PVC周报： 上游开工下滑，低位反弹 能源化工团队 郭建锋 Z0022887 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 时 间 2025/9/21 证监许可[2025]75号 上游开工下滑，低位反弹 【本周回顾】 本周PVC震荡上涨。周一高开在4883（较上周收盘涨12点或0.24%），小幅跌至日内低点4863 后强势上涨，周三早盘创月内新高4994后小幅回落，最终收在4950（较上周收盘跌11点或 0.22%）。全周在4863至4994间运行，振幅131点。 【下周展望】 基本面存改善预期，价格有望延续低位反弹。一方面，近期电石价格表现坚挺，成本支撑好 转，根据检修计划，10月新增检修计划增多，供给压力有望缓解。另一方面。尽管出口受政 策扰动，但是增速依旧强进劲，8月出口量为28.4万吨，1-8月出口累计同比增速达55%。目前 产业链 库存结构表现分化，国庆假期临近，上游企业加大预售量，厂内库存压力处于同期中 性水平，现货价格表现坚挺。随着基差走强，产业无风险套利空间 消 失，仓单高位去化，产 业套保压力减少。 【策略】 1）单边：绝对价格低估值，回调试多。V2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC is in a phase of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The supply of PVC continues the weak trend, with high - yield production maintained. Domestic and export demands are weakening, and social inventory is continuously accumulating. However, recently, as coal prices strengthen, the cost - chain support of coal - based production has strengthened, which may limit the downward space [6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Supply and Demand Supply - The risk lies in the possible upward shift of the entire industrial chain price from coal to calcium carbide if coal prices rise in the future, and the cost - side support is expected to strengthen [9]. - In 2025, the first - quarter has seen a new production capacity of 500,000 tons. Fujian Wanhua's 500,000 - ton capacity was put into production on August 2, and the annual production capacity growth rate is expected to be 6.37%. The pressure of production capacity release remains high. - On August 8, the overall operating load rate of PVC powder was 77.75%, a 4.49% increase from the previous period (due to planned maintenance). The annual cumulative production is expected to have a year - on - year growth rate of 3.23% [13]. Demand - **Domestic demand**: The current downstream operating rate is at a low level compared to the same period last year, especially for pipe enterprises. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials. There is a seasonal weakening due to high - temperature in summer [10]. - **Export**: On August 8, the export order volume sample of PVC production enterprises decreased by 5.08% compared to the previous period and increased by 1.89% year - on - year [14]. Inventory - As of August 8, the total inventory of the original sample warehouses in East and South China was 457,600 tons, a 7.44% increase from the previous period and a 14.74% decrease year - on - year. The total inventory of the expanded sample warehouses in East and South China was 718,400 tons, a 6.73% increase from the previous period and an 18.35% decrease year - on - year [11]. 3.2 Disk Data - The PVC price was oscillating this week, mainly due to the game between cost and supply - demand. In terms of supply - demand, the supply remained high, new production capacity was yet to be fully released, while the downstream was still in the off - season, social inventory continued to increase, and registered warehouse receipts also increased. However, on the cost side, driven by the rise in coal prices, semi - coke enterprises raised prices, and the supply of calcium carbide enterprises decreased under the influence of power restrictions, leading to an increase in the cost of the industrial chain. - The basis was at a discount to the disk. This week, the East China 09 basis was around - 200; the 9 - 1 spread was weakly running at - 140. - The position of the 09 contract decreased to around 635,000 lots, and the warehouse receipts increased to around 63,200 lots [21]. 3.3 Regional and Quality Spreads - **Regional spread**: The spread between East and South China's calcium - carbide - based PVC weakened to - 127, and the spread between East and North China's calcium - carbide - based PVC weakened to - 27. - **Ethylene - calcium carbide spread**: The ethylene - calcium carbide spread oscillated around 307 [33]. 3.4 Profit Performance - **Calcium - carbide - based profit**: The current calcium - carbide - based production capacity accounts for 74%. The comprehensive profit of calcium - carbide - based production has shrunk, mainly because the cost has strengthened while the PVC spot price has been weakly oscillating. - For northwest integrated enterprises, the price of semi - coke, a cost factor, increased slightly this month, and the comprehensive profit decreased slightly to around 500 yuan/ton. - For enterprises purchasing calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide increased this week. The comprehensive profit of northwest enterprises purchasing calcium carbide decreased to around 800 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong was compressed to near the break - even point [43][44]. - **Ethylene - based profit**: The current ethylene - based production capacity accounts for about 23.5% (excluding coal - to - methanol - to - ethylene). The adjustment range of the ethylene - based PVC spot price was limited. The profit of enterprises purchasing vinyl chloride was slightly profitable, while the profit of enterprises purchasing ethylene was a loss of 100 yuan/ton [45]. 3.5 Industry - related Product Situation Semi - coke - This week (August 8), the semi - coke price increased slightly. The medium - grade semi - coke in the Shaanxi market was traded at 620 - 650 yuan/ton. The cost pressure of semi - coke production enterprises remained under the firm coal price, and the production enthusiasm of most enterprises was average. Some enterprises had limited inventory, which supported a narrow increase in the ex - factory price, and the price remained stable after the increase. Downstream users mainly purchased on - demand, and the enthusiasm for inventory replenishment was not high. The limestone price remained stable, and the mainstream ex - factory price in Wuhai was 55 - 70 yuan/ton. - On August 8, the operating rate of semi - coke sample enterprises was 54.22%, a 0.57% increase from the previous period. - In the future, the coal consumption of downstream power plants may increase due to high - temperature in August, and the cost pressure will still exist. In addition, the demand for small - sized semi - coke and foreign trade orders are expected to increase, so semi - coke still has room for improvement. The trend of coal prices and the inventory of semi - coke enterprises need to be monitored [66]. Calcium Carbide - This week (August 8), the overall price of calcium carbide shifted upward. The market price of calcium carbide in Wuhai increased from 2,250 yuan/ton to 2,340 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan increase from the previous week. The supply decreased due to maintenance or peak - shaving production, and the price center of calcium carbide in most northwest regions shifted upward. The purchase prices in central and northern China remained stable. - On August 8, the average operating load rate of the calcium carbide industry decreased to 68.89%, a 3.94% decrease from the previous period. One reason is the unstable power supply in Inner Mongolia, and some calcium carbide plants in Wuhai were affected by peak - shaving production. The other reason is that some calcium carbide plants in Ningxia and Gansu were affected by the increase in electricity prices and carried out maintenance or peak - shaving production. - In the future, some affected calcium carbide plants this week are expected to resume production, but the increase in the operating rate may be limited due to peak - shaving production in Inner Mongolia. During the peak electricity - consumption season in August, the operating rate may be unstable. On the demand side, the demand for calcium carbide from PVC plants increased in the first half of August but is expected to be limited in the second half. The semi - coke price may be firm, and the impact of coal - related policies needs to be monitored. Overall, the supply - demand support for calcium carbide is relatively limited, but if the supply decreases more than expected due to peak - shaving production or if the coal price increase is transmitted to the entire coal - based cost chain, the calcium carbide price may rebound [70][75]. Caustic Soda - This week (August 8), the caustic soda market changed little. The price of 32% ionic membrane caustic soda decreased by 10 - 60 yuan/ton in some areas and increased by 10 - 110 yuan/ton in others. The non - aluminum demand in Shandong, Hebei, and South China was weak during the off - season, and the mainstream transaction price center shifted downward. The price in the southwest region increased slightly due to plant maintenance. - On August 8, the weekly operating rate of the caustic soda sample was 85.1%, a 1.2% increase from the previous period, and the weekly inventory was 461,700 tons, an 8.84% increase from the previous period. - In the future, most chlor - alkali enterprises will operate normally, with sufficient supply. During the off - season, downstream users will mainly purchase on - demand. The overall price may be weak, but the price in some areas may increase slightly due to maintenance and low inventory [80]. 3.6 Supply - **Production capacity growth**: The production capacity growth rate in the third quarter is 3.18%, and the annual growth rate is expected to be 6.37%. Fujian Wanhua's 500,000 - ton capacity was put into production on August 2, Bohua Development's 400,000 - ton ethylene - based plant was tested in July and is expected to be in full production in August. Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton ethylene - based plant is planned to be put into production in the third quarter; Jiahua Energy's 300,000 - ton plant is planned for the third or fourth quarter, and other plants may be postponed. The annual production capacity growth rate may be around 6.4%, and the relatively certain growth rate in the third quarter may be 3.18% (900,000 tons/28.33 million - ton capacity) [84]. - **Operation and maintenance**: The theoretical loss due to shutdown and maintenance this week (including long - term shutdown enterprises) was 54,240 tons, a decrease of 27,180 tons from the previous week. Only Ordos No. 2 Factory is planned to be under maintenance next week, and some previously maintained enterprises may resume production. The maintenance loss is expected to decrease next week. The annual cumulative production is expected to have a year - on - year growth rate of 3.23%. The risk is that the upward shift of the entire industrial chain price from coal to calcium carbide may strengthen the cost support [85]. 3.7 Import and Export - In June 2025, the PVC import volume was 24,000 tons, a 63.80% increase from the previous month. The cumulative import from January to June was 124,300 tons, a 32.61% increase from the same period last year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 0.51%. The import sources are mainly the United States and Northeast Asia regions, and the import remains at a low level, with an import dependence of about 1%. - In June 2025, the PVC export volume was 262,000 tons, a 27.61% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative export from January to June was 1.9606 million tons, a 21.03% increase from the same period last year, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 50.20%. The main destination is still India. - In June 2025, the export volume of Chinese PVC floor materials was 323,600 tons, an 8.09% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.091 million tons, an 11.14% decrease from the same period last year. The main destinations are the United States and Canada [113]. 3.8 Downstream Demand - The current downstream operating rate is at a low level compared to the same period last year, especially for pipe enterprises. Domestic downstream product enterprises continue to purchase at low prices and resist high - priced raw materials. There is a seasonal weakening due to high - temperature in summer [136]. - **Real estate**: From January to June, the cumulative year - on - year decline in real estate investment was 11.2%, and the decline slightly expanded; the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new construction area was 20%. The investment confidence has not recovered, and the willingness to start construction is poor. The front - end indicators such as investment, new construction, construction, and completion all showed significant year - on - year declines, indicating that the capital pressure of real estate enterprises has not been substantially relieved, and the development willingness remains weak. Although the decline in the sales end has narrowed, a 3.5% year - on - year decline still shows that the recovery momentum of the demand end is insufficient, and there is a time lag in the transmission of policy relaxation to the market. The real estate market may still be in a downturn, and the demand for PVC may continue to shrink [155][156]. 3.9 Inventory - On August 8, some production enterprises tried to maintain prices, the arbitrage space for traders was limited, and the procurement enthusiasm of hedgers was average. Some factories received fewer orders. Some enterprises had high pre - sales in the previous period and mainly delivered previous orders this week. The salable inventory of sample production enterprises increased compared to the previous period, reaching 496,500 tons, an increase of 42,150 tons. The factory inventory of sample production enterprises decreased slightly compared to the previous period, reaching 327,250 tons, a decrease of 13,430 tons. - As of August 8, due to the decrease in maintenance on the supply side of domestic PVC, the increase in operation, and the normal market arrival, the market price first decreased and then increased, and the downstream's enthusiasm for receiving orders was poor. The total inventory in East and South China continued to increase. As of September 1, the original sample inventory in East China was 405,000 tons, a 7.31% increase from the previous period and an 18.58% decrease year - on - year. The expanded sample inventory in East China was 665,800 tons, a 6.60% increase from the previous period and a 20.76% decrease year - on - year. The sample inventory in South China was 52,600 tons, an 8.45% increase from the previous period and a 32.83% increase year - on - year. The total inventory of the original sample warehouses in East and South China was 457,600 tons, a 7.44% increase from the previous period and a 14.74% decrease year - on - year. The total inventory of the expanded sample warehouses in East and South China was 718,800 tons, a 6.73% increase from the previous period and an 18.35% decrease year - on - year [171].

热点报告-PVC 如何看待当前 PVC 的大涨 ★风险提示 [Table_Summary] ★6 月以来 PVC 基本面环比明显走弱 6 月以来随着春季检修的结束，PVC 供应环比开始增加。同时随着 东南亚和印度进入雨季，6 月中国 PVC 出口环比也明显走弱。在此 背景下，从 6 月中旬开始，PVC 社会库存结束了从 2 月底以来的持 续去化开始转为持续的累库，PVC 基本面环比出现了明显的走弱。 ★供给端政策尚无明确执行细则，且 PVC 老旧装置不多 能 源 化 工 无论是反内卷还是老旧装置改造，当前 PVC 行业尚未有官方正式 的可执行细则出台。而据卓创资讯统计，当前运行时间超过 20 年 的 PVC 装置共 218 万吨/年，其中 35 万吨/年还处于长停状态。整 体而言，由于 PVC 行业在 2013 年-2015 年经历过一轮自发的产能 出清，且最近两三年高成本的电石法装置也在出清，因此行业整体 装置较新。后续政策的实际影响有待观察。 ★投资建议 从基本面去看，当前 PVC 供需环比有明显走弱。但政策的强预期 扭转了市场之前过于悲观的情绪，推动了盘面大幅上涨。不过当前 的上涨暂时未明显反作用于供需 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the PVC market in Asia, highlighting the upcoming production of certain facilities and the continuous increase in inventory over the past four weeks, raising questions about the sustainability of PVC prices [1] Group 1: Production and Inventory - Several production facilities are set to come online soon, which may impact the supply dynamics in the PVC market [1] - Inventory levels have increased for four consecutive weeks, indicating a potential oversupply situation that could pressure prices [1] Group 2: Price Stability - The article raises concerns about whether PVC prices can remain strong amidst rising inventory and new production capacity coming online [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term fluctuations, with pressure in the later period. Although affected by the supply disruption of bauxite in Guinea and the rise of alumina, there is a lack of continuous upward drive from the fundamental perspective. The downstream inventory - building sustainability determines the rebound duration. In the future, it will still be in a high - production pattern, and profit compression and supply reduction are needed to balance supply and demand in the later period [5][6]. - **PVC**: Weak and fluctuating. Although the Sino - US phased reconciliation has a positive impact on sentiment, the current high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to ease. High production is difficult to change in the short term, and high - inventory pressure persists. Profit compression and supply reduction are required to balance supply and demand [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - **Price**: The price of the cheapest deliverable product in Shandong is about 2,594 yuan/ton. The 09 basis of caustic soda has strengthened, and the 7 - 9 spread has oscillated at a low level. The 50 - 32 alkali spread is slightly higher than the evaporation cost, which is positive for caustic soda. The export expectation in May has improved, mainly due to the resumption of nickel production capacity in Indonesia [11][16][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: The market contradiction is first reflected in the spread, which will return in the medium term. The 50 - 32 alkali spread is an advanced indicator of the market. The export profit is acceptable, and attention should be paid to the signing of export orders. The arbitrage space between Shandong and South China is generally limited [21][29][30]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Supply - **Market Structure**: Production has declined, and inventory has increased. This week, the domestic caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 82.6%, a 1.3% decrease from the previous week. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 415,900 tons (wet tons), a 7.09% increase from the previous week and a 1.74% increase from the same period last year [37][38]. - **Maintenance and New Capacity**: Attention should be paid to the maintenance scale from June to August. In 2025, the new caustic soda production capacity will be 2.55 million tons, with a capacity increase of 5.2%. However, considering the continuous losses of chlorine - consuming downstream industries, especially PVC, the overall production capacity launch may be lower than expected [44][47]. - **Profit and Downstream**: The price of liquid chlorine has declined, the price of caustic soda has increased, and the chlor - alkali profit has declined. The current profit situation is very good, and power - self - supplying enterprises have no motivation to reduce production, while grid - power enterprises still have a large profit margin. The start - up of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and chloroform has different trends [48][51][53]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Demand - **Alumina Industry**: Alumina production and inventory have declined, and profits have rebounded. Most alumina enterprises are still in a loss state, and new maintenance and production - reduction capacities are gradually increasing. Low - profit situations weaken the inventory - building efforts for caustic soda. The new production line of Weiqiao in May is expected to increase short - term demand for caustic soda, while the caustic soda procurement efforts of Wenfeng may weaken next month [73][77][84]. - **Non - Aluminum Industries**: The pulp industry has capacity expansion, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the start - up has declined. The start - up of the finished paper industry has decreased month - on - month. The start - up of the viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing industries has recovered, and the short - term demand has warmed up. The start - up of the water treatment industry has decreased month - on - month, and the start - up of the ternary precursor industry has been stable [86][97][100]. 3.4 PVC Price and Spread - **Price and Spread**: The PVC basis has weakened, and the 9 - 1 spread has strengthened [114]. 3.5 PVC Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The start - up of PVC has declined month - on - month but has not reached the level of production reduction in 2023. After mid - May 2025, PVC maintenance has gradually increased. There will be 2.1 million tons of new PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025, and there will be concentrated production capacity launches from June to July. The profit of northwest integrated plants has declined but has not yet reached a loss state [117][118][119]. - **Demand**: PVC downstream industries have increased month - on - month, and PVC production enterprises and social inventories are in the process of destocking. The number of warehouse receipts will rise again [124][129][130].