转自：前瞻产业研究院 行业主要公司：嘉里建设(00683HK);富力地产(02777.HK);大悦城(000031.SZ);华远地产(600743.SH);金地 集团(600383.SH);中储股份(600787.SH);顺丰控股(002352.SZ)等 本文核心数据：物流地产代表企业融资规模;物流地产代表企业投资规模 企业投融资呈波动趋势 2017-2024年，物流地产共有29件投资事件，平均每年投资事件在2-3件。投资最多的年份是2021年，相 关仓储物流题材投资火热。主要是下游港口货运热度的恢复，提升了相关企业的投资吸引力。2024年投 资又掀起了一次热潮，港口物流、综合性供应链物流、国际物流仓储相关业务得到关注。 | 时间 | रहना | 花花筒介 | 地区 | 轮次 | 融资金额 | 投资方 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2022/2/10 | 岭郡中国 | 智慧物流产业园开发商 | 香港 | A轮 | 未透露 | Angelo Gordon | | 2021/11/12 | 鲸仓科技 | 智能仓储自动化整体解 | 广东省 | B+ ...

Core Viewpoint - The logistics service demand remains weak due to trade disputes and economic uncertainties, leading to downward pressure on rental prices for logistics properties [1][2]. Financial Performance - SF REIT reported a 0.2% year-on-year increase in distributable income for the first half of 2025, amounting to HKD 119.5 million, while the distribution per unit decreased by 10.9% to HKD 0.1311 [1]. - The payout ratio has decreased from 100% in mid-2024 to 90% in mid-2025 [1]. Rental Agreements and Adjustments - The rental agreements for properties in Tsing Yi, Foshan, and Wuhu, which account for approximately 59% of the total leasable area, will expire in the first half of 2026, followed by the lease for the Changsha property in the second half of 2026 [1]. - The management has renewed half of the leases expiring this year, with an average rental adjustment of -9.6% [2]. - The occupancy rate is expected to decline by 1.2 percentage points to 96.1% by June 30, 2025, due to one third-party tenant not renewing their lease [2]. Market Conditions - The overall economic uncertainty in Hong Kong and geopolitical factors have slowed the development of logistics suppliers, leading to a decrease in demand for rental spaces [2]. - The overall vacancy rate in the market has risen to over 10%, the highest in decades, due to reduced demand and increased supply [2]. Future Outlook - Approximately 9 million square feet of new logistics supply is expected in the next two years, which will continue to exert pressure on rental prices [3]. - The impact of the tariff war has slowed the growth of cross-border e-commerce clients in the Greater Bay Area, affecting future expansion plans [3]. - The company plans to continue monitoring logistics real estate investment opportunities, particularly in the Greater Bay Area, while acknowledging the volatility of the market and economic environment [3].

Core Insights - The logistics real estate industry is characterized by significant regional concentration in China, with upstream supply concentrated in coastal and central regions, while the development and operation segments are primarily located in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions [5] Industry Overview - Logistics real estate serves as a platform for modern logistics facilities, where developers invest in and construct specialized logistics infrastructure based on the needs of logistics enterprises [1] - The main operational activities in logistics real estate include site selection, land acquisition, development, management, and fund operations [1] Competitive Landscape - According to Michael Porter's value chain theory, logistics real estate companies must focus on developing core competencies in strategic segments of the value chain to maintain competitive advantages [2] Company Performance - In 2024, the performance of logistics real estate companies in China shows significant divergence, with Kerry Properties reporting revenue of 19.5 billion yuan and a gross margin of 32.8%, while R&F Properties faced a loss with a revenue of 18.77 billion yuan and a gross margin of -4.7% [7] - Other companies like Joy City maintained stable performance with a revenue of 35.79 billion yuan and a gross margin of 21.8% [7] Investment Trends - Kerry Properties has been divesting logistics assets, including the sale of warehouses in Hong Kong for 4.62 billion HKD in 2022, while R&F Properties has exited the logistics real estate sector by selling its entire stake in Guangzhou Airport Logistics Park to Blackstone for a total of 5.295 billion yuan [10] - SF Holding is actively expanding its logistics footprint, planning to list REITs and investing in multiple industrial parks [10] - Other companies like Transfar Zhilian and Nanshan Holdings are also expanding their logistics networks and pursuing REIT listings [10]

Core Insights - The logistics real estate industry in China has a limited number of listed companies, with most focusing on either real estate or logistics, and many involved in warehousing and light asset operations [1][4] - Companies like Jinke, Zhongchu, and others have a high degree of relevance to logistics real estate, while others like R&F and Joy City have a moderate relevance, primarily focusing on real estate development [1][4] Company Overview - Kerry Properties (00683HK): A comprehensive real estate group in Hong Kong, focusing on high-end commercial real estate development and investment, with total assets exceeding HKD 100 billion [3] - R&F Properties (02777.HK): A major residential and commercial real estate developer in China, managing over 300 property projects, currently focusing on debt restructuring and asset optimization [3] - Joy City (000031.SZ): A subsidiary of COFCO, known for urban complex operations, managing over 20 commercial projects, emphasizing young consumer experiences [3] - China Vanke (000002.SZ): A leading real estate company in China, expanding into logistics and cold chain sectors in recent years [3] - SF Holding (002352.SZ): The largest express logistics company in China, operating 84 self-owned cargo planes and focusing on smart logistics transformation [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, revenue for logistics real estate companies shows significant divergence, with leading companies like Zhongchu and SF Holding generating revenues in the hundreds of billions, while some smaller firms report revenues around tens of millions [4][5] - Most companies maintain a gross margin between 10-30%, indicating an overall improvement in industry profitability [4] Revenue and Profitability Metrics - SF Holding reported a revenue of CNY 2844.2 billion with a gross margin of 13.9% in 2024 [5] - Vanke A achieved a revenue of CNY 3431.8 billion with a gross margin of 10.2% [5] - R&F Properties reported a revenue of CNY 187.7 billion but with a negative gross margin of -4.7% [5] Regional Layout - Companies have varying regional focuses, with Kerry Properties targeting key areas like Shanghai and Beijing, while Zhongchu has established a national network with over 100 warehouses across 20 provinces [9][10] - SF Holding is developing logistics hubs in cities like Ezhou and Jiaxing, enhancing its logistics network [10] Business Development Plans - Companies like Huayuan Holdings and Zhongchu are planning to build new logistics parks, focusing on intelligent technology applications and network enhancements [15][17] - Vanke is concentrating on high-standard warehouses and cold chain logistics, while Jinke is exploring synergies between logistics and other real estate sectors [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" investment rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The expansion of the "Bond Connect" southbound channel will provide more overseas asset allocation opportunities for mainland non-bank financial institutions, alleviating the supply tightness of quality assets in the domestic market and promoting reasonable capital flow [1]. - The U.S. inflation data for June showed a year-on-year increase to 2.7%, slightly above expectations, while core CPI rose to 2.9%, indicating controlled inflation but potential short-term increases if tariffs are raised [2]. - The derivatives market maintains expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and December, with a cumulative reduction of 50 basis points anticipated by year-end [3]. - The report suggests that the current long-end U.S. Treasury yields are rising, reflecting market concerns about future inflation and fiscal deficits, while the expansion of the southbound bond market will enhance liquidity for Chinese dollar bonds and Hong Kong dollar bonds [4]. Summary by Sections U.S. Macroeconomics and Liquidity - The report highlights the controlled inflation environment in the U.S., with CPI expected to rise to 3.0%-3.5% in the short term if tariffs increase [2]. - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries has steepened, indicating market concerns about inflation and fiscal policy [3]. Overseas Dollar Bonds - The expansion of the "Bond Connect" southbound channel is expected to create structural opportunities for dollar bond allocations, particularly benefiting Chinese dollar bonds and Hong Kong dollar bonds [4]. Chinese Dollar Bonds - The report notes that recent rating actions by international agencies included 11 adjustments for Chinese dollar bond issuers, with three upgrades and five downgrades [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The REITs expansion business rules have been further improved, and the Dujiangyan Scenic Area REITs project was successfully bid. The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the "REITs Expansion Business Handling Guide", and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange also enabled the non - targeted expansion business function. The Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT's application status was updated to "accepted", and AVIC Fund won the bid for the Dujiangyan Scenic Area REITs project [4]. - In the primary market, 4 single - issue REITs made new progress this week, and the issuance scale decreased year - on - year. In the secondary market, the market rebounded with fluctuations this week, and the liquidity continued to rise [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Primary Market: 4 Single - Issue REITs Made New Progress - As of July 4, 2025, 10 REITs have been successfully issued this year, with a total issuance scale of 15.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 43.8%. This week, 4 single - issue public REITs made new progress, and there was no new progress in expansion [5]. - There are currently 15 single - issue REITs under application, 5 have been queried and responded, 0 have passed the review, and 1 is registered and awaiting listing. For expansion, 10 have been applied, 4 have been queried and responded, and 3 have passed the review [5]. 3.2 Secondary Market: The Market Rebounded with Fluctuations This Week, and the Liquidity Continued to Rise 3.2.1 Market Review: The CSI REITs Total Return Index Rose 0.66% - This week, the CSI REITs Total Return Index (932047.CSI) closed at 1116.42 points, up 0.66%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.88 percentage points and the CSI Dividend by 1.28 percentage points. The year - to - date increase of the CSI REITs Total Return Index is 15.35%, outperforming the CSI 300/CSI Dividend by 14.15/16.43 percentage points [5]. - By project attribute, property - type REITs rose 0.42%, and franchise - type REITs rose 1.05%. By asset type, the transportation (+1.29%), ecological environment protection (+1.08%), park (+0.83%), and energy (+0.60%) sectors performed better [5]. - Among individual bonds, 55 rose and 13 fell this week. CICC China Greentown Commercial REIT (+6.50%), E Fund Huayi Farmers' Market REIT (+5.25%), and Huaxia Nanjing Transportation Expressway REIT (+3.91%) led the gainers, while Huaxia TBEA New Energy REIT (-2.09%), Huaxia Beijing Affordable Housing REIT (-1.70%), and Guotai Junan Lingang Innovation Industrial Park REIT (-1.55%) were the biggest losers [5]. 3.2.2 Liquidity: The Ecological Environment Protection Sector Had the Highest Activity - The average daily turnover rate of CSI REITs this week was 0.62%, an increase of 3.94BP from last week. The average daily turnover rates of property - type/franchise - type REITs this week were 0.78%/0.63%, an increase of 16.46/1.69BP from last week. The trading volumes during the week were 569 million/170 million shares, a week - on - week increase of 28.49%/9.15%. The ecological environment protection sector was the most active [5]. 3.2.3 Valuation: The Energy Sector Had a Higher Valuation - According to the ChinaBond valuation yield, the yields of property - type/franchise - type REITs were 3.77%/3.94% respectively. The warehouse logistics (5.12%), transportation (5.09%), and park (4.70%) sectors ranked among the top three [5]. 3.3 This Week's News and Important Announcements - **This Week's News**: On June 27, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the "REITs Expansion Business Handling Guide", and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange also enabled the non - targeted expansion business function. On June 30, the application status of Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT was updated to "accepted". On July 4, AVIC Fund won the bid for the Dujiangyan Scenic Area REITs project [4][31]. - **Important Announcements**: Multiple REITs released expansion, listing, and operation data announcements, including Guotai Junan Lingang Innovation Industrial Park REIT, CICC China Greentown Commercial REIT, etc. [32]

Core Viewpoint - ESR, Asia's largest logistics real estate company, has officially delisted from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and transitioned into a privately held entity, marking a significant step in its privatization process [1][2] Group 1: Privatization Process - The privatization proposal was approved under Section 86 of the Companies Law and will take effect on June 30, 2025, following court approval on June 20 [1] - As of June 30, ESR received valid acceptances for approximately 99.3% of its total share options, indicating strong support for the privatization [1] Group 2: Management Changes - Following privatization, ESR has undergone a significant management overhaul, with Brett Robson appointed as the independent board chairman and Phil Pearce as president [2][3] - New appointments also include Matthew Lawson as CFO, Josh Daitch as Chief Investment Officer, and David Matheson as Chief Investment Officer for Group Strategy and Investment [3][4] Group 3: Strategic Focus - ESR aims to accelerate its strategic transformation post-privatization, focusing on core logistics and data center business areas to leverage its platform advantages in the Asia-Pacific region [2][7] - The management changes are intended to align with long-term strategic goals, allowing for more flexibility in decision-making without the pressures of public market performance [7][8] Group 4: Employee Transition - Employees have been informed about the privatization process, with company-controlled desktop settings to address potential concerns regarding the transition [5][6] - The new management team is expected to enhance operational efficiency and attract top talent through improved compensation and career development opportunities [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent acceptance of the Huaxia Anbo Warehousing and Logistics REIT by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange marks a significant development in the public REIT market, alongside the upcoming issuance of Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT and Chuangjin Hexin Shounong REIT next week [1][6]. Group 1: Huaxia Anbo Warehousing and Logistics REIT - The Huaxia Anbo Warehousing and Logistics REIT has been officially accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with the original rights holder being PCCLF Holding PTE.LTD. and managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., Ltd. [3][4] - This REIT focuses on high-quality warehousing projects located in key logistics nodes within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, specifically in Guangzhou and Dongguan [4][5]. - The project boasts several core advantages, including its strategic location in the manufacturing hub of Dongguan, high-standard infrastructure, and a diverse tenant structure that includes well-known companies like JD.com and Deppon [5]. Group 2: Upcoming REIT Issuances - The Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT completed its inquiry phase with a subscription multiple of 224.26 times, and is set to raise approximately 1.8945 billion yuan [7]. - Chuangjin Hexin Shounong REIT also completed its inquiry with a subscription multiple of 128.95 times, aiming to raise around 3.685 billion yuan [7]. - Additionally, two other REITs, Nanfang Runze Technology Data Center REIT and Nanfang Wanguo Data Center REIT, are in the inquiry phase with specified price ranges [7]. Group 3: Other REIT Developments - On June 26, the Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial Asset REIT was also accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with its underlying assets located in Foshan, Guangdong [8].

Core Viewpoint - The public REITs market in China is experiencing growth with new offerings, including the acceptance of the Huaxia Anbo Warehousing Logistics REIT and upcoming issuances of Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT and Chuangjin Hexin Shounong REIT [2][7] Group 1: Huaxia Anbo Warehousing Logistics REIT - Huaxia Anbo Warehousing Logistics REIT has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, with PCCLF Holding PTE.LTD. as the original rights holder and Huaxia Fund Management Co., Ltd. as the fund manager [4] - The REIT focuses on high-quality warehousing projects in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, including three projects in Guangzhou and Dongguan [5] - Key advantages include location scarcity, high-standard hardware, and a diverse tenant structure with major clients like JD.com and Deppon [5][6] - The REIT aims for stable rental cash flow, with a distribution ratio of no less than 90% of the annual distributable amount, projecting a cash distribution rate of 5.00% in 2025 and 5.02% in 2026 [5] Group 2: Upcoming REIT Issuances - Huaxia Huadian Clean Energy REIT completed its inquiry with 514 subscription objects and a subscription multiple of 224.26 times, with an expected fundraising total of 1.8945 billion yuan [8] - Chuangjin Hexin Shounong REIT also completed its inquiry with 566 subscription objects and a subscription multiple of 128.95 times, aiming to raise 3.685 billion yuan [8] - Two additional REITs, Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT and Southern Wanguo Data Center REIT, are set for inquiry with price ranges specified [8] Group 3: Other REIT Developments - On June 26, Huaxia Zhonghai Commercial Asset REIT was accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, focusing on a mixed-use shopping center in Foshan [9]

Economic Environment - In Q1 2025, the GDP of the Pearl River Delta city cluster grew by 4.2% year-on-year, an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024 [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, up by 2.2 percentage points from the full year of 2024 [1] - Key cities like Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Dongguan showed strong economic resilience, supporting the high-standard logistics real estate market [1] Supply and Demand - Approximately 537,000 square meters of non-bonded high-standard logistics real estate were newly supplied in Q1 2025, mainly concentrated in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Foshan [1] - E-commerce, retail, and third-party logistics remain the primary sources of demand, with e-commerce accounting for about 59.9%, retail for 20.0%, and third-party logistics for 10.0% [1] - The demand is also driven by manufacturing upgrades and the development of cross-border e-commerce [1] Rental and Vacancy Rates - The average rent for non-bonded high-standard logistics real estate in Q1 2025 was approximately 2.79 yuan per square meter per day, remaining stable compared to Q4 2024 [1] - The vacancy rate was around 13.4%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from Q4 2024, primarily due to some new supply not fully entering the market and stable demand [1] Future Outlook - The non-bonded high-standard logistics real estate market in the Pearl River Delta is expected to maintain steady growth in 2025 [2] - The deepening construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will accelerate regional logistics integration, further releasing demand for high-standard logistics real estate [2] - Continuous development in e-commerce, retail, and manufacturing transformation will provide stable demand support, along with policy support, capital attention, and technological innovation driving the market towards high-quality development [2]