1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of the Indonesian government's PNBP policy increases the cost of nickel resource supply, and the Philippines plans to ban nickel ore exports from June 2025, intensifying raw material disturbances. However, the rapid release of Indonesia's nickel - iron production capacity and the significant rebound in output have led to a notable decline in nickel - iron prices, weakening the raw material cost support [2]. - Steel mills maintain normal production. Facing cost - price inversion, they cut the production of 300 - series stainless steel, but the overall supply is still at a historical high, and supply pressure persists [2]. - Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty, export demand pressure remains, and downstream buyers are cautious. Domestic inventory reduction is poor [2]. - Technically, with reduced positions and weakened short - selling, and breaking through the MA10 pressure, the market is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 45 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6,997 lots, down 464 lots; the main - contract position is 101,013 lots, down 6,160 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 112,140 tons, down 187 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main - contract basis is 300 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons per month, up 1,120 tons; total ferronickel production is 23,900 metal tons per month, up 2,200 metal tons; imports of refined nickel and alloys are 17,687.58 tons per month, down 1,058.97 tons; imports of ferronickel are 848,200 tons per month, up 31,300 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; China's ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons per month, down 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons per month, down 39,600 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 619,400 tons per week, down 5,900 tons; the stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons per month, down 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters per month, up 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, down 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, down 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, down 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% in May, the same as in April. The 12 - month PCE inflation rate rose from 2.2% in April to 2.3%. The core PCE price index rose 0.2% last month, compared with a 0.1% increase in April [2]. - From January to May in China, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and in May, they decreased by 9.1% year - on - year [2]. - The People's Bank of China's Q2 monetary policy meeting stated that it will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, and flexibly control the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [2].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.20」 沪镍不锈钢市场周报 原料偏紧需求乏力 镍不锈钢弱势调整 研究员： 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 获取更多资讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 关 注 我 们 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 周度回顾：本周沪镍主力震荡下跌，周线涨跌幅为-1.37%，振幅1.90%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价118280元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美联储公布6月利率决议，将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第四次会议按兵不动， 符合市场预期。基本面，印尼政府PNBP政策实施，提高镍资源供应成本，内贸矿升水持稳运行；菲律宾镍矿供应 回升，不过国内镍矿港库下降，原料呈现偏紧局面。冶炼端，目前原料价格较高，而镍价处于下行趋势，对其余 冶炼厂造成利润亏损的影响，部分非一体化冶炼厂选择减产。需求端，不锈钢厂利润压缩，300系转产其他产品； 新能源汽车需求继续爬升，但占比较小影响有限。近期供需两弱，下游按需采购，国内库存下降；但海外库存持 稳。技术面，持仓减量空头减弱，预计 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand. The domestic inventory is decreasing, while the overseas inventory remains stable. Technically, there is a rebound with reduced volume and positions, and the price has stood above the MA10. It is expected to be in a state of oscillatory adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 122,710 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 510 yuan/ton. The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 1,5490 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 45 US dollars/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel is - 1,959 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 1,021 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 199,092 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,014 tons, and the LME nickel cancelled warrants are 27,264 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,014 tons. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange is 25,616 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,459 tons, and the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 21,192 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 35 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 123,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 123,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the main NI contract is 1,190 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 179.97 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1.63 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 291.41 million tons, with an increase of 137.89 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 696.86 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 29.02 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 78.86 US dollars/ton, with a decrease of 32.99 US dollars/ton. The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,700 metal tons, with a decrease of 1,100 metal tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 18,746.54 tons, with an increase of 10,187.11 tons. The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 182.43 million tons, with a decrease of 775,000 tons. The total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 611,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 520 tons, and the import volume of ferronickel is 816,900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 196,400 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - In the US, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in May were 139,000, higher than the market expectation of 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month. Some Fed officials have different views: Harker believes that the Fed may cut interest rates later this year; Musalem thinks the probability of a continuous inflation outbreak due to the trade war is 50%; Bowman proposes to change the regulatory rating of large - scale banks and consider establishing an independent regulatory framework for community banks. In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year. The wholesale volume of passenger cars in May reached 2.31 million, a record high for the month, with a year - on - year increase of 12.8% and a month - on - month increase of 5.5% [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate due to the game between real - world support and weak expectations, and stainless - steel prices will fluctuate within a range as negative feedback leads to increased production cuts [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,200, up 630 from T - 1; the trading volume was 98,620, down 3,755 from T - 1. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 12,680, down 10 from T - 1; the trading volume was 75,548, up 6,636 from T - 1 [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 122,300, up 200 from T - 1; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 951, down 6 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) was 13,050, down 50 from T - 1 [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On March 3, Ontario, Canada's Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are key in the tariff battle and may stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [1] - On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial - production stage. The project is in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% grade nickel - iron with an annual metal - nickel output of about 12,500 tons per line [2] - An overseas nickel smelter in an important metal - processing park in Indonesia has resumed production. The production of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [3][4] - The Philippine parliament is discussing a bill to ban nickel - ore exports, which is in the review stage of the two - house committee. There was market news on May 9 that the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel - ore export ban starting from June 2025, but the authenticity and start time are yet to be verified [4] - An Indonesian cold - rolling mill plans to continue maintenance from June to July, which is expected to affect 110,000 - 130,000 tons of production, mainly 300 - series output. It cut production by 40% - 50% in May due to the sluggish market [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The nickel and stainless steel markets are expected to continue their volatile trends in the near term. The core contradictions include a slight intraday decline in Shanghai nickel, short - term support in Philippine nickel mines, a slight downward shift in the Indonesian domestic trade benchmark price, stable premiums in June, stable ferronickel prices, production cuts in some stainless - steel mills in China and Indonesia, and a downward trend in nickel salts in the new energy chain affected by nickel prices. Future focus is on spot trading and fundamental drivers [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Management Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Price Forecast**: The predicted price range is 11,700 - 12,600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - **Shanghai Nickel Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and there is a risk of inventory value decline, strategies include short - selling Shanghai nickel futures (60% hedge ratio, strategy level 2), selling call options (50% hedge ratio, strategy level 2), and buying far - month Shanghai nickel contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs (strategy level 3) [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, strategies include selling put options and buying out - of - the - money call options according to the procurement plan (strategy levels 1 and 3 respectively) [2] Market Conditions and Influencing Factors - **Core Contradictions**: Intraday, Shanghai nickel had a slight correction. There was short - term support in Philippine nickel mines, a slight downward shift in the Indonesian domestic trade benchmark price, and stable premiums in June. Ferronickel prices were stable. Some stainless - steel mills in China and Indonesia announced production cuts, and the new energy chain's nickel salts declined due to nickel prices. Future focus is on spot trading and fundamental drivers [3] - **Positive Factors**: The Philippine government plans to ban nickel ore exports in June 2025, some stainless - steel mills announced production cuts, and there is support from stable costs of nickel ore and ferronickel [4] - **Negative Factors**: Stainless - steel inventories remain at a high level, stainless - steel has entered the traditional off - season, and multiple stainless - steel trading countries have launched anti - dumping investigations [4] Market Data - **Nickel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Nickel Main Contract is 122,590 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 is 122,590 yuan/ton (up 1.11%), Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 is 122,750 yuan/ton (up 1.05%), Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 is 122,900 yuan/ton (up 1.05%), and LME Nickel 3M is 15,475 US dollars/ton (down 1.04%). Trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, while the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1.18%. The basis of the main contract increased by 86.2% [5] - **Stainless - Steel Disk Daily Data**: The latest price of Stainless - Steel Main Contract is 12,720 yuan/ton (unchanged), Stainless - Steel Continuous 1 is 12,720 yuan/ton (up 0.71%), Stainless - Steel Continuous 2 is 12,735 yuan/ton (up 0.63%), Stainless - Steel Continuous 3 is 12,740 yuan/ton (up 0.63%). Trading volume and open interest remained unchanged, the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 4.09%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by 12.16% [6] - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: Domestic social nickel inventory is 41,553 tons (down 836 tons), LME nickel inventory is 201,624 tons (up 162 tons), stainless - steel social inventory is 967.5 tons (down 6.4 tons), and nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons (up 1,907.5 tons) [7]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations in inventory levels and prices, influenced by production adjustments, raw material costs, and demand uncertainties. Group 1: Inventory and Production - As of May 23, stainless steel futures inventory recorded 140,425 tons, a decrease of 17,453 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On May 22, regional market stainless steel inventory totaled 153,280 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 44.36% and a year-on-year increase of 16.27% [1] - Cold-rolled stainless steel inventory was 26,950 tons, up 3.45% week-on-week and 0.96% year-on-year; hot-rolled stainless steel inventory was 126,330 tons, up 57.66% week-on-week and 45.28% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Recent news of steel mills reducing production and rising nickel-iron prices provide some support for stainless steel prices, but slow inventory digestion and lack of demand improvement continue to exert pressure [2] - The price of stainless steel is expected to fluctuate within the range of 12,600 to 13,200 [2] Group 3: Raw Material and Supply Chain - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy has increased nickel resource supply costs, while the Philippines plans to implement a nickel ore export ban starting June 2025, intensifying raw material disruptions [3] - Indonesian nickel-iron production capacity is recovering, leading to a noticeable decline in nickel-iron prices, which reduces raw material cost support [3] - Steel mills are maintaining normal production but are reducing output of the loss-making 300 series stainless steel in favor of increasing production of the 200 and 400 series products, indicating ongoing supply pressure [3] Group 4: Demand and Market Sentiment - Terminal construction projects are gradually commencing, entering the traditional peak demand season, but macro market uncertainties are leading to cautious attitudes towards high-priced goods [3] - Recent domestic inventory has seen a slight increase, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [3]

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On May 12, 2025, the main contract 2506 of Shanghai nickel opened at 124,150 yuan/ton and closed at 126,130 yuan/ton, a 2.00% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 235,469 lots, and the open interest was 67,717 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel jumped higher in the night session on Friday, then oscillated in a range after surging to near the previous high. On Monday, it rose in the morning session, faced resistance, and then oscillated downward, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly [2]. - The news of the Philippine nickel ore export ban on Friday afternoon affected market sentiment. Although the bill will take effect five years after being signed into law, it has no substantial impact in the near term. The shortage of nickel ore supply persists. The domestic trade premium for nickel ore in May (Phase II) is expected to remain at +26 - 27, and the domestic trade base price has increased by $0.65 - 1, with the overall price rising slightly and the ore - end price remaining firm [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel rose by about 2,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands in the market were correspondingly adjusted. The nickel price rebounded significantly during the day, and downstream buyers showed strong hesitation due to high prices. The overall spot trading volume of refined nickel was average, and most spot premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 150 yuan/ton to 2,150 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 150 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 23,222 (-204.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 197,754 (84) tons [2]. Strategy - Affected by the news of the Philippine nickel ore export ban and the tariff adjustment on Monday, the nickel price rebounded significantly. However, the overall supply of nickel elements is in excess, and there is significant upward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range [3]. - Inter - period: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On May 12, 2025, the main contract 2506 of stainless steel opened at 12,765 yuan/ton and closed at 12,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 116,932 lots, and the open interest was 116,190 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated and rose in the night session on Friday and continued to rise in the day session on Monday, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [4]. - On May 12, the "Joint Statement of the China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks" was released. The US promised to cancel the 91% tariffs imposed on Chinese goods under Executive Order No. 14259 on April 8, 2025, and Executive Order No. 14266 on April 9, 2025, and modify the 34% reciprocal tariffs imposed on Chinese goods under Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. Among them, 24% of the tariffs will be suspended for 90 days, and the remaining 10% will be retained. This tariff adjustment has no impact on stainless steel and all stainless - steel products, mainly affecting some downstream products that use stainless steel [4]. - The US imposes a 45% import tariff on stainless steel products (excluding pipes, flanges, and pipe fittings) and tableware and kitchenware imported from China, a 70% import tariff on stainless - steel sinks and washbasins, machine endless belts, other woven fabrics, pipes, flanges, and pipe fittings, and a minimum 30% import tariff on other products (partially using stainless steel) before July 2025 [5]. - The shortage of nickel ore supply persists. The domestic trade premium for nickel ore in May (Phase II) is expected to remain at +26 - 27, and the domestic trade base price has increased by $0.65 - 1, with the overall price rising slightly and the ore - end price remaining firm. In the spot market, the stainless - steel market was strong, market confidence recovered, and the price was raised several times. Some traders had low inventories, and some merchants increased their replenishment efforts due to bullish expectations, resulting in active market trading. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,125 yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,125 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 350 - 500 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 2.50 yuan/nickel point to 942.5 yuan/nickel point [5]. Strategy - Affected by the Philippine nickel ore export ban and the tariff adjustment on Monday, the stainless - steel price rebounded significantly. However, the overall supply of stainless steel is in excess, and there is significant upward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term, and the mid - to - long - term strategy remains to sell hedges on rallies. - Unilateral: Neutral [6]. - Inter - period: None [6]. - Cross - variety: None [6]. - Spot - futures: None [6]. - Options: None [6].