农产品早报 2025-05-13 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 联系人 从业资格号：F03114441 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 隔夜美豆收涨，贸易战缓和情绪带动，USDA 月报预估 25/26 年度美豆新作产量同比小幅减产，压榨量 持平，出口小幅下降，最终库存同比小幅去库，报告中性略利多，传两周内 EPA 将公布 RVO 方案。周 一国内豆粕现货下跌，因开机率提升，华东报 3000 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 预估 5 月大豆预计到港 919.75 万吨，6 月 1100 万吨，7 月 1050 万吨。本周油厂预计压榨大豆 190.85 万吨，上周压榨 184.6 万吨。国 内未来三个月豆粕及大豆累库趋势较强。 2、南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025 年 5 月 1-5 日马来西亚棕榈油单产增加 61.58%，出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions and trading strategies of various agricultural products, including soybeans/meal, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and hogs. The overall market shows different trends and characteristics, with short - term fluctuations and medium - term potential risks and opportunities [3][5][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - **Market Conditions**: Last Friday, US soybeans closed slightly higher due to the easing of the trade war. Domestic soybean meal prices fell over the weekend due to increased开机率. MYSTEEL estimates that soybean arrivals in May, June, and July will be 9.1975 million tons, 11 million tons, and 10.5 million tons respectively. The US soybean growing area is expected to have normal planting progress, and the Brazilian soybean farmer sales progress is close to 60%. The USDA 25/26 new - crop report on Monday evening may bring some pressure to the beans [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The cost range of far - month soybean meal such as 09 is 2,850 - 3,000 yuan/ton. The upcoming US soybean USDA monthly report may be bearish, but there may be an opportunity for the report to exhaust the bearish factors. Considering the low valuation, there may be a rebound space after the report. It is expected that US soybeans and domestic soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term [5]. Oils - **Market Conditions**: Malaysian palm oil exports are affected by US tariffs, and production increases, with high - frequency data indicating significant inventory accumulation in April. The US soybean oil industry association's request to significantly increase RVO will boost US soybean oil demand and valuation. Domestic spot basis fluctuates [7][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The downward movement of the crude oil center will suppress the valuation of oils. With the obvious recovery of palm oil production, there is a medium - term downward pressure on oils. However, the upcoming US RVO rule may boost the sentiment of the oils sector, resulting in short - term fluctuations or a slightly bullish trend [10]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the September contract was 5,839 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 0.45% from the previous trading day. According to data from Guangxi and Yunnan sugar industry associations, the sugar sales and inventory situations in April showed different trends in the two regions [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: The large - volume delivery of the May raw sugar contract at a relatively low price and the start of the new crushing season in southern Brazil have eased the supply shortage. The raw sugar price may hit a new low in the second and third quarters. In China, due to reduced imports, the domestic sugar price can maintain a high - level shock for now, but there is a greater possibility of a weakening price in the future as the import profit window re - opens [12]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: On Friday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the September contract was 12,950 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. According to USDA data, US cotton export sales and shipments showed different trends in the week from April 24 to May 1. The USDA will release the monthly crop supply and demand report on May 12 [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The domestic cotton textile industry's consumption peak season has ended, and the downstream开机率 has declined. However, due to low imports, cotton inventory continues to decline slightly. It is expected that the cotton price will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation process and domestic inventory changes in the off - season [15]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic egg prices were mainly stable with some local small increases. Newly - laid eggs are increasing, and most regions face supply pressure, while demand is mainly stable. There is some bottom - fishing behavior after the price drops to a low level [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the festival, the inventory reduction was less than expected, and the supply pressure is large. The egg futures and spot prices have fallen significantly. The spot price decline has slowed down, and there is a local small - scale rebound, but the sustainability remains to be observed. In the medium term, the strategy of short - selling on rebound remains unchanged before the low price forces the large - scale culling of old hens [19]. Hogs - **Market Conditions**: Over the weekend, domestic hog prices were mainly stable with some local small - scale increases or decreases. The demand side is stable, providing limited support for hog prices, while the supply is abundant [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term spot price fluctuates within a limited range, but the pressure accumulates due to the increase in hog weight. The futures market has partially reflected the bearish expectation, but the downward space is also limited due to the discount pattern. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after the futures and spot prices rebound due to emotions such as hoarding, second - fattening, and stocking, and to remain on the sidelines or engage in short - term trading before the contradiction deepens [22].