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波动降低后是更好的参与时机
China Post Securities· 2025-09-15 11:38
Market Performance Review - The A-share market recovered from last week's decline, with significant volatility remaining a characteristic feature. Major indices mostly rose, with the ChiNext index rebounding by 5.48% after a previous drop of 5.42%. The CSI A50 and SSE 50, which are heavily weighted by large-cap stocks, lagged behind in terms of growth. Growth style stocks showed a strong rebound, while financial stocks had smaller gains. Small-cap stocks significantly outperformed large-cap stocks, with the Ning and Mao indices both rising, the Ning combination increasing by 1.95% and the Mao index slightly up by 0.40% [3][12][29]. Industry Overview - The industry saw a general rebound but lacked a clear leading theme. Among the Shenwan first-level industries, electronics (6.15%), real estate (5.98%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (4.81%), media (4.27%), and non-ferrous metals (3.76%) led the gains. Conversely, sectors like social services (-0.28%), pharmaceuticals and biology (-0.36%), oil and petrochemicals (-0.41%), banking (-0.66%), and comprehensive (-1.43%) performed poorly. The current market is still entangled in narratives around AI infrastructure investment, potential Fed rate cuts, and anti-involution policies [4][13][29]. Future Outlook and Investment Views - The report suggests that lower volatility presents better participation opportunities. Although there was a significant single-day rise in the A-share market, it does not imply that short-term downward volatility risks have been fully alleviated. Intense bull-bear battles are common at the tail end of a trend, indicating that time is needed for consolidation before the next upward phase. Future volatility in the A-share market is expected to be more influenced by overseas factors, particularly following disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data in August, which solidifies expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. The A-share market will likely use the rate cut as a key pricing logic point after completing its adjustment [4][29]. Stock Selection Strategy - The report emphasizes that individual stock alpha logic is superior to industry beta logic, focusing on identifying "turnaround" opportunities in individual stocks. The TMT growth sectors, represented by AI applications, computing power chains, and optical modules, which have been adjusting since March, are expected to see valuation recovery opportunities. The report highlights that simply buying stocks with "earnings exceeding expectations" during the mid-year reporting season may not yield sustained relative returns. Instead, the "turnaround" strategy is deemed more effective for performance discovery during this period. The report constructs a portfolio of stocks expected to exceed earnings expectations for the mid-year report, aiming to capture excess returns from individual stock alpha in September and October [5][29].
沪指创近4年新高,机构:A股处于史上第一次“系统性慢牛”
21世纪经济报道· 2025-08-13 02:40
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with major indices reaching new highs, driven by liquidity and positive investor sentiment [2][4][5]. Market Performance - The A-share market opened strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3674.4 points, marking a new high since December 17, 2021 [2]. - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 610 billion, indicating increased market activity compared to the previous day [4]. Sector Highlights - The military industry stocks are notably active, with several stocks, including Changcheng Military Industry and Zhongbing Hongjian, rising over 5% [4]. - Computing hardware stocks continue to perform well, with companies like New Yisheng and Industrial Fulian reaching historical highs [5]. Investment Trends - Analysts suggest a shift in A-share investment logic, emphasizing the importance of individual stock performance (α logic) over broader industry trends (β logic) [6][7]. - There is a growing focus on sectors with high growth potential, such as AI, computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as stable dividend-paying sectors like brokerage and insurance [7][8]. Risk and Strategy - The high margin financing balance indicates a recovery in risk appetite, but caution is advised regarding the cyclical amplification effects of leveraged funds [8]. - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, balancing investments between technology growth and high-dividend stocks while monitoring policy signals and foreign capital movements [8].
以静待时
China Post Securities· 2025-06-30 11:22
Market Performance Review - In June, major stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.37%, and the ChiNext Index by 6.58% [13] - The financial and growth styles led the market, while the stable style declined by 0.36% [13] - The TMT and financial sectors showed significant gains, with the communication sector rising by 11.97% and non-bank financials by 8.84% [17] Market Sentiment Analysis - Since the market rally began on September 24, 2024, retail investor sentiment has played a dominant role, but this sentiment has declined since May 2025 [4][20] - The report suggests that retail sentiment will remain within a normal fluctuation range, and a rally driven by retail investors is not expected in the near term [4][20] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of waiting for the outcome of the US tariff negotiations, which will set the tone for July [5][27] - If the US does not reach an agreement with other countries, the A-share market may focus on internal fundamentals [5][27] - The recommendation is to hold dividend stocks while waiting for uncertainties to resolve, rather than making premature investments [6][28] - If the US reaches an agreement at the expense of Chinese interests, defensive dividend stocks will remain a preferred choice [6][28]