Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are facing a situation of weak supply and demand, with poor inventory reduction, and are under oscillatory pressure [9]. - For nickel, macro - factors include the US retail sales growth and potential EU - US trade war. Fundamentally, supply costs are rising, and some non - integrated smelters are reducing production due to profit losses. Demand from the stainless - steel and battery sectors is weak, and inventories are rising [9]. - For stainless steel, although the cost of raw materials is decreasing, steel mills are increasing production cuts due to losses. Demand is weak in the traditional off - season, and inventory reduction is not ideal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Nickel**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly decline of 0.73% and an amplitude of 2.38%. The closing price was 120,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short lightly on rallies [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: This week, stainless steel oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly increase of 0.12% and an amplitude of 1.42%. The closing price was 12,725 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price**: As of July 18, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) was 900 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 120,500 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,725 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from last week [15]. - **Basis**: As of July 18, the electrolytic nickel spot price was 121,500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,000 yuan/ton; the stainless - steel basis was 600 yuan/ton [19]. - **Price Ratio**: As of July 18, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel was 9.47, down 0.08 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to nickel was 2.2 yuan/ton, up 0.02 from last week [23]. - **Net Long Positions**: As of July 18, the net long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel decreased by 6,436 lots compared to July 14, and the net long positions of the top 20 in stainless steel increased by 5,070 lots [31]. 3.3. Industry Chain - **Supply Side** - **Nickel Ore**: As of July 11, the nickel ore inventory at major ports was 896,490 wet tons, up 2.83% from last week [34]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: In April 2025, the electrolytic nickel output was 36,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.46%. In May 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,687.576 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%, and the cumulative import from January to May was 78,738.983 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.39% [39]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the LME nickel inventory was 21,560 tons, up 1,118 tons from last week; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 25,277 tons, up 230 tons from last week [41][44]. - **Demand Side** - **Stainless Steel Production**: In June 2025, the total output of stainless crude steel was 329.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%. Among them, the output of 400 - series was 558,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.48%; the output of 300 - series was 1.744 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28%; the output of 200 - series was 989,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.35% [48]. - **Stainless Steel Trade**: In May 2025, the stainless - steel import volume was 122,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons; the export volume was 360,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,100 tons [48]. - **Regional Inventory**: As of July 18, the stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 320,410 tons, down 20,449 tons from last week; the inventory in Wuxi was 595,917 tons, up 6,112 tons from last week [52]. - **Stainless Steel Profit**: As of July 18, the stainless - steel production profit was - 8 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from last week [56]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Real Estate**: From January to June 2025, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8% [60]. - **Home Appliances**: In June 2025, the air - conditioner output was 28.3831 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.18%; the refrigerator output was 9.0474 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.78%; the washing - machine output was 9.5079 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.57%; the freezer output was 2.4139 million units, a year - on - year increase of 18.82% [60]. - **Automotive**: In June 2025, the output of new - energy vehicles was 2.794 million, a year - on - year increase of 28.7%; the sales volume was 2.904 million, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% [64]. - **Machinery**: In June 2025, the excavator output was 26,810 units, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%; the output of large and medium - sized tractors was 21,662 units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%; the output of small tractors was 10,000 units, unchanged year - on - year [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of the Indonesian government's PNBP policy increases the cost of nickel resource supply, and the Philippines plans to ban nickel ore exports from June 2025, intensifying raw material disturbances. However, the rapid release of Indonesia's nickel - iron production capacity and the significant rebound in output have led to a notable decline in nickel - iron prices, weakening the raw material cost support [2]. - Steel mills maintain normal production. Facing cost - price inversion, they cut the production of 300 - series stainless steel, but the overall supply is still at a historical high, and supply pressure persists [2]. - Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty, export demand pressure remains, and downstream buyers are cautious. Domestic inventory reduction is poor [2]. - Technically, with reduced positions and weakened short - selling, and breaking through the MA10 pressure, the market is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 45 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6,997 lots, down 464 lots; the main - contract position is 101,013 lots, down 6,160 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 112,140 tons, down 187 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main - contract basis is 300 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons per month, up 1,120 tons; total ferronickel production is 23,900 metal tons per month, up 2,200 metal tons; imports of refined nickel and alloys are 17,687.58 tons per month, down 1,058.97 tons; imports of ferronickel are 848,200 tons per month, up 31,300 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; China's ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons per month, down 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons per month, down 39,600 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 619,400 tons per week, down 5,900 tons; the stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons per month, down 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters per month, up 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, down 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, down 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, down 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% in May, the same as in April. The 12 - month PCE inflation rate rose from 2.2% in April to 2.3%. The core PCE price index rose 0.2% last month, compared with a 0.1% increase in April [2]. - From January to May in China, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and in May, they decreased by 9.1% year - on - year [2]. - The People's Bank of China's Q2 monetary policy meeting stated that it will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, and flexibly control the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are in a weak adjustment due to tight raw materials and weak demand. For nickel, it is expected to be adjusted at a low level, and for stainless steel, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see for nickel. For stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see or take a short position with a small position [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Nickel** - This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated and declined, with a weekly decline of 1.37% and an amplitude of 1.90%. The closing price of the main contract was 118,280 yuan/ton [7]. - Macroscopically, the Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged. Fundamentally, the implementation of the PNBP policy in Indonesia increased the cost of nickel resource supply, and the supply of nickel ore in the Philippines recovered, but the port inventory of domestic nickel ore decreased. The high raw material price and the downward trend of nickel price led some non - integrated smelters to cut production. The demand of new energy vehicles increased, but the proportion was small. Recently, supply and demand were both weak, domestic inventory decreased, and overseas inventory remained stable. Technically, the short - selling power weakened, and it was expected to be adjusted at a low level [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Stainless Steel** - This week, stainless steel fluctuated and declined, with a weekly decline of 0.36% and an amplitude of 1.20%. The closing price of the main contract was 12,505 yuan/ton [7]. - The implementation of the PNBP policy in Indonesia increased the cost of nickel resource supply, and the Philippines planned to implement a nickel ore export ban. The cost support of raw materials weakened. Steel mills maintained normal production, but the supply pressure still existed. Entering the traditional off - season, the downstream was cautious. The domestic inventory removal was not good. Technically, it was expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see or take a short position with a small position [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement** - This week, the futures prices of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel declined. As of June 20, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) in the whole country was 925 yuan/nickel, a decrease of 15 yuan/nickel from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 118,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,640 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton from last week [13]. - **Basis Situation** - This week, the basis of Shanghai nickel was low, and the basis of stainless steel was high. As of June 20, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 120,625 yuan/ton, and the basis was 2,345 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,450 yuan/ton, and the basis was 945 yuan/ton [17]. - **Price Ratio** - This week, the ratio of nickel to stainless steel fluctuated, and the ratio of tin to nickel increased. As of June 20, the price ratio of nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.46, a decrease of 0.1 from last week; the price ratio of tin to nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 2.2 yuan/ton, the same as last week [22]. - **Net Buying Volume of the Top 20** - This week, the net buying volume of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel increased, and that in stainless steel also increased. As of June 20, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 16,361 lots, a decrease of 7,310 lots from June 16, 2025. The net position of the top 20 in stainless steel was 653 lots, a decrease of 5,027 lots from June 16, 2025 [31]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore and Production Profit** - The port inventory of nickel ore increased, and the production profit of electrowinning nickel shrank. As of June 20, the national nickel ore inventory in major ports was 739,240 tons, an increase of 2.41% from last week. The production profit of electrowinning nickel was - 1,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,025 yuan/ton from last week [34][35]. - **Production and Import and Export of Electrolytic Nickel** - The production of domestic electrolytic nickel increased, and the import and export volume increased significantly. In April 2025, the production of electrolytic nickel was 36,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.46%. In May 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,687.576 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%; from January to May, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 78,738.983 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.39% [39]. - **Inventory in Exchanges** - The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the LME nickel inventory remained stable. As of June 20, the LME nickel inventory was 21,669 tons, a decrease of 1,473 tons from last week. The inventory of Shanghai nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 25,304 tons, a decrease of 1,651 tons from last week [41][45]. 3.3.2. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Export** - The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased steadily, and the export volume rebounded. In May 2025, the total production of stainless steel crude steel was 3.4629 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.13%. Among them, the production of 400 - series was 702,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.44%; the production of 300 - series was 1.7847 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.17%; the production of 200 - series was 976,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.58%. In May 2025, the import volume of stainless steel was 122,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons; the export volume was 360,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,100 tons [49]. - **Inventory in Key Regions** - The destocking of 300 - series stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi was not good. As of June 20, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 329,227 tons, an increase of 322 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 596,595 tons, an increase of 8,635 tons from last week [53]. - **Stainless Steel Production Profit** - As of June 20, the production profit of stainless steel was 102 yuan/ton, an increase of 68 yuan/ton from last week [57]. - **Related Industries' Demand** - The real estate industry recovered slowly, and the home appliance industry was at the end of the peak season. From January to May 2025, the new construction area of houses was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.8%; the completed area of houses was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%; the real estate development investment was 362.3384 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. In May 2025, the air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.48%; the household refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.72%; the household washing machine production was 9.412 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.49%; the freezer production was 2.01 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [59]. - The automobile industry performed well, and the machinery industry improved steadily. In May 2025, the production of new energy vehicles in China was 2.649 million units, a year - on - year increase of 27.7%; the sales volume was 2.686 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. In May 2025, the excavator production was 25,845 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%; the production of large and medium - sized tractors was 24,616 units, a year - on - year decrease of 16.64%; the production of small tractors was 11,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 8.3% [64].