SDICSI 2026 年 1 月 26 日 行业报告 1 月消费观察：25 年社会零售全年增长 3.7% 报告摘要 根据国家统计局发布的数据，25 年 12 月社会零售总额为 45136 亿元，同比增长 0.9%，1-12 月累积增长 3.7%。自 25 年 6 月以来，社零增速持续回落，各个主要 细分消费板块也观察到了类似的表现。从基本面来看，消费增长仍存在压力。 商品零售增速继续回落，12 月商品零售总额为 39398 亿元，同比增长 0.7%，增 速较上月下降 0.3pct，1-12 月累积增长 3.8%。餐饮四季度起有边际改善，较三 季度增速回升，12 月餐饮零售总额为 5738 亿元，同比增长 2.2%，1-12 月累积增 长 3.2%，其中规模以上餐饮零售 12 月同比下滑 1.1%。 其他细分领域：必选消费增速下滑，12 月粮油食品零售总额为 2323 亿元，同比 增长 3.9%，1-12 月累积增长 9.3%;12 月日用品零售总额为 776 亿元，同比增长 3.7%，1-12 月累积增长 6.3%，四季度粮油食品和日用品增速都较三季度明显回 落，我们认为与 CPI 有关。服装消费增长乏力， ...

Core Insights - The ceramic core electronic cigarette has become a mainstream solution in the industry due to its advantages such as precise temperature control, leak-proof design, and low harm stability, with the atomization core being a key component for product experience [1][2] - China's electronic cigarette market has reached hundreds of billions of yuan, with the ceramic core segment expected to grow to 73.88 billion yuan by 2024, transitioning from a compliance "must-have" to a technology "preferred option" [1][12] - The industry is evolving towards high-end technology, concentrated market structure, and diversified product offerings, leveraging cross-domain technology integration to enhance product experience and expand into niche markets and overseas [1][12] Industry Overview - The ceramic core electronic cigarette utilizes a porous ceramic atomization core as the main heating medium, offering features like precise temperature control and long lifespan, which reduces harmful substance release and enhances flavor stability [2][3] - The industry has seen a series of regulatory policies aimed at eliminating outdated technologies and raising entry barriers, creating a compliant development environment for ceramic core electronic cigarettes [6][7] Market Dynamics - China's traditional cigarette production remains stable, while the new tobacco sector is rapidly adapting to regulatory changes, with an expected user base of over 30 million by 2025, primarily among urban middle-to-high-income individuals aged 25-40 [7][8] - The global new tobacco market is projected to grow to $95.15 billion by 2025, with electronic cigarettes capturing approximately 26.86% of the market share, while heated non-combustible (HNB) products dominate with a 46.39% share [12][13] Competitive Landscape - The industry value chain involves close collaboration among upstream suppliers of ceramic powders, batteries, and chips, midstream manufacturers centered in Shenzhen, and downstream market expansion through both online and offline channels [10][11] - The market is characterized by a trend towards high-end products driven by compliance, with a clear segmentation between high-end and low-end markets, leading to increased concentration among leading firms [15][16] Future Trends - The ceramic core electronic cigarette industry is expected to upgrade from single-function products to multi-experience offerings, integrating smart technologies and enhancing user experience [14] - Regulatory compliance will continue to shape market dynamics, with increased barriers leading to the exit of smaller firms and a concentration of resources among leading companies [15] - The industry will explore new growth avenues through diversified product applications and innovative business models, including localized operations in overseas markets [16]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Smoore International (06969) experienced a decline of over 4% in its stock price due to the announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration to cancel the export tax rebate for e-cigarette products starting from April 1, 2026, which will significantly impact profit margins [1] - The previous 13% tax rebate was crucial for companies to hedge costs and maintain international pricing advantages, and its removal means companies will have to bear the full VAT cost [1] - Zheshang Securities recently published a report indicating that the government is intensifying efforts to regulate illegal activities in the domestic e-cigarette production, sales, and export sectors, suggesting that the supply-side landscape of the industry will change [1] Group 2 - The report suggests that smaller illegal producers may be accelerated out of the market, which could benefit compliant companies like Smoore International, positioning it as a leading player in the industry [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that Smoore International (06969) experienced a decline of over 4%, trading at HKD 11.18 with a transaction volume of HKD 172 million [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for electronic cigarette products will be canceled, which previously had a rebate rate of 13% [1] - The removal of the tax rebate means that companies will have to bear the full VAT cost, which will directly compress profit margins [1] Group 2 - Zheshang Securities (601878) released a report indicating that the government is intensifying efforts to regulate illegal activities in the domestic electronic cigarette production, sales, and export sectors [1] - The industry supply-side structure is expected to change, with illegal small workshops likely to be accelerated in their exit from the market [1] - As a compliant listed leader, Smoore International is expected to benefit from these regulatory changes [1]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.86%, gaining 224 points to close at 26,456 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 2.08%. The morning trading volume reached HKD 168.4 billion [1] - Companies involved in AI large models saw significant gains, with MINIMAX-WP (00100) up over 31%, and Zhiyun (02513) rising by 30% after a strategic partnership with Didi to explore mobility agent scenarios [1] - The AI pharmaceutical sector also benefited from the surge in AI large models, with companies like Yingshi Intelligent (03696) up 12%, and Yidu Tech (02158) increasing by over 8% [1] Group 2 - Kuaishou-W (01024) increased by 5.62%, with its AI initiatives expected to significantly boost revenue for the fiscal year 2026 [2] - Kingdee International (00268) rose by 10.71%, driven by accelerated full-process empowerment through industrial large models and the implementation of multi-agent collaboration in its AI Starry Sky suite [3] - New stock Haowei Group (603501) (00501) debuted with a 15% increase, recognized as a leading Fabless semiconductor design company [4] Group 3 - LFG Investment Holdings (03938) resumed trading and surged over 120% following a cash offer from Chen Shaoyang at a discount of approximately 59.46% [5] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300750) (03750) fell by 2.94% due to the introduction of a new battery export tax rebate policy, while lithium carbonate prices continued to rise [6] - Smoore International (06969) declined by 1.87% as the export tax rebate for electronic cigarettes is set to be canceled, potentially impacting the profits of related companies [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in the stock price of Smoore International (06969), which dropped nearly 7% during trading and is currently down 3.31% at HKD 11.4, with a trading volume of HKD 132 million [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a new export tax rebate adjustment, which will exclude nicotine-containing non-combustible products from the rebate starting April 1, 2026 [1] - Analysts indicate that the previous 13% tax rebate was crucial for companies to offset costs and maintain international pricing advantages; the removal of this rebate means companies will have to bear the full VAT cost, directly compressing profit margins [1] Group 2 - Huafu Securities released a research report suggesting that with international tobacco leaders' HNB products entering mainstream markets, Smoore's new tobacco products in new regions are expected to contribute incremental sales [1] - The report also notes that regions like the UK and other European areas are likely to shift towards more profitable products such as cartridge-based and open-system devices [1] - There is a significant increase in enforcement of regulations on e-cigarettes in the US, which is expected to restore market share for compliant products [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant impact of the Chinese government's announcement to remove export tax rebates for nicotine-containing non-combustible products, effective from April 1, 2026, which is expected to compress profit margins for companies like Smoore International [1] - Smoore International's stock experienced a decline of nearly 7% during trading, closing down 3.31% at HKD 11.4, with a trading volume of HKD 132 million [1] - The previous 13% tax rebate was crucial for companies to offset costs and maintain international pricing advantages; the removal of this rebate means companies will have to bear the full value-added tax costs [1] Group 2 - Huafu Securities released a report indicating that the entry of international tobacco leaders' HNB products into mainstream markets could lead to increased sales of Smoore's new tobacco products in new regions [1] - There is potential for stronger profitability in regions like the UK and other European areas, particularly with the shift towards more profitable pod-based and open-system products [1] - The enforcement of regulations on e-cigarettes in the US has intensified, suggesting a significant recovery potential for compliant product shares in the market [1]

Regulatory Developments - Multiple new policies regarding the electronic cigarette industry are in the public consultation stage, aimed at strengthening credit management and promoting legal and standardized governance of the industry [2] - The State Tobacco Monopoly Administration has released a draft for public consultation on credit management for electronic cigarette production and wholesale enterprises, which includes measures for credit collection, dishonesty recognition, credit rating, information disclosure, dishonesty punishment, and credit repair [3][4] - The draft categorizes dishonesty information into three levels based on severity, with different public disclosure periods, and establishes a credit rating system for enterprises ranging from A to D [3] Industry Impact - The recent regulations are seen as crucial for the healthy growth of the electronic cigarette industry, following a framework established in 2021 that aligns electronic cigarette regulation with traditional tobacco products [3] - The notification issued on December 25, 2025, explicitly prohibits new investment projects that increase production capacity, while allowing for capacity increases only under strict conditions [6] - Companies like Jinjia Co. and Yinghe Co. report stable operations in the electronic cigarette sector, with a focus on overseas markets, indicating that the new policies may have limited immediate impact on their business [6] Market Dynamics - There is a noted trend of consolidation within the industry as some leading companies face capacity shortages, which may lead to acquisitions to expand production capabilities [7] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with some companies experiencing increased sales but declining revenues, prompting concerns about illegal and non-compliant business practices [7] - The government's recent directive to combat illegal tobacco activities emphasizes the need for stricter enforcement and regulation within the industry [7]

Core Viewpoint - Smoore International, known as the "first stock of electronic cigarettes," is facing significant challenges, including a declining stock price and market value, attributed to regulatory pressures, stagnant profits despite revenue growth, and changing market sentiment [1][6][25] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Smoore's revenue reached 10.21 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, with Q3 revenue hitting a record high of 4.197 billion RMB, growing over 27% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [4] - However, net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 was 809 million RMB, down 23.8% year-on-year, with a Q3 net profit of 317 million RMB, a decrease of 16.4% [4] - The company's net profit margin has plummeted from 38.44% in 2021 to 7.92% in the first three quarters of 2025 [4] Market Challenges - Smoore's revenue from mainland China dropped by 92.7% in 2023 due to stringent regulations, with its revenue share falling from approximately 18.5% to about 1.5% [6] - Increased sales and distribution expenses, which rose by 31.2% to 491 million RMB in the first half of 2025, have further pressured profitability [6] - The company's gross margin has decreased from 53.6% in 2021 to 37.3% in the first half of 2025, indicating a decline in the quality of revenue growth [7] Strategic Shift - Smoore is attempting to diversify its business by launching the "Lanzhi" beauty brand, which utilizes TPS (Transdermal Permeation System) technology, aiming to create a "second growth curve" [1][13] - The Lanzhi brand generated sales of 30.61 million RMB in the first half of 2025, but its contribution to overall revenue remains minimal [12][23] - The beauty market is seen as a high-margin opportunity, with Smoore hoping to replicate its electronic cigarette success in this new sector [13] Competitive Landscape - The beauty device market is highly competitive, with established international brands dominating the high-end segment and local brands capturing the mid-to-low end [16] - Lanzhi faces challenges such as low brand recognition, insufficient distribution channels, and competition from other beauty companies [16][24] - The effectiveness and safety of the TPS technology remain under scrutiny, with concerns about its ability to deliver active ingredients effectively and safely [18][19] Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape for beauty aerosol products is still evolving, with uncertainties regarding specific regulations for aerosol beauty technology [21] - Smoore's transition into the beauty sector may not provide immediate relief from its current profitability issues, as the Lanzhi brand's profitability may take up to two years to materialize [23][25]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that RLX Technology (RLX.US) has extended its existing stock repurchase plan by 24 months until December 31, 2027, allowing for the repurchase of up to $500 million of its American Depositary Shares (ADS) [1] - The initial stock repurchase plan was established in December 2021 and was previously extended in December 2023 [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the company has repurchased approximately 170 million ADS, totaling around $330 million, leaving a remaining unused quota of approximately $170 million [1] Group 2 - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration has recently solicited opinions on a draft notice regarding the implementation of electronic cigarette industry policies to further promote supply-demand balance [2] - The draft notice proposes to strengthen the regulation of electronic cigarette production capacity, emphasizing a market demand-oriented approach for supply-side structural reform in the electronic cigarette industry [2] - It outlines that production enterprises must operate within their approved production capacity and prohibits production beyond this limit, with provisions for capacity adjustment requiring re-approval and compliance with licensing procedures [2]