Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, while projecting two rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 [1][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged was passed with an 11-1 vote, with one member advocating for a 25 basis point cut [4]. - The updated dot plot indicates that among 19 Fed officials, 7 expect no rate cuts this year, while others have varying expectations for one to four cuts [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed has revised its GDP growth forecasts upward, projecting a 2.4% growth rate for 2026, up from 2.3%, and 2.3% for 2027, up from 2.0% [6]. - The unemployment rate forecast for 2026 remains at 4.4%, while the 2027 forecast is slightly adjusted to 4.3% from 4.2% [6]. - The PCE inflation rate forecast for 2026 has been raised to 2.7% from 2.4%, and for 2027 to 2.2% from 2.1% [6]. Group 3: Powell's Statements - Fed Chair Powell emphasized that no rate cuts will be considered until there is progress on inflation, noting that the current inflation cooling process has slowed significantly [7][8]. - Powell acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the Middle East situation on the U.S. economy and highlighted the potential negative effects on employment and overall economic activity [9]. - He confirmed that he would continue to serve as acting chair if his term ends before a successor is confirmed [9].

Group 1 - The current trading price of London silver is around $77.03 per ounce, with a daily opening at $76.91 and a high of $77.49, indicating a slight upward movement of 0.09% [1] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that the Federal Reserve may implement further minor interest rate cuts this year to address risks in the labor market [1] - CBO forecasts that the unemployment rate in the U.S. will decrease to 4.6% this year and further to 4.4% by 2028, while the preferred PCE inflation rate is expected to drop to 2.7% this year and 2.1% by 2028 [1] Group 2 - After a rebound from the support level of $74, there is a bullish outlook for silver, with a potential upward trend as long as it remains above this level [2] - A break below $74.00 could lead to testing the next support level between $70.20 and $70.80, while a breakthrough above $83.94 would signal a restoration of the upward trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - The CBO predicts that the Federal Reserve may implement a slight interest rate cut this year to address the downside risks in the labor market [1] Group 1: Economic Forecast - The CBO indicates that higher tariffs and the tax cuts from the Trump administration are expected to keep inflation above the Fed's 2% target [1] - Current interest rates are in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with an expectation to drop to 3.4% in the fourth quarter and remain at that level until 2028 [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation Projections - The unemployment rate is forecasted to decrease to 4.6% this year and further to 4.4% by 2028 [1] - The PCE inflation rate, favored by the Fed, is projected to decline to 2.7% this year and reach 2.1% by 2028 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing rates by 25 basis points, and anticipates two more cuts within the year due to increasing employment risks [2][3][5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months [5][6]. - The decision was widely expected by investors, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point cut predicted by futures markets prior to the announcement [5][6]. Employment and Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a shift in risk balance [5][6][11]. - The updated median GDP growth forecast for this year is 1.6%, slightly higher than previous estimates, while the unemployment rate is projected to reach 4.5% by year-end [14][16]. Inflation and Economic Risks - Inflation remains a concern, with the PCE inflation rate expected to rise to 2.7% year-on-year in August, and core PCE inflation at 2.9% [16][17]. - The Fed acknowledges a dual risk scenario where employment risks are increasing while inflation has not been fully controlled, complicating policy decisions [18][19]. Market Reactions and Predictions - Market analysts predict that the S&P 500 index could rise by 0.5%-1% following the rate cut, although there may be a 3-5% pullback before the end of the month [20]. - Historical data suggests that both stocks and bonds typically perform positively around the time of the first rate cut, with stocks showing a median increase of about 5% in the 50 days following a cut [20].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Logan indicated that the June CPI data suggests an increase in the PCE inflation rate, which is targeted at 2% by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The June CPI data reflects a trend that may lead to a rise in the PCE inflation rate [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Logan indicated that the June CPI data suggests an increase in the PCE inflation rate [1] Group 1 - The June CPI data is a key indicator for predicting future inflation trends [1]

Core Viewpoint - Economists expect the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), to peak at 3.2% by the end of 2025, which is higher than the 2.7% estimate from the March survey [1] Summary by Category - Inflation Expectations - The PCE is projected to reach a peak of 3.2% by the end of 2025 [1] - The core PCE inflation rate, excluding food and energy, is expected to reach 3.3% [1]