戴德梁行《2025年第二季度大中华区物流地产市场回顾报告》，通过多维度数据与区域分析，呈现该季度市场供需、租金、空置率及行业动态，为市场参与 者提供参考。 从整体经济与行业景气度看，2025年第二季度中国内地物流业景气指数保持扩张态势，四月为51.1%、五月50.6%、六月50.8%，均高于50%荣枯线，显示物 流行业整体运行稳健，需求端具备支撑力。同期，制造业PMI（采购经理指数）于五月录得49.0，虽处于收缩区间，但物流地产市场受消费与电商需求带 动，仍保持相对活跃。外贸方面，五月集装箱吞吐量达560万TEU，同比微增0.6%，较2021年同期增长22%，反映跨境物流需求平稳，对港口周边物流地产 形成一定支撑。 供需层面，供应端呈现区域分化特征。2025年第二季度大中华区物流地产新增供应量达157,732平方米，部分区域如上海、广州等核心城市新增供应较为集 中，上海单季新增供应729万平方米（数据单位待进一步确认，推测为区域内重点板块贡献），而部分二三线城市新增供应相对有限。需求端，核心城市租 赁活动活跃，重点城市优质物流地产净吸纳量表现亮眼，其中3PL（第三方物流）企业为主要租赁群体，典型成交案例包括某 ...

全球区域市场分化明显。北美、欧洲云仓市场成熟度高，亚马逊FBA、SAP等企业主导标准化运营。亚太 市场因电商爆发呈现"中国技术+本地基建"模式，东南亚市场60%的云仓方案由中国企业提供。非洲地区 仍在探索数字化，肯尼亚Jumia引入阿里云仓管理系统后库存周转率提升60%，但受限于电力基础设施， 自动化设备渗透率不足10% 。 这种区域差异化特征为企业提供了多样化的选择空间，可根据业务布局和市场需求，在不同区域采取差异 化的云仓策略。 云仓市场在不同地区展现出明显的发展差异，受经济发展水平、产业结构和基础设施条件影响，各地云仓 市场呈现出多样化特征。 全国高标仓市场分布不均衡。从物联云仓数据来看，全国高标仓存量达1.68亿平方米，但主要集中在东部 沿海地区，江苏、浙江、广东位列存量前三。这种分布格局与中国区域经济发展水平高度吻合，经济发达 地区对高品质仓储设施的需求更为旺盛。 重点城市群市场表现各异。京津冀城市群空置率高达28.56%，租金21.91元/平方米/月，面临库存与需求不 足的双重压力。长三角城市群通过租金下调带动去化，空置率为25.42%，有效租金25.71元/平方米/月 。珠 三角城市群表现最为亮 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the property investment market, with an expected year-on-year growth of 5-10% in total investment volume for the year [8]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the national large-scale property investment transaction volume reached 132.1 billion, a 19% increase compared to the same period last year, despite a 29% decrease in the number of transactions [5][3]. - Institutional buyers are optimistic about consumer and residential assets, with retail property and rental residential transaction volumes doubling year-on-year [3][5]. - Capitalization rates for various asset types in first-tier cities have shown a narrowing increase compared to the second half of last year, although there remains short-term upward pressure [3][5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The investment sentiment remains cautious, with institutional capital focusing on high-quality real estate [5]. - The transaction volume for retail properties and rental residential assets increased by 166% and 200% respectively compared to the previous year [5]. Capitalization Rates - The capitalization rates for Grade A office buildings, retail properties, and high-standard warehouses in first-tier cities have expanded by nearly 20 basis points compared to the end of last year [5][9]. - The average capital value of office buildings in first-tier cities has decreased by 43% since 2022, indicating a continued interest in core office assets [8]. Future Predictions - The report anticipates that the market activity will marginally improve in the second half of the year, driven by an expanding pool of available assets and increased risk premiums [8]. - The focus for investment in the second half of the year will remain on consumer and residential sectors, with particular attention to the evolution of trade tariffs and domestic demand stimulation policies [8].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The logistics real estate market in China is experiencing a significant transformation, with a national high-standard warehouse vacancy rate nearing 18%, showing a downward trend. The average effective rent has slightly decreased to 21.6 yuan per square meter [1][2][3]. Key Points Market Dynamics - The total stock of high-standard warehouses reached 172 million square meters in Q2 2023, marking a nearly 2% quarter-over-quarter increase. Since December 2019, the stock has increased by nearly 100 million square meters [2]. - Major provinces for high-standard warehouse stock are Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang, with Suzhou leading at 14 million square meters [1][2]. - New supply in Q2 2023 was concentrated in cities like Foshan, Guangzhou, Wuxi, Beijing, and Suqian, leading to a temporary imbalance in supply and demand, causing rents to decline in some areas [4]. Rental Trends - In cities with high occupancy rates, rents have bottomed out and are showing slight recovery. Cities like Shanghai, Dongguan, Guangzhou, and Beijing maintain rents above 30 yuan per square meter [4]. - The average rent in the logistics real estate market is experiencing a downward trend, despite improvements in occupancy rates over the past three quarters [31]. Demand Drivers - The primary demand for logistics real estate comes from e-commerce, third-party logistics, and express delivery sectors. During the 618 shopping festival, there was a notable increase in demand for temporary and external warehouses from platform companies [5][8]. - The home appliance industry and large supply chain companies are expanding warehouse space due to national subsidy policies, which continue to drive demand [5][7]. Future Supply Outlook - An estimated 10 million square meters of new supply is expected in the second half of 2025, with 13 million square meters in 2026, primarily in Guangdong, Beijing, and Shanghai [3][11]. - The overall supply is expected to decrease as the focus shifts towards stock integration and transactions, following a slowdown in project development over the past two years [11][30]. Regional Insights - The South China region is seeing significant integration in cross-border e-commerce warehouse layouts, with e-commerce platform leasing area share increasing from 7.6% in Q2 2024 to 30.9% in Q2 2025 [6][7]. - The Yangtze River Delta region has the largest stock of high-standard warehouses at approximately 60 million square meters, with a control rate of about 25% and average rent around 25 yuan per square meter [14][19]. Impact of External Factors - Changes in U.S. policies have led to increased direct mail costs, affecting user activity for companies like Shein and Temu, with declines of 25% and 50% respectively [3][9]. - Meituan's business adjustments have led to some warehouse de-leasing, but the overall impact on the market is limited due to continued demand from other segments [10]. Market Health Indicators - The health of the market cannot be judged by a fixed vacancy rate due to significant differences in stock bases across cities. For instance, a 10% vacancy rate in Beijing equates to 300,000 square meters, while the same rate in Tianjin represents 1 million square meters [34]. Conclusion - The logistics real estate market is adapting to changing demands and external pressures, with a focus on e-commerce and supply chain dynamics. Future supply will be closely monitored as the market continues to evolve, particularly in key regions like South China and the Yangtze River Delta.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the logistics real estate market in China, focusing on high-standard warehouses and their performance metrics across various regions [2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Size and Growth**: The national high-standard warehouse market has reached a stock of 1.72 billion square meters, showing a slight increase of nearly 2% quarter-on-quarter [2]. 2. **Rental Trends**: Average rental prices have seen a decline, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8% and a year-on-year decrease of 11% [1]. The effective rental rate is approximately 21.6 [3]. 3. **Occupancy Rates**: Despite the decline in rental prices, occupancy rates have shown signs of recovery, with most projects experiencing an increase in occupancy rates compared to previous quarters [1][5]. 4. **Regional Performance**: - **Top Regions**: Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang are the top three provinces in terms of warehouse stock [3]. - **City Rankings**: Suzhou leads in stock with 14 million square meters, followed by Shanghai and Tianjin, each nearing 10 million square meters [4]. - **Emerging Cities**: New supply is concentrated in cities like Foshan, Guangzhou, and Wuxi, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5]. 5. **Demand Drivers**: The primary demand for warehouse space comes from e-commerce, third-party logistics, and express delivery sectors, with notable activity during promotional events like 618 [8][41]. 6. **Future Supply Outlook**: The anticipated supply for 2025 is projected to be around 1.3 billion square meters, indicating a slowdown compared to previous years [16][39]. 7. **Market Adjustments**: The market is experiencing adjustments due to increased supply and changing demand dynamics, leading to a potential decline in rental prices and occupancy rates in the short term [47]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Impact of E-commerce Promotions**: The 618 shopping festival has significantly influenced warehouse demand, with many e-commerce platforms increasing their rental space during this period [9][10]. 2. **Cross-Border E-commerce Trends**: The logistics market is also adapting to the needs of cross-border e-commerce, particularly in the southern regions, which are seeing increased warehouse integration and layout adjustments [9][11]. 3. **Market Resilience**: Despite the challenges, the logistics real estate market in regions like Guangdong remains robust, with a healthy occupancy rate of around 6% [46]. 4. **Long-term Adjustments**: The market is expected to stabilize as supply and demand reach a more balanced state, with some regions potentially seeing a rebound in rental prices as occupancy improves [40][41]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the logistics real estate market in China.