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金信期货日刊-20250616
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 02:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil futures prices rose significantly on June 12 and 13, 2025, with the WTI July crude oil futures up 4.88% on the 12th, closing at $68.15 per barrel, and domestic crude oil futures hitting the daily limit on the 13th. Geopolitical tensions, supply - demand imbalances, and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations contributed to the price increase. The subsequent rise in crude oil prices may push up inflation and increase downstream enterprise costs [3]. - For stock index futures, next week's market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - Gold is still bullish, and it's only a matter of time to reach a new high. A low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. - Iron ore is a strong variety in the black series, but it has been rising weakly recently and should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. - Glass should be viewed with a short - term volatile mindset, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17][18]. - Urea prices are in a weak adjustment. When reaching the previous support area, short - position holders should be wary of a strong rebound from the long side [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures - On June 12 and 13, 2025, crude oil futures prices rose significantly. Geopolitical tensions, such as the uncertainty of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and threats of conflict, led to concerns about supply disruptions. From the supply - demand perspective, the peak travel season in the US and the peak power - consumption season in the Middle East increased demand, while the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.6 million barrels last week. Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations also boosted prices. The price increase may push up inflation and increase downstream costs [3]. Stock Index Futures - After Israel attacked Iran, the three major A - share indexes opened lower and closed with a mid -阴线, with a slight rebound at the end. Next week, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [6][7]. Gold - Due to Israel's surprise attack on Iran, geopolitical risks increased. The overseas gold market is approaching a new high, and Shanghai gold, although relatively weak, is also rising. Gold is still bullish, and reaching a new high is just a matter of time. A low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. Iron Ore - At the end of the quarter, mines are still ramping up shipments, and iron - water production is seasonally weak, increasing the over - valuation risk of iron ore. However, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market. It is a strong variety in the black series, but has been rising weakly recently and should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. Glass - There has been no significant cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation. The market should be viewed with a short - term volatile mindset, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17][18]. Urea - The domestic daily urea production is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and downstream players are less involved. Urea prices are in a weak adjustment. When reaching the previous support area, short - position holders should be wary of a strong rebound from the long side [21].
金信期货日刊-20250613
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 23:33
Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On June 12, 2025, crude oil futures rose significantly, with the WTI July crude oil futures up 4.88% to $68.15 per barrel. The rise was due to geopolitical tensions, increased demand, and positive progress in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations. The price increase may push up inflation and raise downstream costs, and continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, OPEC+ policies, and global economic trends [3]. - A-share market: After opening lower in the morning, the three major A-share indexes quickly rebounded and then fluctuated sideways, closing flat. With limited news except for the Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [6][7]. - Gold: Currently in a volatile pattern that is difficult to change in the short term, but still bullish in the long term. It is advisable to buy on dips rather than chase the rise [10][11]. - Iron ore: There is a risk of overvaluation due to weak demand, but the continuous decline in port inventories supports the market. It is still a strong variety in the black series. Technically, the support below is effective, but it has been rising weakly recently, so it should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. - Glass: The supply side has not seen significant losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are still high, and downstream demand has not increased significantly. It is necessary to wait for the effects of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it declined slightly today, and a short - term volatile view is adopted [17][18]. - Urea: The domestic daily urea output is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and the price continues to adjust weakly. When it reaches the previous support area, short - position profits are realized, and a strong rebound from the long side should be watched out for [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures - On June 12, 2025, WTI 7 - month crude oil futures rose 4.88% to $68.15 per barrel [3]. - Reasons for the rise: geopolitical tensions (uncertainty in US - Iran nuclear negotiations), increased demand (US summer travel peak and Middle - East summer electricity - consumption peak), and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [3]. - Impact: may push up inflation and increase downstream costs, and continuous attention is needed on geopolitical situations, OPEC+ policies, and global economic trends [3]. A - share Market - The three major A - share indexes opened lower, rebounded quickly, and then fluctuated sideways, closing flat [7]. - With limited news except for the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting, the market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations [6]. Gold - Currently in a volatile pattern, difficult to change in the short term, but bullish in the long term [11]. - Operation strategy: buy on dips rather than chase the rise [10]. Iron Ore - There is a risk of overvaluation due to weak demand, but port inventory decline supports the market [14][15]. - Technically, the support below is effective, but the recent rise is weak, so it is a volatile market [14]. Glass - Supply side: no significant losses and cold repairs, high factory inventories [18]. - Demand side: downstream demand has not increased significantly, waiting for real estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17][18]. - Technically, it declined slightly today, and a short - term volatile view is adopted [17]. Urea - Supply: domestic daily output is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23% [21]. - Demand: agricultural demand progress is slow, and downstream follow - up is limited, so the price continues to adjust weakly [21]. - Strategy: when it reaches the previous support area, short - position profits are realized, and a strong rebound from the long side should be watched out for [21].