【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约增仓震荡运行，最低价6263元/吨，最高价6312元/吨，最终收盘于6279元/吨， 在20日均线下方，涨幅0.45%。持仓量增加4001手至523495手。 现货方面： 【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月18日 【行情分析】 截至12月12日当周，PP下游开工率环比上涨0.06个百分点至53.99%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.04个百分点至44.06%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于 去年同期。12月18日，新增裕龙石化五线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至83%左右，处于中性偏低 水平，标品拉丝生产比例上涨至28%左右。近期石化去库缓慢，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。 成本端，伊拉克部分前期故障油田恢复生产，美国仍在极力促成俄乌和谈，乌克兰就安全保障作出 一定妥协，欧美成品油裂解价差持续下跌，原油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广 西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有增加。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单继续下降，BOPP膜 价格跌后企稳，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月17日 【行情分析】 截至12月12日当周，PP下游开工率环比上涨0.06个百分点至53.99%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.04个百分点至44.06%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于 去年同期。12月17日，检修装置变动不大，PP企业开工率维持在84%左右，处于中性水平，标品拉丝 生产比例维持在24%左右。近期石化去库缓慢，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。成本端，伊拉 克部分前期故障油田恢复生产，美国仍在极力促成俄乌和谈，乌克兰就安全保障作出一定妥协，欧 美成品油裂解价差持续下跌，原油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中 旬投产，近期检修装置略有减少。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单继续下降，BOPP膜价格再次下跌， 市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。PP供需格局整体未改， 现货成交氛围清淡，预计近期PP上行空间有限。由于塑料年内仍有新增产能投产可能叠加农膜旺季 逐步退出，预计L-PP价差回落。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约增仓震荡运 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Core Viewpoint - The plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possible new plastic production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 行情分析 - On December 17, new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's HDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 86%, at a neutral level. The new production capacity of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) was put into operation in October, and that of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) in November [1][4] - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Recently, the petrochemical inventory reduction has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. The cost of crude oil has decreased. The downstream procurement willingness is insufficient, and traders are cautious about the future market, actively selling at reduced prices [1] 期现行情 Futures - The plastics 2605 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, closing at 6479 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The trading range was between 6470 - 6543 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The open interest increased by 29,984 lots to 540,127 lots [2] Spot - The PE spot market mostly declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6350 - 6570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8000 - 8680 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6770 - 7940 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - Supply: On December 17, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 86%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 700,000 tons week - on - week, 80,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below 60 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 725 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 745 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Report's Core View The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged with a weak trading atmosphere. The upward space of plastics in the near future is expected to be limited. Due to the possible new plastic production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual end of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 16, new maintenance devices such as the second phase of HDPE of Zhonghan Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE remained at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has decreased. There is new plastic production capacity put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, and traders are cautious about the future market, so plastics' upward space is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated, closing at 6543 yuan/ton, down 0.50%. The position increased by 21355 lots to 510143 lots [2] - Spot: Most of the PE spot market declined, with a price change range of - 200 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6400 - 6620 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8050 - 8780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6770 - 7940 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 16, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 84%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE remained at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 720,000 tons week - on - week, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell to $60/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月16日 【行情分析】 截至12月12日当周，PP下游开工率环比上涨0.06个百分点至53.99%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.04个百分点至44.06%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于 去年同期。12月16日，检修装置变动不大，PP企业开工率维持在84%左右，处于中性水平，标品拉丝 生产比例下降至24%左右。近期石化去库缓慢，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。成本端，伊拉 克部分前期故障油田恢复生产，美国仍在极力促成俄乌和谈，乌克兰就安全保障作出一定妥协，欧 美成品油裂解价差持续下跌，原油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中 旬投产，近期检修装置略有减少。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单继续下降，BOPP膜价格再次下跌， 市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。PP供需格局整体未改， 宏观暂未有进一步利好，现货成交氛围清淡，预计近期PP上行空间有限。由于塑料年内仍有新增产 能投产可能叠加农膜旺季逐步退出，预计L-PP价差回落。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Guantong Futures Research Report - Polyolefin Weekly Report - Analyst: Su Miaoda - Release Time: December 15, 2025 - Reported Company: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of polyolefins remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and the upward space of polyolefins is expected to be limited in the near future [4]. - Due to the possibility of new plastic production capacity coming on - stream within the year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to continue to decline [4]. - Plastics and PP are oscillating downward [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 increased by 2.5 percentage points to around 90%, at a neutral level, due to the restart of maintenance devices such as Ningxia Baofeng HDPE Phase II [14]. - PP企业开工率 rose 3.5 percentage points to around 85%, also at a neutral level, as maintenance devices like Zhong'an United's single - line restarted [14]. 2. Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of December 12, PE下游开工率 decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing, and the overall PE downstream开工率 is at a relatively low level in recent years [20]. - As of the week of December 12, PP下游开工率 increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level over the years. However, the weaving开工率 of the drawing main downstream decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than last year [20]. 3. Plastic基差 - The decline of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price, and the basis of the 01 contract rose to 214 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [23]. 4. Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 680,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical inventory reduction has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [27].

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月12日 【行情分析】 12月12日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在90%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至12 月12日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.76个百分点至43.00%，农膜逐步退出旺季，农膜订单继续下降， 处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存再次下降，包装膜订单同样小幅下降，整体PE下游开工率仍 处于近年同期偏低位水平。近期石化去库缓慢，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。成本端，伊 拉克部分前期故障油田恢复生产，美国仍在极力促成俄乌和谈，欧美成品油裂解价差持续下跌，原 油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE在10月投产，70万吨/年的中石 油广西石化11月投产。塑料开工率略有上涨。农膜进入旺季尾声，订单持续下降，旺季成色不及预 期，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞，农膜价格跌后暂稳，预计 后续下游开工率下降。下游企业采购意愿不足，刚需为主，部分行业进入淡季，贸易商对后市谨慎， 普遍降价积极出货。塑料供需格局整体未改，交易氛围偏淡，宏观暂未有进一步利好，预计近期塑 料偏弱震荡 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On December 10, 2025, the plastic market is expected to have weak and volatile trends. The supply side has new capacity put into operation and the plastic operating rate is slightly rising. The demand side sees the PE downstream operating rate at a low - level in the same period in recent years, with the agricultural film season ending and orders decreasing. The cost - end crude oil price is falling, and the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to potential new capacity and the exit of the agricultural film season [1] Group 3: According to Related Catalogs 1.行情分析 - On December 10, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a neutral level. As of the week of December 5, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%, with agricultural film orders decreasing. The petrochemical inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price fell due to the resumption of production in some Iraqi oilfields and the decline in the refined - oil crack spread in Europe and America. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation. The agricultural film season is ending and downstream demand is expected to decline. The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and the market is expected to be weak and volatile. The L - PP spread is expected to fall [1] 2.期现行情 Futures - The 2601 plastic contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6523 yuan/ton, the highest was 6592 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6561 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, down 0.52%. The position volume decreased by 72,250 lots to 267,012 lots [2] Spot - Most PE spot prices fell, with the range from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6500 - 6770 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8170 - 8880 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6800 - 7570 yuan/ton [3] 3.基本面跟踪 - Supply side: On December 10, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a neutral level - Demand side: As of the week of December 5, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%, with agricultural film and packaging film orders decreasing. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a low level in the same period in recent years - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 6.9 million tons, 0.4 million tons higher than the same period last year, at a high level in the same period in recent years - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell to $62/barrel, while the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton [4]

截至12月5日当周，PP下游开工率环比上涨0.10个百分点至53.93%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于44.1%，塑编订单环比小幅下降，略低于去年同期。12月9 日，广州石化三线等检修装置，PP企业开工率上涨至84%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比 例上涨至27.5%左右。月初石化累库较多，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。成本端，伊拉克部 分前期故障油田恢复生产，叠加欧美成品油裂解价差持续下跌，原油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能 40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有减少。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订 单开始下降，BOPP膜价格下跌后暂稳，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让 利以刺激成交。国家发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会召开会议，研究制定价格无序竞争成 本认定标准等相关工作，给予大宗商品一定提振，但PP供需格局整体未改，宏观暂未有进一步利好， 预计近期PP偏弱震荡。由于塑料年内仍有新增产能投产可能叠加农膜旺季逐步退出，预计L-PP价差 回落。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡下行 发布日期：202 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Plastic and PP prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the near term. The L - PP spread is predicted to decline due to potential new plastic capacity and the end of the agricultural film peak season [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率下降1.5个百分点至87.5%左右，处于中性水平，因新增裕龙石化HDPE 2线等检修装置 [15]. - PP开工率上涨0.5个百分点至81.5%左右，处于中性偏低水平，因东莞巨正源一期二线、独山子石化老二线等检修装置重启开车 [15]. 3.2 Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of December 5, PE下游开工率环比下降0.54个百分点至43.76%，处于近年同期偏低位水平，农膜进入旺季尾声，农膜和包装膜订单均下降 [21]. - As of the week of December 5, PP下游开工率环比上涨0.10个百分点至53.93%，处于历年同期偏低水平，拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于44.1%，塑编订单环比小幅下降，略低于去年同期 [21]. 3.3 Plastic基差 - The basis of the 01 contract dropped to 4 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level, as the decline of the spot price was greater than that of the futures price [25]. 3.4 Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 670,000 tons week - on - week, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a relatively high level in recent years [28].