Group 1 - The core argument is that the U.S. government's use of tariffs as leverage in negotiations has significant implications for global markets, particularly in terms of volatility and the reassessment of trade dynamics [3][4][5] - The impact of tariffs has led to a milestone change in global financial markets, with U.S. Treasury yields rising to 4.6%, surpassing the growth rate of nominal GDP, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt [4][5] - The political landscape in the U.S. is increasingly polarized, with conflicts among various factions affecting the perception of U.S. global standing and potentially influencing capital flows [5][6] Group 2 - The tariffs have notably affected inflation levels and the cost of living for the middle and lower classes in the U.S., which is a critical issue for upcoming midterm elections [6][7] - Changes in supply chain structures have become evident since the initiation of the tariff war, with reports of shortages of Chinese goods in U.S. retail and price adjustments in everyday products [6][7] - The urgency for the U.S. to restart negotiations with China is driven by concerns over rare earth exports, which are crucial for the automotive industry and could significantly impact the U.S. economy [7][8] Group 3 - Internal divisions within the U.S. government and among different social classes are emerging as a fourth influential factor in trade negotiations, potentially overshadowing the previously identified key factors [9][10] - The analysis suggests that China should adopt a cautious approach in future negotiations, focusing on domestic economic stability and strategic planning rather than merely reacting to trade volume changes [10][11] - Confidence in the resilience of the Chinese economy and its manufacturing sector is emphasized, indicating a belief in the ability to navigate through tariff conflicts successfully [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Japanese Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba accepted the results of the recent House of Councillors election and apologized for it, while emphasizing the need to address pressing issues such as US tariff negotiations and rising prices to avoid political stagnation [1] - Ishiba confirmed that he has met with the leader of the Komeito party to reaffirm the intention to continue the coalition governance [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Japan's Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President, Shigeru Ishiba, accepted the results of the recent House of Councillors election and expressed his responsibility to continue governing despite the loss of the ruling coalition's majority in the upper house [1] - Ishiba confirmed that he had discussions with the leader of the Komeito party to maintain the coalition government, indicating no plans to expand the ruling alliance [1] - The article highlights the pressing issues facing the government, including upcoming U.S. tariff negotiations and rising prices, which Ishiba emphasized as reasons to avoid political stagnation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President Shigeru Ishiba accepted the results of the recent House of Councillors election and apologized for the defeat, while reaffirming his commitment to continue governing due to pressing issues such as U.S. tariff negotiations and rising prices [1] Group 1 - Ishiba held a press conference on July 21, where he expressed his acceptance of the election results and issued an apology as the LDP president [1] - He emphasized the importance of not allowing national governance to stagnate amid urgent issues, indicating his intention to remain in power [1] - Ishiba confirmed that he had earlier met with the leader of the Komeito party to discuss the continuation of their coalition governance [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently experiencing a rapid rotation phase, with increased volatility expected due to the upcoming half-year report disclosures and uncertainties surrounding US tariff negotiations [1] - Market sentiment is generally improving, supported by various policies, which may lead to a new stable state for the market [1] - The funding environment for A-shares is expected to remain stable and positive in the long term, with valuations still relatively low compared to mature overseas markets, indicating a higher investment cost-performance ratio [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown a strong oscillating trend recently, but trading volume has decreased, raising concerns about the sustainability of the rebound [2] - The market is approaching the upper limit of the oscillation range since the "9.24" market, and without clear turning points in economic fundamentals, liquidity, or policy, the index may remain in a volatile range in the short term [2] - The upcoming half-year report season is expected to reveal varying performance among sectors, with some lacking earnings support potentially facing downward pressure [1][2]

Market Performance Review - In June, major stock indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.37%, and the ChiNext Index by 6.58% [13] - The financial and growth styles led the market, while the stable style declined by 0.36% [13] - The TMT and financial sectors showed significant gains, with the communication sector rising by 11.97% and non-bank financials by 8.84% [17] Market Sentiment Analysis - Since the market rally began on September 24, 2024, retail investor sentiment has played a dominant role, but this sentiment has declined since May 2025 [4][20] - The report suggests that retail sentiment will remain within a normal fluctuation range, and a rally driven by retail investors is not expected in the near term [4][20] Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of waiting for the outcome of the US tariff negotiations, which will set the tone for July [5][27] - If the US does not reach an agreement with other countries, the A-share market may focus on internal fundamentals [5][27] - The recommendation is to hold dividend stocks while waiting for uncertainties to resolve, rather than making premature investments [6][28] - If the US reaches an agreement at the expense of Chinese interests, defensive dividend stocks will remain a preferred choice [6][28]

Group 1 - The Malaysian Trade Minister is scheduled to travel to Washington for tariff negotiations with the United States on June 18 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bosch's CEO stated that negotiations regarding U.S. tariffs have not proceeded in a manner that allows companies to reach small additional agreements on tariff issues [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Company Insights** - Bosch's leadership is actively engaged in discussions about U.S. tariffs, indicating the company's focus on navigating trade challenges [1] - **Industry Context** - The statement reflects broader industry concerns regarding tariff negotiations and their impact on business operations, highlighting the complexities companies face in the current trade environment [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view [6] Core View - The current bullish and bearish factors are domestic policy expectations and external tariff disturbances respectively. Positive policy expectations support the index under the guidance of domestic policies. The US tariff negotiations are not optimistic, with some countries taking a tough stance, while Trump shows an intention to ease tariffs on China. With overall positive news, the stock index rose generally today. Under the domestic and foreign loose expectations, the small and medium - cap stock indexes performed better and showed a unilateral upward trend. However, there are still significant external uncertainties, market sentiment is cautious, and the historical percentile of the volume - weighted average basis of stock index futures, except for IH, is at a low level below 5% [6] Market Review - Today, except for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index which closed slightly lower, the rest of the stock indexes closed higher. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 12.6749 billion yuan. In the futures index, IH declined with increasing volume, while the other varieties rose with increasing volume [4] Important Information - The LPR quotation in April remained stable: the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.10%, the same as last time; the over - 5 - year variety was reported at 3.60%, also the same as last time. - Ishiba Shigeru stated that Japan is not ready to make major concessions to the US and is not in a hurry to reach an agreement with the US [5] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change | 0.66% | - 0.08% | 1.85% | 2.27% | | Volume | 7.751 | 4.2261 | 8.7317 | 22.2169 | | Volume change compared to previous period | - 1.855 | - 0.712 | - 1.0559 | - 2.5927 | | Open interest | 247448 | 81204 | 204265 | 317103 | | Open interest change compared to previous period | 532 | 1637 | 1584 | 819 | [7] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | | Name | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.45 | | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.27 | | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 4.99 | | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 104.1405 | | | Trading volume change compared to previous period (billion yuan) | 12.6749 | [8]