在12月10日举行的货币政策会议上，美联储公开市场委员会以9票赞成、3票反对的结果通过再度降息25 个基点的决定。其12名成员中，两人认为应保持基准利率不变，一人认为降息幅度应扩大至50个基点。 会议纪要显示，大多数与会官员认为，如果未来通胀如预期回落，进一步降息是合适的。但一些官员认 为，此次降息后，应在一段时间内维持利率不变，以让决策者评估最近货币政策对就业市场和经济活动 的延迟影响，并有更多时间建立对通胀向2%目标回落的信心。 新华社纽约12月30日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会12月30日公布的12月货币政策会议纪要显 示，美联储官员对此次会议降息决定并未达成一致，对未来货币政策预期也存在明显分歧。 多名与会官员认为，美联储为应对就业下行风险而放松货币政策的立场是正确的。也有不少官员指出， 通胀走高风险正变得根深蒂固，在此情况下进一步降息，将被误认为决策者对实现2%通胀目标的承诺 在降低。 根据会议纪要，所有与会官员均同意，目前没有预设的货币政策路径，未来政策应根据最新数据、经济 前景和整体风险状况进行调整。（完） 会议纪要还显示，与会官员的总体判断是，受美国政府加征关税影响，通胀上行风险依然较高 ...

大多数与会者认为，若通胀如预期逐步下降，可能适合进一步降息；大多数与会者支持12月降息，其中少数认为此决策经过慎重权衡、他们本可能支持 按兵不动，支持降息者普遍提及近几个月就业下行风险增加；大多数与会者认为降息有助于防止劳动力恶化，一些人指出存在通胀升高根深蒂固的风险。 与会者一致认为准备金余额已降至充足水平，将根据需要买短期国债进行准备金管理（RMP）。 会议纪要显示，在克服内部巨大分歧于三周前决定继续降息的同时，大多数官员预计，若通胀下行趋势符合他们预期，未来适合进一步降息。不过，部 分决策者认为，降息行动应该暂停"一段时间"，体现出，美联储对明年初降息态度谨慎。 " 大多数（Most） 与会者 认为 ， 若通胀如预期那样逐步下降 ，则 可能适合进一步 " 降息 。 关于 进一步 降息的幅度和时机 ，" 部分 " （some） 与会者 表示 ，根据他们对经济前景的预测，在本次会议降息后，" 可能需要一段时间（for some time）保持 （联邦基金利率）目标区间不变 "。 "少数（a few）与会者指出，这种做法可以让决策者评估，（FOMC）委员会近期所采取的更趋中性政策立场对劳动力市场和经济活动有何 ...

新华财经纽约12月30日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会30日公布的12月货币政策会议纪要显示， 美联储官员不仅对此次货币政策会议降息决定不能达成一致，他们对货币政策前景同样存在明显分歧。 美联储公开市场委员会在10日投票决定再度降息25个基点，但其12名成员中有两名成员认为应保持基准 利率不变，一名成员认为降息幅度应扩大至50个基点。这是2019年9月议息会议以来美联储内部首次出 现如此多的反对声。 会议纪要显示，大多数与会官员的判断是，如果通胀今后如预期回落，进一步下调联邦基金利率目标区 间很可能是合适的。 但对于进一步调整利率的幅度和时机，一些与会官员暗示，根据他们的经济展 望，此次降息后，在一段时间内维持利率不变很可能是合适的。几名与会官员评论说，这样将让决策者 得以评估最近货币政策对就业市场和经济活动的延迟影响，同时给决策者更多时间获得通胀向2%目标 回落的信心。 纪要显示，与会官员整体判断是通胀上行风险依然处于高位，就业下行风险处于高位并从2025年中开始 升高。很多与会官员认为，现有证据表明关税带来持续通胀压力的可能性已经降低，美联储为应对就业 下行风险放松货币政策立场是合适的。与此相对，多名 ...

(本文来自第一财经) 美联储会议纪要提到，在讨论本次会议的货币政策决定时，委员们一致认为，现有指标显示经济活动正 在以温和的速度扩张。他们还一致认为，今年就业增长有所放缓，失业率截至9月份略有上升。委员们 指出，近期指标与这些趋势相符。他们注意到，通胀率自今年年初以来有所上升，并保持在较高水平。 他们一致认为，委员会正在密切关注其双重使命两方面的风险，并且近几个月来就业方面的下行风险有 所增加。 ...

会议纪要显示，在克服内部巨大分歧于三周前决定继续降息的同时，大多数官员预计，若通胀下行趋势 符合他们预期，未来适合进一步降息。不过，部分决策者认为，降息行动应该暂停"一段时间"，体现 出，美联储对明年初降息态度谨慎。 美东时间30日周二，美联储公布12月9日至10日的货币政策会议纪要，其中写道，在讨论货币政策前景 时，与会者对美联储货币政策委员会FOMC的政策立场是否具有限制性表达了不同的看法。 "大多数（Most）与会者认为，若通胀如预期那样逐步下降，则可能适合进一步"降息。 关于进一步降息的幅度和时机，"部分"（some）与会者表示，根据他们对经济前景的预 测，在本次会议降息后，"可能需要一段时间（for some time）保持（联邦基金利率）目标 区间不变"。 "少数（a few）与会者指出，这种做法可以让决策者评估，（FOMC）委员会近期所采取的 更趋中性政策立场对劳动力市场和经济活动有何滞后影响，同时也能让决策者有时间对通胀 回升至2%更有信心。 本次会议纪要也暴露了美联储决策层对12月降息的分歧。 纪要写道，与会者指出，通胀率自今年年初以来有所上升，并保持在较高水平，现有指标显示经济活动 以温和 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve continues its interest rate cut by 25 basis points and plans to end its balance sheet reduction (QT) in December [1][2] - The target range for the federal funds rate is lowered from 4.00%-4.25% to 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first consecutive rate cuts in a year [1][2] - Market expectations have fully absorbed the likelihood of three rate cuts this year, with a 99.9% probability for the recent cut and a 91% probability for another cut in December [2] Group 2 - The decision to end the balance sheet reduction means that the Fed's QT actions will conclude after three and a half years, with short-term Treasury securities replacing maturing MBS holdings starting in December [2][3] - The Fed will reinvest principal payments from maturing securities into short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, with specific limits on the amounts for different securities [3] Group 3 - Fed Chair Powell indicated that there is significant disagreement among committee members regarding the potential for another rate cut in December, emphasizing that future policy is not predetermined [5][6] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with GDP growth at 1.6% for the first half of the year, lower than the previous year's 2.4% [6] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with employment growth slowing and increased risks to job stability noted [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes indicate a downward adjustment in interest rate expectations due to weaker-than-expected employment data and rising risks in the labor market [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25% following the September 17 meeting [1] - Nearly all voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee supported the 25 basis point rate cut, with only one member opposing and favoring a 50 basis point cut [1] Economic Indicators - The minutes highlighted a slowdown in actual GDP growth during the first half of the year and a weakening labor market [1] - Consumer price inflation has continued to rise slightly, remaining above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [1] Inflation and Tariff Impact - There is a divergence of opinions among officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with some believing inflation would be close to the target without this year's tariff increases, while others argue that progress towards the 2% target has stalled even when excluding tariff effects [1] Future Rate Expectations - A significant majority of Fed officials anticipate at least two more rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points, with about half expecting three cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of the year, reducing rates by 25 basis points, and anticipates two more cuts within the year due to increasing employment risks [2][3][5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months [5][6]. - The decision was widely expected by investors, with a 96% probability of a 25 basis point cut predicted by futures markets prior to the announcement [5][6]. Employment and Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating a shift in risk balance [5][6][11]. - The updated median GDP growth forecast for this year is 1.6%, slightly higher than previous estimates, while the unemployment rate is projected to reach 4.5% by year-end [14][16]. Inflation and Economic Risks - Inflation remains a concern, with the PCE inflation rate expected to rise to 2.7% year-on-year in August, and core PCE inflation at 2.9% [16][17]. - The Fed acknowledges a dual risk scenario where employment risks are increasing while inflation has not been fully controlled, complicating policy decisions [18][19]. Market Reactions and Predictions - Market analysts predict that the S&P 500 index could rise by 0.5%-1% following the rate cut, although there may be a 3-5% pullback before the end of the month [20]. - Historical data suggests that both stocks and bonds typically perform positively around the time of the first rate cut, with stocks showing a median increase of about 5% in the 50 days following a cut [20].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, with 11 out of 12 voting members supporting this decision [1] - Fed Chairman Powell emphasized that the rate cut was a "risk management" move, balancing "sticky inflation" and "employment downside risks," asserting that political pressure does not influence decisions [1] - The updated dot plot indicates that most officials expect an additional 50 basis points cut in 2025 and a further 25 basis points in 2026, suggesting a long-term easing direction that supports precious metals [1] Group 2 - Following the rate cut, gold and silver prices initially surged but later retreated due to Powell's cautious remarks, with gold dropping to $3689.4 per ounce and silver to $41.79 per ounce [2] - The short-term pullback is attributed to the market having partially priced in the rate cut expectations and profit-taking by bulls, but the long-term bullish outlook for precious metals remains intact [2] - Key technical support levels to watch are $3550 per ounce for gold and $40 per ounce for silver; as long as prices remain above these levels, the short-term upward trend is expected to continue [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut in nine months, aligning with market expectations, and is projected to lower rates further in the coming months [3][6]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% was anticipated by investors, with a 96% probability indicated in futures markets prior to the announcement [6][12]. - The median forecast from Federal Reserve officials now suggests a total of three rate cuts for this year, an increase from the previous estimate of two [5][20]. - The dot plot indicates that while nine officials expect two more cuts this year, this does not constitute a majority, as six officials predict no further cuts [21][20]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve has revised its GDP growth forecasts upward for the next three years, while also adjusting unemployment rate expectations downward for the same period [23][24]. - The PCE inflation expectations have been raised for the next two years, with a target of returning to 2% by 2028 [23][27]. Employment and Risks - The latest statement highlights a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, indicating rising risks in the labor market [4][9]. - The shift in focus from inflation concerns to employment risks provides a rationale for the Federal Reserve's decision to implement a modest rate cut [6][8]. Voting Dynamics - In the recent vote, only one member, newly appointed Stephen Miran, opposed the decision, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [12][14]. - The voting results indicate a less divided stance among Federal Reserve officials compared to previous meetings, suggesting a consensus on the current economic strategy [15][12]. Future Projections - The updated projections show a median federal funds rate of 3.6% by the end of 2025, down from previous estimates, with expectations of further cuts in the following years [17][20]. - The anticipated rate cuts are expected to total 125 basis points from September 2023 to the end of 2027, which is significantly lower than the 300 basis points previously suggested by former President Trump [17][20].