【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡运行 【行情分析】 1月30日，茂名石化HDPE等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至90%左右，目前开工率处于中 性水平。截至1月30日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.77个百分点至37.76%，农膜订单和农膜原料库 存小幅减少，处于近年同期中性水平，包装膜订单同样小幅减少，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农 历同期偏低位水平。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，寒 冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。供应上， 新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑 料开工率略有上升。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜 生产基本停滞，农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，农膜和包装膜开工率下降，预计后续下游 开工率继续下降，临近春节放假，节前备货有限，终端工厂刚需采购为主。低估值、寒冷天气及伊 朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，塑料短期跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是塑料供需格局改善 有限，现货跟进有限，基差走低，塑料反弹 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月29日 【行情分析】 1月29日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在89%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月 23日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.4个百分点至39.53%，农膜订单基本稳定，处于近年同期中性水 平，农膜原料库存基本稳定，包装膜订单小幅回升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历同期偏低位 水平。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，寒冷天气推动柴 油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。供应上，新增产能50万 吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有 下降。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞， 农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，预计后续下游开工率下降，临近春节放假，节前备货有限， 终端工厂刚需采购为主。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，塑料短期 跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是塑料供需格局改善有限，现货跟进有限，基差走低，塑料反弹可持续 性谨慎 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月28日 【行情分析】 截至1月23日当周，PP下游开工率环比回升0.34个百分点至52.87%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.56个百分点至42.04%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于 去年同期。1月28日，新增独山子石化一线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至79%左右，处于偏低水 平，标品拉丝生产比例维持在27%左右。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低 水平。成本端，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价 格上涨。近期检修装置略有增加。下游BOPP膜价格继续反弹，但临近春节放假，下游塑编开工率持 续下降，其新增订单有限。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，PP短期 跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是PP供需格局改善有限，现货跟进有限，基差走低，PP反弹可持续性谨 慎对待。由于塑料近日有新增产能投产，开工率较PP高，叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启，预计L-PP价 差回落。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约增仓震荡上行，最低价6697元/吨，最 ...

【行情分析】 1月28日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在89%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月 23日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.4个百分点至39.53%，农膜订单基本稳定，处于近年同期中性水 平，农膜原料库存基本稳定，包装膜订单小幅回升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历同期偏低位 水平。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，寒冷天气推动柴 油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。供应上，新增产能50万 吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有 下降。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞， 农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，预计后续下游开工率下降，临近春节放假，节前备货有限， 终端工厂刚需采购为主。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，塑料短期 跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是塑料供需格局改善有限，现货跟进有限，基差走低，塑料反弹可持续 性谨慎对待。由于塑料近日有新增产能投产，开工率较PP高，叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 【期现行情】 PP日报：低开后震荡运行 期货方面： 发布日期：2026年1月27日 PP2605合约低开后增仓震荡运行，最低价6653元/吨，最高价6728元/吨，最终收盘于6709元 /吨，在20日均线上方，涨幅0.04%。持仓量增加4800手至525931手。 【行情分析】 现货方面： 截至1月23日当周，PP下游开工率环比回升0.34个百分点至52.87%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.56个百分点至42.04%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于 去年同期。1月27日，新增中景石化二期一线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至79.5%左右，处于偏低 水平，标品拉丝生产比例下跌至27%左右。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏 低水平。成本端，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油 价格上涨。近期检修装置略有增加。下游BOPP膜价格继续反弹，但临近春节放假，下游塑编开工率 持续下降，其新增订单有限。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，PP短 期跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是PP供需格局改善有 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：低开后震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月27日 【行情分析】 1月27日，新增齐鲁石化HDPE 2线等检修装置，塑料开工率下跌至89%左右，目前开工率处于中性 水平。截至1月23日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.4个百分点至39.53%，农膜订单基本稳定，处于近 年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存基本稳定，包装膜订单小幅回升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农 历同期偏低位水平。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，寒 冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。供应上， 新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑 料开工率略有下降。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜 生产基本停滞，农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，预计后续下游开工率下降，临近春节放假， 节前备货有限，终端工厂刚需采购为主。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪 好转，塑料短期跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是塑料供需格局改善有限，现货跟进有限，基差走 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月23日 【行情分析】 1月23日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在90%左右，目前开工率处于中性偏高水平。截 至1月23日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.4个百分点至39.53%，农膜订单基本稳定，处于近年同期中 性水平，农膜原料库存基本稳定，包装膜订单小幅回升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历同期偏 低位水平。石化1月上中旬去库较好，但近日去库一般，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本 端，美国能源部长赖特在世界经济论坛上呼吁将全球石油产量提高1倍以上，美国原油库存累库幅度 超预期，同时汽油库存累库幅度继续超预期，整体油品库存继续增加，原油价格下跌。供应上，新 增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑料 开工率略有下降。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜生 产基本停滞，农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，预计后续下游开工率下降，临近春节放假， 节前备货有限，终端工厂刚需采购为主。化工板块情绪好转，只是塑料供需格局改善有限，上海石 化LD ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月22日 【行情分析】 1月22日，新增裕龙石化HDPE 2线等检修装置，塑料开工率下跌至90%左右，目前开工率处于中性 偏高水平。截至1月16日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.28个百分点至40.93%，农膜订单继续下降， 处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续下降，包装膜订单小幅下降，整体PE下游开工率仍处于 近年同期偏低位水平。石化1月上中旬去库较好，但近日去库一般，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性 水平。成本端，哈萨克斯坦油田暂时停产，CPC3号SPM推迟复产，加上寒冷天气带动取暖油需求，近 期原油价格反弹。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化 LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有下降。农膜订单持续下降，地膜集中需求尚未开启， 温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞，农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业 进入淡季，预计后续下游开工率下降，临近春节放假，节前备货有限，终端工厂刚需采购为主。宏 观情绪有所消退，塑料供需格局改善有限，上海石化LDPE、中化泉州HDPE等检修装置即 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PP market is expected to experience a weakening oscillatory trend within a certain range due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, shorter downstream order cycles, and shrinking downstream product profits [1] - The L - PP price spread is expected to decline as there is new production capacity for plastics and the L开工率 is higher than that of PP, along with a continuous decline in agricultural film orders [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring products, dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On January 20, new maintenance units such as the first and second lines of Juzhengyuan Phase I were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises decreased to around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring products dropped to around 26% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January, but it has been average recently. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a moderate level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - The cost of crude oil has decreased as the US has postponed military strikes against Iran and the situation in Iran has cooled down [1] - There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and the number of maintenance units has slightly decreased recently [1] - The price of BOPP film in the downstream has rebounded, but with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PP2605 contract decreased by 0.72% in a volatile manner, with a closing price of 6461 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 4253 lots to 466,241 lots [2] - Most spot prices of PP in various regions have declined, with drawstring products priced at 6240 - 6680 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on January 20, new maintenance units led to a decrease in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 80%, and the production ratio of standard drawstring products dropped to around 26% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, and the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week [4] - Petrochemical inventory in the early morning of Tuesday was flat at 560,000 tons compared to the previous day, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below 64 US dollars per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 785 US dollars per ton [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to trade in a range as its supply - demand pattern improves limitedly and downstream order cycles shorten. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow due to new plastic production capacity and a decline in agricultural film orders [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of January 16th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On January 16th, there were few changes in maintenance units, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, a moderately low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropping to around 24% [1][4]. - The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years after good destocking after the New Year's Day holiday. The cost of crude oil has declined as the situation in Iran cools down. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and there are slightly fewer maintenance units recently. Although the downstream BOPP film price rebounded, new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract decreased with reduced positions, closing at 6496 yuan/ton, down 1.67%. The trading volume was between 6489 - 6604 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 5929 lots to 485,733 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions declined. The drawstring PP was quoted at 6240 - 6680 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 16th, there were few changes in maintenance units. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 24% [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 16th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 490,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The destocking was good after the New Year's Day holiday, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. 3.4 Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's March contract fell below $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $750 per ton [6].