【冠通期货研究报告】 【期现行情】 PP日报：低开后震荡运行 期货方面： 发布日期：2026年1月27日 PP2605合约低开后增仓震荡运行，最低价6653元/吨，最高价6728元/吨，最终收盘于6709元 /吨，在20日均线上方，涨幅0.04%。持仓量增加4800手至525931手。 【行情分析】 现货方面： 截至1月23日当周，PP下游开工率环比回升0.34个百分点至52.87%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.56个百分点至42.04%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于 去年同期。1月27日，新增中景石化二期一线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至79.5%左右，处于偏低 水平，标品拉丝生产比例下跌至27%左右。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏 低水平。成本端，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油 价格上涨。近期检修装置略有增加。下游BOPP膜价格继续反弹，但临近春节放假，下游塑编开工率 持续下降，其新增订单有限。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，PP短 期跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是PP供需格局改善有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Views - PP is expected to fluctuate within a range as its supply - demand pattern improves limitedly, downstream order cycles shorten, and downstream product profits shrink. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new plastic production capacity and falling agricultural film orders [1] Summary by Relevant Directory 行情分析 - As of the week of January 16, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On January 22, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard grade wire drawing rose to around 29% [1][7] - Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the reduction has been average recently. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [1][7] - Due to the temporary shutdown of an oil field in Kazakhstan, the postponed resumption of CPC3 SPM, and increased heating oil demand due to cold weather, crude oil prices have rebounded recently [1] - A new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of CNPC Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased recently [1] - The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, but new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited as the Spring Festival holiday approaches [1] 期现行情 Futures - The PP2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,491 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,624 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,624 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 2.43%. The open interest increased by 18,459 lots to 486,782 lots [2] Spot - Most PP spot prices in various regions rose. The wire drawing was reported at 6,200 - 6,630 yuan/ton [5] 基本面跟踪 - Supply: On January 22, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard grade wire drawing rose to around 29% [7] - Demand: As of the week of January 16, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PP downstream operating rate decreased 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [7] - Inventory: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday decreased by 10,000 tons to 540,000 tons week - on - week, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the reduction has been average recently. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [7] 原料端原油 - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $65/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $785/ton week - on - week [8]

投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期货 | | 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2601 | 6974 -0.56% | 217.926 。 1 3 1778 | | 价差 | | 昨日价差 | ◎前日价差 | | | 01合约基差 | -144 € | -170 | | | 01-05合约价差 | -21 | -13 | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | | | 华北 | 6800 - 6980 | 6860 - 7000 | | | 华东 | 6830 - 7000 | 6850 - 7000 | | | 华南 | 6800 - 7060 | 6840 - 7040 | 品 研 2025 年 9 月 1 日 中期趋势仍有压 短期震荡。 资料来源:卓创资讯,隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 国内 PP 市场继续小跌,幅度在 10-30元/吨。PP 期货延续回调对业者入市信心有压制,加之上游企业 下调厂价， ...