期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 25 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：多头排列震荡上行 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：资金面延续偏松 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应整体宽松 | 盘面持续承压 7 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价继续上涨 | 国内糖价跟随 7 | | 油脂板块：油脂技术性反弹 9 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：现货稳定，盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 生猪：供应仍有压力 | 现货整体震荡 11 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面偏弱震荡 11 | | | 鸡蛋：需求表现一般 | 蛋价有所回落 12 | | 苹果：需求表现一般 | 果价稳定为主 13 | | 棉花-棉纱：新棉销售较好 | 棉价震荡偏强 14 | | 钢材：补库预期有待兑现，钢价维持区间震荡 15 | | --- | | 双焦：驱动不明显，震荡运行 15 | | 铁矿：市场预期反复，矿价偏弱运行 16 | | 铁合金：成本支撑叠加反内卷预期，短期跟随反弹 17 | | 金银：初请数据叠加节前获利了结，金银高位冲高回落 18 | | --- | | ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货预计震荡整理 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡回调。目前国债期货上有压力下有支撑，驱动力量 不强，维持震荡整理。一方面，内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，明年货币政 策环境偏向宽松，降息降准仍可期。叠加目前市场利率隐含的降息预 期较弱，国债期货具有较强支撑。另一方面，短期内宏观经济数据具 有较强韧性，短期内全面降息的紧迫性不强，叠加近期内外环境的不 确定性扰动较少，国债期货缺乏上行驱动。总的来说，短期内国债期货 以震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接 ...

| 证券分析师：陈笑楠 | 证券分析师：季家辉 | 证券分析师：李智能 | 证券分析师：赵婧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-60375421 | 021-61761056 | 0755-22940456 | 0755-22940745 | | chenxiaonan@guosen.com.cn | jijiahui@guosen.com.cn | lizn@guosen.com.cn | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | | S0980524080001 | S0980522010002 | S0980516060001 | S0980513080004 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年12月18日 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月19日 资金观察，货币瞭望 跨年资金需求季节性抬升，预计12月市场利率上行 固定收益 · 专题研究 2025年第十二期 摘要 Ø海外货币市场指标跟踪：美联储降息25BP符合预期，美债短期利率下行； 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø国内货币市场指标跟踪——价：11月银行间和交易所回购利 ...

2025年12月18日 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月19日 资金观察，货币瞭望 跨年资金需求季节性抬升，预计12月市场利率上行 固定收益 · 专题研究 2025年第十二期 | 证券分析师：陈笑楠 | 证券分析师：季家辉 | 证券分析师：李智能 | 证券分析师：赵婧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 021-60375421 | 021-61761056 | 0755-22940456 | 0755-22940745 | | chenxiaonan@guosen.com.cn | jijiahui@guosen.com.cn | lizn@guosen.com.cn | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | | S0980524080001 | S0980522010002 | S0980516060001 | S0980513080004 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 Ø海外货币市场指标跟踪：美联储降息25BP符合预期，美债短期利率下行； 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø国内货币市场指标跟踪——价：11月银行间和交易所回购利 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.368 | 102.388 | 105.595 | 105.610 | 107.670 | 107.695 | 112.45 | 112.61 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.420 | 102.456 | 105.850 | 105.865 | 108.040 | 108.090 | 113.61 | 113.78 | | | 涨跌 | -0.052 | -0.068 | -0.255 | -0.255 | -0.370 | -0.395 | -1.160 | -1.170 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0 ...

Group 1 - The domestic market interest rates are showing a "short weak long stable" trend, with short-term funding demand weak and market rates declining [1][3] - As of November 24, the overnight, 1-week, and 2-week Shibor rates are reported at 1.316%, 1.447%, and 1.542%, respectively, showing decreases of 19.2, 6.7, and 0.8 basis points compared to November 17 [2][3] - The 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 9-month, and 1-year Shibor rates remain unchanged at 1.52%, 1.58%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.65% [2][3] Group 2 - A total of 1.676 trillion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature this week, with the central bank conducting 338.7 billion yuan in reverse repo operations [3] - There is a high probability that the central bank will roll over or exceed the 900 billion yuan in medium-term lending facility (MLF) that is maturing this week [3] - Overall, the impact of the central bank's reverse repo operations on liquidity is minimal, but the likelihood of stronger domestic market interest rates next week is high due to increased funding demand entering December [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic market interest rates are on an upward trend, influenced by strong short-term funding demand and a rebound in medium to long-term rates [1] Interest Rate Summary - As of November 17, the overnight, 1-week, 2-week, 6-month, and 9-month Shibor rates are reported at 1.508%, 1.514%, 1.55%, 1.62%, and 1.64% respectively, showing increases of 2.9, 3.6, 5.8, 0.15, and 0.1 basis points compared to November 10 [1] - The 3-month and 1-year Shibor rates remain unchanged at 1.52% and 1.65% respectively, while the 1-month Shibor rate decreased by 0.5 basis points to 1.52% [1] Liquidity and Policy Outlook - A total of 1.12 trillion yuan in reverse repos is set to mature this week, with the central bank conducting a 283 billion yuan reverse repo operation yesterday, indicating a clear stance to support liquidity and stabilize interest rate fluctuations [1] - October's domestic social financing and new RMB loan data showed average performance, with an overall decline in financing demand, suggesting a higher probability of weak interest rate market conditions [1] - Year-end policy announcements are expected to be frequent, prompting investors to closely monitor changes in the policy landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic market interest rates are showing a trend of short-term strength and long-term weakness, influenced by increased short-term funding demand and poor medium to long-term financing data [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - As of November 14, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for overnight, 1-week, 2-week, and 9-month periods were reported at 1.363%, 1.468%, 1.509%, and 1.64%, respectively, with increases of 3.6, 4.6, 3.9, and 0.1 basis points compared to November 7 [1] - The 1-month and 3-month rates were reported at 1.518% and 1.58%, showing decreases of 0.8 and 0.4 basis points, while the 6-month and 1-year rates remained unchanged at 1.62% and 1.65% [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - To stabilize market interest rates amid rising short-term funding demand, the central bank increased reverse repo operations, injecting a total of 624.2 billion yuan into the market after conducting 1.12 trillion yuan in reverse repos, with 495.8 billion yuan maturing during the same period [1] Group 3: Financing Data - In October, the domestic social financing scale was 816.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, although the growth rate has declined [1] - The new RMB loans added in October amounted to 220 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year reduction [1][2]

Group 1 - The domestic market interest rates showed a trend of short-term strength and long-term weakness last week, with short-term rates rising due to increased funding demand near the end of October, while overall financing demand growth declined, leading to a decrease in medium- and long-term rates [1] - As of October 31, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for overnight, 1-week, and 3-month periods were reported at 1.321%, 1.439%, and 1.596%, respectively, showing increases of 0.1, 2.5, and 0.2 basis points compared to October 24 [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) increased the amount of reverse repos to stabilize the peak funding demand at the end of the month, conducting a total of 20,680 billion yuan in reverse repos while 8,672 billion yuan matured, releasing 12,008 billion yuan in liquidity [1] Group 2 - For the upcoming week, domestic market interest rates are expected to show short-term weakness and long-term strength, as short-term funding demand is anticipated to decrease, leading to a potential drop in short-term rates [2] - The easing of China-U.S. trade tensions is expected to restore market confidence, and as the year-end approaches, medium- and long-term rates are likely to strengthen slightly [2]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic market interest rates are showing a strong trend due to high demand for funds at the end of the quarter, with expectations of a weaker rate next week as short-term funding needs are likely to ease [1] Interest Rate Summary - As of September 25, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) overnight rate closed at 1.472%, a decrease of 4.2 basis points from September 18 [1] - The rates for 1-week, 2-week, 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 9-month, and 1-year periods are reported at 1.584%, 1.625%, 1.564%, 1.574%, 1.635%, 1.669%, and 1.679% respectively, with increases of 5.6, 4.4, 2, 1.8, 0.4, 0.7, and 0.6 basis points compared to September 18 [1] Central Bank Operations - This week, the central bank has 18,268 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing, and has conducted 17,016 billion yuan of reverse repos in the first four working days [1] - The central bank has 300 billion yuan of Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing and has rolled over 600 billion yuan of MLF, injecting 300 billion yuan of liquidity into the market [1] Future Outlook - The probability of weaker domestic market interest rates next week is high due to the release of short-term funding needs before the holiday and the central bank's liquidity injection through MLF, which helps stabilize medium to long-term rates [1]