Report Investment Rating - PX: Short-term trading range, hold long PXN [8] - PTA: Short-term trading range, reduce short positions [9] - MEG: Hold 1-5 reverse spread [1] Core Viewpoints - PX is in a short-term trading range, with potential for PXN profit expansion due to factors like MX price changes, expected improvement in polyester consumption, and tight supply-demand. PTA's demand is expected to improve marginally, in a trading range, and short positions should be reduced. MEG's unilateral trend remains weak, with sufficient domestic supply and increasing inventory [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX paper futures were slightly weak in the afternoon, with no valuation for physical goods due to the Singapore holiday. PTA futures oscillated downward in the morning, with stable spot basis in the morning and weakening in the afternoon. A 400,000-ton/year MEG plant in Guangdong restarted, while a 400,000-ton/year MEG plant in Fujian began maintenance [4] Futures and Spot Data - PX主力昨日收盘价6268, down 24 (-0.38%); PTA主力4384, down 18 (-0.41%); MEG主力4003, unchanged; PF主力6028, down 8 (-0.13%); SC主力435.8, up 0.8 (0.18%). PX CFR China was 782.67 dollars/ton (-3.5), PTA in East China was 4325 yuan/ton (-15), MEG spot was 4094 (-2), etc [2] Trend Intensity - PX, PTA, and MEG all have a trend intensity of -1, indicating a bearish view [7] Supply and Demand Analysis - PX supply is tight with some domestic and Asian plants under maintenance, while PTA demand may improve with new device startups. MEG domestic supply is sufficient and inventory is accumulating [8][9] Polyester Market - A 250,000-ton polyester plant in Fujian plans to restart on October 25. Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester filament sales were average today (5 - 60% by 3:30 pm) and weak on the weekend (3 - 40% average). Direct-spun polyester staple fiber sales were okay today (77% average by 3:00 pm) [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No explicit industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for each commodity: - **Neutral (0)**: PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, paper pulp, methanol, LPG, propylene, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, urea [2][9][13] - **Weakly Bearish (-1)**: LLDPE, PP, glass,烧碱, PVC,纯碱 [36][40][51] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term and medium - term outlooks for various energy and chemical commodities. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, macro - economic events, and trade relations. For most commodities, the market is influenced by a combination of fundamental factors and macro - level events, leading to a mix of trends including short - term oscillations and long - term bearish or bullish tendencies [9][20][56] 3. Summary by Commodity Aromatics and Polyester Chain - **PX**: Short - term range - bound market, long PXN. Supply is slightly tight due to planned and unexpected plant shutdowns. Demand may improve with the onset of cold weather and the start - up of new PTA plants [9] - **PTA**: Demand may improve marginally. It's a range - bound market for the single - side, and short positions should be reduced. Supply increases with new plant start - ups, and demand is affected by polyester consumption and trade relations [10] - **MEG**: Short positions below 4000 should be reduced. Domestic plant operating rates are rising, but some plants will undergo maintenance. Import and cost factors also impact the market [11] Rubber - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to trade sideways. Vietnam's rubber exports in September decreased due to weather and weak demand, but a slight increase is expected in October [13][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Likely to oscillate in the short term. There is fundamental pressure from high supply, but the valuation is moderately low, and macro - events may support the price [20] Asphalt - Follows crude oil and trades weakly with oscillations. Production decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories declined [21][33] Plastics - **LLDPE**: The trend is bearish. Market sentiment is weak, cost support from crude oil is reduced, and supply and inventory pressures are high [34][35] - **PP**: The trend remains bearish. Trade wars, falling oil prices, and high supply suppress the market price [38][39] - **PVC**: The trend is bearish. Trade wars, cost declines, and high supply and inventory levels create pressure on the market [71] Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The far - month valuation is suppressed by alumina production cut expectations. Supply and demand are affected by alumina industry conditions and winter maintenance schedules [43] - **Methanol**: Expected to trade sideways. There is fundamental pressure from high supply and inventory, but the valuation is moderately low, and macro - events may support the price [56] - **Urea**: Short - term oscillations with a bearish medium - term trend. High social inventory, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export policies contribute to the situation [59][60] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market shows little change. Supply is high, and downstream demand is weak, leading to a short - term weak and oscillating market [61] - **LPG**: The futures valuation is being repaired, but macro - risks remain. PDH operating rates are decreasing [64] - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and it trades weakly with oscillations in the short term [64] Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: There was a slight night - session rebound, but the short - term weakness persists. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Undergoes narrow - range adjustments, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [73] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Spot prices show little change, and geopolitical issues are recurring. Freight rates are affected by various factors such as market supply and demand and exchange rates [75]