Interview with Gracy Chen: The biggest shift in crypto is pricing power moving to Wall Street and institutions. https://t.co/mtXiLAtfJU ...

Investment Recommendation - Anthropic 的投资价值优于 OpenAI，前者估值 100，后者估值 300 [1] - Anthropic 具有短期动能优势 [1] - Anthropic 的股权结构清晰，不存在非营利性问题 [1] Business Model & Pricing Power - Anthropic 的商业模式运作良好 [1] - Anthropic 开始展现定价权 [1] - 定价权对于大规模无盈利模型实现收敛至关重要 [1] Deal Assessment - 该交易非常紧凑，值得大力支持 [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **US Industrial Orders** in Q2 2025, highlighting trends and expectations for the second half of the year [1][3]. Core Insights - **Q2 Margin Expectations**: Broad margin beats are anticipated for Q2, with a focus on 2H volumes as a key performance indicator (KPI) for the earnings season. Companies that can sustain pricing power amidst cost pressures will be closely monitored [3]. - **Order Rate Changes**: The sequential change in Q2 2025 order rates indicates potential for 2H volumes and pricing power. Notable leaders in order improvements include: - **Commercial Aircraft**: +70% - **Oil & Gas + Mining Machinery**: +5% - **Industrial Machinery**: +5% - **Construction Machinery**: +3% - **Lighting Equipment**: +2% - **HVAC**: +2% - Laggards include: - **Turbines + Power Transmission Equipment**: -7% - **Household Appliances**: -4% - **Measuring & Control**: -2% - **Defense**: No specific percentage mentioned [3]. Competitive Landscape - **Tariff Impacts**: The "Trump 2.0" tariffs are seen as providing competitive advantages for US industrials, particularly those compliant with USMCA, as they are less reliant on EU and Asian imports. This is expected to positively influence Q2 order rates [8]. - **Import Trends**: Mexico's imports increased by 6% year-over-year, while imports from China dropped significantly by 41% [8]. Company-Specific Insights - **Preferred Companies**: Companies with strong demand trends and excess backlog are favored, including: - **Rockwell Automation (ROK)** - **Eaton Corporation (ETN)** - **Johnson Controls (JCI)** - **Trane Technologies (TT)** - **Acuity Brands (AYI)** [7]. - **Valuation Methodology**: - **Acuity Brands (AYI)**: Price target based on ~17x blended FY26/FY27 EPS of $20.98, representing a ~20% discount to the S&P 500 [15]. - **Eaton Corporation (ETN)**: Price target of ~26.0x blended '26/'27 EPS of $14.44, justified by sustained high single-digit organic growth [16]. - **Johnson Controls (JCI)**: Price target of ~$115 based on ~23.5x blended F'26/'27 EPS of $4.91, supported by portfolio transformation [17]. - **Rockwell Automation (ROK)**: Price target of ~$350 based on ~28.0x blended FY'26/'27 EPS of $12.62, benefiting from secular tailwinds [22]. - **Trane Technologies (TT)**: Price target of ~$445 based on ~28.5x blended '26/'27 EPS of $15.50, reflecting strong demand in Data Center & Advanced Manufacturing [23]. Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: Include potential inability to eliminate stranded costs post-portfolio transformation, erosion of pricing power due to supply chain normalization, and a slowdown in construction activity due to higher interest rates [19][20]. - **Upside Opportunities**: Order acceleration from mega-projects, continued margin expansion, and sustained demand in traditional commercial construction sectors [20][21]. Conclusion - The US industrial sector is showing signs of resilience with varying order trends across different categories. Companies with strong backlogs and pricing power are positioned favorably for the second half of 2025, while external factors such as tariffs and import dynamics play a crucial role in shaping the competitive landscape [3][8].

AMD's AI Revenue Outlook - AMD's AI revenue outlook has become more constructive in recent months compared to the beginning of the year [2] - Feedback on the MI355 chip is more positive, and pricing is higher than previously expected, with hyperscalers showing interest [3] - The company anticipates over 8 billion USD in AI revenue, significantly higher than the consensus of around 6 billion USD [4] Pricing Power in the Chip Sector - Nvidia has led the pricing power strategy for the first two years of the AI theme, but pricing power is extending to other companies [6] - AMD is experiencing higher ASPs (Average Selling Prices) than expected for its upcoming chip [7] - Broadcom is also expected to benefit from increased pricing power and ASP increases for their chips [7] AMD's Non-AI Business Resilience - AMD is experiencing growth in EVs (Electric Vehicles) and data center demand, although data center growth is largely attributed to AI chips [8] - AMD gained share in the client business within the overall PC business, with ASPs increasing considerably [8][9] - Traditional core businesses such as data centers and traditional PCs are performing well despite the overall market not being strong [9][10]