Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The USDA monthly report on soybeans is slightly bullish, with a small expected decrease in the new US soybean crop production in the 25/26 season, stable export and domestic consumption estimates. However, in the short - term, both US and domestic soybean supplies are expected to be large, and the prices of US soybeans and soybean meal are likely to be range - bound. [2][5] - For oils, the mid - term has downward pressure due to the downward movement of the crude oil center and the recovery of palm oil production. But the upcoming release of new RVO rules in the US may boost the sentiment of the oil sector in the short - term. [12] - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. In the domestic market, the current production and sales situation is good, but as the price of the outer market falls and the import profit window re - opens, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to weaken. [13][14] - The substantial progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks has boosted the short - term cotton price. The domestic cotton spinning industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. [16][17] - The supply pressure of eggs is relatively large, and the mid - term strategy is to sell on rallies before the low price significantly forces the culling of old chickens. [21] - For live pigs, the short - term spot price fluctuates little, and the futures price has limited downward space in the discount pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term sentiment. [23] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal Important Information - Overnight US soybeans closed higher due to the easing sentiment of the trade war. The USDA monthly report estimates a small decrease in the new US soybean crop production in the 25/26 season, flat crush volume, a small decline in exports, and a small reduction in inventory year - on - year. [2] - The US soybean planting progress has reached 48% as of last week, and the southern US soybean producing areas will have more rainfall in the next two weeks, with sporadic rainfall in the central region, so the planting progress is expected to be normal. [3] - The Brazilian farmers' soybean sales progress is close to 60%, and the selling pressure may gradually decrease. The Brazilian soybean premium has dropped again under the current Sino - US easing situation. [3] - According to MYSTEEL estimates, the expected soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively. The oil mills are expected to crush 1.9085 million tons of soybeans this week, compared with 1.846 million tons last week. There is a strong trend of inventory accumulation for soybean meal and soybeans in the next three months in China. [2] Trading Strategy - The current cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Considering the low valuation of US soybeans and soybean meal, there is some room for rebound due to possible weather, trade easing, and US biodiesel policy expectations. In the short - term, they are expected to be range - bound, and further upward breakthrough of US soybeans requires additional stimuli such as biodiesel and production. [5] Oils Important Information - ITS and AMSPEC estimate that the exports of Malaysian palm oil increased by about 20% - 50% in the first 10 days of April, 13.5% - 17% in the first 15 days, 11.9% in the first 20 days, 14.75% in the first 25 days, and 3.6% - 5.1% in the first 30 days. The high - frequency data from SPPOMA shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 3.97% in the first 15 days of April and 9.11% in the first 20 days. UOB and MPOA estimate an increase of more than 16% in the first 20 days and 17.03% in the first 30 days. [6] - The SPPOMA data shows that from May 1 - 5, 2025, the single - yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 61.58%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.59%, and the production increased by 60.17%. The ITS data shows that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from May 1 - 10 was 293,991 tons, a 9% decrease compared with the same period last month. [6] - The industry association in the US soybean oil sector requests a significant increase in RVO, which is beneficial to the demand for US soybean oil and boosts its valuation. The domestic spot basis is fluctuating. [11] Trading Strategy - The mid - term of oils has downward pressure due to the downward movement of the crude oil center and the obvious recovery of palm oil production. But the upcoming release of new RVO rules in the US may boost the sentiment of the oil sector in the short - term, so it may be range - bound or slightly bullish. [12] Sugar Important Information - On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded slightly. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar September contract was 5,885 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase from the previous trading day. The spot prices of sugar in various regions also increased. [13] - In April, the single - month sugar sales in Guangxi were 657,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8,800 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 63.96%, a year - on - year increase of 6.03 percentage points; the industrial inventory was 2.3297 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 270,700 tons. In Yunnan, the single - month sugar sales in April were 280,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 90,900 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 55.71%, a year - on - year increase of 9.18 percentage points; the industrial inventory was 1.047 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34,700 tons. [13] Trading Strategy - The large - scale delivery of the May raw sugar contract at a relatively low price and the start of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil have alleviated the supply shortage. The price of raw sugar may reach a new low in the second and third quarters. In the domestic market, the current production and sales situation is good, but as the outer - market price falls and the import profit window re - opens, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to weaken. [14] Cotton Important Information - On Monday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded significantly. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton September contract was 13,240 yuan/ton, a 2.24% increase from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton also increased. [16] - The substantial progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks has led to a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels, with the US canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and China canceling 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US has suspended the implementation of 24% "reciprocal tariffs", and China has also suspended the implementation of 24% counter - tariffs. [16] Trading Strategy - From a macro perspective, the progress in Sino - US talks has boosted the short - term cotton price. The domestic cotton spinning industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. [17] Eggs Spot Information - Most egg prices in the country rose yesterday, with a few remaining stable. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.17 yuan/jin. The supply increase is limited, the downstream digestion has improved, and most traders are more confident about the future market. It is expected that egg prices will mostly rise today, with a few remaining stable. [20] Trading Strategy - After the festival, the inventory reduction was less than expected, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The mid - term strategy is to sell on rallies before the low price significantly forces the culling of old chickens. [21] Live Pigs Spot Information - The domestic live pig prices were mainly stable yesterday, with some areas slightly weaker. The average price in Henan remained flat at 15.11 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan dropped by 0.1 yuan to 14.57 yuan/kg. The sales of live pigs are relatively slow, and it is difficult to raise prices, but the upstream is also reluctant to accept price cuts, and it is difficult for the slaughter end to force prices down. It is expected that live pig prices will be mainly stable today, with a few slightly decreasing. [22] Trading Strategy - The short - term spot price of live pigs fluctuates little, and the futures price has limited downward space in the discount pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies caused by short - term sentiment such as hoarding, secondary fattening, and stockpiling. [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions and trading strategies of various agricultural products, including soybeans/meal, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and hogs. The overall market shows different trends and characteristics, with short - term fluctuations and medium - term potential risks and opportunities [3][5][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - **Market Conditions**: Last Friday, US soybeans closed slightly higher due to the easing of the trade war. Domestic soybean meal prices fell over the weekend due to increased开机率. MYSTEEL estimates that soybean arrivals in May, June, and July will be 9.1975 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.5 million tons respectively. The US soybean growing area is expected to have normal planting progress, and the Brazilian soybean farmer sales progress is close to 60%. The USDA 25/26 new - crop report on Monday evening may bring some pressure to the beans [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. The upcoming US soybean USDA monthly report may be bearish, but there may be an opportunity for the report to exhaust the bearish factors. Considering the low valuation, there may be a rebound space after the report. It is expected that US soybeans and domestic soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term [5]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: Malaysian palm oil exports are affected by US tariffs, and production increases, with high - frequency data indicating significant inventory accumulation in April. The US soybean oil industry association's request to significantly increase RVO will boost US soybean oil demand and valuation. Domestic spot basis fluctuates [7][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The downward movement of the crude oil center will suppress the valuation of oils. With the obvious recovery of palm oil production, there is a medium - term downward pressure on oils. However, the upcoming US RVO rule may boost the sentiment of the oils sector, resulting in short - term fluctuations or a slightly bullish trend [10]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the September contract was 5,839 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day. According to data from Guangxi and Yunnan sugar industry associations, the sugar sales and inventory situations in April showed different trends in the two regions [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The large - volume delivery of the May raw sugar contract at a relatively low price and the start of the new crushing season in southern Brazil have eased the supply shortage. The raw sugar price may hit a new low in the second and third quarters. In China, due to reduced imports, the domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a greater possibility of a weakening price in the future as the import profit window re - opens [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the September contract was 12,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. According to USDA data, US cotton export sales and shipments showed different trends in the week from April 24 to May 1. The USDA will release the monthly crop supply and demand report on May 12 [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic cotton textile industry's consumption peak season has ended, and the downstream开机率 has declined. However, due to low imports, cotton inventory continues to decline slightly. It is expected that the cotton price will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation process and domestic inventory changes in the off - season [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable with some local small increases. Newly - laid eggs are increasing, and most regions face supply pressure, while demand is mainly stable. There is some bottom - fishing behavior after the price drops to a low level [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the festival, the inventory reduction was less than expected, and the supply pressure is large. The egg futures and spot prices have fallen significantly. The spot price decline has slowed down, and there is a local small - scale rebound, but the sustainability remains to be observed. In the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rebound remains unchanged before the low price forces the large - scale culling of old hens [19]. Hogs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic hog prices were mainly stable with some local small - scale increases or decreases. The demand side is stable, providing limited support for hog prices, while the supply is abundant [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term spot price fluctuates within a limited range, but the pressure accumulates due to the increase in hog weight. The futures market has partially reflected the bearish expectation, but the downward space is also limited due to the discount pattern. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after the futures and spot prices rebound due to emotions such as hoarding, second - fattening, and stocking, and to remain on the sidelines or engage in short - term trading before the contradiction deepens [22].