2025.12.29-12.31 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在强势上涨阶段，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格上涨由货币宽松预期与地缘避险共同驱动。美联储降息前 景压低实际利率，增强黄金吸引力，而美委局势等地缘风险则提供脉冲 支撑。资金面上，全球央行持续购金与国内黄金ETF规模创新高，形成 需求共振。技术上，金价突破前高，显强势。短期需警惕风险：金价年 内涨幅大，存在获利了结压力；且若美国经济数据强劲或地缘局势缓和， 可能削弱上涨动能。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 沪金合约2602谨慎看多，上方压力位985－1000元/克，下方支撑 位935－950元/克，建议逢低买入。 本周策略建议 [图片] 沪金合约2604短期谨慎看多，上方压力位1011－1026元/克，下方 支撑位988－1000元/克，建议逢低买入，注意元旦假期风险。 品种诊断情况 | 黄金(au) v 品种诊断 机构观点 | | 盈利 ...

年末贵金属市场再迎"爆点"，铂金、钯金组成的"铂族兄弟"强势领跑，期现价格同步刷新历史新高，首饰市场价格水涨船高，广州期货交易所随即出台交 易限额措施，为市场热度降温。 期现市场同步爆发 价格涨幅震撼市场 12月18日，国内铂族金属市场迎来全面爆发。广期所铂期货主力合约（PT2606）全天单边上行，盘中最高触及549.9元/克，收盘报542.6元/克，单日涨幅 达5.32%；钯期货表现更为强劲，主力合约（PD2606）报收476.6元/克，涨幅6.99%，钯2608、2610等多个合约尾盘强势封板，两大品种成交量同步显著放 大。 国际市场上，铂族金属同样涨势凌厉。NYMEX铂金最高价触及1995.6美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅高达114%，仅次于白银；NYMEX钯金最高价攀升至1787 美元/盎司，年内涨幅约85%，双双创下阶段性新高。 首饰市场随即跟进，六福珠宝等品牌官网显示，足铂999价格已突破800元/克大关，达到每克815元；作为国内珠宝批发市场风向标，深圳水贝市场的铂金 饰品克价涨至470元左右，较今年6月的300元/克左右涨幅超56%。数据显示，现货铂金年内累计涨幅接近90%，大幅超越同期黄金约65% ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil futures prices rose significantly on June 12 and 13, 2025, with the WTI July crude oil futures up 4.88% on the 12th, closing at $68.15 per barrel, and domestic crude oil futures hitting the daily limit on the 13th. Geopolitical tensions, supply - demand imbalances, and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations contributed to the price increase. The subsequent rise in crude oil prices may push up inflation and increase downstream enterprise costs [3]. - For stock index futures, next week's market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - Gold is still bullish, and it's only a matter of time to reach a new high. A low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. - Iron ore is a strong variety in the black series, but it has been rising weakly recently and should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. - Glass should be viewed with a short - term volatile mindset, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17][18]. - Urea prices are in a weak adjustment. When reaching the previous support area, short - position holders should be wary of a strong rebound from the long side [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures - On June 12 and 13, 2025, crude oil futures prices rose significantly. Geopolitical tensions, such as the uncertainty of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and threats of conflict, led to concerns about supply disruptions. From the supply - demand perspective, the peak travel season in the US and the peak power - consumption season in the Middle East increased demand, while the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.6 million barrels last week. Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations also boosted prices. The price increase may push up inflation and increase downstream costs [3]. Stock Index Futures - After Israel attacked Iran, the three major A - share indexes opened lower and closed with a mid -阴线, with a slight rebound at the end. Next week, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [6][7]. Gold - Due to Israel's surprise attack on Iran, geopolitical risks increased. The overseas gold market is approaching a new high, and Shanghai gold, although relatively weak, is also rising. Gold is still bullish, and reaching a new high is just a matter of time. A low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. Iron Ore - At the end of the quarter, mines are still ramping up shipments, and iron - water production is seasonally weak, increasing the over - valuation risk of iron ore. However, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market. It is a strong variety in the black series, but has been rising weakly recently and should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. Glass - There has been no significant cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation. The market should be viewed with a short - term volatile mindset, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17][18]. Urea - The domestic daily urea production is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and downstream players are less involved. Urea prices are in a weak adjustment. When reaching the previous support area, short - position holders should be wary of a strong rebound from the long side [21].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On June 12, 2025, crude oil futures rose significantly, with the WTI July crude oil futures up 4.88% to $68.15 per barrel. The rise was due to geopolitical tensions, increased demand, and positive progress in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations. The price increase may push up inflation and raise downstream costs, and continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, OPEC+ policies, and global economic trends [3]. - A-share market: After opening lower in the morning, the three major A-share indexes quickly rebounded and then fluctuated sideways, closing flat. With limited news except for the Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [6][7]. - Gold: Currently in a volatile pattern that is difficult to change in the short term, but still bullish in the long term. It is advisable to buy on dips rather than chase the rise [10][11]. - Iron ore: There is a risk of overvaluation due to weak demand, but the continuous decline in port inventories supports the market. It is still a strong variety in the black series. Technically, the support below is effective, but it has been rising weakly recently, so it should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. - Glass: The supply side has not seen significant losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are still high, and downstream demand has not increased significantly. It is necessary to wait for the effects of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it declined slightly today, and a short - term volatile view is adopted [17][18]. - Urea: The domestic daily urea output is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and the price continues to adjust weakly. When it reaches the previous support area, short - position profits are realized, and a strong rebound from the long side should be watched out for [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures - On June 12, 2025, WTI 7 - month crude oil futures rose 4.88% to $68.15 per barrel [3]. - Reasons for the rise: geopolitical tensions (uncertainty in US - Iran nuclear negotiations), increased demand (US summer travel peak and Middle - East summer electricity - consumption peak), and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [3]. - Impact: may push up inflation and increase downstream costs, and continuous attention is needed on geopolitical situations, OPEC+ policies, and global economic trends [3]. A - share Market - The three major A - share indexes opened lower, rebounded quickly, and then fluctuated sideways, closing flat [7]. - With limited news except for the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting, the market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations [6]. Gold - Currently in a volatile pattern, difficult to change in the short term, but bullish in the long term [11]. - Operation strategy: buy on dips rather than chase the rise [10]. Iron Ore - There is a risk of overvaluation due to weak demand, but port inventory decline supports the market [14][15]. - Technically, the support below is effective, but the recent rise is weak, so it is a volatile market [14]. Glass - Supply side: no significant losses and cold repairs, high factory inventories [18]. - Demand side: downstream demand has not increased significantly, waiting for real estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17][18]. - Technically, it declined slightly today, and a short - term volatile view is adopted [17]. Urea - Supply: domestic daily output is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23% [21]. - Demand: agricultural demand progress is slow, and downstream follow - up is limited, so the price continues to adjust weakly [21]. - Strategy: when it reaches the previous support area, short - position profits are realized, and a strong rebound from the long side should be watched out for [21].