叶究音> 2025年11月 joneslanglasalle.com.cn 睿见研究 带你看中国 2025年第三季度物流仓储市场概览 中 量 聯 行 SEE A BRIGHTER WAY 向 光 而 为 2025年第三季度物流仓储市场概览 2025年三季度,国内消费需求有序释放,为物流仓储市场提供一 定支撑。前三季度,社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.5%,其中实物 商品网上零售额增速逐月改善,快递业务量同比增长17.2%,反映 终端消费持续恢复。 上半年仓储需求表现较好的升级类消费品(通讯设备、家用电器 及音像器材等）,在第三季度销售额继续保持较高增速。相关企业 为应对年末购物季提前布局,推动仓储需求向下半年延伸,支撑 国内电商平台和第三方物流企业对高标仓的需求。尽管部分头部 跨境电商平台因全球战略调整,放缓了国内仓储需求扩张节奏, 但内需回暖与企业降本增效驱动的搬迁需求，共同推动市场延续 温和修复进程。 三季度,全国物流地产市场整体供应规模明显收窄,但新增供应 呈现区域性集中,各城市供应节奏差异导致空置率表现分化。受 新增需求偏弱影响,项目间竞争有所加剧,市场租金调整持续。当 前市场仍处于消化存量与结构性调整 ...

李凌表示，高库存是行业"内卷"的根源，但这一局面有望在"十五五"期间迎来转折。办公楼新开工面积 在2024年已降至2019年峰值的四分之一，预计从"十五五"后期开始，新增供应将显著放缓。 高标仓市场的调整更为迅速。2026年新增供应预计同比下降30%，2027年将进一步降至300万平方米以 下，空置率有望回落至15%左右的健康水平。尽管跨境电商需求增速放缓，但高标仓作为基础设施的韧 性凸显：2025年前三季度净吸纳量同比增长62%，达720万平方米，创历史新高。 "高标仓资产价格已逐步触底，部分项目估值甚至跌破建设成本。"李凌指出，"随着供需在未来1–2年内 再平衡，资产价格将迎来系统性重估。"与此同时，零售物业展现出抗周期韧性。他建议投资者关注区 域型购物中心和目的地型奥特莱斯，并适度布局经济发达区域的三线城市龙头项目。 新华财经北京11月14日电（康耕甫） 近日，国内一线城市商业地产迎来投资风口。研究报告显示，国 资、险资等投资型买家正积极买入上海核心物业，人民银行重庆分行也在推动发行重庆市首单公租房商 业地产抵押贷款支持票据。展望后市，经历了多年周期性低谷之后，商业地产凭借长久期、低波动和现 金流稳定等 ...

Core Insights - Logistics is no longer viewed as a backend cost but as a profit lever that can be leveraged across various industries [9] - ESR Group has established a significant presence in China, managing approximately $14 billion in logistics assets across 170 locations in 39 cities [2] Industry Trends - The shift in global geopolitical dynamics highlights the importance of supply chain resilience, with Chinese manufacturing remaining a cornerstone of global production and trade [3] - China's transition to high-quality growth is creating unprecedented opportunities for the logistics sector [3][5] Company Strategy - ESR aims to be an enabler of infrastructure in the context of China's economic transformation, focusing on technology-driven, resilient supply chains and green infrastructure [5][11] - The company differentiates itself through its "Pan-Asia Pacific platform" and its deep local market knowledge, providing comprehensive services that support cross-regional investment and market expansion [6][11] Market Opportunities - The structural transformation of China's economy is expected to drive sustained demand for logistics real estate, particularly in e-commerce, new energy vehicles, and biomedicine sectors [8] - The government's "dual circulation" strategy is enhancing domestic demand and regional trade, further boosting the logistics infrastructure market [8] Future Outlook - The logistics industry is experiencing positive momentum, with expectations for continued growth in warehousing and logistics leasing markets driven by policy support and recovering demand [8] - The competition in logistics is shifting from location-based advantages to functionality and efficiency, with automation and AI expected to play transformative roles [9] ESG Initiatives - ESR is committed to sustainability, having integrated 522 electric vehicle charging stations with photovoltaic systems in China by the end of 2024, promoting low-carbon transportation [12]

Core Insights - The logistics real estate market in Greater China showed a stable performance in Q2 2025, with a demand-driven expansion despite challenges in the manufacturing sector [1][19]. Supply and Demand - In Q2 2025, the Greater China logistics real estate market saw a new supply of 157,732 square meters, with significant contributions from core cities like Shanghai, which added 7.29 million square meters [2]. - Demand remained strong in core cities, particularly from third-party logistics (3PL) companies, with notable leasing activities in the range of 20,000 to 72,000 square meters [2]. Rental and Vacancy Rates - Average rental rates for quality logistics properties in key cities reached 138.6 RMB per square meter per month, reflecting an 8.3% increase quarter-on-quarter, with Shanghai and Shenzhen experiencing significant rental growth of 21.6% and 24.5% respectively [3]. - The overall vacancy rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 14.0%, with core cities like Shanghai and Guangzhou showing even lower rates, while some non-core areas experienced slight increases in vacancy [3]. Market Trends and Outlook - The market is characterized by a trend of "core scarcity and non-core de-stocking," with high-standard warehouses seeing rental increases of 5.6 percentage points over regular warehouses [4]. - The integration of logistics real estate with industries such as e-commerce and high-end manufacturing is driving demand, with a growing emphasis on green logistics projects and smart warehousing facilities [4].

Group 1: Cloud Warehouse Market in China - The cloud warehouse market in China shows significant regional development differences influenced by economic levels, industrial structures, and infrastructure conditions [1] - The national high-standard warehouse stock reaches 168 million square meters, primarily concentrated in the eastern coastal regions, with Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong having the highest stock [1] - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster has a vacancy rate of 28.56% and a rental price of 21.91 yuan per square meter per month, facing dual pressures of inventory and insufficient demand [1] - The Yangtze River Delta city cluster has a vacancy rate of 25.42% and effective rent of 25.71 yuan per square meter per month, benefiting from rental price reductions [1] - The Pearl River Delta city cluster stands out with a low vacancy rate of 6.12% and effective rent of 35.24 yuan per square meter per month, but may face future de-stocking pressure due to high supply [1] - The Central Yangtze River and Chengdu-Chongqing city clusters have lower vacancy rates of 13.33% and 8.91%, respectively, with relatively low rental levels [1] Group 2: Global Cloud Warehouse Market - The global cloud warehouse market exhibits clear regional differentiation, with North America and Europe having high maturity levels, led by companies like Amazon FBA and SAP [2] - The Asia-Pacific market is characterized by an "China technology + local infrastructure" model due to the e-commerce boom, with 60% of cloud warehouse solutions in Southeast Asia provided by Chinese companies [2] - The African region is still exploring digitalization, with Kenya's Jumia improving inventory turnover by 60% after adopting Alibaba's cloud warehouse management system, but facing limitations due to insufficient electricity infrastructure and low automation equipment penetration below 10% [2] - These regional differences provide diverse options for companies to adopt differentiated cloud warehouse strategies based on business layout and market demand [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the property investment market, with an expected year-on-year growth of 5-10% in total investment volume for the year [8]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the national large-scale property investment transaction volume reached 132.1 billion, a 19% increase compared to the same period last year, despite a 29% decrease in the number of transactions [5][3]. - Institutional buyers are optimistic about consumer and residential assets, with retail property and rental residential transaction volumes doubling year-on-year [3][5]. - Capitalization rates for various asset types in first-tier cities have shown a narrowing increase compared to the second half of last year, although there remains short-term upward pressure [3][5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The investment sentiment remains cautious, with institutional capital focusing on high-quality real estate [5]. - The transaction volume for retail properties and rental residential assets increased by 166% and 200% respectively compared to the previous year [5]. Capitalization Rates - The capitalization rates for Grade A office buildings, retail properties, and high-standard warehouses in first-tier cities have expanded by nearly 20 basis points compared to the end of last year [5][9]. - The average capital value of office buildings in first-tier cities has decreased by 43% since 2022, indicating a continued interest in core office assets [8]. Future Predictions - The report anticipates that the market activity will marginally improve in the second half of the year, driven by an expanding pool of available assets and increased risk premiums [8]. - The focus for investment in the second half of the year will remain on consumer and residential sectors, with particular attention to the evolution of trade tariffs and domestic demand stimulation policies [8].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The logistics real estate market in China is experiencing a significant transformation, with a national high-standard warehouse vacancy rate nearing 18%, showing a downward trend. The average effective rent has slightly decreased to 21.6 yuan per square meter [1][2][3]. Key Points Market Dynamics - The total stock of high-standard warehouses reached 172 million square meters in Q2 2023, marking a nearly 2% quarter-over-quarter increase. Since December 2019, the stock has increased by nearly 100 million square meters [2]. - Major provinces for high-standard warehouse stock are Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang, with Suzhou leading at 14 million square meters [1][2]. - New supply in Q2 2023 was concentrated in cities like Foshan, Guangzhou, Wuxi, Beijing, and Suqian, leading to a temporary imbalance in supply and demand, causing rents to decline in some areas [4]. Rental Trends - In cities with high occupancy rates, rents have bottomed out and are showing slight recovery. Cities like Shanghai, Dongguan, Guangzhou, and Beijing maintain rents above 30 yuan per square meter [4]. - The average rent in the logistics real estate market is experiencing a downward trend, despite improvements in occupancy rates over the past three quarters [31]. Demand Drivers - The primary demand for logistics real estate comes from e-commerce, third-party logistics, and express delivery sectors. During the 618 shopping festival, there was a notable increase in demand for temporary and external warehouses from platform companies [5][8]. - The home appliance industry and large supply chain companies are expanding warehouse space due to national subsidy policies, which continue to drive demand [5][7]. Future Supply Outlook - An estimated 10 million square meters of new supply is expected in the second half of 2025, with 13 million square meters in 2026, primarily in Guangdong, Beijing, and Shanghai [3][11]. - The overall supply is expected to decrease as the focus shifts towards stock integration and transactions, following a slowdown in project development over the past two years [11][30]. Regional Insights - The South China region is seeing significant integration in cross-border e-commerce warehouse layouts, with e-commerce platform leasing area share increasing from 7.6% in Q2 2024 to 30.9% in Q2 2025 [6][7]. - The Yangtze River Delta region has the largest stock of high-standard warehouses at approximately 60 million square meters, with a control rate of about 25% and average rent around 25 yuan per square meter [14][19]. Impact of External Factors - Changes in U.S. policies have led to increased direct mail costs, affecting user activity for companies like Shein and Temu, with declines of 25% and 50% respectively [3][9]. - Meituan's business adjustments have led to some warehouse de-leasing, but the overall impact on the market is limited due to continued demand from other segments [10]. Market Health Indicators - The health of the market cannot be judged by a fixed vacancy rate due to significant differences in stock bases across cities. For instance, a 10% vacancy rate in Beijing equates to 300,000 square meters, while the same rate in Tianjin represents 1 million square meters [34]. Conclusion - The logistics real estate market is adapting to changing demands and external pressures, with a focus on e-commerce and supply chain dynamics. Future supply will be closely monitored as the market continues to evolve, particularly in key regions like South China and the Yangtze River Delta.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the logistics real estate market in China, focusing on high-standard warehouses and their performance metrics across various regions [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Size and Growth**: The national high-standard warehouse market has reached a stock of 1.72 billion square meters, showing a slight increase of nearly 2% quarter-on-quarter [2]. 2. **Rental Trends**: Average rental prices have seen a decline, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8% and a year-on-year decrease of 11% [1]. The effective rental rate is approximately 21.6 [3]. 3. **Occupancy Rates**: Despite the decline in rental prices, occupancy rates have shown signs of recovery, with most projects experiencing an increase in occupancy rates compared to previous quarters [1][5]. 4. **Regional Performance**: - **Top Regions**: Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang are the top three provinces in terms of warehouse stock [3]. - **City Rankings**: Suzhou leads in stock with 14 million square meters, followed by Shanghai and Tianjin, each nearing 10 million square meters [4]. - **Emerging Cities**: New supply is concentrated in cities like Foshan, Guangzhou, and Wuxi, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5]. 5. **Demand Drivers**: The primary demand for warehouse space comes from e-commerce, third-party logistics, and express delivery sectors, with notable activity during promotional events like 618 [8][41]. 6. **Future Supply Outlook**: The anticipated supply for 2025 is projected to be around 1.3 billion square meters, indicating a slowdown compared to previous years [16][39]. 7. **Market Adjustments**: The market is experiencing adjustments due to increased supply and changing demand dynamics, leading to a potential decline in rental prices and occupancy rates in the short term [47]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Impact of E-commerce Promotions**: The 618 shopping festival has significantly influenced warehouse demand, with many e-commerce platforms increasing their rental space during this period [9][10]. 2. **Cross-Border E-commerce Trends**: The logistics market is also adapting to the needs of cross-border e-commerce, particularly in the southern regions, which are seeing increased warehouse integration and layout adjustments [9][11]. 3. **Market Resilience**: Despite the challenges, the logistics real estate market in regions like Guangdong remains robust, with a healthy occupancy rate of around 6% [46]. 4. **Long-term Adjustments**: The market is expected to stabilize as supply and demand reach a more balanced state, with some regions potentially seeing a rebound in rental prices as occupancy improves [40][41]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the logistics real estate market in China.