免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12850 | 10 10-11月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -70 | 0 -5355 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -11213 | -2771 主力合约持仓量:不锈钢(日,手) | 128304 | | | | 仓单数量:不锈钢(日,吨) | 100851 | -175 | | | | 现货市场 | 304/2B卷:切边:无锡(日,元/吨) | 13700 | 0 市场价:废不锈钢304:无锡(日,元/吨) | 9600 | 0 | | | SS主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 445 | -10 | | | | 上游情况 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support for stainless steel has weakened due to the significant decline in ferronickel prices recently, despite the increased cost of nickel resources from the Indonesian government's PNBP policy and the accelerated release of Indonesian ferronickel production [2]. - On the supply side, steel mills are facing increased cost - inversion pressure and are in a loss state across the board, leading to greater production cuts. Domestic anti - involution measures may also help alleviate the oversupply situation, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - On the demand side, it is the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainties and pressure on export demand. Downstream buyers are hesitant and less willing to accept high - priced goods, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand [2]. - Domestic stainless steel inventory has entered the destocking cycle, and the decline in inventory has accelerated with continuous production cuts [2]. - Technically, the position volume has decreased, and both bulls and bears are cautious. Attention should be paid to the support level at 12,800. It is recommended to wait and see or take a small long position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,925 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 85 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 35 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 24,777 lots, a decrease of 1,719 lots. The main contract position volume is 87,475 lots, a decrease of 1,864 lots [2]. - The stainless steel warehouse receipt quantity is 102,925 tons, a decrease of 61 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 245 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly ferronickel production is 22,600 metal tons, a decrease of 1,300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton. The average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 608,000 tons, an increase of 2,300 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, an increase of 71.8071 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 26,800 units, an increase of 1,000 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,700 units, a decrease of 2,900 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6行业消息 - In the US, the non - farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs in July, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The "New Fed Wire" said that the cooling of non - farm employment opens the door for a rate cut in September, although inflation remains a concern [2]. - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value - added tax [2]. - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the release of resources, increasing the cost of nickel supply. However, the production of Indonesian ferronickel has rebounded significantly [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of the Indonesian government's PNBP policy increases the cost of nickel resource supply, and the Philippines plans to ban nickel ore exports from June 2025, intensifying raw material disturbances. However, the rapid release of Indonesia's nickel - iron production capacity and the significant rebound in output have led to a notable decline in nickel - iron prices, weakening the raw material cost support [2]. - Steel mills maintain normal production. Facing cost - price inversion, they cut the production of 300 - series stainless steel, but the overall supply is still at a historical high, and supply pressure persists [2]. - Entering the traditional consumption off - season, with increased macro - market uncertainty, export demand pressure remains, and downstream buyers are cautious. Domestic inventory reduction is poor [2]. - Technically, with reduced positions and weakened short - selling, and breaking through the MA10 pressure, the market is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 45 yuan/ton, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6,997 lots, down 464 lots; the main - contract position is 101,013 lots, down 6,160 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 112,140 tons, down 187 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the SS main - contract basis is 300 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons per month, up 1,120 tons; total ferronickel production is 23,900 metal tons per month, up 2,200 metal tons; imports of refined nickel and alloys are 17,687.58 tons per month, down 1,058.97 tons; imports of ferronickel are 848,200 tons per month, up 31,300 tons; the SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; China's ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons per month, down 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons per month, down 39,600 tons; the total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 619,400 tons per week, down 5,900 tons; the stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons per month, down 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters per month, up 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, down 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, down 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, down 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.1% in May, the same as in April. The 12 - month PCE inflation rate rose from 2.2% in April to 2.3%. The core PCE price index rose 0.2% last month, compared with a 0.1% increase in April [2]. - From January to May in China, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and in May, they decreased by 9.1% year - on - year [2]. - The People's Bank of China's Q2 monetary policy meeting stated that it will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, and flexibly control the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation [2].