1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main focus in the fourth quarter remains on the US biofuel policy and China-US/China-Canada relations, with policy impacts far outweighing fundamentals. After policies are gradually implemented, long opportunities mainly in palm oil are favored [5]. - The US is the biggest variable in the international oil market in the fourth quarter. The biofuel policy, especially the blending targets for 2026 - 27, as well as the redistribution plan for small refineries and the RINs coefficient for imported raw materials, will directly affect US soybean oil demand and the international oil price center [101]. - Palm oil will be influenced by US soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and it has its own drivers. The supply side may face early - onset production cuts and potential extreme rainfall due to La Nina, while the demand side focuses on Indonesia's B40 plan and potential B50 policies [102]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Market Review - Internationally, Malaysian palm oil (MPO) outperformed US soybean oil in the third quarter. US soybean oil prices fluctuated around policy expectations and market rumors, and dropped below 50 cents/pound at the end of September. MPO remained at a high level supported by supply - demand patterns and US soybean oil prices [11]. - Domestically, the three major oils showed an upward trend with significant differences in strength. Palm oil followed the international market, while soybean and rapeseed oils were more affected by policies. Palm oil had a supply - demand weak situation, soybean oil had a strong de - stocking expectation but was still accumulating inventory, and rapeseed oil had a slow de - stocking speed due to high inventory and weak consumption [14]. 3.2 International Market Outlook 3.2.1 North and South America - **US**: - The planting and harvested areas of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased significantly. Although the current yield per acre is ideal, there is still a possibility of a decline due to insufficient rainfall [19]. - The biofuel policy is beneficial to US soybean crushing demand, but the room for further significant increases in crushing is limited. The proportion of soybean oil in biofuel raw materials has rebounded, and the 45Z subsidy and increased RVO obligations from 2026 will further boost soybean oil demand [22][25]. - There is a large divergence in the market regarding the re - allocation of small refinery exemptions. EPA's proposed re - allocation has caused dissatisfaction among refineries [38]. - After the signing of the Big and Beautiful Act, the 45Z clean fuel tax credit has become law, which will lead to a substitution of a large part of UCO and tallow demand by North - American sourced soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and corn oil [42]. - If the EPA's proposed blending targets are met, there will be a supply gap in US soybean oil in 2026, which can only be filled by increasing imports. However, due to policy uncertainties, significant growth in soybean oil consumption in the fourth quarter is unlikely [44]. - **Canada**: - The final production forecast of Canadian rapeseed in the 2025/26 season is 20.1 million tons. China's anti - dumping tax on Canadian rapeseed is negative for its price, but the impact will be mitigated by expanded domestic crushing capacity and alternative export markets. Domestic crushing is expected to increase slightly, while exports will decline to 7 million tons [47]. - The price difference between European and Canadian rapeseed makes the EU have an incentive to import Canadian rapeseed. The improvement in domestic rapeseed crushing margins and the support for biofuel development offset the impact of reduced Chinese purchases [51]. 3.2.2 Asia - **Malaysian Palm Oil (MPO)**: - As of the third quarter, MPO had sufficient inventory, but production cuts may start earlier in September due to weather conditions. In the fourth quarter, the probability of La Nina increases, and there is a risk of floods and over - expected production cuts [53][70]. - MPO's domestic demand is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, mainly due to potential CPO exports as POME to the EU and the support of biodiesel consumption [59]. - In terms of demand, MPO exports may recover slightly in the fourth quarter, with a peak in October. If US soybean oil can support the global soybean oil price center, palm oil may still be the preferred choice for countries like India [73]. - The pressure on MPO to accumulate inventory has passed, and it is expected to start de - stocking in September - October and accelerate the process in the fourth quarter [76]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil (IPO)**: - IPO production has recovered well this year, but the potential impact of the government's crackdown on illegal plantations remains. The transfer of plantation management may lead to supply uncertainties [79]. - It is difficult to achieve both high exports and high inventory in Indonesia. Domestic demand is more rigid, and the B40 plan needs to catch up in the fourth quarter. The inventory is expected to remain at around 2 million tons [83]. - The biodiesel industry in Indonesia is suffering serious losses, but it has little impact on actual blending. As of July 16, 2025, the B40 plan completion rate was about 47.51%. To complete the plan, there is still a large amount of remaining allocation and palm oil consumption required [90][91]. - **India**: - Before the Diwali festival, India's vegetable oil inventory is still low. In August, palm oil imports increased significantly, while soybean oil imports decreased. The total edible oil imports reached a 13 - month high [94]. - After replenishing inventory from June - August, India still has a need to continue purchasing and accumulating inventory. In the fourth quarter, India is expected to mainly purchase palm oil and South American soybean oil, with palm oil imports showing a trend of high in the early part and low in the late part [97][100]. 3.3 Domestic Market Outlook - **Palm Oil**: - In the fourth quarter, domestic palm oil is expected to maintain a supply - demand weak situation, following the international market. The narrowing import profit margin has led to an increase in purchases, and the inventory has reached a relatively high level, which is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [104][106]. - **Soybean Oil**: - In the third quarter, domestic soybean oil inventory accumulated rapidly due to a large amount of soybean arrivals and weak consumption. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to gradually de - stock, but inventory may still accumulate until the middle and late fourth quarter and then turn to de - stocking. Although exports have increased significantly, the possibility of large - scale exports continuing is low after India's备货 ends [111][134]. - If there is no reconciliation between China and the US and no purchase of US soybeans, there may be a shortage of soybean oil in the first quarter of next year [117]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - Currently, domestic rapeseed oil inventory is extremely high, especially after the anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed. The import of rapeseed has decreased significantly, and the oil mill's rapeseed intake has shrunk year - on - year. The开机 rate is expected to continue to decline in the fourth quarter [120][125]. - The high price of rapeseed oil has led to low consumption, and it has been mostly replaced by soybean oil. Near the Double Festival, demand is expected to improve slightly [128]. - Russia has become the main source of China's rapeseed oil imports. Although imports can supplement the short - term supply, they cannot fully make up for the long - term gap caused by the lack of Canadian rapeseed [131]. 3.4 Strategies and Summary - The core is the US biofuel policy, which affects the global oil price center. Before the policy is determined, the market is expected to fluctuate within the range of 50 - 60 cents/pound [137]. - **Palm Oil**: - In the fourth quarter, palm oil is driven by supply and biodiesel. It is expected that Indonesia's B40 plan can be successfully completed, and domestic demand will increase. After the US biofuel policy is settled, palm oil prices are expected to rise. The recommended strategies are to go long on the palm oil 01 contract, conduct 1 - 5 positive spreads, and shrink the soybean - palm oil 01 contract price difference [137]. - **Soybean Oil**: - The current situation of the soybean oil market is weak, and it is difficult to see de - stocking in the short term. The inventory pressure may ease in the second half of the fourth quarter, but supply shortages are unlikely to occur. The recommended strategy is to shrink the soybean - palm oil 01 contract price difference [137]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - The spot supply of rapeseed oil is relatively sufficient, but the supply gap of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is highly certain, and the market sentiment for going long is better than that of soybean oil. The recommended strategies are to go long on the rapeseed oil 01 contract and conduct 1 - 5 positive spreads [137].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oilseeds: The global soybean market shows complex trends. The US soybean was initially boosted by the EPA's SRE policy but then corrected due to lack of continuous positive policies. The market is optimistic about US soybean purchases during the China - US talks, keeping the outer - market firm. In the US, the late - stage growth of soybeans faces uncertainties due to weather. In South America, Brazil is about to start planting new - crop soybeans, and low soil moisture may affect production [1][2]. - International oils: For palm oil, Malaysia's supply pressure is limited due to increased exports, while Indonesia's supply and transportation are a concern. The increase in export reference prices may affect demand, but global demand is still supported. US soybean oil remains neutral with low inventory and uncertain policies. Canadian canola oil is affected by weather and China - Canada trade policies [3][7]. - Domestic oilseeds: The domestic oilseed market shows a narrow - range oscillation. The outer - market is strong due to China - US talks, while the inner - market lacks stimulus. The purchase of imported soybeans is affected by various factors, and there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. Domestic soybean meal shows seasonal accumulation, and rapeseed meal may see accelerated inventory reduction [8]. - Domestic oils: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of domestic oils is not significant. There is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Oilseeds Global Soybean - After the EPA announced the SRE policy, US soybean oil soared, driving up US soybeans. Then, due to lack of continuous positive policies, the market sentiment declined, but the China - US talks kept the outer - market firm, and the Brazilian premium weakened [1]. US Soybean - New - crop planting is in the late sowing stage. In August, the Midwest experienced low - temperature and dry weather, which may affect crop growth, increase the risk of frost damage, and make the growth uncertainty similar to last year [2]. South American Soybean - Brazil is about to start planting new - crop soybeans. Due to low soil moisture in some major producing areas, the average yield and output of soybeans in some areas are expected to decline. If the soil moisture cannot be improved by rainfall, it may have a great impact on the new - crop soybean production [2]. International Oils Palm Oil - Malaysia has increased exports with limited supply pressure due to more rainfall. In Indonesia, domestic unrest and rainfall have raised concerns about supply and transportation. The B40 plan supports local demand, and inventory growth is limited. Although the increase in export reference prices may suppress demand, global demand is still supported by India's purchases [3]. Soybean Oil - US biodiesel policies lack further guidance, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. US soybean oil inventory is low, and there is no obvious negative driver. The impact of weather on production cannot be ignored [7]. Canola Oil - The weather in Canada, the main producing area, is normal. Its demand may be affected by China - Canada trade policies. Future attention should be paid to China - Canada relations and Canadian weather [7]. Domestic Oilseeds Disk Review - The outer - market oscillates strongly due to China - US talks, while the inner - market shows a narrow - range oscillation in the short term due to lack of news [8]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Imported soybeans: The Brazilian premium has declined, and the profit of domestic purchases has slightly decreased. The pace of purchasing has slowed down. The soybean arrivals in September, October, and November are 10 million tons, 9 million tons, and 8 million tons respectively. Without purchasing US soybeans, there may be a supply gap after the first quarter of next year [8]. - Domestic soybean meal: The trading logic has shifted to the far - month contract. The supply of imported soybeans is at a seasonal high, and the oil mill's crushing volume has slightly increased. The inventory shows a seasonal accumulation. The downstream demand is stable [8]. - Rapeseed meal: Due to the expectation of China - Canada talks, the short - term sentiment suppresses the disk. The inventory may be reduced seasonally, and the opportunity to go long depends on the change of warehouse receipts [8]. Future Outlook - The weather in the late - stage growth of US soybeans has been improved to some extent, and future attention should be paid to US soybean exports. The domestic soybean market may be weak in the short term and may stabilize in the far - month contract. The domestic rapeseed market may be weak due to the expectation of China - Canada talks [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - Wait for the opportunity to go long at low prices [8]. Domestic Oils Disk Review - There is limited news from the producing areas, but the medium - and long - term trend of oils is upward [9]. Supply - Demand Analysis - Palm oil: The price of the producing area lacks a clear driver, but the increase in production may end early. The domestic inventory pressure is moderate, and the demand is poor. The import profit is still in an inverted state [9]. - Soybean oil: The current inventory pressure is large, and the inventory accumulation continues. However, there is an expectation of a raw - material gap in the fourth quarter, and exports to India may accelerate inventory reduction [9]. - Canola oil: The inventory is still at a high level. Although the new supply is limited, the domestic supply is sufficient. The consumption is poor, and the inventory reduction is slow. Future attention should be paid to China - Canada relations and Australian rapeseed imports [9]. Future Outlook - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of domestic oils is not significant. The decline recently is due to capital withdrawal and sentiment slowdown. There is a strong expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter [9]. Nanhua's Viewpoint - Oils are expected to oscillate in the short term and rise in the medium - and long - term. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The U.S. biodiesel policy is favorable for the vegetable oil market, which may support the prices of CBOT soybeans and U.S. soybean oil. Due to the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the rising premium of Brazilian soybeans, the import of soybeans in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and soybean oil has upward potential [2][13][23]. - The current situation of palm oil is that Malaysia has a high inventory while Indonesia has a decreasing inventory. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 plan is expected to increase industrial consumption, but the export data of Malaysian palm oil shows weak demand. The pattern of high inventory and high production of palm oil is difficult to change, lacking upward momentum [3][16][24]. - Affected by the current situation of weak supply and demand, rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation pattern [3][22][24]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review In July, the trends of oils and fats were divergent. Palm oil continued to rise, soybean oil first declined and then rose, and rapeseed oil maintained a wide - range oscillation. The U.S. biodiesel policy and Indonesia's B40 plan boosted the prices of palm oil and international oils, while the improvement of China - Australia trade relations put pressure on rapeseed oil prices [9]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **U.S. Biodiesel Policy Benefits**: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's proposed biofuel blending rules for 2026 - 2027 are favorable for the industrial demand of domestic oils. The demand for soybean oil in biofuels is increasing, and the future domestic crushing demand for U.S. soybeans is expected to grow. The export tax cuts in Argentina may stimulate soybean exports, and the high premium of Brazilian soybeans and the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans support the price of soybean oil. Although the soybean oil inventory is currently high, the seasonal inventory inflection point is approaching in August, which also supports the price [10][13][15]. - **Palm Oil Supply - Demand Pattern is Loose**: In June, Malaysian palm oil continued to accumulate inventory, and the export data in July was not ideal. It is expected to maintain a pattern of high inventory and high production in the third quarter. In Indonesia, the implementation of the B40 plan is expected to increase industrial consumption, but overall, the upward momentum of palm oil is weak [16][17][24]. - **Rapeseed Oil Continues the Oscillation Pattern**: The new rapeseed production in Canada is expected to decrease, and the export demand is strong, making ICE rapeseed prices strong. The improvement of China - Australia trade relations may lead to an increase in the import of Australian rapeseed, which is negative for the domestic rapeseed market. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has not ended, and the trend of reducing rapeseed imports and increasing rapeseed oil imports is expected to continue. Rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation [20][22][24]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the continued additional tariffs on U.S. soybeans and the rising premium of Brazilian soybeans, the import of soybeans in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and soybean oil has upward potential [2][13][23]. - The high - inventory and high - production pattern of palm oil is difficult to change, lacking upward momentum [3][16][24]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation pattern [3][22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean import in China is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the cost of imported soybeans is increasing, so there is an upward space for soybean oil [2][3][12] - The pattern of high inventory and high production of palm oil is difficult to change, and it lacks upward momentum [3][16][24] - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue the wide - range shock pattern due to the current situation of weak supply and demand [3][20][24] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - In July, the trends of oils and fats were differentiated. Palm oil continued to rise, soybean oil first declined and then rose, and rapeseed oil maintained a wide - range shock [9] - The U.S. biodiesel policy is beneficial to the consumption of vegetable oils, and the increase in U.S. soybean oil drives up the international oil prices. The implementation of Indonesia's B40 plan boosts the palm oil price, while the improvement of China - Australia trade relations puts pressure on the rapeseed oil price [9] 3.2. Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1. U.S. Biodiesel Policy Benefits - The U.S. biodiesel policy is beneficial to the industrial demand of domestic oils and fats. The demand for domestic soybean crushing in the U.S. is expected to increase, which supports the CBOT soybean and U.S. soybean oil prices [10][12] - Argentina's reduction of export withholding tax on soybeans and their by - products may stimulate exports. The high premium of Brazilian soybeans and the continued levy of tariffs on U.S. soybeans in China increase the cost of imported soybeans in China and support the soybean oil price [12] - As of July 25, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China decreased slightly compared with the previous week and the same period last year. With the arrival of August, the seasonal inventory inflection point is coming, which strongly supports the soybean oil price [15] 3.2.2. Loose Supply - Demand Pattern of Palm Oil - In June, Malaysian palm oil continued to accumulate inventory, and the export data in July were not ideal. It is expected that the pattern of high inventory and high production will continue in the third quarter, and the supply - demand pattern will become looser [16] - Indonesia's B40 plan is being implemented as scheduled, and the new industrial consumption demand of palm oil is expected to be strong, which supports the price. However, overall, the upward momentum of palm oil is weak [17][23][24] 3.2.3. Rapeseed Oil Continues the Shock Pattern - The new rapeseed production in Canada is expected to decrease, and the export demand is strong, so the ICE rapeseed has been running strongly recently [18][20] - The improvement of China - Australia trade relations may lead to an increase in the import of Australian rapeseed, which is negative for the domestic rapeseed market [20] - The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has not concluded, and the trend of reducing rapeseed import and increasing rapeseed oil import is expected to continue. The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal oil mills has increased slightly, but the de - stocking process is expected to continue, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue the wide - range shock pattern [22] 3.3. Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Due to the tight supply expectation of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter and the increase in import costs, there is an upward space for soybean oil [2][3][23] - The pattern of high inventory and high production of palm oil is difficult to change, and it lacks upward momentum [3][16][24] - Rapeseed oil is expected to continue the wide - range shock pattern due to the current weak supply and demand situation [3][20][24]