证 券 研 究 报 告 谁卷？谁赢？——反内卷行业比较 2025年7月8日 证券分析师：姚 佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 证券分析师：丁炎晨 执业编号：S0360523070005 邮箱：dingyanchen@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 谁卷？谁赢？——反内卷行业比较 证 券 研 究 报 告 ┃ 摘要 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 • 7/1中央财经委会议聚焦供给侧优化和"反内卷"竞争，参考2015-2016年供给侧改革经验，后续相关产业有望出台具体方案。 • "反内卷"重点行业：高库存、高CAPEX、低产能利用率、价格水平低。从库存、CAPEX、产能利用率、价格水平4个角度筛选当前"内卷" 程度更高的行业，也是下半年政策发力的重点领域。周期：化工（化学制品、橡胶、非金属材料），有色（能源金属等），煤炭，钢铁（普钢、 冶钢原 ...

调研行业：装修建材 参与调研的机构：中信证券、广发证券、招商证券等 四通股份分析师会议 调研日期：2025年07月07日 / 机构调研pro小程序 DJvanbao.com 洞见研报 出品 : 机构调研pro小程序致力于为金融证券投资者提供最新最全的调研会议纪要。 来机构调研pro小程序，了解最新的：行业投资风向、热门公司关注、权威机构分析... 权威完善的信息持续更新! 更多精彩的机构调报告请移步机构调研pro小程序~ 一解投资机构行业关注度。 频判市场 | Gallia | | | --- | --- | | 11 2 12 200 2 110 | | | 1:给我们 = 影片面临官 = | | | 阿里巴巴佩尼 | | | 钢铁机之题。 8 | 图纸制图: 23 | | 20GB Millio Aller 19 | | | 海双集团 | | | 1 1 80.0 0 | 总机构建 23 | | LOGA: REGH, KETA: 1986 | | | 小麦具日 | | | 的研究次数:8 | 上机构馆:23 | | 定年代的:用者点击:我要的中:主要原因 | | | START SHILL CARD | ...

近年来，房地产行业景气度不佳，装修建材板块的表现整体乏善可陈，伴随市场的持续调整，机会也开 始孕育。 眼下来看，房地产行业确实不可能回到过去的行情，但不可否认，过去受地产拖累的上下游行业随着长 时间处在底部，如今伴随经济的复苏和市场出清，正逐步摆脱房地产的影响，迎来新的转机。 对东方雨虹来说，这种业务模式、渠道结构的积极变化不仅从根源上解决了应收账款问题，而且能够持 续改善公司经营现金流。而良好的经营现金净流量也是其能够进行高比例分红最核心的基石及利润分配 的源泉。 如今来看，伴随阵痛过去，东方雨虹的增长新引擎也已经启动。 一方面是，砂粉等多元业务的崛起。 近日，笔者留意到东方雨虹在互动易平台上回答了投资者一系列相关问题，展现了公司清晰的战略规 划，不妨透过这些问答和公司财报亮点挖掘其背后的投资机会。 1、存量时代，战略转型打开新成长机遇 当前，中国住宅装修需求已彻底转向存量房主导，新房驱动的黄金时代一去不复返。 过去十年，东方雨虹凭借大B端集采模式快速扩张，但随着行业步入深度调整，特别是一众房企暴雷 等，也让这一模式遭遇压力。可以看到，面对这一行业趋势，公司也开始主动收缩直销业务，转向C端 零售和小B工程渠 ...

截至2025年7月4日收盘，三棵树（603737）报收于37.86元，较上周的36.94元上涨2.49%。本周，三棵 树7月4日盘中最高价报37.88元。7月2日盘中最低价报35.89元。三棵树当前最新总市值279.34亿元，在 装修建材板块市值排名2/35，在两市A股市值排名544/5149。 本周关注点 公司公告汇总 三棵树涂料股份有限公司发布了2025年半年度业绩预增公告。公司预计2025年半年度实现归属于上市公 司股东的净利润在人民币38,000万元到46,000万元之间，与上年同期相比，将增加人民币16,999万元到 24,999万元，同比增加80.94%到119.04%。预计2025年半年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性 损益的净利润在人民币23,000万元到31,000万元之间，与上年同期相比，将增加人民币15,070万元到 23,070万元，同比增加190.04%到290.92%。业绩预增的主要原因包括公司积极调整和优化产品结构，零 售业务规模及整体毛利率较上年同期增长；通过精准施策强化费用管控，优化开支结构并提升资金使用 效能，有效降低各项成本费用支出；相关需计提的减值准备较上年同期有 ...

国联民生（601456）证券发布研报称，短期水泥错峰协同强度有望维持较高水平，支撑价格持续改善， 中长期供给方面政策有望支撑盈利中枢持续提升，同时高分红凸显中长期配置价值，建议重视区域水泥 龙头。此外，建议关注装修建材龙头(头部企业渠道下沉/拓品类等变革持续进行，行业出清背景下市占 率有望加速提升)。受益于AI算力需求激增等，高端电子布需求持续高景气，建议重点关注具有先发优 势且扩产势头强劲的龙头企业。随着并购新规中的优化机制逐步落地，有望进一步激发市场化并购活 力，建议重点关注传统建材资产整合驱动的转型前景。 国联民生证券主要观点如下： 水泥：供给侧改革&高分红，凸显长期配置价值 近期大多区域协同出现松动，2025M4以来水泥市场表现出"旺季不旺"的特征，行业景气度边际回落， 但较2024年同期景气度改善较为明显。2025年4-5月全国单吨水泥均价为390元，yoy+24元/+6%，较 2025Q1 -17元/-4%。短期水泥行业错峰强度或将维持较高水平，行业景气有望震荡上行。中长期碳交易 和产能置换新规双轮驱动，有利于推动落后产能出清，竞争格局有望持续优化。同时，部分水泥企业发 布中长期股东分红回报规划， ...

General Principles - The document outlines the management system for the shares held by the board members and senior management of Guangzhou Seagull Housing Industrial Co., Ltd, aiming to strengthen the management of shareholding and trading activities [1][2]. - The system is applicable to all shares held by the company's directors and senior management, including those held in others' accounts and through margin trading [1][2]. Share Trading Management - Directors and senior management must notify the board secretary in writing before trading shares, who will verify compliance with relevant laws and regulations [2]. - There are restrictions on share transfers during specific periods, such as within one year of the company's stock listing and within six months after leaving the company [2][3]. - A prohibition on trading exists during certain windows, including 15 days before the annual and semi-annual reports and 5 days before quarterly reports [3][4]. Short-term Trading Restrictions - Directors and senior management are prohibited from short-term trading, defined as selling shares within six months of purchase or buying shares within six months of selling [4][5]. Reporting Requirements - Any changes in shareholding must be reported within two trading days, including details such as the number of shares held before and after the change [5][6]. Transfer Limits - During their term and for six months after, directors and senior management can only transfer up to 25% of their shares each year, with specific exceptions for legal circumstances [6][7]. Shareholding Increase Regulations - Directors and senior management must disclose any plans for increasing their shareholdings and report on the progress of such plans [7][8]. Accountability Measures - The company is responsible for monitoring compliance with shareholding and trading regulations, with the board secretary overseeing the reporting and disclosure of shareholding changes [9][10]. - Violations of these regulations may result in penalties from regulatory authorities and internal disciplinary actions [10][11].

General Principles - The rules are established to protect the legal rights of the company and its shareholders, ensuring the proper exercise of shareholder meeting powers in accordance with relevant laws and regulations [1][27] - The company must strictly follow legal and regulatory requirements when convening shareholder meetings [1][3] Nature and Powers of the Shareholder Meeting - The shareholder meeting is the highest authority of the company [3] - The meeting has the authority to elect and replace directors, approve remuneration, and make decisions on significant corporate actions such as mergers, asset sales exceeding 30% of total assets, and amendments to the articles of association [4][22] Convening of Shareholder Meetings - Shareholder meetings are categorized into annual and temporary meetings, with specific timelines for their convening [3][5] - The board of directors is responsible for timely convening of meetings and must report to regulatory authorities if unable to do so [6][8] Proposals and Notifications - Proposals for the shareholder meeting must fall within its authority and be clearly defined [14] - Shareholders holding more than 1% of shares can submit proposals 10 days before the meeting [9] Conducting the Meeting - The meeting must be held at the company's registered location and can utilize online methods for shareholder participation [12][13] - Shareholders can attend in person or through proxies, and each share carries one vote [12][13] Voting Procedures - Voting can be conducted through various methods, and the results must be announced immediately [19][21] - Ordinary resolutions require a majority, while special resolutions require two-thirds approval from attending shareholders [53][55] Record Keeping and Execution - Meeting records must include details such as time, location, attendees, and voting results, and must be preserved for at least 10 years [23][24] - The board of directors is responsible for executing the resolutions passed during the shareholder meeting [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [4] Core Viewpoints - The construction materials sector is experiencing a demand season that is not significantly weak, supported by delayed renovations in the second-hand housing market [2] - The glass market is facing a contradiction between supply and demand, with a continuous decline in demand expected post-2025, although there has been marginal improvement since March [2] - The cement industry is in a phase of seeking a bottom, with increased off-peak production efforts by companies, leading to fluctuating prices around unprofitable levels [2] - The fiberglass market has shown signs of bottoming out, with price wars ending and prices beginning to recover, particularly in the wind power sector [2] - Carbon fiber demand is slowly recovering, with growth expected in downstream sectors such as wind power and hydrogen bottles [2] Summary by Sections Cement Industry Tracking - As of June 20, 2025, the national cement price index is 362.67 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the previous week, with a total cement output of 2.781 million tons, a decrease of 2.88% [3][16] - The cement market is currently in a phase of "weak reality" and "weak expectations," with potential for weak recovery by the end of Q3 if policies are strengthened or the rainy season ends [16] Glass Industry Tracking - The average price of float glass is 1209.75 yuan/ton, down 1.64% from the previous week, with inventory levels increasing [32] - The market is expected to experience short-term price fluctuations downward, with ongoing challenges in meeting demand during the seasonal downturn [32] Fiberglass Industry Tracking - The price of non-alkali roving has shown a stable decline, with demand for high-end products like wind power yarn performing relatively well [6] - The overall price of fiberglass is expected to maintain a weak and stable trend in the short term [6] Carbon Fiber Industry Tracking - The carbon fiber market price remains stable, with a weekly production of 1781 tons and an operating rate of 60.13% [7] - The industry continues to face losses, with a production cost of 106,500 yuan/ton and a negative gross margin [7] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Beixin Building Materials (Buy), Weixing New Materials (Overweight), and China Jushi (Buy) with respective EPS forecasts for 2024A to 2027E [8]

6月18日，东岳硅材（300821）发布公告称，参股公司山东东岳未来氢能材料股份有限公司（简称"未来 材料"）已完成中国证券监督管理委员会山东监管局的上市辅导验收。未来材料计划在科创板首次公开 发行股票并上市，东岳硅材持有其5.14%的股份。 资料显示，东岳硅材成立于2006年12月，主营业务是有机硅材料的研发、生产和销售。 所属行业：基础化工–化学制品–有机硅 达梦数据：上半年营收预计增长40.63%-45.74% 6月18日，达梦数据（688692）发布公告称，据公司财务部门初步测算，公司1-6月预计实现营业收入 4.95亿-5.13亿元，同比增长40.63%-45.74%。 资料显示，达梦数据成立于2000年11月，主营业务是面向大中型公司、企事业单位、党政机关提供各类 数据库软件及集群软件、云计算与大数据产品、数据库一体机等一系列数据库产品及相关技术服务。 所属行业：计算机–软件开发–垂直应用软件 东岳硅材：参股公司未来材料完成科创板上市辅导验收 海螺新材：拟1.86亿元收购康宁特80%股权及工程公司100%股权 6月18日，海螺新材（000619）发布公告称，控股子公司安徽海螺环境科技有限公司拟以1 ...

相关研究报告 【平安证券】量化行业比较系列报告之一：基于 资本开支周期的 PB-ROE 模型在行业比较运用 *20241105 证券分析师 | 郭子睿 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060520070003 | | | GUOZIRUI807@pingan.com.cn | | 任书康 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060525050001 | | | RENSHUKANG722@pingan.com.cn | | 陈瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060524120003 | | | CHENYAO370@pingan.com.cn | 研究助理 胡心怡 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060124030069 HUXINYI184@pingan.com.cn 高越 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060124070014 GAOYUE384@pingan.com.cn 基金 2025 年 6 月 11 日 量化行业比较系列报告之二： 基于资本开支周期的行业比较与轮动策略 金 报 告 资本开支周期：供给侧视角下的行业比较。资本开支周期是中国行业周期的 主导驱动力，资 ...