively loose within the existing framework, with the excess reserve ratio expected to be around 1.2%. In August, the excess reserve ratio is projected to be about 1.1%, remaining at a neutral level in recent years. The probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in August is low, but the central bank may still maintain relatively loose liquidity [2][3]. - The fluctuation of the capital market in July was related to the improvement of the equity market sentiment, especially the freezing of funds due to new stock listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The capital market in August may continue the tone of July, and attention should be paid to whether DR001 can break through the lower limit of 1.3% at the beginning of the month [2][33][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Quarter - end Central Bank Claims Did Not Rise Unexpectedly, and the Increase in the Excess Reserve Ratio in June Was Weaker than Seasonal - In June, the excess reserve ratio rose by about 0.3pct to 1.3%, lower than the expected 1.5%, due to the central bank's claims on other depository corporations not rising additionally as expected to offset the previous decline. After the central bank announced the liquidity injection of various tools in May, the difference between the central bank's claims on other depository corporations and high - frequency data decreased, and its follow - up normalization needs attention [6]. - In June, the fiscal deposit decreased by 5722 billion yuan, less than the expected 7400 billion yuan. The expenditure progress of special refinancing bonds was slow, and the repurchase of treasury cash time deposits might have led to an additional increase in government deposits. Other factors such as currency issuance, central bank legal deposit reserves, and foreign exchange funds were close to expectations [8]. - Despite the relatively low excess reserve ratio, the net lending scale of banks continued to rise in June, and the central DR001 rate dropped below 1.4%, indicating that the central bank was normalizing capital prices by supporting bank lending [15]. 3.2. In July, the Central DR001 Rate Was Stable but with Increased Fluctuations, and the Central Bank Maintained Relative Looseness within the Existing Framework - In July, although the supply pressure of government bonds remained high, the general fiscal revenue and expenditure might show an anti - seasonal deficit, and the expenditure of replacement bonds was expected to bring additional government deposit injections. It was estimated that government deposits would increase by about 450 billion yuan, and the consumption of excess reserves would weaken marginally. Credit lending decline might lead to a decrease in bank reserve payments by about 90 billion yuan. Currency issuance might increase by about 30 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds might continue to withdraw about 50 billion yuan. In the open market, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations might rise by about 260 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was expected to be about 1.2% [15]. - In July, DR001 once exceeded 1.35%, and 1.3% seemed to become the new lower limit. The average DR001 for the whole month did not decline significantly but fluctuated more. The decline in non - bank capital demand led to a decline in DR007 despite the decrease in bank net lending. This might indicate that the central bank had achieved policy normalization and hoped to maintain relatively loose liquidity within the existing framework, resulting in stable but more volatile capital interest rates [27]. - The increased fluctuation of the capital market in late July might be related to the improvement of the equity market sentiment, especially the freezing of funds due to new stock listings on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The freezing and unfreezing of funds on the Beijing Stock Exchange might only impact the inter - bank liquidity under special circumstances [33]. - The cross - month progress of institutions in July was generally slow, but the abundant capital supply ensured the looseness of the capital market at the end of the month [37]. 3.3. In August, Relative Looseness May Still Be Maintained within the Existing Framework, and Attention Should Be Paid to Whether the Central Bank Continues to Relax Controls and Amplify Fluctuations - In August, although the general fiscal deficit might be higher than the same period in previous years, and the expenditure of replacement bonds might still cause additional leakage of government deposits, the net supply of government bonds was also at a high level. It was estimated that government deposits would decrease by about 50 billion yuan. Reserve payments might increase seasonally, currency issuance might increase by about 50 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds might continue to withdraw about 50 billion yuan. In the open market, the central bank's claims on other depository corporations might decline by about 430 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was expected to be about 1.1% [3][43]. - Since July, the central bank has emphasized the implementation of existing policies. The threshold for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has increased, and it is not the baseline expectation for August. However, the central bank's concern about bond investment risks has decreased, and it may still tend to maintain relatively loose liquidity within the existing framework in August [3][56]. - In August, the capital market may continue the tone of July. Attention should be paid to whether DR001 can break through the lower limit of 1.3% at the beginning of the month. If so, the central bank may further relax controls on bank lending, increasing the fluctuation of the capital market. Although the exogenous disturbances such as the tax period in August may decrease, the decline in the central DR001 and DR007 rates may be limited [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the liquidity situation from May to July 2025, predicting that the excess reserve ratio in June will reach 1.5%, and in July it will be around 1.3%. It also points out that the central bank may have adjusted its monetary policy operation target to focus on DR001, and the funding rate in July is expected to continue to decline, maintaining an optimistic outlook on the July liquidity environment [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 May: Central Bank's Continuous Additional Withdrawal and Slow Disbursement of Replacement Bonds Lead to Lower - than - Expected Increase in Excess Reserve Ratio - In May, the excess reserve ratio rose by about 0.1pct to 1.0%, lower than the expected 1.2%, remaining at the lowest level in the same period since 2019. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations decreased by an additional about 140 billion yuan, and the cumulative decline since March exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan [6] - Fiscal deposits in May increased by 28.1 billion yuan, slightly higher than expected. The government deposit decreased by an additional 53 billion yuan compared to the sum of the general fiscal surplus and net government bond payments, lower than the expected 65 billion yuan. The progress of special refinancing bonds in May might still be lower than expected [8] - The cash return in May was slow, and the reserve requirement and foreign exchange funds were close to expectations. The central bank's claims on the government decreased by 8.42 billion yuan, and the increase compared to before the central bank started bond - buying in July last year was less than 1 trillion yuan [8] 3.2 June: Excess Reserves Return to Neutral, and the Central Bank Promotes Funding Normalization Step by Step with DR001 as the Anchor - In June, the government deposit is expected to decrease by about 74 billion yuan, which is an important source of liquidity supplement. The reserve requirement may consume about 32 billion yuan of excess reserves, currency issuance may increase by about 3 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds may withdraw about 5 billion yuan. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations are expected to increase by about 1.23 trillion yuan month - on - month, and the excess reserve ratio is expected to be about 1.5%, up about 0.5pct from May [11] - The central bank disclosed the liquidity injection situation of various central bank tools in May and announced the tender information of repurchase - style reverse repurchase one day before the operation, which is interpreted as an attempt to increase policy transparency, but it is still difficult to fully convey the central bank's policy intention [24][27] - In June, the central bank's net lending center of banks continued to rise, accompanied by a decline in funding rates. DR007 did not fall to the expected 1.4% - 1.5% range, while the average value of DR001 fell below 1.4%, which may reflect a change in the central bank's funding regulation model. The central bank may have adjusted its monetary policy operation target to focus on DR001 [29][35] 3.3 In a Steady - State Environment, the Lower Limit of Funding Easing Has Not Been Reached, and Funding Rates in July Are Expected to Continue to Decline - In July, the government deposit is expected to increase by about 46 billion yuan month - on - month, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years, and the consumption of excess reserves will be marginally weakened. The reserve requirement may decrease by about 10 billion yuan, currency issuance may increase by about 3 billion yuan, and foreign exchange funds may continue to withdraw about 5 billion yuan. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations are expected to decrease by about 24 billion yuan month - on - month, and the excess reserve ratio is expected to be about 1.3%, down 0.2pct from June [42] - As of June, the average value of DR001 has fallen close to the policy rate. Whether it can continue to decline in July is the core issue of market concern. Although the central bank maintains the goal of restricting the rapid decline of interest rates, it also needs to balance cost reduction and maintaining bank spreads. If the current fundamental environment does not change significantly, the current monetary easing tone may continue [3][54] - Historically, interest rate cuts have often occurred in Q3, and if there is an interest rate cut this year, it is likely to be after the Politburo meeting in July. Even if there is no interest rate cut, there may still be room for further easing in the funding market, and it is likely that DR001 will fall below 1.3%. The overall outlook for the July liquidity environment is still optimistic [3]

研究所： | 证券分析师： | | 靳毅 S0350517100001 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | jiny01@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 马闻倬 S0350124070011 | | | | mawz@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 资金还能更宽松吗？ 固定收益点评 最近一年走势 相关报告 | 《固定收益点评：债市还有哪些隐忧？*靳毅》— | | --- | | —2025-06-08 | | 《固定收益点评：存单利率还会上行吗？*靳毅》 | | ——2025-05-26 | | 《固定收益点评：出口，会扰动债市吗？*靳毅》 | | ——2025-05-12 | | 《固定收益点评：震荡行情中，何处破局？*靳毅》 | | ——2025-05-05 | 2025 年 06 月 15 日 固定收益点评 《固定收益点评：5 月资金面怎么看？*靳毅》—— 2025-04-27 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 从基本面维度看，地产表现、信贷需求仍然存在一定下行压力，资 金面没有收紧的基础。地产方面，30 大中城市商 ...

Group 1: Liquidity Trends - In April, the excess reserve ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, remaining below historical levels[6] - The central bank's additional reduction in claims on other deposit-taking institutions in March and April led to a total decrease of nearly 1.5 trillion yuan, contributing to the low excess reserves[6] - In May, the government deposit is expected to rise by approximately 130 billion yuan, which will reduce the consumption of excess reserves compared to previous years[24] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Following the rate cuts in May, the DR007 rate converged towards the policy rate, with the spread narrowing to within 20 basis points, returning to levels seen in Q4 of the previous year[39] - The average net lending from banks in May increased to 3.67 trillion yuan, up from 3.28 trillion yuan in April, indicating improved liquidity conditions[39] - The central bank is expected to maintain a relatively loose liquidity environment in June, with the excess reserve ratio projected to rise to about 1.4%[24] Group 3: Fiscal Deficits and Government Bonds - The broad fiscal deficit in April reached 336.7 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 190 billion yuan, driven by high government fund expenditures[13] - In May, the net financing scale of government bonds increased by approximately 6.74 trillion yuan, reflecting significant government bond issuance pressures compared to previous years[26] - The government’s fiscal spending is anticipated to continue to support economic growth, with expected expenditures in May rising by 5.4% year-on-year to about 1.99 trillion yuan[31]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that identifying the performance turning point is crucial for the market to move out of the bottom-seeking phase, with market bottoms typically leading performance turning points by 1-2 quarters [2] - The report highlights the importance of combining leading indicators with coincident indicators for better economic bottom assessments, as relying solely on coincident indicators may lead to delayed confirmations [2] - The key to breaking out of the bottom-seeking phase lies in the sustainability of M1 recovery, with household medium and long-term loans being a more critical indicator [2] Economic Indicators - The April manufacturing PMI significantly dropped to 49%, indicating a contraction for the first time since February, down from 50.5% [4] - M1 showed a slight year-on-year decline, while M2 increased, and the total social financing stock rose year-on-year, indicating a rebound in excess liquidity [7] - The total social financing increment in April was 1.16 trillion yuan, which is 12.243 billion yuan more than the same period last year, with a slight recovery in new government bonds but a negative year-on-year change in new RMB loans [9] Leading Indicators - The report notes that M2 leads M1, which in turn leads the stock market bottom, with M2 showing a year-on-year increase of 8% in April, up from 7% [7] - The social financing pulse increased to 26.16% in April, up from 25.41%, with new government bonds showing a slight recovery while new RMB loans turned negative [9] - The report indicates that the decline in household medium and long-term loans is closely related to the real estate sales cycle, with April showing a year-on-year decrease of 12.97% for household medium and long-term loans [12] Monetary Policy and Market Sentiment - The report discusses that the narrowing of the decline in household and corporate loans is essential for market recovery, with the April average DR007 rate marginally dropping to 1.73% [15] - The central bank's recent decision to lower the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates is aimed at stabilizing the market [15] - The report mentions that the recovery in social financing and M2, along with improved export performance, reflects a resilient Chinese economy despite the macroeconomic downturn [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The current bond yield is in a state where the upward space is relatively small and the downward probability is relatively large. Investors can be more optimistic than in the first quarter of this year [1][9] - In the near future, DR007 will steadily fall back to near the OMO rate. The "positive deviation" of DR007 from the 7D OMO rate since the first quarter of this year will return to normal, and relevant events in April accelerated this process [1][11][17] - The regulator should adopt a "soft landing" and "gradual" strategy in guiding the downward movement of the capital interest rate, which helps investors form stable expectations for monetary policy [4][21] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Wait for DR007 to Return to OMO - On April 30, the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds had decreased by 3.6bp and 10.4bp respectively compared to April 25, which was consistent with the previous judgment [1][9] - Since 2018, DR007 has mostly run smoothly around the 7D OMO rate. In extreme cases such as 2020 and 2022, there were "negative deviations", and in the first quarter of this year, there was a "positive deviation" [2][14] - Whether it is a "positive deviation" or a "negative deviation", it is only temporary. The "negative deviation" in 2020 and 2022 only lasted for a few months and then returned to normal [3][17] - As the liquidity of the banking system becomes more abundant, the lending rate of large banks will also decline. The CD rate still has room to decline, and the decline of DR007 can guide the reduction of CD and other rates [3][21]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 （一）景气向上 1 ）外需：海外主要经济体制造业 PMI 均值回到荣枯线上。 2 月，美国、欧元区、日本、印度、英国均值 50.0% ，高于 1 月 49.6% ，连续第二个月回升。 2 ）土地：周度溢价率回升。 1 月 27 日 -2 月 23 日四周，百城土地溢价率平均为 9.02% ，其中近一周增 至 18.39% 。 1 月全月为 9.52% ，去年 12 月为 3.59% 。 （二）景气向下 3 ）出行链偏弱。 2 月全月， 27 城地铁日均客运较去年农历同期 +2.7% ，较公历 +18% 。航班， 2 月全 月日均 1.378 万架次，较去年 -0.9% 。 4 ）节后工地复工：仍不及去年同期。 据百年建筑调研，截至 2 月 27 日（农历正月三十），全国 13532 个工地开复工率为 64.6% ，劳务上工率 61.7% ，农历同比分别减少 12.64 个点、 12.03 个点。 债券发行情况： 1~2 月已发行新增专项债 6036 亿（去年同期 ...