美联储FOMC声明删除了有关就业下行风险已上升的表述。 来源：金融界AI电报 ...

在12月10日举行的货币政策会议上，美联储公开市场委员会以9票赞成、3票反对的结果通过再度降息25 个基点的决定。其12名成员中，两人认为应保持基准利率不变，一人认为降息幅度应扩大至50个基点。 会议纪要显示，大多数与会官员认为，如果未来通胀如预期回落，进一步降息是合适的。但一些官员认 为，此次降息后，应在一段时间内维持利率不变，以让决策者评估最近货币政策对就业市场和经济活动 的延迟影响，并有更多时间建立对通胀向2%目标回落的信心。 新华社纽约12月30日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会12月30日公布的12月货币政策会议纪要显 示，美联储官员对此次会议降息决定并未达成一致，对未来货币政策预期也存在明显分歧。 多名与会官员认为，美联储为应对就业下行风险而放松货币政策的立场是正确的。也有不少官员指出， 通胀走高风险正变得根深蒂固，在此情况下进一步降息，将被误认为决策者对实现2%通胀目标的承诺 在降低。 根据会议纪要，所有与会官员均同意，目前没有预设的货币政策路径，未来政策应根据最新数据、经济 前景和整体风险状况进行调整。（完） 会议纪要还显示，与会官员的总体判断是，受美国政府加征关税影响，通胀上行风险依然较高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The majority of participants believe that if inflation gradually decreases as expected, it may be appropriate to further cut interest rates, with most supporting a rate cut in December [1][4][5] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Most participants support a rate cut in December, although a few indicated they might have supported holding rates steady after careful consideration [4][7] - Some decision-makers suggest that a pause in rate cuts for some time could allow for assessment of the recent neutral policy stance's impact on the labor market and economic activity [4][6] - The minutes reveal significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the decision to cut rates, with the largest dissent seen in 37 years [5][9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Participants noted that inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains at a high level, while economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace [6][9] - There is an observed slowdown in job growth, with the unemployment rate slightly increasing as of September, leading to increased downside risks in employment [6][9] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Risks - Most participants believe that cutting rates could help prevent deterioration in the labor market, while some express concerns about entrenched inflation risks [8][9] - There is a notable division among decision-makers regarding which poses a greater threat to the economy: inflation or unemployment, with many believing that a shift to a more neutral policy stance could help prevent severe labor market deterioration [9] Group 4: Reserve Management - The minutes confirm that reserve balances have fallen to adequate levels, prompting the Federal Reserve to begin purchasing short-term government bonds to manage reserves [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that there is significant disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding the recent interest rate cut and the future monetary policy outlook [1][2] - The Federal Open Market Committee voted to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, with two members advocating for no change and one member suggesting a larger cut of 50 basis points, marking the first instance of such dissent since September 2019 [1] - Most officials believe that if inflation decreases as expected, further reductions in the federal funds rate may be appropriate, but some suggest maintaining rates for a period to assess the delayed impact of monetary policy on the labor market and economic activity [1][2] Group 2 - Officials assess that inflation risks remain high while employment risks are also elevated, particularly increasing from mid-2025 [2] - Many officials believe that the likelihood of tariffs causing sustained inflation pressure has decreased, making it appropriate for the Fed to ease monetary policy in response to employment risks [2] - All officials agree that there is no preset monetary policy path, and decisions will incorporate the latest data, economic outlook, and overall risk conditions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate a consensus among committee members that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with recent indicators aligning with this trend [1] Economic Activity - Committee members unanimously agree that current indicators show moderate economic expansion [1] - Recent data suggests a slowdown in employment growth, with the unemployment rate slightly increasing as of September [1] Inflation and Employment - Inflation rates have risen since the beginning of the year and remain at elevated levels [1] - The committee is closely monitoring risks related to its dual mandate, noting an increase in downside risks to employment in recent months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reveal internal divisions regarding interest rate cuts, with most officials supporting further cuts if inflation trends downward as expected, while some advocate for a pause in rate cuts for a period of time [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Most participants at the meeting believe that if inflation gradually decreases as anticipated, further rate cuts may be appropriate [1][2]. - A minority of participants expressed that a pause in rate cuts might be necessary to assess the impact of recent policy changes on the labor market and economic activity [1][3]. - The minutes indicate that there was significant internal disagreement, with seven officials opposing the decision to cut rates, marking the largest division in 37 years [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The minutes highlight that inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains at a high level, while economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace [2]. - Employment growth has slowed, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased as of September, with rising downside risks to employment noted by participants [2][3]. - Some officials expressed concerns about the potential for inflation to become entrenched, emphasizing the need for confidence in returning inflation to the 2% target [2][4]. Group 3: Risk Management - Most participants believe that lowering rates could help prevent deterioration in the labor market, while acknowledging high inflation risks [4][5]. - The minutes reflect a consensus that stable long-term inflation expectations are crucial for achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate [4][5]. - The decision to initiate the Reserve Management Program (RMP) was based on the assessment that reserve balances had fallen to adequate levels, prompting the purchase of short-term government securities [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve continues its interest rate cut by 25 basis points and plans to end its balance sheet reduction (QT) in December [1][2] - The target range for the federal funds rate is lowered from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first consecutive rate cuts in a year [1][2] - Market expectations have fully absorbed the likelihood of three rate cuts this year, with a 99.9% probability for the recent cut and a 91% probability for another cut in December [2] Group 2 - The decision to end the balance sheet reduction means that the Fed's QT actions will conclude after three and a half years, with short-term Treasury securities replacing maturing MBS holdings starting in December [2][3] - The Fed will reinvest principal payments from maturing securities into short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, with specific limits on the amounts for different securities [3] Group 3 - Fed Chair Powell indicated that there is significant disagreement among committee members regarding the potential for another rate cut in December, emphasizing that future policy is not predetermined [5][6] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with GDP growth at 1.6% for the first half of the year, lower than the previous year's 2.4% [6] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with employment growth slowing and increased risks to job stability noted [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a downward adjustment in interest rate expectations due to weaker-than-expected employment data and rising risks in the labor market [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25% following the September 17 meeting [1] - Nearly all voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee supported the 25 basis point rate cut, with only one member opposing and favoring a 50 basis point cut [1] Economic Indicators - The minutes highlighted a slowdown in actual GDP growth during the first half of the year and a weakening labor market [1] - Consumer price inflation has continued to rise slightly, remaining above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [1] Inflation and Tariff Impact - There is a divergence of opinions among officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing inflation would be close to the target without this year's tariff increases, while others argue that progress towards the 2% target has stalled even when excluding tariff effects [1] Future Rate Expectations - A significant majority of Fed officials anticipate at least two more rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points, with about half expecting three cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing rates by 25 basis points, and anticipates two more cuts within the year due to increasing employment risks [2][3][5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months [5][6]. - The decision was widely expected by investors, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point cut predicted by futures markets prior to the announcement [5][6]. Employment and Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a shift in risk balance [5][6][11]. - The updated median GDP growth forecast for this year is 1.6%, slightly higher than previous estimates, while the unemployment rate is projected to reach 4.5% by year-end [14][16]. Inflation and Economic Risks - Inflation remains a concern, with the PCE inflation rate expected to rise to 2.7% year-on-year in August, and core PCE inflation at 2.9% [16][17]. - The Fed acknowledges a dual risk scenario where employment risks are increasing while inflation has not been fully controlled, complicating policy decisions [18][19]. Market Reactions and Predictions - Market analysts predict that the S&P 500 index could rise by 0.5%-1% following the rate cut, although there may be a 3-5% pullback before the end of the month [20]. - Historical data suggests that both stocks and bonds typically perform positively around the time of the first rate cut, with stocks showing a median increase of about 5% in the 50 days following a cut [20].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, with 11 out of 12 voting members supporting this decision [1] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that the rate cut was a "risk management" move, balancing "sticky inflation" and "employment downside risks," asserting that political pressure does not influence decisions [1] - The updated dot plot indicates that most officials expect an additional 50 basis points cut in 2025 and a further 25 basis points in 2026, suggesting a long-term easing direction that supports precious metals [1] Group 2 - Following the rate cut, gold and silver prices initially surged but later retreated due to Powell's cautious remarks, with gold dropping to $3689.4 per ounce and silver to $41.79 per ounce [2] - The short-term pullback is attributed to the market having partially priced in the rate cut expectations and profit-taking by bulls, but the long-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains intact [2] - Key technical support levels to watch are $3550 per ounce for gold and $40 per ounce for silver; as long as prices remain above these levels, the short-term upward trend is expected to continue [2]