Core Viewpoint - Apple is shifting its iPhone supply chain to India to mitigate the impact of US tariffs on Chinese imports, expecting a $900 million cost due to tariffs in the current quarter [3][4][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Apple reported a revenue of $95.4 billion and a profit of $24.8 billion for the recently ended quarter, primarily driven by iPhone sales [9]. - The company experienced a 3% decline in revenue from China, despite expectations for growth due to government subsidies aimed at stimulating demand [10]. Group 2: Supply Chain Adjustments - Tim Cook indicated that a majority of iPhones sold in the US will originate from India, as Apple seeks to reduce its exposure to future tariff risks [4][8]. - Production of iPads, Macs, Apple Watches, and AirPods for the US market is expected to shift to Vietnam, while China will remain the primary manufacturing location for products sold outside the US [8]. Group 3: Tariff Impact - The estimated impact of US tariffs on Apple is projected to add $900 million to costs, although the initial effects were described as "limited" [4][5]. - High-end tech goods, including smartphones, received temporary exemptions from tariffs, but not all components used in Apple devices are exempt, leading to increased costs [6]. Group 4: Strategic Insights - Apple has been building inventory ahead of tariff implementations, indicating proactive measures to manage supply chain disruptions [7]. - Analysts express concerns regarding the execution timeline, capacity limitations, and potential cost increases associated with the shift in manufacturing to India [11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese economy is facing simultaneous challenges from a declining property sector and escalating US-China trade tensions, which are expected to weaken the property market further, particularly in tier-one cities [1][2] - The Emerging Industries PMI (EPMI) has significantly dropped, indicating a bleak outlook for growth post-Q1, with expectations of a decline in the official manufacturing PMI [2] - Local governments' land sales revenues have deteriorated, reflecting ongoing fiscal challenges [3][4] Summary by Sections Economic Overview - New home sales in major cities are declining at a double-digit rate, with no signs of stabilization in the housing sector [1] - The EPMI fell by 10.2 percentage points to 49.4 in April, indicating a contraction in emerging industries [2] Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - On-budget fiscal revenue growth improved slightly to 0.3% year-on-year in March, while tax revenue growth showed signs of recovery [3] - Local governments' land sales revenues worsened to -16.3% year-on-year in March, indicating ongoing fiscal stress [4] - On-budget fiscal expenditure growth accelerated to 5.7% year-on-year in March, driven by increased government bond issuance [5] Property Market Dynamics - Growth in property-related tax revenues improved to -0.1% year-on-year in March, but local governments' land sales revenues continued to decline [4] - New home sales volume in major cities showed a modest improvement, with tier-one cities experiencing a decline of -10.1% year-on-year [11] Trade and Shipping - Container throughput at major ports increased by 10.3% year-on-year, while cargo throughput rose by 5.1% year-on-year [11] - The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) increased by 1.4% from the end of March, indicating a mixed trend in shipping costs [11]

Global Markets Strategy 21 Apr 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China/HK Equity Strategy Dashboard | Wendy Liu AC | | --- | | (852) 2800 1087 | | wendy.m.liu@jpmorgan.com | | J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/J.P. Morgan | | B ...