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复宏汉霖:再启航,创新+国际化步入收获期-20250427
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-27 14:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 61.59 per share, compared to the current price of HKD 37.85 [6]. Core Insights - The company is entering a harvest period for its innovation and internationalization efforts, following significant progress in its pipeline and global expansion after privatization [1]. - The company has achieved historical profitability in the first half of 2023, with a revenue of HKD 25.01 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 93.9% [6][25]. - The innovative drug segment, particularly the differentiated PD-1 drug, is expected to drive significant revenue growth in the medium term [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Commercialization and Innovation - The company has established itself as a pioneer in biosimilars, with its first product, Rituximab, approved in 2019, and is now focusing on expanding its innovative drug portfolio [14][15]. - The revenue from biosimilars reached HKD 36.3 billion in 2024, while the innovative drug segment generated HKD 13.1 billion, accounting for 22.86% of total sales [29]. 2. HLX43: Potential in PD-L1 ADC - HLX43 is the second PD-L1 ADC drug to enter clinical trials globally, showing significant potential as a future pillar in the company's pipeline [2]. - The drug is currently in clinical phase II and has demonstrated promising data, indicating a strong confidence from the company in its development [2]. 3. HLX22: Potential to Change HER2 Positive Gastric Cancer Treatment - HLX22 has shown superior clinical benefits compared to standard treatments in HER2 positive gastric cancer, with ongoing international phase III trials [3]. - The drug has received orphan drug designation in the US, highlighting its potential in the gastric cancer treatment landscape [3]. 4. Differentiated PD-1 Drug: Surulitinib - Surulitinib is positioned to address unmet clinical needs in small cell lung cancer, with expected rapid market uptake upon approval [4]. - The drug has shown optimal data in clinical trials, indicating a strong commercial potential in various indications [4]. 5. Internationalization and Market Expansion - The company has a strong track record in internationalization, with significant licensing agreements and expected revenue growth from overseas markets starting in 2025 [5]. - The company aims to leverage its first-mover advantage in biosimilars and innovative drugs to maximize market value domestically and internationally [5]. 6. Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 58.73 billion, HKD 59.70 billion, and HKD 71.25 billion, with corresponding net profits of HKD 8.27 billion, HKD 7.97 billion, and HKD 11.22 billion [6]. - The company is expected to continue its upward trajectory in profitability, driven by its innovative pipeline and effective cost management strategies [6][32].
复宏汉霖(02696):再启航,创新+国际化步入收获期
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-04-27 08:06
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 61.59 per share, maintaining the rating from previous assessments [6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that the company is entering a harvest period for its innovation and internationalization efforts, following significant progress in its pipeline and global expansion after privatization [1]. - The company has achieved historical profitability in the first half of 2023, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit, indicating strong growth potential [6][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Commercialization and Innovation - The company has established itself as a pioneer in biosimilars, with its first product, Rituximab, being the first biosimilar approved in China [14]. - The company is focusing on innovative drugs and has seen significant sales growth, with projected revenues of HKD 57.24 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.06% [25][29]. 2. HLX43: PD-L1 ADC Development - HLX43 is the second PD-L1 ADC to enter clinical trials globally, showing promising potential for treating patients who do not respond to PD-1/PD-L1 therapies [2]. - The report highlights the urgent clinical need for effective treatments in EGFR wild-type NSCLC, where current therapies primarily rely on chemotherapy [37]. 3. HLX22: HER2 Positive Gastric Cancer - HLX22 has demonstrated significant clinical benefits in treating HER2 positive gastric cancer, with ongoing international trials expected to enhance its market position [3]. - The drug has received orphan drug designation in the US, indicating its potential as a key revenue driver for the company [3]. 4. Differentiated PD-1 SruLi monoclonal antibody - The company is advancing its differentiated PD-1 monoclonal antibody, SruLi, targeting unmet clinical needs in small cell lung cancer, with expected revenue of HKD 13.13 billion in 2024 [4]. - The report notes that SruLi has shown superior efficacy in clinical trials compared to existing treatments, positioning it for rapid market uptake [4]. 5. Internationalization and Market Expansion - The company has a strong track record in internationalization, with successful licensing agreements and product approvals in various global markets [5]. - The anticipated approval of SruLi in Europe and the US is expected to drive overseas revenue growth starting in 2025 [5]. 6. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of HKD 58.73 billion, HKD 59.70 billion, and HKD 71.25 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding net profits of HKD 8.27 billion, HKD 7.97 billion, and HKD 11.22 billion [6]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in the company's financial health, with a historical achievement of breakeven in 2023 [6][25].