1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main focus in the fourth quarter remains on the US biofuel policy and China-US/China-Canada relations, with policy impacts far outweighing fundamentals. After policies are gradually implemented, long opportunities mainly in palm oil are favored [5]. - The US is the biggest variable in the international oil market in the fourth quarter. The biofuel policy, especially the blending targets for 2026 - 27, as well as the redistribution plan for small refineries and the RINs coefficient for imported raw materials, will directly affect US soybean oil demand and the international oil price center [101]. - Palm oil will be influenced by US soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and it has its own drivers. The supply side may face early - onset production cuts and potential extreme rainfall due to La Nina, while the demand side focuses on Indonesia's B40 plan and potential B50 policies [102]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Market Review - Internationally, Malaysian palm oil (MPO) outperformed US soybean oil in the third quarter. US soybean oil prices fluctuated around policy expectations and market rumors, and dropped below 50 cents/pound at the end of September. MPO remained at a high level supported by supply - demand patterns and US soybean oil prices [11]. - Domestically, the three major oils showed an upward trend with significant differences in strength. Palm oil followed the international market, while soybean and rapeseed oils were more affected by policies. Palm oil had a supply - demand weak situation, soybean oil had a strong de - stocking expectation but was still accumulating inventory, and rapeseed oil had a slow de - stocking speed due to high inventory and weak consumption [14]. 3.2 International Market Outlook 3.2.1 North and South America - **US**: - The planting and harvested areas of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased significantly. Although the current yield per acre is ideal, there is still a possibility of a decline due to insufficient rainfall [19]. - The biofuel policy is beneficial to US soybean crushing demand, but the room for further significant increases in crushing is limited. The proportion of soybean oil in biofuel raw materials has rebounded, and the 45Z subsidy and increased RVO obligations from 2026 will further boost soybean oil demand [22][25]. - There is a large divergence in the market regarding the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions. EPA's proposed re - allocation has caused dissatisfaction among refineries [38]. - After the signing of the Big and Beautiful Act, the 45Z clean fuel tax credit has become law, which will lead to a substitution of a large part of UCO and tallow demand by North - American sourced soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and corn oil [42]. - If the EPA's proposed blending targets are met, there will be a supply gap in US soybean oil in 2026, which can only be filled by increasing imports. However, due to policy uncertainties, significant growth in soybean oil consumption in the fourth quarter is unlikely [44]. - **Canada**: - The final production forecast of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is 20.1 million tons. China's anti - dumping tax on Canadian rapeseed is negative for its price, but the impact will be mitigated by expanded domestic crushing capacity and alternative export markets. Domestic crushing is expected to increase slightly, while exports will decline to 7 million tons [47]. - The price difference between European and Canadian rapeseed makes the EU have an incentive to import Canadian rapeseed. The improvement in domestic rapeseed crushing margins and the support for biofuel development offset the impact of reduced Chinese purchases [51]. 3.2.2 Asia - **Malaysian Palm Oil (MPO)**: - As of the third quarter, MPO had sufficient inventory, but production cuts may start earlier in September due to weather conditions. In the fourth quarter, the probability of La Nina increases, and there is a risk of floods and over - expected production cuts [53][70]. - MPO's domestic demand is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, mainly due to potential CPO exports as POME to the EU and the support of biodiesel consumption [59]. - In terms of demand, MPO exports may recover slightly in the fourth quarter, with a peak in October. If US soybean oil can support the global soybean oil price center, palm oil may still be the preferred choice for countries like India [73]. - The pressure on MPO to accumulate inventory has passed, and it is expected to start de - stocking in September - October and accelerate the process in the fourth quarter [76]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil (IPO)**: - IPO production has recovered well this year, but the potential impact of the government's crackdown on illegal plantations remains. The transfer of plantation management may lead to supply uncertainties [79]. - It is difficult to achieve both high exports and high inventory in Indonesia. Domestic demand is more rigid, and the B40 plan needs to catch up in the fourth quarter. The inventory is expected to remain at around 2 million tons [83]. - The biodiesel industry in Indonesia is suffering serious losses, but it has little impact on actual blending. As of July 16, 2025, the B40 plan completion rate was about 47.51%. To complete the plan, there is still a large amount of remaining allocation and palm oil consumption required [90][91]. - **India**: - Before the Diwali festival, India's vegetable oil inventory is still low. In August, palm oil imports increased significantly, while soybean oil imports decreased. The total edible oil imports reached a 13 - month high [94]. - After replenishing inventory from June - August, India still has a need to continue purchasing and accumulating inventory. In the fourth quarter, India is expected to mainly purchase palm oil and South American soybean oil, with palm oil imports showing a trend of high in the early part and low in the late part [97][100]. 3.3 Domestic Market Outlook - **Palm Oil**: - In the fourth quarter, domestic palm oil is expected to maintain a supply - demand weak situation, following the international market. The narrowing import profit margin has led to an increase in purchases, and the inventory has reached a relatively high level, which is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [104][106]. - **Soybean Oil**: - In the third quarter, domestic soybean oil inventory accumulated rapidly due to a large amount of soybean arrivals and weak consumption. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to gradually de - stock, but inventory may still accumulate until the middle and late fourth quarter and then turn to de - stocking. Although exports have increased significantly, the possibility of large - scale exports continuing is low after India's备货 ends [111][134]. - If there is no reconciliation between China and the US and no purchase of US soybeans, there may be a shortage of soybean oil in the first quarter of next year [117]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - Currently, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is extremely high, especially after the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The import of rapeseed has decreased significantly, and the oil mill's rapeseed intake has shrunk year - on - year. The开机 rate is expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter [120][125]. - The high price of rapeseed oil has led to low consumption, and it has been mostly replaced by soybean oil. Near the Double Festival, demand is expected to improve slightly [128]. - Russia has become the main source of China's rapeseed oil imports. Although imports can supplement the short - term supply, they cannot fully make up for the long - term gap caused by the lack of Canadian rapeseed [131]. 3.4 Strategies and Summary - The core is the US biofuel policy, which affects the global oil price center. Before the policy is determined, the market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 50 - 60 cents/pound [137]. - **Palm Oil**: - In the fourth quarter, palm oil is driven by supply and biodiesel. It is expected that Indonesia's B40 plan can be successfully completed, and domestic demand will increase. After the US biofuel policy is settled, palm oil prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategies are to go long on the palm oil 01 contract, conduct 1 - 5 positive spreads, and shrink the soybean - palm oil 01 contract price difference [137]. - **Soybean Oil**: - The current situation of the soybean oil market is weak, and it is difficult to see de - stocking in the short term. The inventory pressure may ease in the second half of the fourth quarter, but supply shortages are unlikely to occur. The recommended strategy is to shrink the soybean - palm oil 01 contract price difference [137]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - The spot supply of rapeseed oil is relatively sufficient, but the supply gap of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is highly certain, and the market sentiment for going long is better than that of soybean oil. The recommended strategies are to go long on the rapeseed oil 01 contract and conduct 1 - 5 positive spreads [137].

1. Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - **Copper**: The short - term price range is expected to be between 77,300 and 79,000, and the medium - term range is 60,000 - 90,000. A volatile trading strategy is recommended. Trump's proposed 50% tariff on US copper imports, supply changes in Chile and Indonesia, weak growth in Chinese home air - conditioner exports, and inventory increases are the main influencing factors. The high tariff may negatively impact real demand in the US [1][2]. Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector - **Protein Meal**: In the short term, the fluctuation of soybean meal is smaller than that of soybean oil. The soybean meal 2509 contract is expected to find a bottom in the range of [2,875, 3,100]. It is recommended to continue holding the short position of the out - of - the - money put option of soybean meal 2508 - P - 2850. The weather during the growing season of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseeds, trade policies, and the results of relevant hearings are the key factors affecting the market [3][5]. Petroleum Asphalt - In the short term, asphalt is expected to fluctuate and strengthen following the cost of crude oil. In the long term, the supply is on the rise, and factors such as typhoon weather in summer and insufficient project funds may affect the release of rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the marginal improvement of asphalt demand in August [6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Supply**: In June, Chile's copper export value was $4.67 billion, a 17.5% year - on - year increase. Indonesia may relax the copper concentrate export ban on Amman Mineral International due to local economic impacts [1]. - **Demand**: In May 2025, China's home air - conditioner exports were 9.695 million units, a slight 0.1% year - on - year increase, affected by the high base last year and "rush - to - export" behavior [1]. - **Inventory**: On July 9, LME copper inventory increased by 4,625 tons, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 2,227 tons to 21,336 tons [2]. Protein Meal - **Soybean**: From late May to now, the soil moisture of US soybeans and Canadian rapeseeds has been good. As of July 6, the good - to - excellent rate of 25/26 US soybeans was 66%, the flowering rate was 32%, and the pod - setting rate was 8%. Anec expects sufficient soybean arrivals in South America in July and August, and the trend of imported soybean inventory accumulation is gradually ending [3][4]. - **Rapeseed**: The drought in Canadian new - crop rapeseeds in late June has recently improved. As of June 30, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseeds in Alberta has recovered from 45% to 58%. The development progress of oilseed crops and annual forage crops in Saskatchewan is still slower than normal but earlier than last year [4]. Petroleum Asphalt - **Supply**: As of July 8, the production profit of asphalt in Shandong independent refineries was - 543.66 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 95.61 yuan/ton. The domestic asphalt refinery operating rate was 32.7%, a weekly increase of 1.0 percentage point. The domestic weekly asphalt production was 566,000 tons, a weekly increase of 13,000 tons. In the first six months of this year, China's cumulative asphalt production was 13.781 million tons, a 5.2% year - on - year increase [6]. - **Demand**: The terminal demand for asphalt is weak, mainly restricted by capital shortages and heavy rainfall in the South. The demand in the North is relatively stable. After the plum - rain season in East and South China in July, it theoretically enters the peak demand season, but some northern regions are still affected by rainfall. The social inventory depletion has slowed down [7]. - **Cost**: The extension of the US tariff negotiation period and Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels have provided upward momentum for oil prices. In summer, the peak driving season arrives, refinery operating rates in major oil - consuming countries return to normal, and US shale oil production has declined for ten consecutive weeks, providing some support for oil prices [7].

Report Overview - **Date**: June 26, 2025 - **Report Type**: Main Variety Strategy Breakfast - **Covered Industries**: Commodity Futures and Options (including Metal and New Energy Materials, Livestock and Soft Commodities, Energy and Chemicals) Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: 78300 - 79300 [1] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [1] Core View - The Fed's expected rate cut, declining scrap copper supply, tight supply - demand of copper concentrates, increased US trade demand, and continuous destocking of domestic inventories will boost copper prices [4] Summary by Section - **Macro**: Most Fed officials believe it is appropriate to cut interest rates later this year [1] - **Supply**: In May, total scrap copper imports decreased by 9.55% month - on - month and 6.63% year - on - year. The proportion of scrap copper imports from the US will fall below 5% in June. Spot supply in the Guangdong market increased, while that in the North China market was normal [1] - **Demand**: In May, the total export volume of refined copper rods increased by 17.57% month - on - month and 34% year - on - year. However, terminal demand weakened in June. Many recycled copper rod enterprises had insufficient orders, and downstream copper factories in Chongqing almost stopped purchasing [2] - **Inventory**: On June 25, LME copper inventory decreased by 1200 tons to 93475 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 955 tons to 21470 tons [2] - **Strategy**: Adopt an operation idea of sideways with a bullish bias and sell deep out - of - the - money put options [1] Livestock and Soft Commodities - Protein Meal Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: Soybean meal 2509 will oscillate weakly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Soybean meal 2509 will build a bottom in the range of [2900, 3100] [5] Core View - Domestic soybean meal is influenced by multiple factors. After recent declines fully digesting negative factors, it may build a phased bottom around 3000 points. The "sell out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400" strategy can be continued [5][7] Summary by Section - **Weather and Geopolitics**: In late June, soybean meal 2509 entered a volatile market due to uncertain weather in US and Canadian rapeseed producing areas. The easing of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has affected the price of soybean meal [5] - **International Soybeans**: As of the week ending June 22, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%. Forecasts show sufficient import volumes of soybeans from June to August. Anec raised Brazil's soybean export forecast for June to 14.99 million tons [6] - **Rapeseed**: Canadian new - crop rapeseed is planted relatively fast but is experiencing mild drought. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture raised the export volume of old - crop rapeseed by 500,000 tons to 9 million tons [6] - **Strategy**: Continue to hold the position of selling out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400 [5] Energy and Chemicals - Petroleum Asphalt Investment Ratings - **Intraday View**: Weak sideways movement [8] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [9] Core View - The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, and asphalt futures prices have also followed. In the long term, the asphalt fundamentals are relatively weak in summer, and the asphalt crack spread will continue to weaken [11] Summary by Section - **Supply**: Local refineries' losses in asphalt production have decreased, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate and production have increased. It is expected that they will continue to rise before the peak season [9] - **Demand**: High prices in the north and rainfall in the south have restricted demand. Some downstream enterprises have pre - stocking demand. The operating rate of waterproofing membrane enterprises has increased significantly. Asphalt plant inventories have continued to decline, and the decline in social inventories has slowed down [10] - **Cost**: In the short term, oil prices have fallen due to the extrusion of geopolitical premiums. In the long term, oil prices are still under pressure [10] - **Strategy**: Short fuel oil and long asphalt spread [9]