戴德梁行《2025年第二季度大中华区物流地产市场回顾报告》，通过多维度数据与区域分析，呈现该季度市场供需、租金、空置率及行业动态，为市场参与 者提供参考。 从整体经济与行业景气度看，2025年第二季度中国内地物流业景气指数保持扩张态势，四月为51.1%、五月50.6%、六月50.8%，均高于50%荣枯线，显示物 流行业整体运行稳健，需求端具备支撑力。同期，制造业PMI（采购经理指数）于五月录得49.0，虽处于收缩区间，但物流地产市场受消费与电商需求带 动，仍保持相对活跃。外贸方面，五月集装箱吞吐量达560万TEU，同比微增0.6%，较2021年同期增长22%，反映跨境物流需求平稳，对港口周边物流地产 形成一定支撑。 供需层面，供应端呈现区域分化特征。2025年第二季度大中华区物流地产新增供应量达157,732平方米，部分区域如上海、广州等核心城市新增供应较为集 中，上海单季新增供应729万平方米（数据单位待进一步确认，推测为区域内重点板块贡献），而部分二三线城市新增供应相对有限。需求端，核心城市租 赁活动活跃，重点城市优质物流地产净吸纳量表现亮眼，其中3PL（第三方物流）企业为主要租赁群体，典型成交案例包括某 ...

Core Viewpoint - Prologis is preparing for an IPO in 2026 as a necessary step to address capital circulation issues, despite stable rental income from its warehouses [7][11][25]. Group 1: Company Background - Prologis, a major operator of logistics warehouses in China, manages 450 facilities across 70 markets, serving as a backbone for e-commerce and fast-moving consumer goods [7][8]. - The company was privatized in 2017 at a valuation of 16 billion Singapore dollars (approximately 79 billion RMB), marking one of the largest privatization deals in Asia [9]. Group 2: Capital Circulation Challenges - Prologis faces difficulties in capital circulation as the enthusiasm of dollar funds for investing in Chinese logistics assets has decreased, leading to tighter funding pools [12]. - The Chinese public REITs market is too small to absorb Prologis's substantial asset pool, with individual REITs only reaching tens of billions of RMB [13]. - Major shareholders, including Hillhouse and Vanke, have held their investments for eight years and are increasingly seeking liquidity through an IPO [13]. Group 3: IPO as a Necessity - The IPO has shifted from being a choice to a necessity due to the combined pressures of reduced fundraising options and shareholder exit strategies [14]. - Prologis must present a compelling narrative beyond just owning warehouses, positioning itself as a "new infrastructure platform" that includes logistics, data centers, and renewable energy initiatives [15]. Group 4: Market Timing and Competition - The Hong Kong IPO market has recently improved, providing a favorable window for Prologis to launch its IPO [16]. - Prologis faces competition from potential IPO candidates like Wanwei Logistics and other foreign investors looking to enter the Chinese market [19][21]. Group 5: Risks and Uncertainties - The company is exposed to risks such as slowing rental growth in first-tier cities, rising vacancy rates in second-tier markets, and potential skepticism from investors regarding its new narrative [22][24].

Core Points - The establishment of a new logistics hub in Kashgar, Xinjiang, has significantly improved logistics efficiency, reducing delivery times from 7-10 days to as little as 1-3 days, with some deliveries achieving same-day service [2][3][4] - Guangzhou Laplace Investment Holding Co., Ltd. has invested in the first 5G smart logistics port in southern Xinjiang, collaborating with major logistics providers like JD.com, SF Express, and China Post to enhance local e-commerce capabilities [3][4][5] - The logistics port project has a total investment of 630 million yuan, divided into three phases, with the first phase focusing on an intelligent sorting center that has already been completed and operational [4][9] Company and Industry Summary - The logistics hub addresses long-standing logistical challenges in southern Xinjiang, where geographical constraints previously hindered efficient transportation and e-commerce growth [4][6] - The introduction of advanced logistics technology has led to a 200% increase in daily throughput for JD.com in the region, transforming the local logistics landscape to match that of major cities [5][9] - The project has created over 600 direct jobs and has indirectly benefited more than a thousand individuals, contributing to local employment and economic development [6][10] - The logistics port is expected to attract more businesses and investments, with plans for further phases to enhance its capacity and capabilities, potentially establishing it as the largest commodity distribution center in southern Xinjiang [9][10] - The collaboration between Guangdong and Xinjiang has facilitated significant trade, with projections indicating over 12.4 billion yuan in transactions between the two regions in 2024, enhancing market access for local products [8][10]

Group 1 - Prologis China achieved a total revenue of 4.224 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a 10% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - The operating EBITDA reached 2.027 billion yuan, showing an increase of over 20% year-on-year [1]

Core Insights - The Southeast Asian e-commerce market is rapidly growing, with Singapore emerging as a key entry point for major platforms like TikTok Shop, Lazada, Temu, JD.com, and Taobao [1] - JD.com plans to establish a logistics Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) in Singapore, with an estimated size exceeding $1 billion, marking a significant step in its international capital strategy [3][5] Group 1: JD.com's REIT Plans - JD Property, in collaboration with Partners Group and EZA Hill Property, aims to launch a REIT in Singapore with a scale of over $12 billion (approximately 12.8 billion SGD or 71.5 billion RMB) [3] - The REIT will include high-quality logistics parks, smart warehousing bases, and industrial parks owned by JD Property in the Asia-Pacific region [3][5] - The establishment of this REIT is expected to be completed by October this year, with a potential listing on the Singapore Exchange as early as next year [3][5] Group 2: Strategic Acquisitions and Expansion - Recently, JD Property and its partners acquired four logistics assets for approximately 3.06 million SGD (about 17 million RMB) from CapitaLand [5] - The companies plan to continue expanding their footprint in Southeast Asia by acquiring more industrial and logistics assets through the REIT [7] - JD Property has invested in over 40 logistics projects across eight countries, focusing on Southeast Asia, Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East [9] Group 3: Enhanced Logistics Capabilities - JD Logistics has accelerated its logistics expansion in Southeast Asia, establishing three new self-operated overseas warehouses in Malaysia and Vietnam, and launching two direct air freight routes from China [13] - The logistics services will be upgraded to cover seven Southeast Asian countries, improving cross-border fulfillment efficiency [13] - JD Logistics aims to provide comprehensive services, including B2B/B2C warehousing, shipping, and last-mile delivery, with capabilities for next-day delivery in multiple regions [15]

Core Insights - The logistics real estate sector has experienced fluctuations in investment activities from 2017 to 2024, with a total of 29 investment events, averaging 2-3 events per year. The peak year for investments was 2021, driven by the recovery of downstream port freight activities, which increased the attractiveness of related enterprises [1][2] - In 2024, a new wave of investment emerged, focusing on port logistics, comprehensive supply chain logistics, and international logistics warehousing [1] Investment Events Summary - Investment events involve various types of enterprises, including logistics service providers, online freight platforms, logistics facility suppliers, and property management service providers. The investment rounds include equity investments, mergers and acquisitions, and Series D funding [2] - Notable financing events include: - 运百物流 received a strategic investment of 2.84 million yuan on August 23, 2024 [4] - 亚太港口 secured a strategic investment of 267 million yuan on February 22, 2024 [4] - 万纬物流 received a strategic investment of 1.15 billion yuan on October 2, 2021 [5] Financing Rounds - Strategic investments are the primary financing round in the logistics real estate sector, accounting for 30% of all investment events, followed by Series A at 17%. There is an increasing trend in Series B to D funding rounds [6] Investment Entities - Private equity (PE) and venture capital (VC) firms account for 50% of the investment entities, indicating short-term profit opportunities in the sector. Industrial companies represent 28% of the investment entities, focusing on integrated supply chain investments [7] Investment Destinations - Investment destinations are concentrated in major cities such as Shanghai (28%), Guangdong (24%), and Jiangsu and Zhejiang (12% each). These regions are attractive due to strong project operational prospects, high order volumes, and mature logistics real estate development [8][11] Fund Management Scale - Various funds are actively investing in the logistics real estate sector, including 杭州嘉锐基金, 嘉实基金, and 顺丰产业基金. These funds are attracted by the long-term value of infrastructure and the synergy effects within the industry [12] Mergers and Acquisitions - Major mergers and acquisitions in the sector reflect vertical integration, such as 时代邻里 acquiring 科箭物业 and 京东 acquiring Chinese logistics assets. These moves aim to enhance operational specialization and scale in logistics real estate [16] Overall Summary - The logistics real estate sector is characterized by strategic financing aimed at expanding business operations and seeking new growth opportunities. The industry has a significant number of large-scale funds, with a focus on technology investments, and mergers are primarily aimed at vertical integration [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics service demand remains weak due to trade disputes and economic uncertainties, leading to downward pressure on rental prices for logistics properties [1][2]. Financial Performance - SF REIT reported a 0.2% year-on-year increase in distributable income for the first half of 2025, amounting to HKD 119.5 million, while the distribution per unit decreased by 10.9% to HKD 0.1311 [1]. - The payout ratio has decreased from 100% in mid-2024 to 90% in mid-2025 [1]. Rental Agreements and Adjustments - The rental agreements for properties in Tsing Yi, Foshan, and Wuhu, which account for approximately 59% of the total leasable area, will expire in the first half of 2026, followed by the lease for the Changsha property in the second half of 2026 [1]. - The management has renewed half of the leases expiring this year, with an average rental adjustment of -9.6% [2]. - The occupancy rate is expected to decline by 1.2 percentage points to 96.1% by June 30, 2025, due to one third-party tenant not renewing their lease [2]. Market Conditions - The overall economic uncertainty in Hong Kong and geopolitical factors have slowed the development of logistics suppliers, leading to a decrease in demand for rental spaces [2]. - The overall vacancy rate in the market has risen to over 10%, the highest in decades, due to reduced demand and increased supply [2]. Future Outlook - Approximately 9 million square feet of new logistics supply is expected in the next two years, which will continue to exert pressure on rental prices [3]. - The impact of the tariff war has slowed the growth of cross-border e-commerce clients in the Greater Bay Area, affecting future expansion plans [3]. - The company plans to continue monitoring logistics real estate investment opportunities, particularly in the Greater Bay Area, while acknowledging the volatility of the market and economic environment [3].

Core Insights - The logistics real estate industry is characterized by significant regional concentration in China, with upstream supply concentrated in coastal and central regions, while the development and operation segments are primarily located in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions [5] Industry Overview - Logistics real estate serves as a platform for modern logistics facilities, where developers invest in and construct specialized logistics infrastructure based on the needs of logistics enterprises [1] - The main operational activities in logistics real estate include site selection, land acquisition, development, management, and fund operations [1] Competitive Landscape - According to Michael Porter's value chain theory, logistics real estate companies must focus on developing core competencies in strategic segments of the value chain to maintain competitive advantages [2] Company Performance - In 2024, the performance of logistics real estate companies in China shows significant divergence, with Kerry Properties reporting revenue of 19.5 billion yuan and a gross margin of 32.8%, while R&F Properties faced a loss with a revenue of 18.77 billion yuan and a gross margin of -4.7% [7] - Other companies like Joy City maintained stable performance with a revenue of 35.79 billion yuan and a gross margin of 21.8% [7] Investment Trends - Kerry Properties has been divesting logistics assets, including the sale of warehouses in Hong Kong for 4.62 billion HKD in 2022, while R&F Properties has exited the logistics real estate sector by selling its entire stake in Guangzhou Airport Logistics Park to Blackstone for a total of 5.295 billion yuan [10] - SF Holding is actively expanding its logistics footprint, planning to list REITs and investing in multiple industrial parks [10] - Other companies like Transfar Zhilian and Nanshan Holdings are also expanding their logistics networks and pursuing REIT listings [10]

Core Insights - The logistics real estate industry in China is experiencing a phase of oversupply from 2020 to 2023, with an average annual supply of over 10 million square meters across 31 major cities, but is expected to return to rational development starting in 2024 [1][2] - New opportunities are emerging in the logistics real estate sector as demand for overseas warehousing and supply chain services increases due to the export of high-quality Chinese products [2][3] Industry Trends - The logistics real estate sector is beginning to stabilize with a combination of decreasing supply and structural demand adjustments, leading to a potential bottoming out of rental levels [3] - Positive trends include an increase in potential clients, growth in leased area, and rising occupancy rates, indicating a recovery in the market [3] Company Strategies - JD Property is focusing on emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, cross-border e-commerce, and instant retail, creating comprehensive service solutions that cover the entire logistics process [3][4] - The company has established deep partnerships with leading automotive manufacturers, providing customized logistics solutions and achieving significant operational scale [3][4] Ecosystem Collaboration - JD Property integrates resources from the JD Group to offer comprehensive support to partners, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency in the supply chain [4] - The company has successfully assisted over 50 manufacturing enterprises in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and 180 in the Yangtze River Delta region to expand their domestic sales channels [4] Global Expansion - JD Property has initiated an overseas strategy, launching over 50 projects across nine countries, with a total area exceeding 1.5 million square meters, and plans to add over 1 million square meters in 2025, particularly in markets like the UK, Germany, and Mexico [5][6] - The company emphasizes localized supply chain solutions in international markets, enhancing efficiency for local partners and gaining favorable reception from local governments [6]

Core Insights - The logistics real estate industry in China has a limited number of listed companies, with most focusing on either real estate or logistics, and many involved in warehousing and light asset operations [1][4] - Companies like Jinke, Zhongchu, and others have a high degree of relevance to logistics real estate, while others like R&F and Joy City have a moderate relevance, primarily focusing on real estate development [1][4] Company Overview - Kerry Properties (00683HK): A comprehensive real estate group in Hong Kong, focusing on high-end commercial real estate development and investment, with total assets exceeding HKD 100 billion [3] - R&F Properties (02777.HK): A major residential and commercial real estate developer in China, managing over 300 property projects, currently focusing on debt restructuring and asset optimization [3] - Joy City (000031.SZ): A subsidiary of COFCO, known for urban complex operations, managing over 20 commercial projects, emphasizing young consumer experiences [3] - China Vanke (000002.SZ): A leading real estate company in China, expanding into logistics and cold chain sectors in recent years [3] - SF Holding (002352.SZ): The largest express logistics company in China, operating 84 self-owned cargo planes and focusing on smart logistics transformation [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, revenue for logistics real estate companies shows significant divergence, with leading companies like Zhongchu and SF Holding generating revenues in the hundreds of billions, while some smaller firms report revenues around tens of millions [4][5] - Most companies maintain a gross margin between 10-30%, indicating an overall improvement in industry profitability [4] Revenue and Profitability Metrics - SF Holding reported a revenue of CNY 2844.2 billion with a gross margin of 13.9% in 2024 [5] - Vanke A achieved a revenue of CNY 3431.8 billion with a gross margin of 10.2% [5] - R&F Properties reported a revenue of CNY 187.7 billion but with a negative gross margin of -4.7% [5] Regional Layout - Companies have varying regional focuses, with Kerry Properties targeting key areas like Shanghai and Beijing, while Zhongchu has established a national network with over 100 warehouses across 20 provinces [9][10] - SF Holding is developing logistics hubs in cities like Ezhou and Jiaxing, enhancing its logistics network [10] Business Development Plans - Companies like Huayuan Holdings and Zhongchu are planning to build new logistics parks, focusing on intelligent technology applications and network enhancements [15][17] - Vanke is concentrating on high-standard warehouses and cold chain logistics, while Jinke is exploring synergies between logistics and other real estate sectors [17][18]