PVC周报： 上游开工下滑，低位反弹 能源化工团队 郭建锋 Z0022887 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 时 间 2025/9/21 证监许可[2025]75号 上游开工下滑，低位反弹 【本周回顾】 本周PVC震荡上涨。周一高开在4883（较上周收盘涨12点或0.24%），小幅跌至日内低点4863 后强势上涨，周三早盘创月内新高4994后小幅回落，最终收在4950（较上周收盘跌11点或 0.22%）。全周在4863至4994间运行，振幅131点。 【下周展望】 基本面存改善预期，价格有望延续低位反弹。一方面，近期电石价格表现坚挺，成本支撑好 转，根据检修计划，10月新增检修计划增多，供给压力有望缓解。另一方面。尽管出口受政 策扰动，但是增速依旧强进劲，8月出口量为28.4万吨，1-8月出口累计同比增速达55%。目前 产业链 库存结构表现分化，国庆假期临近，上游企业加大预售量，厂内库存压力处于同期中 性水平，现货价格表现坚挺。随着基差走强，产业无风险套利空间 消 失，仓单高位去化，产 业套保压力减少。 【策略】 1）单边：绝对价格低估值，回调试多。V2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the PVC industry are bearish, with the supply expected to increase in the medium - long term while domestic demand is weak due to the poor performance of the real - estate market and insufficient domestic product orders. The anti - dumping policy from India also adds pressure. However, the price is at a historically low level, which limits the downside space. The short - term operating range of V2601 is expected to be around 4800 - 4940 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 4888 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 751,072 lots, down 16,722 lots; the open interest is 1,206,310 lots, up 6,574 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 125,894 lots, down 12,175 lots [3]. 3.2现货市场 - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 5000 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4699.23 yuan/ton, down 22.69 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4895 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 4791.25 yuan/ton, down 10.62 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China is 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2573.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it is 2373 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The VCM CFR Far East middle - price is 503 US dollars/ton, down 18 US dollars/ton; the EDC CFR Far East middle - price is 189 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 76.02%, down 1.59 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC is 77.25%, up 0.44 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 72.95%, down 6.64 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC is 52.19 tons, up 1.39 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area is 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment is 2810.593 billion yuan, up 363.043 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 8.85%, down 1.36 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.07%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options is 14.98%, up 0.45 and 0.44 percentage points respectively [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On September 2, the spot price of East China PVCSG5 decreased by 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 4650 to 4740 yuan/ton. From August 23rd to 29th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. As of August 28th, the PVC social inventory was 896,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.10% [3]. 3.8 Outlook - In the short term, the restart of some devices such as Zhongtai and Formosa Plastics Ningbo is expected to increase production and capacity utilization. In September, a total of 900,000 - ton devices of Bohua, Gansu Yaowang, and Qingdao Gulf are planned to be put into production, increasing the long - term supply pressure. Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak real - estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. India's anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented in September [3].

PVC Market Overview - The domestic PVC powder market prices have declined, with mainstream market prices dropping by 10-40 yuan/ton. The futures market has also seen a downward trend, leading to a slight strengthening of the basis as traders adjust their prices accordingly [1] - Downstream purchasing activity has shown a slight improvement, with localized enhancements in spot transactions. Current prices for 5-type calcium carbide PVC are reported as follows: East China at 4770-4880 yuan/ton, South China at 4820-4890 yuan/ton, Hebei at 4650-4780 yuan/ton, and Shandong at 4750-4830 yuan/ton [1] PVC Production and Inventory - The overall operating load rate for PVC powder this week is 78.84%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points compared to the previous week. The calcium carbide method's operating load rate is 79.21%, up by 1.38 percentage points, while the ethylene method's load rate is 77.92%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points [2] - As of August 14, the inventory of PVC production enterprises has decreased, with the number of days of inventory available for production at 5.4 days, down by 3.57% from the previous period. This reduction is attributed to sustained high pre-sale orders being shipped [2] PVC Market Outlook - The supply side is facing pressure from new capacity being released, with domestic trade remaining weak and spot transactions showing a lack of strength. Inventory pressure is expected to continue to rise, with no significant improvement in demand anticipated [3] - New capacities are expected to be released in August from companies such as Wanhua in Fujian and Tianjin Bohua, with Gansu Yaowang planning to start production in August and Qingdao Bay planning to start in September. This influx of new capacity adds further pressure to the PVC supply side [3] - Downstream production enterprises are operating at low rates, and purchasing enthusiasm remains weak, indicating that the industry is still in a seasonal downturn. Overall, the supply-demand pressure remains significant, suggesting a bearish outlook [3]