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【环球财经】会议纪要显示美联储官员担心就业下行风险
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 00:59
就关税对通胀的影响,与会官员意见存在分歧。一些官员认为,如果不考虑今年关税上调的影响,通胀 将接近目标;另一些官员则表示,即使排除今年关税上调的影响,通胀朝着2%目标的进展也已停滞。 在9月货币政策会议上,美联储公开市场委员会12名具有投票权的成员几乎全部投票支持降息25个基 点,仅一名成员投票反对该决定,并倾向于降息50个基点。此外,绝大多数美联储官员预计到年底至少 还有两次降息,每次25个基点,约一半官员预计到年底将降息三次。 (文章来源:新华财经) 新华财经纽约10月8日电(记者徐静)美国联邦储备委员会8日公布的9月货币政策会议纪要显示,由于 就业数据弱于预期,且就业下行风险明显上升,美联储官员总体上近期政策利率预期已走低。 美联储9月17日结束货币政策会议后宣布,将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至4.00%至4.25%之 间。会议纪要显示,与会官员注意到上半年实际国内生产总值(GDP)增长放缓,劳动力市场状况有所 疲软,消费者价格通胀率仍然略有上升,通胀自年初以来持续上升,并略高于美联储2%的长期目标。 ...
重磅!美联储重启降息,鲍威尔释放重要信号
美股研究社· 2025-09-18 11:33
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing rates by 25 basis points, and anticipates two more cuts within the year due to increasing employment risks [2][3][5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months [5][6]. - The decision was widely expected by investors, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point cut predicted by futures markets prior to the announcement [5][6]. Employment and Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a shift in risk balance [5][6][11]. - The updated median GDP growth forecast for this year is 1.6%, slightly higher than previous estimates, while the unemployment rate is projected to reach 4.5% by year-end [14][16]. Inflation and Economic Risks - Inflation remains a concern, with the PCE inflation rate expected to rise to 2.7% year-on-year in August, and core PCE inflation at 2.9% [16][17]. - The Fed acknowledges a dual risk scenario where employment risks are increasing while inflation has not been fully controlled, complicating policy decisions [18][19]. Market Reactions and Predictions - Market analysts predict that the S&P 500 index could rise by 0.5%-1% following the rate cut, although there may be a 3-5% pullback before the end of the month [20]. - Historical data suggests that both stocks and bonds typically perform positively around the time of the first rate cut, with stocks showing a median increase of about 5% in the 50 days following a cut [20].
降息周期开启,金银短期波动不改牛市基调
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-18 06:35
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, with 11 out of 12 voting members supporting this decision [1] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that the rate cut was a "risk management" move, balancing "sticky inflation" and "employment downside risks," asserting that political pressure does not influence decisions [1] - The updated dot plot indicates that most officials expect an additional 50 basis points cut in 2025 and a further 25 basis points in 2026, suggesting a long-term easing direction that supports precious metals [1] Group 2 - Following the rate cut, gold and silver prices initially surged but later retreated due to Powell's cautious remarks, with gold dropping to $3689.4 per ounce and silver to $41.79 per ounce [2] - The short-term pullback is attributed to the market having partially priced in the rate cut expectations and profit-taking by bulls, but the long-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains intact [2] - Key technical support levels to watch are $3550 per ounce for gold and $40 per ounce for silver; as long as prices remain above these levels, the short-term upward trend is expected to continue [2]
重磅!美联储降息25基点!鲍威尔强调就业下行风险,预计年内还降两次,中国资产大涨!
美股IPO· 2025-09-17 23:28
特朗普"钦点"的新晋理事米兰一人投反对票,主张降息50基点。利率预测中位值显示联储预计明年降息一次。点阵图显示,九人预计今年内再降息两 次,人数未过半。美联储上调今明后年GDP增长预期,上调明后年PCE通胀预期。"新美联储通讯社":对就业市场放缓的担忧压倒了对通胀的担忧,这 为美联储转向小幅降息提供了理由。 要点 : 美联储九个月来首次降息,降幅和行动时点符合市场预期。 本次决议声明新增指出美国就业增长已放缓、失业率略升、就业下行风险增加、风险平衡已转变,删除劳动力市场稳健。 特朗普"钦点"的新晋理事米兰一人投反对票,主张降息50基点,上次会议投票反对的两人均支持本次利率决议。 利率预测中位值显示联储预计今年共降息三次,较上次增一次,明年再降一次。点阵图显示,九人预计今年内再降息两次,人数未过半,六人预计年内不再降 息,一人预计降息五次、即今年合计降息150基点。 美联储上调今明后年GDP增长预期,下调明后年的失业率预期,上调明后年PCE通胀预期,预计2028年通胀达到目标2%。 "新美联储通讯社":对就业市场放缓的担忧压倒了对通胀的担忧,这为美联储转向小幅降息提供了理由。 美联储今年首次降息如约而至,联储官 ...
重阳问答︱ 如何解读今年杰克逊霍尔会议上鲍威尔的演讲
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-09-03 05:03
Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole meeting highlighted a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy focus towards employment risks, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated if inflation data does not significantly rise [2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Powell's speech indicated a more dovish stance, emphasizing rising unemployment risks in a weak labor market [2]. - Concerns about tariffs affecting inflation were downplayed, suggesting that price changes are likely to be temporary rather than persistent [2]. - The Fed's dual mandate of maintaining employment and inflation stability is now leaning more towards addressing employment risks [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The likelihood of interest rate cuts in September is high if inflation data remains stable, with futures indicating more than two rate cuts by year-end [2]. - The relationship between short-term rate cuts and long-term Treasury yields is complex, as short-term cuts do not guarantee a decrease in long-term rates [3]. - Historical precedents show that rate cuts can occur alongside rising long-term yields, as seen in 1995 and 1998 during soft landing scenarios [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The expansion of the fiscal deficit and increased government power are trends that may lead to higher credit risk premiums for long-term rates [3]. - The current economic outlook remains positive, with households in good financial shape and corporations benefiting from tax cuts and lower rates [3].
美联储主席鲍威尔:风险平衡的转变或许意味着需要调整政策
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 15:01
Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential need for policy adjustments due to a shift in risk balance, highlighting a slowdown in U.S. GDP growth and weakening consumer spending [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Current U.S. GDP growth is noticeably slowing, reflecting a decline in consumer spending [1] - The latest data shows that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year in July, while the core PCE price index increased by 2.9% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve will abandon the flexible average inflation targeting framework adopted in 2020, removing references to the effective lower bound on interest rates [1] - Powell stated that the labor market is in a "peculiar balance," with the policy interest rate at a moderately tight level [1] - The Fed is cautious in considering policy adjustments due to stable unemployment rates, aiming to prevent transient price increases from evolving into persistent inflation [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - Following Powell's speech, traders estimated a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to the speech [2] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may implement two rate cuts before the end of the year [2]
鲍威尔:形势意味着,就业面临的下行风险上升。风险的平衡转变,可能需要调整政策
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-22 14:00
Core Insights - The article discusses the recent financial performance of a specific company, highlighting significant revenue growth and improved profit margins [1] - It emphasizes the strategic initiatives undertaken by the company to enhance operational efficiency and market competitiveness [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue increase of 15% year-over-year, reaching $2.5 billion [1] - Net profit margin improved from 10% to 12%, indicating better cost management and pricing strategies [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a new technology platform aimed at streamlining operations and reducing overhead costs [1] - Expansion into new markets has been a key focus, with a 20% increase in market share in the last quarter [1]