新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 1、战略资源品背后大逻辑，十月底是关键时间点 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、战略资源品背后大逻辑，十月底是关键时间点 2、老登资产今天依旧灰头土脸，十月主线在哪里？ 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 这一政策是极具分量的反制手段。过去，美国常以高端芯片技术卡我们脖子；如今，在先进制程芯片领 域，我们反向拿捏对方命门，针锋相对地"秀肌肉"。受此影响，稀土板块今日整体涨幅接近8%。不仅 如此，今天所有战略资源品涨幅均十分可观，整体接近8%，涵盖稀土、核能发电所需的铀矿资源，以 及新能源所用的能源金属（代表为锂矿），多只龙头股涨停。 由此可见，目前不能把稀土简单视为事件驱动型品种；它昭示着在国与国博弈中，战略资源品正被日 益"工具化"，这一趋势短期内难以消解。 截至10月底的这几周，该趋势还可能加剧强化：10月底中美及中国与东亚主要国家或有最高层会晤，恰 逢韩国APEC峰会。峰会将成为巨大博弈现场，元首会谈前双方提前摆筹码、秀肌肉，将集中呈现。在 此大背景下，关键战略资源品更 ...

无独有偶，世界核协会近日发布最新报告指出，去年全球核能发电量同比增长2.5%至2667太瓦时，打 破2006年2660太瓦时的纪录，创下单年发电量历史新高。全球范围内，核电发展势头日益增强，特别是 受到小型模块化反应堆技术加速部署推动，铀需求前景颇为积极。然而，随着现有矿山在未来10年面临 资源枯竭，铀供应缺口隐现，可能将拖累核电复兴。 核电装机量持续增长 国际原子能机构总干事拉斐尔·马里亚诺·格罗西表示，当前，全球近40个经济体核电行业处于不同发展 阶段，还有20多个经济体正在探索核电发展。 根据世界核协会《2025世界核能业绩报告》，截至去年底，全球运行中核反应堆共440座，较2023年底 增加3座；全球核电总装机容量398吉瓦，较2023年底392吉瓦增加6吉瓦。去年，全球新开工核反应堆9 座、实现并网7座、永久停运4座。截至去年底，全球在建反应堆总数为62座，较2023年底增加1座。 9月15日至19日，国际原子能机构第69届大会召开，会上发布最新年度报告指出，在低值预测情景中， 到2050年核能发电装机容量将达到561吉瓦；在高值预测情景中，到2050年全球核能发电装机容量将增 至992吉瓦。这是国 ...

Group 1 - The core investment themes for the next five years include technology, metals and mining, passion investments, ASEAN and Chinese markets, and biotechnology [9][30][40] - The technology sector is expected to continue its growth, but current valuations are high [9] - The metals and mining sector may experience explosive growth due to potential metal shortages, particularly in uranium, silver, and platinum [30] - Passion investments, which are assets that do not involve technological iteration and have limited supply, are likely to see significant price increases during periods of innovation [33] - The ASEAN and Chinese markets are projected to prosper, with Chinese innovation capabilities rapidly advancing [36][38] Group 2 - Generative AI is anticipated to be a major source of profit in future society, with its effective compute power increasing exponentially [10][19] - The growth of AI has been exponential, with effective compute power increasing by 100,000 times from 2019 to 2023, and expected to maintain this growth rate until 2028 [13] - The application of generative AI in various industries, such as banking and pharmaceuticals, is expected to create strong business barriers [20] Group 3 - Approximately 80% of jobs are predicted to be completed by intelligent robots by 2050, with significant advancements in physical AI and reasoning AI [22][29] - The cost of producing robots is significantly lower than the cost of training a human worker, leading to a potential shift in labor dynamics [28] - The emergence of personal AI and innovative AI is expected to reshape various sectors, including education and software development [24][25] Group 4 - The biotechnology sector is currently undervalued compared to the AI sector, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 10-11 times for international biotech ETFs [40] - AI is significantly reducing research and development costs in biotechnology, leading to a rapid increase in the discovery of new molecules [42] - The sector is expected to see a surge in new products, including cancer vaccines and personalized medical services [42] Group 5 - The Asian markets, particularly China, are showing significant potential for growth due to their innovation capabilities and favorable economic conditions [36][38] - The current valuation of the Chinese stock market is below historical averages, indicating potential for significant upward movement [38] - The influx of capital from bank deposits into the stock market is expected to drive a strong rebound in Chinese equities [37]

尽管西方国家，包括美国和欧洲，通过制裁、设定油价上限、冻结个人资产等手段，力图削弱俄罗斯通 过能源收入资助战争的能力，但效果却远未达到预期。造成这种局面的主要原因有两个： 问题还不止于此。欧盟内部，匈牙利长期利用否决权，阻碍了制裁的持续推进。一位欧洲能源界的资深 人士表示，欧盟27个成员国很难在短期内达成一致，可能要等到2027年后才能实现真正的突破。与此同 时，乌克兰也在通过加强无人机空袭俄罗斯炼油厂来打击其能源生产。虽然这些空袭在过去几个月达到 了高潮，导致一些炼油厂着火，但专家认为，俄罗斯炼油产能的短期瘫痪对整个局势的影响有限。尽管 这会让俄罗斯军方和民众生活更困难，但不足以致使克里姆林宫的财政大幅缩水。 这些困境的根源，最终还是指向了美国。特朗普在其第二任期内，曾通过制裁威胁普京，甚至有参议院 草拟了一项严厉的法案，旨在直接打击俄罗斯通过石油出口获取的资金。但尽管有过峰会讨论，且俄罗 此外，俄罗斯石油的最大买家之一中国，其在全球贸易中的影响力远超印度。中国不仅拥有庞大的军力 和核武库，还能在全球贸易谈判中施加巨大影响力。与此同时，俄罗斯也在推进与中国的天然气进口交 易，这被普遍认为是削弱欧盟制裁效应、 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index slightly declined by 8 points or 0.03%, closing at 438 points on September 16, 2025[1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.6%, closing at 6,077 points[1] - Market turnover was recorded at HKD 294.1 billion, with a net outflow of HKD 3.18 billion from the Hong Kong Stock Connect[1] Economic Indicators - Investor sentiment is cautious, awaiting the outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting[1] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's potential rate cut is anticipated to have limited impact on Hong Kong stocks due to already high valuations[2] - Sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as AI, robotics, semiconductors, and real estate, may benefit more directly from monetary policy changes[2] Sector Performance - The automotive parts sector saw a significant rise, with Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK) increasing by 12.8%[3] - The pharmaceutical sector experienced minor declines, with a focus on innovative drugs and leading CXO companies[3] - The renewable energy sector showed mixed performance, with solar stocks generally rising, such as Xinyi Solar (968 HK) up by 2.1%[4] Company Insights - Chaoyun Group (6601 HK) reported a 7.2% increase in revenue to RMB 1.34 billion, with pet category revenue doubling to RMB 96 million, a growth of 101.4%[5][6] - The overall gross margin improved by 2.9 percentage points to 49.3%[5] - The company plans to expand its offline pet store count to 200 by 2027 and is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 80%[8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on technology leaders and sectors benefiting from industrial upgrades, such as semiconductors and AI, amidst market volatility[9] - The anticipated rate cut by the Fed is expected to attract foreign capital back to Hong Kong stocks, with a focus on sectors showing strong earnings certainty[9]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. plans to expand its strategic uranium reserves in response to anticipated rapid growth in nuclear energy, while moving away from reliance on Russian enriched uranium [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Nuclear Energy Strategy - The U.S. aims to eliminate dependence on Russian nuclear fuel as a core part of its energy strategy, with legislation signed by former President Biden requiring utilities to stop using Russian uranium by 2028 [3]. - Currently, Russia supplies about 25% of the enriched uranium for 94 U.S. nuclear reactors, which generate one-fifth of the country's electricity [1]. Group 2: Domestic Uranium Supply and Infrastructure - The U.S. has limited uranium enrichment capabilities, with only two major facilities: one in New Mexico serving traditional reactors and another in Ohio producing higher-enriched fuel for advanced reactors [4]. - The Biden administration is accelerating the deployment of advanced nuclear technologies, with the first models of small modular reactors expected to enter testing next year [4][5]. Group 3: Strategic Reserve Levels - The current strategic uranium reserve levels in the U.S. are significantly lower than those of other major nuclear power countries, with U.S. companies holding an average of only 14 months of uranium inventory compared to 2.5 years in the EU and 12 years in China [6]. - The strategic uranium reserve plan was initially proposed in 2020 with a request for $150 million, but only half was approved by Congress. The urgency of expanding reserves has increased with recent developments [6]. Group 4: Private Sector Investment and International Cooperation - The U.S. government is encouraging private sector investment and international collaboration to expedite the rebuilding of the uranium supply chain, citing examples like General Matter's involvement [7]. - Centrus Energy recently signed a memorandum of understanding with South Korea's KHNP and POSCO to explore potential investments in its Ohio enrichment facility, highlighting the deepening U.S.-Korea partnership in civilian nuclear energy [7].

Core Insights - Uranium Royalty Corp. (NASDAQ: UROY) has garnered significant interest from hedge funds, positioning itself as one of the top uranium stocks to consider for investment [1] Group 1: Equity Program Renewal - On August 20, 2025, Uranium Royalty Corp. renewed its at-the-market (ATM) equity program, allowing the sale of up to $54 million in common shares [2] - The proceeds from this program will be utilized to acquire additional royalties, streams, and physical uranium holdings, as well as to meet working capital needs [2][3] - The program is managed by a syndicate of agents including BMO Capital Markets, Canaccord Genuity, and Raymond James, and will take effect upon the filing of a prospectus supplement in Canada and the U.S. [3] Group 2: Company Overview - Uranium Royalty Corp. is recognized as the world's only uranium-focused royalty and streaming company, providing investors with exposure to uranium prices through various financial instruments [4] - The company aims to expand its uranium portfolio while maintaining balance sheet strength to support the global transition to clean energy [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that China has made significant breakthroughs in mineral exploration during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with nearly 450 billion yuan invested in the initiative [1][2] - Major discoveries include 10 large oil fields and 19 large gas fields, with over 300 billion cubic meters of geological reserves added in the Ordos Basin alone, nearly matching the total added in the past decade [1] - Significant breakthroughs in uranium mining have been achieved, particularly with the discovery of two super-large uranium mines in Gansu and Heilongjiang, strengthening the resource base of five large uranium mining areas [1] Group 2 - Strategic emerging industries have also seen major breakthroughs in mineral exploration, particularly in lithium mining, which is crucial for electric vehicles [2] - China has identified an "Asian lithium belt" spanning 2,800 kilometers across four provinces, with multiple large and super-large lithium mines discovered [2] - Technological advancements have enabled the extraction of helium from natural gas, marking a significant shift from reliance on imports to domestic production [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global uranium market is undergoing significant changes due to a substantial increase in demand driven by the expansion of nuclear power, with projections indicating a 33% rise in uranium demand by 2030 and a potential supply gap due to depleting existing mines [2][4][5]. Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The World Nuclear Association forecasts that uranium demand will rise to 86,000 tons by 2030 and reach 150,000 tons by 2040, while existing uranium mines are expected to face depletion, leading to a potential 50% reduction in global uranium production [4][5]. - The current spot price of uranium has surged from $30 per pound in 2020 to around $80 per pound, with a peak exceeding $100 per pound, reflecting a significant supply-demand imbalance [2][7]. - The demand for nuclear energy is being bolstered by geopolitical factors, such as the desire of European countries to reduce dependence on Russian gas, and the increasing energy needs driven by the growth of data centers and electric vehicles [5][6]. Group 2: Market Trends and Future Outlook - Major players like Sprott's Physical Uranium Trust are actively purchasing uranium, having raised $200 million for this purpose, which is further driving up spot demand [7]. - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and Citigroup predict a bullish outlook for uranium prices, with expectations of reaching $87 per pound by Q4 2025 and potentially $100 per pound by 2026, supported by stable demand and supply challenges [8]. - The development of small modular reactors (SMRs) is anticipated to account for 20% of total uranium demand by 2040, adding another layer of complexity to the market dynamics [8].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.9% to 25,829 points, gaining nearly 500 points and approaching the 26,000 mark[1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 3.1%, closing at 5,825 points[1] - Market turnover reached HKD 369.6 billion, indicating strong bullish sentiment[1] Sector Highlights - Major technology stocks led the market rally, with Baidu and NetEase both rising over 6%, while Alibaba and Kuaishou gained over 5%[1] - Real estate stocks performed strongly due to new policies in Shanghai aimed at optimizing purchasing limits and credit, boosting market confidence[1] - The automotive sector saw a significant rise, with Dongfeng Group's stock increasing by 54% following a restructuring announcement[4] Economic Indicators - New home sales in 30 major cities fell by 12.9% year-on-year, indicating a continued decline in the real estate market[3] - The average coal price dropped by 15.3% to HKD 149 per ton, impacting the coal sector's profitability[10] Policy and Market Outlook - The market is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, supportive policies, and strong earnings, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors[2] - The Hang Seng Index's price-to-earnings ratio has recovered to nearly the 80th percentile of the past seven years, suggesting potential for further gains[2] Company Performance - WuXi Biologics reported a 16.1% increase in revenue to RMB 9.95 billion, with a 56.0% rise in net profit, driven by strong demand for antibody-drug conjugates[7] - Yancoal Australia saw a 61.2% decline in net profit to AUD 16 million, attributed to lower coal prices and logistical challenges[10]