【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年2月3日 PP2605合约增仓震荡运行，最低价6681元/吨，最高价6771元/吨，最终收盘于6730元/吨， 在20日均线上方，跌幅0.65%。持仓量增加229手至509892手。 现货方面： PP各地区现货价格多数下跌。拉丝报6340-6880元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【行情分析】 截至1月30日当周，PP下游开工率环比回落0.79个百分点至52.08%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于42.04%，但塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年同期。 2月3日，茂名石化二线等检修装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至80%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标 品拉丝生产比例维持在29%左右。1月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成 本端，地缘局势降温，本次寒潮转弱，原油价格大幅下跌。近期检修装置略有减少。下游BOPP膜价 格继续反弹，临近春节放假，下游塑编开工率稳定，但其新增订单有限。宏观情绪降温，塑料短期 跟随市场情绪偏弱震荡，春节前PP ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡上行 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约增仓震荡上行，最低价6780元/吨，最高价6898元/吨，最终收盘于6870元/吨， 在20日均线上方，涨幅1.54%。持仓量增加13300手至556684手。 现货方面： PP各地区现货价格多数上涨。拉丝报6400-6910元/吨。 数据来源：博易大师 冠通研究 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 发布日期：2026年1月29日 【行情分析】 截至1月23日当周，PP下游开工率环比回升0.34个百分点至52.87%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.56个百分点至42.04%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于 去年同期。1月29日，检修装置变动不大，PP企业开工率维持在79%左右，处于偏低水平，标品拉丝 生产比例上涨至27.5%左右。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本 端，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。近 期检修装置略有增加。下游BOPP膜价格继续反弹，但临近春节放 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月28日 【行情分析】 截至1月23日当周，PP下游开工率环比回升0.34个百分点至52.87%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.56个百分点至42.04%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于 去年同期。1月28日，新增独山子石化一线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至79%左右，处于偏低水 平，标品拉丝生产比例维持在27%左右。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低 水平。成本端，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价 格上涨。近期检修装置略有增加。下游BOPP膜价格继续反弹，但临近春节放假，下游塑编开工率持 续下降，其新增订单有限。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，PP短期 跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是PP供需格局改善有限，现货跟进有限，基差走低，PP反弹可持续性谨 慎对待。由于塑料近日有新增产能投产，开工率较PP高，叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启，预计L-PP价 差回落。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约增仓震荡上行，最低价6697元/吨，最 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 【期现行情】 PP日报：低开后震荡运行 期货方面： 发布日期：2026年1月27日 PP2605合约低开后增仓震荡运行，最低价6653元/吨，最高价6728元/吨，最终收盘于6709元 /吨，在20日均线上方，涨幅0.04%。持仓量增加4800手至525931手。 【行情分析】 现货方面： 截至1月23日当周，PP下游开工率环比回升0.34个百分点至52.87%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.56个百分点至42.04%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于 去年同期。1月27日，新增中景石化二期一线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至79.5%左右，处于偏低 水平，标品拉丝生产比例下跌至27%左右。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏 低水平。成本端，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油 价格上涨。近期检修装置略有增加。下游BOPP膜价格继续反弹，但临近春节放假，下游塑编开工率 持续下降，其新增订单有限。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，PP短 期跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是PP供需格局改善有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to fluctuate within a range as the improvement in the supply - demand pattern is limited, downstream order cycles are shortened, and downstream product profits are shrinking. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new plastic production capacity and the non - start of concentrated demand for mulch films [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 23, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.34 percentage points to 52.87% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry of the main drawstring decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 42.04% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On January 23, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 28% [1][4] - Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the recent inventory reduction was average. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, the US Energy Secretary called for more than doubling global oil production, US crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and gasoline inventories also continued to increase more than expected. Overall oil product inventories continued to rise, and crude oil prices fell [1] - In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of recent maintenance devices decreased slightly. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, but as the Spring Festival holiday approached, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry continued to decline, and new orders were limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,584 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,687 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,656 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.48%. The position increased by 12,150 lots to 498,932 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions rose. The drawstring was reported at 6,250 - 6,730 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 23, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 80%, at a slightly lower - than - neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 28% [4] - Demand: As of the week of January 23, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.34 percentage points to 52.87% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry of the main drawstring decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 42.04% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: Petrochemical morning inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 500,000 tons week - on - week, 35,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemicals had good inventory reduction in the first and middle ten - days of January, but the recent inventory reduction was average. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $65/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $15/ton to $800/ton week - on - week [4]

PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月21日 【行情分析】 截至1月16日当周，PP下游开工率环比下降0.07个百分点至52.53%，处于历年同期偏低水平。其 中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.32个百分点至42.6%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去 年同期。1月21日，检修装置变动不大，PP企业开工率维持在80%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉 丝生产比例上涨至27.5%左右。石化1月上中旬去库较好，但近日去库一般，目前石化库存处于近年 同期中性水平。成本端，美国总统特朗普在白宫表示，收到了"来自伊朗非常积极的声明"，"我 们要先观望局势发展"，美国暂缓对伊朗的军事打击，伊朗局势有所降温，近期原油价格回落。供 应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有减少。下游BOPP膜价 格反弹，但临近春节放假，下游塑编等新增订单有限。宏观情绪有所消退，PP供需格局改善有限， 下游订单周期缩短，下游制品利润缩小，预计PP偏弱震荡。由于塑料近日有新增产能投产，开工率 较PP高，叠加农膜订单持续下降，预计L-PP价差回落。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约增仓震荡运行，最低 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PP market is expected to experience a weakening oscillatory trend within a certain range due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, shorter downstream order cycles, and shrinking downstream product profits [1] - The L - PP price spread is expected to decline as there is new production capacity for plastics and the L开工率 is higher than that of PP, along with a continuous decline in agricultural film orders [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring products, dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On January 20, new maintenance units such as the first and second lines of Juzhengyuan Phase I were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises decreased to around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring products dropped to around 26% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January, but it has been average recently. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a moderate level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - The cost of crude oil has decreased as the US has postponed military strikes against Iran and the situation in Iran has cooled down [1] - There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and the number of maintenance units has slightly decreased recently [1] - The price of BOPP film in the downstream has rebounded, but with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PP2605 contract decreased by 0.72% in a volatile manner, with a closing price of 6461 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 4253 lots to 466,241 lots [2] - Most spot prices of PP in various regions have declined, with drawstring products priced at 6240 - 6680 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on January 20, new maintenance units led to a decrease in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 80%, and the production ratio of standard drawstring products dropped to around 26% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, and the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week [4] - Petrochemical inventory in the early morning of Tuesday was flat at 560,000 tons compared to the previous day, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below 64 US dollars per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 785 US dollars per ton [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to trade in a range as its supply - demand pattern improves limitedly and downstream order cycles shorten. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow due to new plastic production capacity and a decline in agricultural film orders [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of January 16th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1]. - On January 16th, there were few changes in maintenance units, and the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, a moderately low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropping to around 24% [1][4]. - The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years after good destocking after the New Year's Day holiday. The cost of crude oil has declined as the situation in Iran cools down. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and there are slightly fewer maintenance units recently. Although the downstream BOPP film price rebounded, new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited due to the approaching Spring Festival holiday [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract decreased with reduced positions, closing at 6496 yuan/ton, down 1.67%. The trading volume was between 6489 - 6604 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 5929 lots to 485,733 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions declined. The drawstring PP was quoted at 6240 - 6680 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 16th, there were few changes in maintenance units. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 24% [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 16th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 490,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The destocking was good after the New Year's Day holiday, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. 3.4 Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's March contract fell below $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $750 per ton [6].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to have limited upward space due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern and shortened downstream order cycles, despite the warm macro - atmosphere [1] - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there is new capacity of plastics put into production recently, with a higher开工率 than PP, and the peak season of agricultural films is gradually ending [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On January 14th, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 81%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 25% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation during this New Year's Day was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of recent years [1][4] - Due to the continuous escalation of riots in Iran, Trump threatening to interfere again, no further progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations, Trump passing a sanctions bill on Russia authorizing tariffs on countries importing Russian oil, the crude oil price rebounded slightly [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into production in mid - October, and the number of recent maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there are limited new downstream orders approaching the Spring Festival holiday [1] - The manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index in December all rose to the expansion range, and the Ministry of Finance has pre - issued the quotas for trade - in and "two important" projects in 2026, creating a warm macro - atmosphere that boosts market sentiment [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures - The PP2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6545 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6607 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6590 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 0.76%. The position volume decreased by 9082 lots to 484356 lots [2] 3.2.2. Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions increased. The drawstring was reported at 6180 - 6680 yuan/ton [3] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 14th, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 81%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to around 25% [4] - Demand: As of the week of January 9th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, dropped by 0.22 percentage points to 42.92% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 560,000 tons week - on - week, the same as the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during this New Year's Day was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of recent years [4] 3.4. Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $65 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $750 per ton week - on - week [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PP market shows a trend of oscillating upward, but the improvement in the supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is expected to be limited. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to new capacity in the plastics industry and the end of the agricultural film peak season [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending January 2, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points month - on - month to 52.76%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.60 percentage points month - on - month to 43.14%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On January 6, with the addition of new maintenance units such as Lihezhixin, the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 79%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 22% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, due to the oversupply of crude oil, the US military's raid on Venezuela has caused geopolitical concerns, but the key oil facilities in the country are intact, and its output accounts for less than 1% of the global supply, so the crude oil price remains weak [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance units has increased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited support for the market [1] - In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose to the expansion range, boosting market sentiment, but the improvement in the PP supply - demand pattern is limited, and the downstream order cycle is shortened [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract increased in positions and oscillated upward, with a minimum price of 6,345 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,439 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,423 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.09%. The open interest increased by 13,147 lots to 521,569 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in different regions showed mixed trends. The drawstring PP was quoted at 6,000 - 6,430 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking Supply - On January 6, with the addition of new maintenance units such as Lihezhixin, the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to around 79%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 22% [4] Demand - As of the week ending January 2, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points month - on - month to 52.76%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.60 percentage points month - on - month to 43.14%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] Inventory - On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons month - on - month to 660,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CIF China price of propylene remained flat month - on - month at $740 per ton [6]