5、越来越多的专家预测,2026年原油供应增长将超过需求增长。德意志银行周 一在一份报告中表示,预计明年原油供应将至少过剩200万桶/,并且即使到2027 年,也没有明确的路径回归供应短缺。 【BU】 观点:华北地区高价沥青资源出货节奏偏缓,贸易商今日适度下调报价以促 进走货;西北地区受镇海炼化昨日火运价格下调影响,区域内主流报价重心同步 走低:华南与华东市场需求端释放不及预期,中下游企业采购态度偏谨慎,多以 消化既有库存为主,炼厂及社会库存报价均保持稳定。后市来看,山东、华北地 区终端需求表现平淡,市场成交多集中于低价货源,短期沥青价格大概率呈弱势 运行;而华南、华东市场供应端存在收缩预期,沥青价格或暂时维持平稳态势。 3、据德意志商业银行的商品分析师Carsten Fritsch指出,即便美国的制裁可 能有所缓解,欧洲某国的石油产量也不太可能出现大幅增长。因为OPEC+组织的 产量配额限制,以及现有生产设施已接近满负荷运行的状态,都制约了产量的进 一步增加。"由于欧洲某国的产量很可能已经接近其生产能力上限,因此如果 OPEC+决定在明年进一步提高产量目标,那么欧洲某国的产量很难再有显著增长 。根据国际能源 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for major companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [4]. Core Views - The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has led to increased oil prices due to attacks on Russian oil facilities, impacting supply chains and causing fuel shortages in Russia [1][8]. - Iraq's oil production and export flexibility are expected to improve, which may enhance compliance with OPEC+ production quotas in the short term [1]. - The report anticipates that oil prices will remain volatile in the short term due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+'s concentrated pricing power [1][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" recommendation for key players in the oil and gas sector, highlighting their stable performance and high dividend yields [4]. Market Overview - As of September 26, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $70.13 per barrel, up 5.17% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $65.72 per barrel, up 4.85% [9][36]. - The U.S. crude oil production increased to 13.5 million barrels per day, with refinery throughput rising to 16.48 million barrels per day [9][10]. Company Performance - The report highlights the performance of various companies, with China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation being recommended for their strong fundamentals and dividend policies [4][12]. Oil Supply and Demand - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased, with commercial crude oil stocks at 41.475 million barrels, down 61,000 barrels week-on-week [10]. - The report notes that geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ decisions will continue to influence oil supply and demand dynamics [1][8]. Natural Gas Market - The NYMEX natural gas futures price closed at $2.86 per million British thermal units, down 1.99% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia's LNG price was $11.21 per million British thermal units, down 3.25% [9][44].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to maintain production quotas unchanged after September, following a significant increase in oil production of 547,000 barrels per day agreed upon for September [1] Group 1: Oil Production and Demand - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that crude oil inventories in OECD countries may accelerate in their rise, while seasonal demand support is gradually weakening [1] - OPEC+ is currently "flexible" and may adjust production levels based on future developments [1] Group 2: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs maintains its oil price forecast, expecting Brent crude to average $64 per barrel in Q4 of this year, with a decline to $56 per barrel by 2026 [1] - The price forecast faces dual risks: potential upward pressure from sanctions on Russian and Iranian supplies, and downward risks from U.S. tariff policies, secondary sanctions threats, and weak economic data [1] Group 3: Market Reaction - Brent crude futures fell by 0.6% in early Asian trading on Monday, trading at $69.29 per barrel [1]