21世纪经济报道记者季媛媛 从2024年末至2025年上半年，医药行业，尤其是生物医药Biotech公司，经历了一轮显著的行情上涨。 这一趋势得到了全球医药市场规模增长和中国医药市场强劲表现的支持。无论是BD业务的迅猛增长、 科创板的再度开放，还是港股二级市场的股价表现，都清晰地显示出该行业正逐步进入估值恢复阶段， 其临床价值也逐渐获得大型跨国药企的认可。 这是否意味着医药产业周期调整已过，行业已迎"暖春"？对此，高特佳投资执行合伙人王海姣在由弗若 斯特沙利文主办的2025年第十九届沙利文全球增长、科创与领导力峰会暨第四届新投资大会上表示，尽 管今年部分生物医药企业股价涨幅较大，但遗憾的是，由于投资收益与投资时点密切相关，即便优质企 业，投资价格也会对回报产生影响，这一现状导致众多投资人仍未能收回成本。 在评估项目优劣时，王海姣提到，首先，从临床需求出发，真正解决临床问题的企业才是优质企业。无 论市场处于泡沫期还是寒冬期，企业的估值会有显著差异，但真正的好企业能够凭借解决临床需求的能 力穿越市场寒冬。在过去两三年间，众多biotech公司纷纷倒闭，遗憾地未能顺利穿越市场周期的挑战： 其次，当前二级市场呈现繁荣 ...

Group 1 - The focus of US funds on Chinese innovative drugs has not diminished, but the approach has shifted to overseas asset placement to reduce compliance risks and enhance capital efficiency [1][5] - The recent surge in Hong Kong's 18A projects is driven by high-frequency BD collaborations, NewCo models, and mergers and acquisitions, fundamentally changing the underlying logic of the innovative drug sector [1][3] - In 2024, the number of innovative drugs under development in China is projected to reach 3,575, surpassing the United States and establishing China as a global leader in this area [3] Group 2 - The NewCo model has gained traction, particularly in oncology and autoimmune disease treatment, allowing Chinese companies to collaborate with US funds to establish new entities for global development [2][4] - The BD and NewCo strategies are key drivers of the innovative drug market, with significant overseas licensing deals becoming commonplace, exceeding $1 billion [3][4] - The NewCo model allows Chinese pharmaceutical companies to retain equity while receiving upfront payments, milestones, and revenue sharing, thus mitigating direct investment risks for US funds [4][5] Group 3 - The investment landscape for US funds in China is evolving, with a focus on incubating NewCo and injecting assets into these entities to avoid direct investment risks associated with Chinese companies [5][6] - Despite a decrease in direct investments by US funds in Chinese biotech, the understanding of the market has deepened, leading to a strategic shift towards acquiring Chinese assets and forming US-based companies [6][7] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global is accelerating, with an emphasis on having clear "going out" strategies to attract international partnerships and acquisitions [8][9] Group 4 - The current focus of capital is on large products and indications, particularly in oncology and autoimmune diseases, with a notable trend towards metabolic drugs driven by successful GLP-1 products from multinational companies [9][10] - The innovative drug market in China is increasingly recognized for its potential to be acquired by global pharmaceutical companies, moving away from a reliance on domestic sales and channels [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The current surge in China's innovative drug sector is supported by long-term industry trends and has entered a harvest phase after over a decade of policy and capital market support [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The innovative drug market is experiencing a significant uptrend, driven by favorable industry cycles and business development (BD) transactions [2]. - Since the reform of the drug review system in 2014, China's innovative drug sector has become the second-largest source of innovative drugs globally, following the U.S. [3][7]. - The upcoming expiration of patents for major U.S. pharmaceutical products will create demand for new drugs, positioning Chinese innovative drugs as attractive options due to their cost-effectiveness and advanced development timelines [3][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The innovative drug sector has shown the highest growth among various sub-sectors in the pharmaceutical industry, with continuous revenue growth over several quarters [3]. - The improvement in macro liquidity has significantly boosted the valuation of Hong Kong-listed innovative drug companies, which had previously been undervalued [3][4]. Group 3: Competitive Position - China has cultivated a large pool of biopharmaceutical talent, ranking high globally in the number of graduates in related fields, which enhances its competitive edge in the industry [8]. - The large population and extensive healthcare infrastructure in China allow for rapid clinical trials, reducing clinical costs significantly compared to the U.S. [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The innovative drug sector is transitioning from quantitative to qualitative growth, with expectations of significant BD transactions and potential mergers and acquisitions in the coming years [13]. - The next 5-10 years are anticipated to be a period of explosive growth for Chinese innovative drugs, both domestically and internationally, with several companies expected to emerge as globally competitive players [13]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - For individual investors, focusing on high-growth sub-sectors and long-term holding strategies is recommended to capitalize on industry trends [14][15]. - Professional investors should concentrate on specific stocks, particularly during the research and development phase, and monitor BD transactions for potential investment opportunities [14].