PP2605合约
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冠通期货PP日报:PP震荡下行-20260331
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 11:13
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The PP price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply reduction expectation of PP remains due to the un - restored navigation of the Strait of Hormuz. Although the domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, the market is affected by the Middle - East situation, and the market fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of downstream production after the festival and the development of the Middle - East situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PP increased by 1.15 percentage points to 47.51% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is slowly recovering, and the start - up rate has not reached the pre - holiday normal level. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing, increased by 0.86 percentage points to 41.14%. On March 31, the parking devices changed little, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises remained at about 73%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard drawing decreased to about 27.5%. After the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory has been reduced, and it is currently at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The Middle - East conflict still exists, the risk of crude oil supply interruption has not been eliminated, and the crude oil price remains high. The start - up rate of devices has decreased again. After the Lantern Festival, the downstream rigid demand was released intensively, and the price of downstream BOPP film increased. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, and there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter - involute. The Middle - East situation boosts the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on imports from the Middle - East, its upstream depends on liquefied petroleum gas and crude oil from the Middle - East. The PP production capacity in the Middle - East accounts for 9% of the world and about 25% of the world's polyolefin exports, affecting international prices and supply. The shortage of raw materials has led to an increase in the load reduction of olefin devices at home and abroad, and the downstream has a resistance to high prices, with light spot transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 9019 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 9393 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 9103 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 4.12%. The position decreased by 18026 lots to 319551 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The drawing was reported at 8480 - 9180 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 31, the parking devices changed little, and the start - up rate of PP enterprises remained at about 73%, at a low level, and the production ratio of standard drawing decreased to about 27.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PP increased by 1.15 percentage points to 47.51% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, the downstream has a low acceptance of high - priced raw materials, the demand is slowly recovering, and the start - up rate has not reached the pre - holiday normal level. The start - up rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing, increased by 0.86 percentage points to 41.14% [4] - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10000 tons to 850000 tons week - on - week, 30000 tons higher than the same period in the lunar calendar last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell to $107/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $10/ton to $1290/ton week - on - week [4]
PP日报:PP高开后震荡下行-20260325
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 11:17
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - PP's domestic supply - demand pattern has improved, but the market is volatile due to the changing Middle East situation. It is recommended to temporarily exit the market and observe the downstream resumption progress after the holiday and the development of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of March 20, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, the demand recovery was slow as downstream was not receptive to high - priced raw materials. The operating rate of plastic braiding, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 40.28%. On March 25, new shutdown devices such as the second line of Zhejiang Petrochemical were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to about 74%, with the drawstring production ratio rising to about 26%. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory has decreased and is currently at a neutral level in recent years. The expected easing of the Middle East situation led to a decline in crude oil prices. The domestic PP supply is tight, and downstream is resistant to high prices, with weak spot transactions. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the expectation of reduced PP supply remains [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 8,557 yuan/ton, the highest was 9,280 yuan/ton, and it closed at 8,975 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 3.93%. The position decreased by 360 lots to 339,198 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 8,450 - 8,980 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 25, new shutdown devices such as the second line of Zhejiang Petrochemical were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to about 74%, with the drawstring production ratio rising to about 26% [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 20, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, the demand recovery was slow as downstream was not receptive to high - priced raw materials. The operating rate of plastic braiding, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 40.28% [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 80,000 tons to 825,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract dropped to $100/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $30/ton to $1,230/ton week - on - week [4]
PP日报:PP低开后震荡下行-20260324
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 11:43
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - PP domestic supply - demand pattern has improved, but downstream has a high - price resistance. With the high sentiment of chemical products, if the Strait of Hormuz fails to resume navigation, refinery production cuts will increase, and the recent PP price will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption after the festival and the Middle East situation [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - As of the week of March 20, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand recovered slowly due to low acceptance of high - price raw materials. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawing materials, decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 40.28%. On March 24, new restarted devices led to a decline in the PP enterprise operating rate to about 76.5% (a relatively low level), and the production ratio of standard drawing materials dropped to about 25.5%. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory decreased and is now at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. Cost - side: Trump's statement about suspending strikes on Iranian energy facilities caused a sharp drop in oil prices, but Iran denied the negotiation, and the decline in crude oil prices narrowed. The operating rate has slightly recovered recently but is still lower than at the end of February. After the Lantern Festival, downstream rigid demand was released, and the price of BOPP film increased. The Middle East situation affects the energy - chemical industry, and although PP doesn't rely on Middle - East imports, its upstream depends on Middle - East LPG and crude oil, and the Middle - East PP production capacity accounts for 9% of the world and about 25% of global polyolefin exports [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Futures - The PP2605 contract opened lower, reduced positions, and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 9,073 yuan/ton, the highest was 9,542 yuan/ton, and the final closing price was 9,114 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 3.82%. The position decreased by 59,592 lots to 339,558 lots [2] 3.3. Spot - PP spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. The price of drawing materials was reported at 8,770 - 9,580 yuan/ton [3] 3.4. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On March 24, new restarted devices led to a decline in the PP enterprise operating rate to about 76.5% (a relatively low level), and the production ratio of standard drawing materials dropped to about 25.5%. Demand side: As of the week of March 20, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.65 percentage points to 46.36% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand recovered slowly due to low acceptance of high - price raw materials. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawing materials, decreased by 0.26 percentage points to 40.28%. Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 15,000 tons to 905,000 tons week - on - week, 55,000 tons higher than the same period in the previous lunar year, and is now at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. Raw material: The Brent crude oil 05 contract dropped to $102/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $70/ton week - on - week to $1,200/ton [4]
PP日报:震荡上行-20260306
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-03-06 10:00
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - PP is expected to show a strong and volatile trend. After the Spring Festival, the domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, and the situation in the Middle East has boosted the energy - chemical sector. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of PP downstream production after the festival [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of the week of March 6, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed production but did not reach the pre - festival level. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 26.5%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons and has been decreasing since then. Currently, it is at a neutral level in recent years. The conflict in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, which has significantly boosted PP [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward. The lowest price was 7,424 yuan/ton, the highest was 7,800 yuan/ton, and it closed at 7,797 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 4.18%. The position increased by 17,221 lots to 493,414 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions increased. The drawstring was reported at 7,320 - 7,980 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 6, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 26.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 6, the downstream PP operating rate increased by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed production but did not reach the pre - festival level [4] - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 820,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, it is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $85 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $35 per ton week - on - week to $890 per ton [4]
PP日报:震荡下行-20260226
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-26 11:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending February 20, the downstream operating rate of PP dropped 11.78 percentage points to 30% due to the Spring Festival holiday. The overall downstream operating rate of PP declined seasonally. On February 26, new maintenance units were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to fall to around 80%, and the production proportion of standard-grade drawstring to drop to about 25%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and on Thursday, the morning petrochemical inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 870,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. The cost side is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and US crude oil inventory, with oil prices remaining stable. There is a slight increase in maintenance units recently. The market quotation is generally stable with minor fluctuations. After the festival, the downstream factories have not fully restarted, and the improvement of the PP supply - demand pattern is limited. The market still anticipates the anti - involution of the chemical industry, and the resumption progress of downstream production after the festival should be monitored. Due to new production capacity in plastics and the high operating rate compared to PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic mulch not yet starting, the L - PP price spread should continue to be narrowed [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending February 20, the downstream operating rate of PP dropped 11.78 percentage points to 30%. On February 26, new maintenance units were added, the PP enterprise operating rate fell to around 80%, and the drawstring production proportion dropped to about 25%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and on Thursday, it decreased by 5,000 tons to 870,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. The cost side is affected by the US - Iran situation and US crude oil inventory, with oil prices stable. The market quotation is stable with minor changes. After the festival, the improvement of the PP supply - demand pattern is limited. The market anticipates the anti - involution of the chemical industry. Due to new plastic production capacity and high operating rate, and no concentrated demand for plastic mulch, the L - PP price spread should be narrowed [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract increased in positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6666 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6782 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6675 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.89%. The position volume increased by 27,684 lots to 507,462 lots [2]. Spot - Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6310 - 6850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On February 26, new maintenance units were added, the PP enterprise operating rate fell to around 80%, and the drawstring production proportion dropped to about 25%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and on Thursday, it decreased by 5,000 tons to 870,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell below 71 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 835 US dollars/ton [5].
PP日报:震荡运行-20260225
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-25 09:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The PP market is expected to move in a volatile manner. The supply - demand pattern improvement of PP is limited after the Spring Festival, but there is still an expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of downstream production after the festival. Also, continue to shrink the L - PP spread due to new plastic production capacity and the non - start of concentrated demand for plastic film [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of February 20th, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 11.78 percentage points to 30% due to the Spring Festival holiday. On February 25th, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, a neutral - low level, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawstring dropped to around 27%. During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and on Wednesday, it decreased by 65,000 tons to 875,000 tons, 65,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. The cost of crude oil increased during the Spring Festival due to concerns about the Iranian situation and a decrease in US crude oil and refined oil inventories. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly increased [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The PP2605 contract increased in position and moved in a volatile manner, closing at 6,720 yuan/ton with a 0.22% increase. The position increased by 7,385 lots to 479,778 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most PP spot prices in various regions increased, with drawstring prices ranging from 6,310 to 6,850 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On February 25th, there were few changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 81%, a neutral - low level, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawstring dropped to around 27% [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of February 20th, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 11.78 percentage points to 30% due to the Spring Festival holiday [4]. - **Inventory**: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, and on Wednesday, it decreased by 65,000 tons to 875,000 tons, 65,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year, at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 05 contract fell below $71 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $835 per ton [5].
PP日报:震荡上行-20260224
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-24 11:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - PP prices are expected to move up in a volatile manner. The PP supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to reverse the involution. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production progress of downstream enterprises after the Spring Festival. Due to the recent new production capacity of plastics and its higher operating rate than PP, and the centralized demand for plastic film not yet starting, continue to shrink the L - PP price spread [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of February 20th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 11.78 percentage points to 30% on a week - on - week basis. During the Spring Festival, most downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, leading to a seasonal decline in the overall downstream operating rate of PP. On February 24th, new maintenance devices such as the second line of the second phase of Zhongjing Petrochemical were added, and the operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 81%, at a relatively low - to - neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire increased to about 31%. During the Spring Festival, the early inventory of petrochemicals increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, 20,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year, and basically the same as in previous years. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, the market is worried about the situation in Iran. The data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that the U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 9.014 million barrels, and the refined oil inventory declined across the board. Overseas crude oil prices rose significantly [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The PP2605 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,720 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,693 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.51%. The position decreased by 1,731 lots to 486,837 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most spot prices of PP in various regions increased. The price of drawn wire was reported at 6,310 - 6,850 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On February 24th, new maintenance devices such as the second line of the second phase of Zhongjing Petrochemical were added, and the operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to about 81%, at a relatively low - to - neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire increased to about 31% [6] - **Demand**: As of the week of February 20th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 11.78 percentage points to 30% on a week - on - week basis. During the Spring Festival, most downstream enterprises shut down for holidays, leading to a seasonal decline in the overall downstream operating rate of PP [6] - **Inventory**: During the Spring Festival, the early inventory of petrochemicals increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons, 20,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year, and basically the same as in previous years. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [6] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $71 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $835 per ton on a week - on - week basis [6]
PP春节假期持仓报告:L-PP价差回落
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 11:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The improvement of the PP supply - demand pattern is limited, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The upstream petrochemical inventory is low, and the basis has been repaired. Due to the long Spring Festival holiday, the risk of unilateral positions is high, so it is recommended to hold no unilateral positions during the holiday. It is advisable to hold a light - position short position on the L - PP spread as plastic has new production capacity put into operation recently, its operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the centralized demand for mulch film has not started yet [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 12, there were little changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring decreased to around 28%. Petrochemical destocking in February was okay, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil rebounded due to market concerns about a potential military conflict between the US and Iran. The number of maintenance devices decreased slightly recently. The price of BOPP film in some downstream areas was stable, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving industry decreased, new orders were limited, and more terminal enterprises stopped work for the Spring Festival holiday, with downstream stocking mostly completed [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract opened higher, then decreased in positions and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6648 yuan/ton, the highest was 6730 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6648 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.73%. The position volume decreased by 7495 lots to 479342 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions were stable. The drawstring was quoted at 6340 - 6880 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 12, there were little changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 82.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring decreased to around 28% [4] - Demand: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 440,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Petrochemical destocking was okay, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil contract 04 rose above $69 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China increased by $5 per ton to $830 per ton week - on - week [4]
【冠通期货研究报告】PP日报:高开后震荡运行-20260210
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 12:13
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PP supply-demand pattern has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. With low upstream petrochemical inventory and the current basis being repaired, it is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Due to the new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and the start-up rate being higher than that of PP, coupled with the fact that the centralized demand for mulch film has not yet started, it is expected that the L-PP spread will decline [1]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main drawstring decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 10, the overhaul devices such as the first line of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase II restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 81.5%, at a neutral to low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring increased to about 29.5%. Petrochemical destocking in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. On the cost side, the US and Iran will hold a new round of negotiations, but the US warned that ships flying the US flag should stay as far away from Iranian waters as possible when sailing in the Strait of Hormuz, and the market is worried about a military conflict between the two sides, so the crude oil price rebounded. There has been a slight decrease in overhaul devices recently. The prices of downstream BOPP films in some areas are stable, the operating rate of downstream plastic weaving has decreased, and its new orders are limited. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the number of terminal shutdowns for holidays has further increased, and most downstream stocking has been completed [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract opened higher and then oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,627 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,691 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,688 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 0.44%. The trading volume decreased by 1,773 lots to 488,568 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PP in various regions have partially declined. The drawstring is reported at 6,310 - 6,850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 10, the overhaul devices such as the first line of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase II restarted, and the PP enterprise operating rate rose to about 81.5%, at a neutral to low level, and the production ratio of the standard drawstring increased to about 29.5% [4]. - Demand: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main drawstring decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4]. - Inventory: The early petrochemical inventory on Tuesday decreased by 40,000 tons to 460,000 tons week-on-week, 35,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Petrochemical destocking is acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years [4]. Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 04 rose to $69 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $825 per ton week-on-week [6].
PP日报:震荡运行-20260206
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-06 09:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main拉丝 decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 6, there was little change in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard product拉丝 decreased to around 26.5%. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly, and currently the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The geopolitical situation in Iran is volatile, the United States has reduced the tariffs imposed on India, and Indian refineries may increase the procurement of crude oil from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of the downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving decreased, and its new orders were limited. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, more terminal factories are on holiday, and the downstream stocking is mostly completed. The improvement of the PP supply-demand pattern is limited, the spot price followed up limitedly at the end of January, but there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. Currently, the basis has been repaired. It is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Since there is new production capacity put into operation for plastics recently, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch films has not started yet. It is expected that the L-PP spread will decline. The market fluctuates greatly, so pay attention to risk control [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main拉丝 decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On February 6, there was little change in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard product拉丝 decreased to around 26.5%. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly, and currently the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The geopolitical situation in Iran is volatile, the United States has reduced the tariffs imposed on India, and Indian refineries may increase the procurement of crude oil from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of the downstream BOPP film continued to rebound, the operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving decreased, and its new orders were limited. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, more terminal factories are on holiday, and the downstream stocking is mostly completed. The improvement of the PP supply-demand pattern is limited, the spot price followed up limitedly at the end of January, but there is still an expectation of anti-involution in the chemical industry, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. Currently, the basis has been repaired. It is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Since there is new production capacity put into operation for plastics recently, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch films has not started yet. It is expected that the L-PP spread will decline. The market fluctuates greatly, so pay attention to risk control [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,607 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,708 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,691 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a decline of 0.48%. The position volume decreased by 14,114 lots to 483,821 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions declined. The price of拉丝 was reported at 6,310 - 6,830 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 6, there was little change in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of the standard product拉丝 decreased to around 26.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week-on-week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of the downstream plastic weaving of the main拉丝 decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week-on-week, and the plastic weaving orders continued to decline week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Friday increased by 0.5 million tons to 42.5 million tons week-on-week, 8 million tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly, and currently the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 04 rose above $68 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $825 per ton week-on-week [5]