刘元春：什么在左右美国关税谈判，中国如何取得战略先机？ 经济发展 ★★★★★ ），じた六以木止山Jヒ示。 ハハ四 绕汇率、公共安全、财政政策、产业 政策以及政府改革等方面的不确定 性，可能会更具冲击力。 要深入理解这一问题，需要从以 下三个方面展开思考：一是理清美国 将关税作为筹码进行相关谈判的基本 模式;二是深入把握"MAGA主义"在 未来几年的执政逻辑、政策出台顺序 及其背后的基本原则;三是要理解与 美国展开博弈的不同层级主体的反应 机制,以及全球经济体系正在发生的 结构性、革命性变化的本质。若无法 从上述三个维度形成清晰认识,将难 以对未来发展进行有效判断,目前市 场面临的不确定性可能在特朗普政策 节奏的推动下进一步加剧。 三大关键因素直接决定了美国关税谈 ポ 过去五个月,特朗普政府多次将 关税作为筹码进行要挟和打压,对全 球市场产生了一系列冲击，超出了传 统认知范畴,但其中仍有三个可以把 握的关键因素。 第一，关税冲击对全球形势的影 响具有里程碑意义,其中最为重要的 是,全球金融市场的震荡远超预期。 自4月2日(即"解放日") 以来，尽管从 绝对数值上看,全球金融市场已开始 有所填补前期的跌幅，但每一 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Japanese Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba accepted the results of the recent House of Councillors election and apologized for it, while emphasizing the need to address pressing issues such as US tariff negotiations and rising prices to avoid political stagnation [1] - Ishiba confirmed that he has met with the leader of the Komeito party to reaffirm the intention to continue the coalition governance [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Japan's Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President, Shigeru Ishiba, accepted the results of the recent House of Councillors election and expressed his responsibility to continue governing despite the loss of the ruling coalition's majority in the upper house [1] - Ishiba confirmed that he had discussions with the leader of the Komeito party to maintain the coalition government, indicating no plans to expand the ruling alliance [1] - The article highlights the pressing issues facing the government, including upcoming U.S. tariff negotiations and rising prices, which Ishiba emphasized as reasons to avoid political stagnation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President Shigeru Ishiba accepted the results of the recent House of Councillors election and apologized for the defeat, while reaffirming his commitment to continue governing due to pressing issues such as U.S. tariff negotiations and rising prices [1] Group 1 - Ishiba held a press conference on July 21, where he expressed his acceptance of the election results and issued an apology as the LDP president [1] - He emphasized the importance of not allowing national governance to stagnate amid urgent issues, indicating his intention to remain in power [1] - Ishiba confirmed that he had earlier met with the leader of the Komeito party to discuss the continuation of their coalition governance [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market is currently experiencing a rapid rotation phase, with increased volatility expected due to the upcoming half-year report disclosures and uncertainties surrounding US tariff negotiations [1] - Market sentiment is generally improving, supported by various policies, which may lead to a new stable state for the market [1] - The funding environment for A-shares is expected to remain stable and positive in the long term, with valuations still relatively low compared to mature overseas markets, indicating a higher investment cost-performance ratio [1] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown a strong oscillating trend recently, but trading volume has decreased, raising concerns about the sustainability of the rebound [2] - The market is approaching the upper limit of the oscillation range since the "9.24" market, and without clear turning points in economic fundamentals, liquidity, or policy, the index may remain in a volatile range in the short term [2] - The upcoming half-year report season is expected to reveal varying performance among sectors, with some lacking earnings support potentially facing downward pressure [1][2]

发布时间：2025-06-30 大盘指数 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 2000 3000 4000 上证指数 深证成指 1000 2000 3000 5000 6000 7000 8000 中小100 创业板指 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子崟 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email:huangziyin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《震荡仍是主旋律，等待内部政策窗口 期》 - 2025.06.16 策略观点 以静待时 ⚫ 投资要点 A 股自去年 9.24 行情开启之后，一大特征是散户情绪对市场一 度有着主导作用，这一点在散户情绪指数和万得全 A 在 9.24 至今年 4 月初的强耦合关系中得以体现。但在进入 5 月之后，散户情绪持续 走低，万得全 A 指数震荡攀升，二者已经不再紧密趋同。如果将 6.24 看作是 9.24 的重复，那么首先要回答的问题就是散户情绪能否再次 走向亢奋？ 自 2022 年以来 A 股散户情绪亢奋均需要重大的政策或产业事件 作为刺激，从未像 2020-2021 年间那样出现过指数上涨和散户情绪亢 ...

智通财经6月11日电，马来西亚贸易部长将于6月18日前往华盛顿进行美国关税谈判。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bosch's CEO stated that negotiations regarding U.S. tariffs have not proceeded in a manner that allows companies to reach small additional agreements on tariff issues [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Company Insights** - Bosch's leadership is actively engaged in discussions about U.S. tariffs, indicating the company's focus on navigating trade challenges [1] - **Industry Context** - The statement reflects broader industry concerns regarding tariff negotiations and their impact on business operations, highlighting the complexities companies face in the current trade environment [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view [6] Core View - The current bullish and bearish factors are domestic policy expectations and external tariff disturbances respectively. Positive policy expectations support the index under the guidance of domestic policies. The US tariff negotiations are not optimistic, with some countries taking a tough stance, while Trump shows an intention to ease tariffs on China. With overall positive news, the stock index rose generally today. Under the domestic and foreign loose expectations, the small and medium - cap stock indexes performed better and showed a unilateral upward trend. However, there are still significant external uncertainties, market sentiment is cautious, and the historical percentile of the volume - weighted average basis of stock index futures, except for IH, is at a low level below 5% [6] Market Review - Today, except for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index which closed slightly lower, the rest of the stock indexes closed higher. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 12.6749 billion yuan. In the futures index, IH declined with increasing volume, while the other varieties rose with increasing volume [4] Important Information - The LPR quotation in April remained stable: the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.10%, the same as last time; the over - 5 - year variety was reported at 3.60%, also the same as last time. - Ishiba Shigeru stated that Japan is not ready to make major concessions to the US and is not in a hurry to reach an agreement with the US [5] Strategy Recommendation - Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change | 0.66% | - 0.08% | 1.85% | 2.27% | | Volume | 7.751 | 4.2261 | 8.7317 | 22.2169 | | Volume change compared to previous period | - 1.855 | - 0.712 | - 1.0559 | - 2.5927 | | Open interest | 247448 | 81204 | 204265 | 317103 | | Open interest change compared to previous period | 532 | 1637 | 1584 | 819 | [7] Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market Observation | | Name | Value | | --- | --- | --- | | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.45 | | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 1.27 | | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 4.99 | | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 104.1405 | | | Trading volume change compared to previous period (billion yuan) | 12.6749 | [8]